数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，短期产能利用率有望逐步回升。br2506合约短线建议在11000-11800区间交易。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) -5 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11370 | 24034 | -1070 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Forecasts suggest the US soybean - producing regions will be dry in the next two weeks, which is expected to facilitate sowing. Brazilian soybean premiums are weak, with far - month contracts relatively firm. In China, a large amount of soybeans are expected to arrive in the second quarter. Domestic oil mills are expected to gradually resume crushing after the May Day holiday, leading to a stock - building cycle for soybean meal. As the pressure on spot supply increases, the basis is expected to continue to adjust. The futures market is expected to remain range - bound and weak in the short term, awaiting further release of spot pressure [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on May 7th: in Dalian it was 530 with a 65 increase; in Tianjin 380 with a 115 increase; in日照 it was 200 with a 35 decrease; in张家港 280 with a 5 decrease; in Dongguan 380 with a 65 increase; in Zhanjiang 380 with a 5 decrease; in Fangcheng 360 with a 25 increase. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 114 with a 17 decrease [4] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 849 with a 70 increase, and the futures spread of the main contract was 355 with a 12 decrease. The N9 - 1 spread was - 41 with an 8 increase, and the RM9 - 1 spread was 1200 with a 220 increase [5] 3.3 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1761 with a 10 decrease. The soybean CNF premium was 213.00 cents per bushel. The futures crushing profit was 137 yuan per ton. Regarding inventory, data on national major oil mills' soybean inventory, Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were presented, along with trends in national major oil mills' operating rates and soybean crushing volumes [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to continuous supply - side pressure and the possibility of further easing of geopolitical risks, increasing market concerns about a loose supply - demand pattern. After a short - term rebound, oil prices will continue to be under pressure and mainly fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. The suggested fluctuation ranges are [57, 67] for WTI, [59, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the futures price follows the fundamentals. The early arrival of the agricultural fertilizer - preparation peak season and industrial orders provide certain support, and the delayed resumption of maintenance devices supports the supply in the short - term. If the export policy is relaxed beyond expectations, the upside space of the futures price will expand. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy volatility on the options side [30][32]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price stopped falling and rebounded, but the weak supply - demand structure has not changed. The styrene market rose and then fell, with port inventories continuing to decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. It is recommended to short styrene at high levels [35][38]. Methanol - The inland methanol price is stable, but there is downward pressure on valuation. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high levels [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels. In the short - term, wait and see the short - term rebound. For PVC, the supply - demand surplus is obvious, and it is recommended to short at high levels, but beware of price rebounds due to policy stimuli [46][51]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but beware of a significant decline in demand. It is recommended to hold short positions until the price reaches a low level. For PP, the supply pressure eases slightly in the second - quarter maintenance season, but the long - term outlook is weak, with a downward risk [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, it is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with the PX09 fluctuating in the 6000 - 6400 range. For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, and the TA09 is expected to fluctuate in the 4200 - 4500 range. For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the EG09 in the 4050 - 4300 range. For short - fiber, follow the raw materials and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee of PF06. For bottle - chips, the absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is supported to some extent [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil was at $61.08 on February 8th and $61.12 on May 7th, with a decline of $0.04 (- 0.07%); WTI was at $58.07 on both dates. The spreads of various crude oil varieties also changed to different degrees [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending May 2, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value. Refinery utilization rate was 89%. There were changes in inventory, production, import, and export data of various oil products [5]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures contract prices showed different changes, with the 01 - 05 contract spread decreasing by 8.26%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.44%, and the factory - inventory decreased by 10.58% on a weekly basis [30][32]. Styrene - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw material prices changed. Pure benzene prices rose, and the import profit was - 163.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices rose, and the EB2506 increased by 1.5%. The port inventory of styrene decreased by 7.0% [36][38]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Futures contract prices increased, and the MA2505 - 2509 spread increased by 7.25%. The port - inland regional spread increased. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The enterprise inventory increased by 7.26%, and the port inventory increased by 2.69%. The upstream and downstream operating rates showed different changes [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot had small changes. The SH2505 increased by 2.0%, and the V2505 increased by 0.7%. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends [46][49][50]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PE and PP futures contracts increased slightly. The L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 10.70%. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 21.31%, and PP enterprise inventory increased by 19.76%. The operating rates of PE and PP showed different changes [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Downstream polyester product prices such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased. PX - related prices and spreads also changed. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: MEG port inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed to different degrees [58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with supply increasing, foreign spot prices rising, domestic inventories starting to increase, and tire operating rates rebounding [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are rebounding. The overall assessment is neutral [6]. - The spot price is 14700 with a basis of - 110, which is bearish [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, which is neutral [6]. - The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on May 7 [10]. 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory is seasonally increasing [16]. - The inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently [19]. 3.2.3 Import - The import volume has rebounded [22]. 3.2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding [25][28]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [31]. - Tire industry exports reached a new high in the same period [34]. 