当前，全球经济充满不确定性，经济碎片化和贸易紧张局势加剧，扰乱全球产业链和供应链，引发国际 金融市场动荡，削弱全球经济增长动能。潘功胜表示，人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出一揽子货币 政策措施，主要有三大类共十项措施。一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给，保 持市场流动性充裕；二是价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，也就是中央银行 向商业银行提供再贷款的利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率；三是结构型政策，完善现有结构性货币政策 工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 近期，一系列增量金融政策陆续出台，对促进经济金融平稳运行发挥了积极作用。日前召开的中央政治 局会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，并对设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩 大消费、稳定外贸等作出部署。 "当前，银行保险机构各项业务有序开展，主要监管指标均处于健康区间。大型金融机构基本盘稳 固，'压舱石'作用明显。"金融监管总局局长李云泽介绍，将加力加劲推动既定政策落地见效，加快加 强增量政策储备，近期将推出进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围，支持小微企业、民营企业融资一 揽子政策 ...

金融发布会:"双降"之外的政策信号 2025 年 05 月 07 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 今天的国新办金融发布会"既赶早也赶巧"，可以说是为 4 月政治局会议后 一系列稳市场、稳经济的宏观政策拉开了序幕。 "赶早"无疑是借鉴了去年"924"在开盘前释放利好的成功经验，上证指数午 盘上涨 0.64%，我们认为这一次"一揽子金融政策"对市场的影响更偏细水长流。 "赶巧"则是因为中美经贸谈判在即，谁能在新一轮谈判中把握主动，背后比拼 的是双方的士气和耐心，首先就需要一个稳定的市场预期。 虽然市场对本次发布会第一反应的超预期是央行"双降"，但我们认为随着关税 冲击的显现，真正能让经济和市场行稳致远的关键因素仍在于货币金融政策和财 政政策的协同，预计随着"一揽子金融政策"在二季度的陆续落地，三季度增量 财政 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call pertains to the financial sector in China, specifically focusing on monetary policy and its implications for various industries, including real estate and stock markets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Unusual Timing and Leadership**: The meeting was held at 9 AM, which is rare, and the use of "responsible person" instead of "relevant responsible person" suggests the presence of top leadership [1][2]. 2. **Previous Policy Context**: The last meeting of this significance occurred on September 24, 2024, which resulted in major policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and measures to stabilize the stock market [1][2]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: The meeting follows the release of April's PMI, indicating early signs of economic weakness, suggesting that comprehensive policies will be introduced [1][2]. 4. **Expected Policy Actions**: - A reserve requirement ratio cut is anticipated, while interest rate cuts are uncertain, with a previous survey indicating that the priority is on reserve cuts [2]. - The net interest margin for banks is under pressure, potentially falling below 1.35%, indicating that any interest rate cut would likely be limited to around 10 basis points [2]. 5. **New Financial Tools**: The meeting is expected to introduce details on new policy financial tools aimed at supporting infrastructure or industrial investments, which could boost fixed asset investment growth [2]. 6. **Consumer and Elderly Support Measures**: The central bank is likely to announce measures related to service consumption and elderly care refinancing, although the macroeconomic impact is expected to be limited [2]. 7. **Real Estate Support Policies**: Additional support for the real estate sector is anticipated, but the scale will not be as significant as previous measures. The market for second-hand homes remains relatively strong, and there may be further easing of purchase restrictions, though the impact is expected to be minimal [3]. 8. **Stock Market Stability**: Policies to stabilize the stock market will likely be reiterated, as recent measures have been effective in maintaining investor confidence, with minimal market volatility observed [3]. Other Important Insights - The shift in language regarding real estate from "stop decline and stabilize" to "consolidate stability" indicates a cautious approach to the sector's recovery [3]. - The overall sentiment suggests a focus on maintaining economic stability while cautiously introducing new measures to support growth in key sectors [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing employment and the economy while promoting high-quality development through various policy measures [1] Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to finalize the project list for the "two heavy" constructions and all projects under the central budget by the end of June 2025 [1] - A new type of policy-based financial tool will be established to address the issue of insufficient capital for project construction [1]

