Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that COMEX gold prices are expected to steadily break through $3,300 per ounce, with a potential to reach $3,500 per ounce under extreme risk scenarios [1] - In the third quarter, if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, WTI oil prices may hit $75 per barrel due to transportation bottlenecks and seasonal demand [1] - By the fourth quarter, as demand weakens and OPEC+ resumes supply increases, WTI oil prices are projected to return to around $60 per barrel [1] Group 2 - The report highlights three major uncertainties for the second half of 2025: first, tariff disruptions, where U.S. tariff policies may reshape international order and global power structures, leading to potential re-imposition of tariffs post-agreement [1] - Second, credit reconstruction is noted, with the U.S. debt reaching $36.1 trillion and over 30% of short-term external debt, raising liquidity risks and questioning the dollar's credit system [1] - Third, geopolitical risks are emphasized, particularly with the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, which could lead to increased oil prices and global shipping costs, resulting in new structural re-evaluations of asset prices [1] Group 3 - In terms of global macroeconomic outlook, the report suggests that major economies are experiencing structural deceleration rather than typical recession, with the U.S. economy expected to transition slowly and steadily [2] - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in the second half of 2025, likely in September and December, unless inflation remains resilient or growth data is strong [2]

周度价格高频跟踪方面： 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标延续季节性回落 主要结论：高频指标延续季节性回落。 经济增长方面，本周(6 月 27 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持负值， 指数 B 季节性回落。从分项来看，本周投资领域景气有所回落，消费、房地 产领域景气基本保持不变。从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后下跌 0.14，表现基本持平历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长动能运行稳健。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 7 月 4 日所在 周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 （1）本周食品价格小幅下跌，非食品价格上涨。预计 6 月 CPI 食品价格环 比约为-0.5%，非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为-0.1%，CPI 同比 小幅回升至零。 （2）6 月上旬流通领域生产资料价格定基指数继续下跌，中旬止跌回升。预 计 6 月 PPI 环比约为-0.3%，PPI 同比回落至-3.4%。 风险提示：海外市场动荡，存在不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观 ...

Group 1 - The policy governance goal has shifted from "Six Stabilities" to "Four Stabilities," focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, reflecting changes in the economic environment and governance thinking [1][15][17] - The emphasis on employment remains unchanged, with a record high of over 17.7 million new urban labor force and 12.22 million college graduates this year, highlighting the importance of job stability for consumer confidence and investment [1][15][18] - The integration of previously scattered policies into a more systematic approach allows for more precise interventions in the economy, focusing on the micro-foundations of economic operation [1][16][17] Group 2 - In the first quarter, China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.4%, driven by export "grab" effects, early issuance of local bonds for infrastructure investment, and the "new three items" investment boom [2][18][21] - The sustainability of these driving factors and the emergence of new growth momentum will significantly impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year [2][18][19] - The second quarter serves as a critical observation period for the effects of previous policies and the transition to subsequent policies, which will shape the economic trajectory [2][18][19] Group 3 - Exports have shown resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6% from January to May 2025, supported by increased non-U.S. exports and the "grab export" effect [3][21] - The "grab export" effect is expected to weaken, as the space for further "price-for-volume" strategies in U.S. exports diminishes [6][21][36] - The trade dynamics are influenced by ongoing U.S.-China tariff policies, with companies adjusting their strategies in response to changing tariffs [6][20][45] Group 4 - Consumer spending and investment have been stimulated by policies, with retail sales showing a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5% in the first five months of 2025 [4][23][27] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy and large-scale equipment updates have significantly contributed to this growth, with substantial government support for these initiatives [4][23][26] - Infrastructure investment has been bolstered by early local bond issuance, with a historic increase in special bonds and local government debt planned for 2025 [4][27] Group 5 - Economic internal dynamics show signs of weakness, particularly in major cities where consumer spending has declined, indicating a potential challenge for future growth [5][29][33] - Fixed asset investment growth has been uneven, with manufacturing and infrastructure performing well, while real estate investment continues to decline [5][31][33] - Price levels reflect ongoing demand issues, with CPI and PPI showing negative growth, indicating persistent economic challenges [5][33][36] Group 6 - The second half of 2025 may face significant pressures, including the impact of export uncertainties and the diminishing effects of stimulus policies [6][36][42] - Employment stability is under pressure, with a record number of college graduates entering the job market and potential job losses in export-oriented small and medium enterprises [7][43][46] - The interplay between employment stability and other economic factors such as enterprise stability, market stability, and expectations will be crucial for economic resilience [7][43][46]