3.3 Multi - empty Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The domestic economy is gradually recovering [8]. - Downstream consumption is at a high level [8]. - Raw material prices are relatively strong [8]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [8]. - Market inventories are increasing [8]. - The external environment is bearish [8]. 3.4 Basis - The basis narrowed on May 7 [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The price of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by multiple factors. The short - term price of US soybeans is under pressure due to the trade war and good planting progress, but there is strong support from low valuation, reduced planting area, and expected significant increase in US soybean oil demand. The cost of soybean arrival in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but the trade war and other factors may suppress the price of the soybean series [2][3][5]. - The price of palm oil is affected by factors such as US tariffs, export volume, and production volume. The current production of palm oil has recovered significantly, and the decline pressure of oil and fat is relatively large, but it may be supported if the macro - economy stabilizes [7][8][11]. - The price of sugar is affected by factors such as Brazilian production and domestic and foreign supply and demand. The supply shortage has been alleviated, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [13][14]. - The price of cotton is affected by domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16][17]. - The price of eggs is mainly determined by supply. With the increase in temperature and new production pressure, the upward pressure on egg prices is increasing, and a short - selling strategy is advocated [19][20]. - The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the pressure accumulates due to the increase in weight. A short - selling strategy after the price rebound can be considered under the shock pattern [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: Overnight US soybeans closed down. The sowing progress is higher than in previous years, and the demand side of US soybean oil lacks clear guidance. Some institutions expect the USDA to lower exports in the May monthly report, and the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio increases. The Brazilian soybean premium was stable yesterday, and the arrival cost decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot was stable on Wednesday, with the lowest price in East China at 3,100 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the soybean arrivals in May, June, and July will be 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively, and the inventory of soybean meal and soybeans will increase strongly in the next three months [2]. - **Weather and Cost**: In the next two weeks, there will be more rainfall in the southern part of the US soybean - producing area and sporadic rainfall in the central part, and the planting progress is expected to be normal. Due to high tariffs on US soybeans, China's soybean imports only rely on Brazil, and the Brazilian soybean premium has the motivation to strengthen later. The cost of soybean arrival in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but the trade war may suppress the price of the soybean series [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that soybean meal will be relatively weak compared with US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: ITS and AMSPEC expect the export of Malaysian palm oil to increase by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, and the production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly from May 1 - 5, 2025 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center will significantly suppress the valuation of oils and fats, and the production of palm oil has recovered significantly. The pressure on the decline of oils and fats is relatively large. In the medium term, if the macro - economy stabilizes, oils and fats may be supported [11]. 3.3 Sugar - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated weakly on Wednesday. The closing price of the September contract was 5,868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The spot prices of sugar in various regions also decreased. In the first half of April, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply shortage has been alleviated, and the price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. The price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [14]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose on Wednesday. The closing price of the September contract was 12,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. There are some positive macro - policies [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by domestic macro - policies, the cotton price fluctuates. The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17]. 3.5 Eggs - **Market Situation**: The domestic egg price mainly declined yesterday, with sufficient supply and general downstream digestion speed. It is expected that the egg price will be mostly stable and a few will decline today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply still dominates the current egg price. With the increase in temperature and new production pressure, the upward pressure on egg prices is increasing. A short - selling strategy should be maintained [20]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic live pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with a slight increase in some areas. The slaughter enterprise orders are difficult to increase, and the live pig price is expected to be stable today [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the pressure accumulates due to the increase in weight. A short - selling strategy after the price rebound can be considered under the shock pattern [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fluctuations in GDP data will not fundamentally alter the economic situation faced by the United States [1] - There is a possibility of upward revisions in first-quarter consumer spending and inventory data [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that consumer spending and inventory for the first quarter may be revised upwards, making it more challenging to assess demand in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Powell stated that fluctuations in GDP data will not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's position [1] - The relationship between confidence data and spending has consistently been weak [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：第一季度消费者支出、库存可能会向上修正。 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 铜震荡走高，上涨 1.75%至 9520 美元/吨：SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.84%至 78320 元/吨；国内现货进口小幅盈利。宏观方面，海外方面，美国财政部长贝森特重申，美 | LME | | | | 国财政部正处于"预警轨道"，并重申美国政府永远不会违约，并承诺财政部不会使用 "花招"绕过债务上限。另外， 美国财政部拍卖 420 亿美元 10 年期国债，整体结果稳 | | | | | 健，多个指标健康。国内方面，中国 4 月财新服务业 PMI 50.7，新订单增速放缓，但财 | | | | | 政部部长蓝佛安表示，将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策，有信心实现 2025 年的 5%左右 | | | | 铜 | 增长目标。库存方面，LME 库存下降 1675 吨至 195625 吨；SMM 周二统计全国主流地 | | | | | 区铜库存环比节前减少 0.11 万吨至 12.85 万吨。宏观方面美政府态度持续软化，基本面 | | | | | ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7230 | 7273 | -43 | -0.59% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 6987 | 7083 | -96 | -1.36% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7105 | 7126 | -21 | -0.29% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୦୦୧ | 7041 | -46 | -0.65% | | | L2505-2509 | 243 | 190 | 53 | 27.89% | | | PP2505-2509 | 110 | 82 | 25 | 29.41% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7130 | 7200 | -70 | -0.97% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7230 | 7300 | -70 | -0.96% | | | 华北 ...