证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250622 转债策略以守为主 2025 年 06 月 22 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《 二 级 资 本 债 周 度 数 据 跟 踪 （20250616-20250620）》 2025-06-22 《锡振转债：汽车车身结构件制造主 力军》 2025-06-20 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] | 1. 周度市场回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 权益市场整体上跌，少数行业收涨 | 4 | | 1.2. 转债市场整体下跌，少数行业收涨 | 6 | | 1.3. 股债市场情绪对比 | 11 | | 2. 后市观点及投资策略 | 13 | | 3. 风险提示 | 14 | | 图 | 1： | 中证转债和万得全 A 涨跌情况对比 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

——美护主线 行业变化： （1）5 月综合天猫+抖音，国货绽家、斐萃、PA、毛戈平、完美日记、科兰黎、六神、newpage、珂蔓 朵、拉芳等表现亮眼；日韩龙头复苏显著。5 月综合天猫+抖音，国货品牌中斐萃在低基数下延续高增 长，5 月GMV 体量超6000w，绽家、PA、newpage 、科兰黎、珂蔓朵、拉芳、创福康增速均超100%； 毛戈平、RV、六神、完美日记5 月双渠道GMV 增速超50%。海外品牌中SKII、后、雅漾增长亮眼。品 牌排名：5 月抖音TOP10 国货占比30%，韩束蝉联第一，珀莱雅、自然堂分别位列TOP4/10；天猫 TOP10 国货占比20%，珀莱雅蝉联第一，薇诺娜位列TOP10。 （2）若羽臣回购价格大幅上调至88.4 元/股。若羽臣公告调整2025 年度第一期回购的价格上限，由 30.22 元/股大幅上调至88.4 元/股；此外回购方案其他内容不变，预计回购金额约1-2 亿元（含），截至 6.9 当前已累计回购942 万，预计剩余回购金额约0.9-1.9 亿元。调整原因主系股价持续超出原回购上 限，公司基于对公司未来持续稳定发展的信心和对公司价值的认可，同时以保障回购顺利实施。 （ ...

普通人该如何警惕新消费泡沫？ 本文为网易和首席商业评论联合共创。 01 Labubu黄牛市场，崩了 Labubu的黄牛价格也要崩了？ 最近，一则关于"Labubu价格崩盘"的话题冲上微博热搜榜第一。自6月18日下午开始，泡泡玛特官方商城小程序多次弹出相关商品的补货通知，同时在天猫官方旗 舰店、抖音潮玩直播间等也大量放货。6月18日晚间，不少消费者在社交平台发文表示抢到了一直断货的Labubu3.0系列。 受泡泡玛特官方大量补货影响，Labubu在二手市场的交易价格突然暴跌。另据某潮玩二手交易软件的数据，Labubu 3.0盲盒价格普遍下跌约50%，整盒（含6个盲 盒）回收价从补货前的1500—2800元大幅跌至650—800元。甚至还有"黄牛"表示："如果卖不完，只能自己玩了。" 与此同时还有资本撤离信号，泡泡玛特老股东蜂巧资本在股价峰值清仓套现21亿港元。 带货主播李佳琦在直播中的言论同样引发各界关注。李佳琦直播时建议消费者"无需加价抢购"LABUBU系列，直言其售价"虚高"，并预言价格将回归理性。 Labubu的二手价格闪崩，放在业内其实不是第一次了。 这些年来，积木熊、暴力熊、Molly等IP产品的二级 ...

