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聚酯数据日报-20250604
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:15
装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-10 2024-08 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2024-06 02 09 01 05 09 02 01 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 20 ...
百利好丨贸易风云搅动市场,黄金价格再起波澜
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 11:09
6月2日,现货黄金跳空高开,重新站上3300美元关口。 上周五,据央视新闻报道,特朗普称6月4日起把进口钢铁关税提高至50%,贸易局势再度发生变化。 当地时间5月30日,美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示,将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。随后,特 朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示,该决定从6月4日起生效。 美国白宫当天在社交媒体上发布公告称,"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响,从下周起,美国进口钢铁 关税将从25%提高至50%。" 特朗普2月10日签署行政命令,宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。当地时间3月12日,特朗普对所有进口至美 国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。 贸易局势的动荡不安,使得市场的避险情绪迅速升温。投资者们纷纷将目光投向黄金这一传统的避险资产,寻求资产的安全港 湾。在此背景下,黄金市场也呈现出不同的走势。 从纽商所黄金期货主力合约的表现来看,5月该合约小幅下跌,跌幅约为0.11%。不过,若将时间轴拉长,今年以来国际金价的 累计涨幅却相当可观,达到了约25.5%。这一数据充分显示出,尽管短期内黄金价格可能会有所波动,但在全球经济不确定 ...
欧美关税,突传大消息!他将访美!欧洲股市率先拉涨
双方将重点就以下议题交换意见:推动乌克兰局势缓和与和平进程、北约在当前国际安全形势下的应对 方式以及美欧之间持续存在的贸易摩擦问题,特别是美国近期提出的提高钢铁与铝产品关税事宜。6月4 日,美国进口钢铝关税从25%提高至50%的政策正式生效。 据了解,这是默茨自5月6日就任德国总理以来首次与特朗普面对面会晤。 两人曾在数年前于纽约有过一次短暂接触。为筹备本次访问,德国外交部长约翰.瓦德富尔已于上周提 前抵达华盛顿,与美国国务卿马尔科.鲁比奥进行会谈。 消息面上,当地时间4日,欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示,当天与美国贸易代表格里尔进行了建设性会 谈。 关于特朗普政府关税谈判问题,塞夫科维奇称,双方正在朝着正确的方向稳步推进。 当地时间6月2日,欧盟委员会新闻发言人表示,欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁和铝关税从25%提高至50%深表 遗憾,这一决定进一步加剧了大西洋两岸的经济不确定性。发言人称谈判仍在继续——双方已同意加快 谈判进程。 此外,还有一则消息值得注意,德国联邦总理弗里德里希.默茨将启程前往美国,展开上任以来首次对 华盛顿的正式访问。按照计划,他将于5日在白宫与美国总统唐纳德.特朗普举行闭门会谈,并出席相关 活动。 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250604
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:06
2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金:假期间俄乌风波再起 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银:跟随反弹 | 2 | | 铜:库存减少,支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝:区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝:小幅反弹 | 6 | | 锡:止跌回升 | 8 | | 镍:短线成本托底,预期偏弱压制 | 10 | | 不锈钢:负反馈与减产博弈,钢价区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 黄金:假期间俄乌风波再起 2 期货研究 白银:跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250604
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:52
2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 | 黄金:假期间俄乌风波再起 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:跟随反弹 | 3 | | 铜:库存减少,支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝:区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝:小幅反弹 | 7 | | 锡:止跌回升 | 9 | | 镍:短线成本托底,预期偏弱压制 | 11 | | 不锈钢:负反馈与减产博弈,钢价区间震荡 | 11 | | 碳酸锂:矿价节后快速回落,锂价走势仍偏弱 | 13 | | 工业硅:盘面底部弱势震荡 | 15 | | 多晶硅:仓单超预期大增,盘面具备下跌驱动 | 15 | | 铁矿石:需求预期羸弱,价格面临下行风险 | 17 | | 螺纹钢:宏观情绪拖累,弱势延续 | 18 | | 热轧卷板:宏观情绪拖累,弱势延续 | 18 | | 硅铁:底部持续下探,弱势震荡 | 20 | | 锰硅:矿端继续承压,弱势震荡 | 20 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦煤:消息扰动,宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 动力煤:底部阶段企稳运行 | 24 | | 原木:震荡偏弱 | 25 | | ...