会议分析了国内外经济金融形势，提出当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒 增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化，通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济呈现向好态 势，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展扎实推进，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行、风险隐患 较多等困难和挑战。要实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和 结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，保持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议加大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控前瞻性、针对 性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。保持流 动性充裕，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格 总水平预期目标相匹配。强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自 律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督。推动社会综合融资成本下降。从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债 市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化。畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率，防范资金空转。增 强外汇市场韧性，稳定市场预期， ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250628 指数突破新高后，市场怎么走？ 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 近期市场呈现三大现象 现象一：沪指"三连阳"创年内新高后，资金急于寻找理由，但找到的理 由似乎都不足以解释这轮上涨。 现象二：上周（6/16-6/20，下同）路演交流中，明显感受到机构投资者偏 谨慎，港股部分本土及海外资金在今年新消费和医药行情中都有踏空。 现象三：情绪急剧反转，"三根阳线改变信仰"。上周投资者倾向落袋为安， 待回调再介入，但市场快速上涨后又转为乐观。 ◼ 核心解释框架：波动率的回归交易 怎么去解释近期市场的这三大现象？投资者们总是习惯于在市场上涨后， 从基本面中寻找能够解释走势的原因，然而这些原因似乎又都不够充分， 不足以支撑起股市的上行。事实上，真正导致本轮上涨的，是大家普遍低 估的一个要素——波动率。我们认为，本周（6/23-6/27，下同）沪指的"三 连阳"，本质上是波动率回归交易的结果。周一收盘时，上证指数 30 个交 易日的年化波动率降至 18.2%，创下近十年来新低，甚至低于 2018 年。市 场极端低波的状态，才是本轮 ...

Core Insights - Despite facing uncertainties from trade tensions and market expectations, China's industrial enterprises above designated size maintained a stable and positive development trend in the first five months of the year, particularly in the aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries, which are entering a rapid growth phase [1][2] Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to January-April, but a year-on-year decline of 1.1% due to insufficient effective demand and falling industrial product prices [1][2] - The gross profit of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits [1] - Revenue from industrial enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a sustained growth trend that creates favorable conditions for future profit recovery [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Performance - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries saw significant profit growth, with profits in the railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors increasing by 56.0% year-on-year [2] - Profits in aircraft manufacturing and spacecraft and rocket manufacturing grew by 120.7% and 28.6%, respectively, while related equipment manufacturing profits rose by 68.1% [2] - The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing sector experienced an 85.0% profit increase, with metal ship manufacturing profits soaring by 111.8% [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Financing - The decline in profit growth for industrial enterprises indicates ongoing constraints from insufficient effective demand, necessitating more proactive macroeconomic policies and increased government investment in public goods [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued loans in May was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, highlighting the need to boost effective financing demand [3] - The central bank's recent interest rate cut is expected to lower loan market rates, reducing the financial burden on industrial enterprises and aiding their recovery [3] Group 4: Policy Implementation and Sector Growth - Various regions and departments have intensified efforts to implement "two new" policies, effectively releasing domestic demand [4] - Profits in general and specialized equipment industries grew by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant effects, with profits in smart consumer device manufacturing and other household electrical appliance manufacturing increasing by 101.5% and 31.2%, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of balancing total supply and total demand, enhancing macro policy coordination, and implementing both stock and incremental policies to stimulate economic recovery and growth [1] Group 1 - The meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee highlighted the need to strengthen domestic circulation as a priority [1] - There is a focus on fully utilizing existing policies and increasing the implementation of new policies to maximize their effects [1] - The aim is to expand domestic demand, stabilize expectations, and invigorate economic activity to promote sustained economic recovery [1]