1、 国务院副总理丁薛祥出席第二十八届圣彼得堡国际经济论坛全会 ，并发表题为"弘扬全人类 共同价值 推动多极化世界发展"的致辞。丁薛祥表示，尽管外部冲击影响加大，中国经济依然呈现向 好态势，向世界展现了强劲活力和韧性。中国将加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。无论外部环境如何变 化，中国对外开放的大门只会越开越大。诚挚欢迎各国企业到中国投资兴业，积极参与中国式现代化进 程、分享中国发展机遇。 1、 国务院副总理丁薛祥在圣彼得堡会见俄罗斯总统普京 。丁薛祥表示，当前国际局势深刻演 变，中俄两国应以坚定的全面战略协作，捍卫国际道义，支持以世贸组织为核心的多边贸易体制，携手 维护产供链稳定，深化上海合作组织、金砖国家等多边合作，为推进平等有序的世界多极化和普惠包容 的经济全球化作出新的更大贡献。 2、香港特区行政长官李家超表示，香港国安法公布实施5年后的今天， 香港排名全球最自由经济体 榜首 ，国际金融中心地位稳占世界第三，世界竞争力排名重返世界前三。 3、住户"存款定期化"加强的趋势，不仅体现在今年以来逐月上升的定期存款余额上， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the rise of new consumption is a result of specific economic cycles and social changes, with optional consumption surpassing essential consumption in the US and Japan during key periods of economic transformation [1][2][3] - Historical experiences from the US stock market show that optional consumption sectors have significantly outperformed essential consumption sectors, particularly during the 1970s and post-2009, driven by factors such as rising disposable income and shifts in consumer behavior [1][2] - The financial characteristics of new consumption reveal that sectors within optional consumption have seen increasing debt ratios while effectively managing risks, leading to improved fundamentals and higher valuation premiums [2][3] Group 2 - The driving factors behind the shift from essential to optional consumption include continuous growth in disposable income, technological advancements, and changes in demographic structures and consumer attitudes, particularly among younger generations [3][4] - The market structure is evolving, with leading companies in optional consumption leveraging scale effects and brand advantages to consolidate their market positions, as evidenced by successful companies in Japan's toy, beauty, and gaming sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the experiences from the US and Japan can inform current investment strategies in the A-share market, focusing on sectors that meet diverse consumer needs and exhibit high growth potential [4][10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of a youth-driven consumption trend in Jiangsu, particularly in Nanjing, where new retail brands are proliferating to meet the demands of young consumers [4][5] - The concentration of new consumption brands in core urban areas is driven by market potential, resource aggregation, and efficient operations, enhancing competitive advantages [5][6] - As the market saturates, brands are shifting focus to less developed urban and county markets, tapping into a large, youthful consumer base that craves diverse fashion options [7][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - New consumption brands are clustering in core urban areas due to high population density and strong purchasing power, which provide a rich pool of potential customers [5][6] - Data from a report indicates that Nanjing has the highest number of new retail brand stores, with eight districts ranking in the top 15 in Jiangsu [5] - The shift towards county markets is seen as a response to the saturation in major cities, with brands finding new opportunities in previously overlooked areas [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The influx of new brands has significantly improved the shopping experience for young consumers, offering a wider range of products from high-end to niche brands [9][10] - Specific examples include the successful opening of popular brands like Heytea in smaller cities, which has created a buzz among local youth [7][10] - The introduction of diverse retail options has transformed county areas into fashionable destinations, enhancing their urban image and cultural atmosphere [11] Group 3: Employment and Entrepreneurship - The growth of new consumption brands has generated numerous job opportunities for local youth, from retail staff to management positions [10] - Young entrepreneurs are also emerging, inspired by the new market dynamics, leading to the establishment of unique local businesses [10] - The article cites a local coffee shop founded by a young entrepreneur as an example of how new consumption trends are fostering creativity and cultural engagement in the community [10]

尽管私募的投资策略种类逐渐增多，股票策略依然是最为主流的私募投资策略，也是投资者最为 关注的一种策略。 根据私募排排网数据，截至2025年5月底，核心策略为股票策略的私募达5185 家，占比约为66.58%；在私募排排网有业绩展示的股票策略产品为2822只，占有业绩展示的私 募产品总数的比例约为61.54%。 近一年来（ 2024-06-01至2025-05-31），A股、港股、美股等股票市场都出现了较大的波动，但 最终均录得不同程度的上涨。 A股主要指数中，中证2000以超25%的涨幅领涨。美股三大指数也 有10%左右的涨幅，港股表现最为亮眼，恒生科技指数涨幅超40%。 本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） | 证券市场 | 指数名称 | 近一年涨跌幅 (2024-06-01, | 近一年最大涨幅 (2024-06-01, | 近一年最大回撤 (2024-06-01, | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025-05-31 ) | 2025-05-31 ) | 2025-05-31 ) | | A股 | 上证指数 | 8.44% | 2 ...