国新办今日就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况举行新闻发布会。国家发展改革委副主任 赵辰昕表示，扩大投资方面，将工业软件等更新升级纳入"两新"政策支持范围，加快消费基础设施、社 会领域投资，制定实施充电设施"倍增"行动，支持超大特大城市和I型大城市建设停车位。力争6月底前 下达2025年"两重"建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清单，同时设立新型政策性金融工具，解决项目建设 资本金不足问题。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Chinese macroeconomic environment** and **monetary policy** adjustments in response to internal and external pressures, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S. tariffs and the need for liquidity support. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Framework**: China's monetary policy operates under a flexible framework that balances multiple objectives, including economic growth, full employment, price stability, financial stability, and balance of payments. The prioritization of these goals can shift based on changing internal and external conditions [3][2][1]. - **Economic Challenges**: The second quarter of 2025 is expected to face challenges such as the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, slowing economic growth, and increased employment pressure. This necessitates a supportive liquidity environment [6][5][1]. - **Liquidity Conditions**: As of March 2025, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed net injections through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, indicating that liquidity has passed its tightest phase and is gradually becoming more accommodative [9][7][1]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The market interest rate DR007 has decreased from over 2% in January and February to approximately 1.63% by late April, suggesting improving liquidity but not yet reaching a fully accommodative state [10][1]. - **Future Monetary Policy Direction**: It is anticipated that the PBOC will continue net injections in MLF and reverse repos in the second quarter, with potential interest rate cuts expected to be confirmed after the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions in June [11][4][1]. Additional Important Content - **Structural Monetary Policy Tools**: The Politburo has proposed new structural monetary policy tools aimed at directing bank credit towards technology, consumption, and foreign trade sectors, addressing capital gaps in major projects, and promoting credit expansion [12][4][1]. - **Historical Context**: Previous similar financial tools introduced in 2022 had significant impacts, with a total scale of 600 billion yuan supporting over 3.5 trillion yuan in credit expansion, indicating the potential effectiveness of new tools [14][1]. - **Potential Policy Adjustments**: If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates in June or if there are significant pressures on the Chinese yuan, the PBOC may still implement rate cuts or guide the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downwards to support the real economy [16][17][1]. - **Overall Monetary Policy Status**: Currently, China's monetary policy is in a phase of easing, with expectations of a shift towards substantial easing in the second quarter, focusing on supporting economic growth and employment [18][1].

Group 1: Policy Overview - The meeting occurred amid unclear U.S. tariff policies, reflecting a characteristic of "progress and retention" in policy direction[3] - The meeting identified "increased external shocks" as the main issue affecting China's economy[4] - The overall requirement to address external shocks is to "strengthen bottom-line thinking, prepare sufficient plans, and solidly carry out economic work"[4] Group 2: Economic Measures - The policy tone remains largely unchanged, but new requirements have been introduced, emphasizing "four stabilizations" instead of "six stabilizations" from previous meetings[5] - New structural monetary policy tools are expected to be introduced to support the real economy, with a projected reserve requirement gap of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for 2025[6][7] - The meeting emphasized the importance of boosting consumption, particularly for middle- and low-income groups, to enhance economic growth[8] Group 3: Support for Affected Sectors - Multiple measures will be taken to support enterprises affected by tariff shocks, including increased financing support and integration of domestic and foreign trade[9] - The meeting highlighted the need to protect livelihoods, particularly for those in industries heavily impacted by tariffs, by enhancing unemployment insurance and social assistance systems[9] Group 4: Market Outlook - The risk of a significant downturn in the stock market is low, with expectations of a structural market trend, particularly favoring the consumer sector[10][11] - The meeting indicated that existing incremental policies are in reserve and will be timely released based on changing circumstances, particularly as tariff situations clarify[15]