铝类市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 宏观预期VS淡季影响，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.56%，报20580元/吨。氧化铝低位反弹，周涨跌+3.32%，报2986元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存有所回落，整体仍较充足；几内亚供给扰动事件有所缓和，但受雨季影 响雨季发运量或有所收减，铝土矿报价暂稳运行。供给方面，氧化铝国内供给量仍显宽松，进口大幅增加，国内在产 产能亦维持高位运行。需求方面，国内电解铝在产产能持稳运行，由于氧化铝原料供应偏宽松，冶炼厂库存预计相对 充足，生产情况稳定，对氧化铝需求亦保持相对稳定。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于，供给偏多、需求持稳的阶段， 铝土矿价格稳定为氧化铝提供部分成本支撑。 电解铝：基本面供给端，国内电 ...

2025 年 6 月 27 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铜、铝、锌、工业硅、多晶 硅、碳酸锂、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、纯碱、PVC 期货将偏 强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3928 和 3964 点，支撑位 3889 和 3872 点；IH2509 阻力位 2728 和 2750 点，支撑位 2697 和 2682 点；IC2509 阻力位 5771 和 5838 点，支撑位 5690 和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Palladium prices are gaining attention in the precious metals market, with expectations of breaking the 300 yuan/gram barrier amid significant increases in gold and platinum prices. However, achieving this goal requires careful consideration of supply-demand dynamics, industry changes, macroeconomic conditions, and capital flows [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The palladium market is at a critical juncture between traditional demand and emerging sectors. While traditional automotive demand remains dominant, it faces challenges from the shift towards electrification. Global sales of fuel vehicles are declining, but the rise of hybrid vehicles (HEV/PHEV) supports palladium demand, as they require three times more palladium than pure electric vehicles. Additionally, the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is accelerating, with each vehicle requiring 50-100 grams of palladium catalyst, potentially leading to a new growth point for palladium demand [1][3]. Supply Challenges - The palladium market faces significant supply challenges, with over 75% of global production concentrated in Russia and South Africa. Geopolitical risks and power crises are affecting these major producing countries. Western sanctions have limited palladium exports from Russia, while South Africa is experiencing frequent production cuts due to electricity shortages. Although recycling technology has improved, accounting for 15%-20% of total demand, it cannot fully compensate for the shortfall in primary mine supply [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent price increases in palladium are driven by market sentiment, influenced by the recovery of the automotive industry, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and supply chain restructuring. Global fuel vehicle sales rose by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, breaking a three-year decline. Major automakers like Tesla and Volkswagen are accelerating their hybrid vehicle strategies, further boosting palladium demand. Additionally, production cuts in Russia and South Africa due to geopolitical tensions and extreme weather have led to the lowest visible global palladium inventory in nearly a decade, raising concerns about supply shortages [3][5]. Capital Flows - Palladium is becoming a key choice for capital seeking safe-haven assets due to its industrial and financial attributes. In the context of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies causing divergence in the precious metals sector, palladium prices have risen against the trend. The A-share precious metals sector has seen significant net inflows into leading stocks, indicating strong market interest in palladium [5]. Technical Analysis and Price Trends - Technically, palladium prices are expected to maintain a short-term strong oscillation trend. Domestic palladium prices are fluctuating in the range of 272-274 yuan/gram, with an average price of 273 yuan/gram, up by 2 yuan from the previous day. International palladium prices have also risen, with spot palladium increasing by 8.00%, reaching a peak of 1149.99 USD/ounce. However, to break the 300 yuan/gram barrier, palladium must overcome several resistance levels, particularly at 250 yuan/gram and 265 yuan/gram [5]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of palladium prices will depend on several key variables, including the stability of fuel vehicle sales and the continued increase in the share of hybrid vehicles, which are crucial for supporting traditional palladium demand. The acceleration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle commercialization will also drive demand growth in emerging sectors. Furthermore, the stability of supply and advancements in palladium recycling technology will significantly impact palladium prices [7].