Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US raided Venezuela, escalating geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026 [2] - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026 [2] - Domestic PTA maintains high production, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. High gasoline spreads support aromatics. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, with high PTA consumption and increased market hoarding willingness [2][3] - Polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, but polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5100 to 5095, a drop of 5 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3694 to 3681, a drop of 13 [2] Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price decreased from 5144 to 5110, a drop of 34 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3847 to 3803, a drop of 44 [2] Short Fiber Market - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6640 to 6545, a drop of 95 [2] - Short fiber basis decreased from 86 to 70, a drop of 16 [2] - 2 - 3 spread decreased from 8 to 4, a drop of 12 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] Bottle Chip Market - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased by 35 yuan/ton on average, with a range of 6030 - 6100 yuan/ton [2] - PTA and bottle chip futures were closed, supply-side offers were stable with a slight increase, market negotiation was light, and downstream terminal demand was weak, but the negotiation focus shifted slightly upward [2] Other Product Price Changes - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10400 to 10450, an increase of 50 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3760 to 3905, an increase of 145 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16370 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15280 to 15315, an increase of 35 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn profit increased from 1192 to 1242, an increase of 50 [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - Direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95% [3] - Polyester short fiber production and sales increased from 55.00% to 57.00%, an increase of 2.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

· 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产 会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题 金十数据1月4日讯，欧佩克+在声明中表示，欧佩克+同意在2026年第一季度维持石油产量稳定。周日的欧佩克+会议召 开之际，由于市场对供应过剩的担忧加剧，2025年油价已下跌超过18%，创下自2020年以来最大年度跌幅。该组织在 去年11月已同意在今年1月、2月和3月暂停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。此外，一位欧佩克+代表表示， 八个成员国在周日的简短线上会议上并未讨论委内瑞拉问题。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/05 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/25 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The mid - to long - term upward trend is expected to continue due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, but it may face short - term pressure and volatility. For Shanghai gold, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for the mid - line [7][8]. - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. The mid - to long - term upward trend is expected to continue supported by factors like falling global silver inventories, strong industrial demand, and Fed's rate - cut expectations, but it needs to beware of policy shifts and high volatility. A wait - and - see approach is also recommended for the mid - line [32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory (Gold Futures) 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. From late 2025 to early 2026, the gold price showed a high - level correction and then stabilized. Short - term factors led to a price drop from the high, but the mid - to long - term core logic for the rise remains unchanged. The price found support in the range of $4300 - 4350 per ounce (about 970 - 980 yuan per gram in China) and rebounded. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy for Shanghai gold contract 2604 was to be cautiously bullish in the short - term, with an upper pressure level of 1011 - 1026 yuan per gram and a lower support level of 988 - 1000 yuan per gram, and to buy on dips while being aware of New Year's holiday risks. - This week's strategy for Shanghai gold contract 2604 is also to be cautiously bullish in the short - term, with an upper pressure level of 980 - 1000 yuan per gram and a lower support level of 950 - 970 yuan per gram. Buy on dips and control positions due to large short - term fluctuations [10][11]. 3.3 Related Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][24]. Group 4: Summary by Directory (Silver Futures) 4.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai silver futures are in a strong upward trend and at the end of it. From late 2025 to early 2026, the silver price showed an extreme trend of soaring and then crashing, followed by a volatile stabilization. Short - term fluctuations were due to factors like margin hikes by the exchange. The mid - to long - term upward trend is supported by factors such as falling inventories, strong industrial demand, and Fed's rate - cut expectations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [32]. 4.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy for silver contract 2604 was that it ran strongly at a high level, with a lower support level of 18,000 - 18,500 yuan per kilogram, and to buy on dips while being aware of New Year's holiday risks. - This week's strategy for silver contract 2604 is that it runs at a high level, with an upper pressure level of 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and a lower support level of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan per kilogram. Buy on dips and control positions due to increased short - term fluctuations [35][36]. 4.3 Related Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][47][49].

"EIA数据显示，委内瑞拉石油储量达3030亿桶，约占全球原油储量的五分之一，为全球储量最高的国 家。"光大期货能化团队最新发布的研究报告统计分析，但受美国经济制裁影响，委内瑞拉石油行业上 游投资不足，导致其原油产量大幅下滑。 全球原油市场维持供强需弱格局，假期期间地缘变局再起，对油价影响几何？ 假期期间，地缘变局又起。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普于1月3日称，美国对委内瑞拉实施大规模打击，已抓获委总统马杜罗及 其夫人并将他们带离委内瑞拉。 委内瑞拉为产油国，此次石油价格是否会受到脉冲影响？ 目前国际原油市场尚处于周末后的"盘前"阶段，2026年首个交易日国际原油价格继续收低。1月2日， NYMEX原油期货合约下跌0.17%，结算价报每桶57.32美元；ICE布伦特原油合约下跌0.10美元，结算价 报每桶60.75美元。 "预计国际油价将脉冲式高开，随后仍会被供应过剩主线拉回每桶55美元～60美元区间，"一位能源行业 分析人士对第一财经记者分析称，供需基本面主导下，地缘风险对油价的提振逐步被大幅稀释。当前全 球市场目前处于供应过剩状态，原油市场近年来多次经历地缘扰动后，"免疫"特征明显。需关注国际市 场开盘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts have significantly influenced gold prices, which reached above $4500 per ounce, but profit-taking has begun as market liquidity returns after the New Year holiday [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a strong upward trend, with a notable annual increase of over 60% [1][4]. - The market is currently pricing in two interest rate cuts in 2026, and any news regarding the pace or extent of these cuts could lead to a market reassessment [1][4]. - Delayed economic data due to government shutdowns will soon be released, potentially reshaping market perceptions of economic conditions and inflation [1][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Events - A significant military operation by the U.S. against Venezuela resulted in the capture of President Maduro and his wife, marking a notable escalation in global geopolitical tensions [1][4]. - This event is expected to heighten market concerns about broader conflicts, thereby enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal and establishing a "war premium" that supports prices [1][4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - If geopolitical tensions ease, a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" strategy may lead to a sharp rise and subsequent fall in gold prices, allowing for potential short-selling opportunities [2][5]. - Conversely, if tensions escalate, gold prices could easily surpass the $4500 mark, with a possibility of reaching new historical highs around $4600 [2][5]. - The recommended trading strategy for the upcoming week is to initiate long positions while being cautious of the inherent risks, with a strong emphasis on stop-loss and take-profit measures [2][5].