金价远未止步,全产业链布局——黄金主题行业联合会议
2025-06-04 01:50
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the gold industry, highlighting the current market dynamics and future outlook for gold prices and related companies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Conditions Impacting Gold Prices**: - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with weak PMI data and rising unemployment rates expected to exceed 4.6%, contributing to inflation risks and driving up gold prices [1][3][5]. - Approximately $8 trillion in U.S. bonds will mature between May and July, representing nearly one-third of the circulating market value, which raises credit risk and benefits gold as a safe-haven asset [1][6]. - Uncertainties in international trade negotiations, particularly between the EU and the U.S., and restrictions on imports from China are increasing demand for gold [1][4][7]. 2. **Supply Dynamics**: - In Q1 2025, global gold supply from major mining companies decreased by 5%, with significant declines in production from Chile and Indonesia [1][9][10]. - The ongoing supply upcycle from 2020 to 2024 has ended, leading to downward revisions in production guidance from many overseas gold mining companies [1][10]. 3. **Demand Changes**: - The marginal changes in gold demand are primarily driven by ETF purchases and central bank buying, with Chinese funds contributing the largest incremental demand [1][11]. - The Chinese central bank's gold holdings are significantly lower than those of other countries, indicating substantial room for growth in gold purchases [1][11]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy for gold stocks, particularly focusing on resilient companies like Freeport and retail brands such as Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [2][12]. - The current year is seen as a pivotal moment for gold investments, with institutional holdings being low, suggesting potential for increased buying as market conditions improve [2][12]. 5. **Market Restructuring**: - The rise in gold prices is reshaping the industry landscape, favoring emerging brands with cultural significance, such as Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji, over traditional channel brands [1][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: - The current rise in gold prices is stimulating consumer interest in gold jewelry, with retail performance expected to improve in the second half of the year [1][14]. - New product launches and branding strategies are enhancing consumer engagement, particularly for companies like Changhong High-Tech, which plans to expand its retail presence significantly [1][19]. - **Brand Performance**: - Laopuhuangjin is gaining market share and is expected to continue its growth trajectory, outperforming international jewelry brands [1][20][21]. - Second-tier gold brands are also showing strong potential, with unique advantages in their respective niches and significant room for valuation increases [1][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the gold industry's current state and future prospects.
重生的TA|霸气的“中国屏”:北美没优势,还得指望我们!
新浪财经· 2025-06-04 00:54
Core Viewpoint - The LED display industry in North America lacks a significant supply chain advantage, with over 60% of the market being dominated by a Chinese company, Shanghai Sansi Electronic Engineering Co., Ltd. The company emphasizes that technological barriers and quality accumulation are the ultimate defenses against trade friction [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Sansi Electronic Engineering Co., Ltd. was established in 1993 and specializes in LED displays, LED lighting, smart transportation, smart cities, and system integration solutions, holding over 880 independent intellectual property rights [2]. - The company began its overseas expansion in 2003, exporting products to numerous countries including the USA, Europe, Japan, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa. By 2011, its LED full-color screens had made their debut in Times Square, New York, covering over 12,000 square meters [2]. Group 2: Market Response to Tariffs - Following the announcement of increased tariffs by the U.S. government in April, many foreign trade companies reacted with caution, but Shanghai Sansi reported stable performance in overseas markets, with production lines operating continuously [2][5]. - The company had anticipated uncertainties and began diversifying its market presence, reducing reliance on the North American market, which previously accounted for about 40% of its overseas revenue [5]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Shanghai Sansi has initiated a "Plan B" by planning overseas factories to implement a "China R&D + local service" model, allowing for better market expansion and customer service in target countries [5]. - The company has adopted a "time difference strategy," signing long-term contracts with established clients in North America and Europe for high-value products, enabling them to produce and stock in advance [8]. Group 4: Product Quality and Market Position - The company maintains that its products have significant technological barriers and added value, which are crucial for sustaining its position in international trade. Their high-end products, such as plant growth lights and LED bulbs, are priced about 30% higher than competitors but still rank among the top in their categories due to superior quality [12]. - The company has achieved a repurchase rate of 26% on Amazon for its products, significantly higher than the average of 10% for similar products, indicating strong customer trust [12]. Group 5: Future Growth Strategy - The company aims for a dual growth strategy, targeting a 20% overall growth in overseas markets while also expanding its domestic market presence [14].