【金启新程掌乾坤，步步为盈岁岁安】 新岁启幕，万象更新！祝各位财源广进，福寿安康，账户常红！2026年，黄金征途，保持信心，李槿与你结伴同行，稳抓波段，共赴新高！ 回首年末：周一黄金单日重挫，创两月最大跌幅。从最高4549一路回撤来到4307。周二震荡修复，冲高回落延续跌势。周三收官震荡，小幅收跌。国际黄金 高位暴跌后弱修复，主因年末获利了结、保证金上调和流动性不足，中长期支撑趋势未变。 展望全年：今年全年大概率高位震荡、温和上行，核心看美联储降息、央行购金与地缘风险影响。机构预测目标剑指4900-5100，极端情况下6000可期。美 联储2025年已经降75基点，2026年如果再降2次，压低持有成本，利好金价。 今日开盘黄金直接跳空高开，亚盘震荡偏强走势。最近主要开始逢低多，实战趋势布局会陆陆续续开始。今日如果有低点出现或探低确认，谨记：回落不是 风险，而是倒车接人的良机！ 短期走势上先震荡对待，短期趋势多空上方分水关口在4400，站稳这里，黄金会有大的反攻或年度后续还会有新高。机构预测的4900大目标后期年度大概率 也会到，只是时间问题，短期不用关注那么多！ 上周五下探4275触发反弹，今日早盘重点关注4 ...

| | 国长期货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月31日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ななな | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铂 | 文文文 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 隔夜贵金属延续调整，日内波动仍大。美联储会议纪要显示官员分歧严重，不过大多数与会者认为如果通胀 如预期随时间下降，进一步下调利率可能是适当的。美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势,但资金 推动下短期内涨幅过大,阶段性调整在所难免, 铂把连续大幅度下挫, 主因前期多头资金拥挤,元旦假期前 获利盘出局，盘面呈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, influenced by international oil prices, divergent monetary policies, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The USD/CAD exchange rate closed at 1.3696, with a slight increase of 0.09%, and reached a peak of 1.3700 during the day [1] - The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is highly correlated with oil prices, which have stabilized around $57.80 per barrel [1] - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in Venezuela and Ukraine, are providing support for the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2: Oil Prices and Economic Indicators - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.6% the previous day, but there are concerns about OPEC+ increasing production, which could lead to a decline in oil prices and weaken support for the Canadian dollar [1] - The Canadian economy shows positive indicators with a November CPI of 2.2%, an addition of 53,000 jobs, and a GDP growth of 2.6% in Q3, supporting the Canadian dollar [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, with expectations for continued easing in 2026, which diminishes the dollar's interest rate advantage [1] - The Canadian central bank has maintained a benchmark interest rate of 2.25%, with a cautious neutral tone, and there are market expectations for a potential rate cut in Q1 2026 [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The exchange rate is in a high-level consolidation phase, trading within the range of 1.3620 to 1.3800, with the 50-day moving average providing medium-term support [2] - Key support levels are identified at 1.3650 to 1.3620, with potential declines to 1.3550 to 1.3580 if these levels are breached [2] - Resistance levels are noted at 1.3720 and 1.3800, with analysts suggesting that the exchange rate may continue to oscillate within this range [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals dropped significantly. Recently, the prospects of Fed easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals. However, the risks have been accumulating due to excessive gains driven by funds. Domestic and foreign exchanges have successively adjusted margins and trading restrictions. The short - term market volatility is high, and participation should be cautious. The platinum fundamentals continue to be in short supply, and the medium - term upward logic remains intact. There is a possibility that long - position funds may cover positions on dips. The recent IV has increased, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling PUT options [1] Summary According to Related Events - Trump is considering suing Powell for incompetence and may fire him. He also stated that if Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles, he supports a strike on Iran; if Iran develops nuclear weapons, he supports a rapid strike on Iran [2] - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation: - Russia claims that 91 Ukrainian drones attacked Putin's residence, while Ukraine denies it. - Zelensky requested a 50 - year security guarantee from Trump, and the issues of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and territory remain unresolved in the 20 - point plan. - The Kremlin says there is no discussion about a call between Putin and Zelensky currently, but a call between Putin and Trump is expected to take place soon. - The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces says Russian troops are successfully advancing into the Ukrainian military's defense circle, and the advancement speed in December was the fastest in nearly a year. - Putin instructed to continue the work of establishing a security zone in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, aiming to complete it in 2026, and said it is necessary to continue actions to gain control of Zaporizhzhia city [2]