美国居民消费与贸易摩擦前景
Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down. In April, the month - on - month growth of US personal consumption expenditure was 0.2%, and the nominal year - on - year growth was 5.4%. The personal savings rate rose to 4.9%. The growth of commodity retail was relatively flat, and the improvement of the year - on - year growth of the Redbook same - store retail index in May was not obvious. If the Trump administration wins the appeal on the tariff issue, its trade policy stance may become stronger [2]. - The producer price index continues to decline. From May 26th to May 31st, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork by the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 0.30% month - on - month and 6.16% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.42% month - on - month and decreased by 5.77% year - on - year. The production material price index decreased by 0.60% month - on - month and 10.46% year - on - year in the week of May 23rd [2]. - From May 1st to May 28th, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 245,000 square meters, slightly lower than the 248,000 square meters in the same period in 2024 [2]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The growth of US personal consumption expenditure has slowed down, and the producer price index continues to decline. There are also data on various high - frequency indicators such as food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, including their month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2][16][17]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - There are comparisons between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [20]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - There are data on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed financial conditions index, and the implied prospects of the US federal funds futures for interest rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest rate hikes/cuts [80][82][84]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - It shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal), producer price index, China's commodity price index, steel price index, 30 large and medium - sized cities' commercial housing trading area, LME copper spot settlement price, Brent crude oil futures settlement price, etc. [91][95][101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - It presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [144][146][148].
端午假期后首个交易日国内商品涨跌互现
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-06-03 18:07
Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results after the Dragon Boat Festival, with significant gains in gold, silver, and crude oil, while declines were noted in butadiene rubber, No. 20 rubber, glass, coking coal, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [1] - The chief non-ferrous analyst from Guosen Futures indicated that short-term volatility in precious metals will increase, necessitating close monitoring of U.S. tariff policies and changes in geopolitical risks [1] - If trade tensions escalate or geopolitical conflicts intensify, COMEX gold could rise to around $3,450 per ounce, while silver may show stronger elasticity due to its industrial properties and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Glass and Silicon Industry Insights - The decline in glass, polysilicon, and industrial silicon prices is attributed to high inventory levels among production companies, leading to significant pressure to reduce prices for sales [1] - The glass industry is experiencing both maintenance and production resumption, with sufficient potential supply capacity that could trigger more production if industry profits improve [1] - Industrial silicon prices have reached new lows, with supply continuing to grow despite the price decline, as production costs in the southwestern region decrease [2] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - On the first trading day after the holiday, A-shares saw all major indices rise, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, and total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke upward on May 6 and has since oscillated within the 3,300 to 3,400 point range, facing upward moving average pressure for major indices [2]
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250603
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 10:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed up collectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks slightly stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period after the introduction of domestic macro - support policies, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2506) latest price is 3824.8, up 4.2; IH (2506) is 2668.6, up 1.4; IC (2506) is 5638.4, up 18.6; IM (2506) is 5998.0, up 40.6. For the next - main contracts, IF (2509) is 3751.8, up 1.4; IH (2509) is 2632.8, up 2.4; IC (2509) is 5455.2, up 12.0; IM (2509) is 5745.0, up 34.6 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1156.2, up 1.0; IC - IF spread is 1813.6, up 8.2; IM - IC spread is 359.6, up 21.4; IC - IH spread is 2969.8, up 9.2; IM - IF spread is 2173.2, up 29.6; IM - IH spread is 3329.4, up 30.6 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: IF quarter - to - month is - 73.0, down 2.6; IH is - 35.8, up 1.8; IC is - 183.2, down 7.4; IM is - 253.0, down 6.8. For the next - quarter - to - month, IF is - 108.8, down 1.6; IH is - 35, up 3.8; IC is - 309.6, down 14.2; IM is - 428.8, down 14.0 [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions are - 28,697.00, down 138.0; IH are - 11,498.00, up 686.0; IC are - 11,705.00, up 1088.0; IM are - 30,786.00, down 1498.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - CSI 300 is 3852.01, up 11.8; SSE 50 is 2687.30, up 8.6; CSI 500 is 5694.84, up 23.8; CSI 1000 is 6070.04, up 43.5. IF basis is - 27.2, down 9.4; IH basis is - 18.7, down 7.2; IC basis is - 56.4, down 13.2; IM basis is - 72.0, down 11.5 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 11,638.30 billion yuan, down 4.16; margin trading balance is 18,009.47 billion yuan, down 84.23; north - bound trading volume is 1526.22 billion yuan, up 147.72; reverse repurchase: expiration is - 8300.0 billion yuan, operation is + 4545.0 billion yuan; main funds are - 496.74 billion yuan, down 95.94; the proportion of rising stocks is 62.64%, up 42.00; Shibor is 1.410%, down 0.061 [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score 6.50, up 3.40; technical aspect scores 6.30, up 4.30; capital aspect scores 6.70, up 2.60 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; comprehensive PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. New export and import order indices rose significantly [2]. - The US will raise steel import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting June 4 [2]. - The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation against China from May 31 to August 31 [2]. - The US accused China of violating the Geneva economic and trade talks consensus, and China firmly rejected the baseless accusation and urged the US to correct its wrong actions [2].