大消费板块的复苏 今年上半年，从传统大消费板块的强势反弹到新零售板块的崛起，从政策端的密集发力到外资的疯狂涌 入，消费板块逐渐成为资本市场的"宠儿"。这背后不仅是中国经济复苏的信号，更是一场关于策红利与 产业转型的宏大叙事。近期，河南、福建、广东等地接连发布提振消费专项行动实施方案，出台了稳定 就业、促进增收、发放消费券、鼓励带薪休假等举措，更大力度惠民生、促消费、做强国内大循环。政 策协同做大消费"蛋糕"的基本态势已经初步形成。 2024年，消费板块曾经历漫长的调整期。以白酒行业为例，龙头股的滚动市盈率一度跌至近5年的低 谷，市场对消费股的悲观情绪达到极致。然而，随着2025年经济数据的回暖，消费企业的盈利预期悄然 逆转。 今年3月印发的《提振消费专项行动方案》提出，运用财政补贴、贷款贴息等政策工具，突出重点、精 准施策，将促消费同惠民生、补短板结合起来，扩大消费需求，提升消费能力，更好发挥消费在畅通国 民经济循环、拉动经济增长中的积极作用。全国各地也纷纷出台刺激消费的政策，整个消费产业在政策 利好的驱动下，在资本市场走出了一波牛市。 上海和贵州近期发布的提振消费专项行动方案都提到，要加大政府投资对教育医疗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant role of e-commerce in boosting consumption and the innovative strategies adopted during the "618" shopping festival to stimulate consumer demand [1][2][3] - E-commerce platforms are witnessing a shift in consumer demand from purchasing single products to seeking systematic and scenario-based solutions, suggesting a need for enhanced AI recommendations [2][3] - The "618" shopping festival serves as a critical indicator of consumer resilience and innovation in China, with a notable increase in online retail sales, which reached 60,402 billion yuan from January to May, marking an 8.5% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that e-commerce platforms should enhance consumer experience by focusing on product quality and innovation to meet the rising expectations of consumers [1][3] - The entry of instant retail platforms like Meituan Shanguo during "618" has transformed the landscape, with nearly one million active local merchants and a doubling of transaction volume in 1,574 local business districts across 164 cities [2][3] - E-commerce platforms are encouraged to expand into lower-tier markets and invest in cross-border e-commerce to tap into new consumer potential and diversify product offerings [3]

Group 1 - As of June 20, 2025, there have been 32 new listings in the Hong Kong stock market, raising a total net amount of HKD 77.969 billion, significantly higher than the total of HKD 13.464 billion raised in the first half of 2024 [1] - The number of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong has increased, with 6 A+H share companies successfully listing this year, reflecting strong demand from investors for quality A-share listings [1] - The 6 A+H share companies had a strong debut in the Hong Kong market, with most experiencing double-digit percentage increases, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. seeing a cumulative increase of 117.20% [1] Group 2 - The A-share company Sanhua Intelligent Controls is set to list in Hong Kong on June 23, 2025, with an issue price of HKD 22.53, aiming to raise HKD 0.811 billion for product development and global expansion [2] Group 3 - Traditional consumer stocks have underperformed, while new consumption stocks have thrived, with companies like Haitian Flavoring and Food Co. and Shubao International seeing significant stock price increases [3] - New consumption stocks such as milk tea brands have shown remarkable performance, with shares of Misha Group and Hu Shang Ayi increasing by 153.83% and 20.67% respectively since their listings [3] Group 4 - The trend of collectible toy stocks has also emerged, with Pop Mart International seeing a cumulative stock price increase of over 100% [4] - The toy company Blok has attracted significant interest, with its Hong Kong public offering being oversubscribed by 6,000 times [4] Group 5 - Five unprofitable biotech companies have listed in Hong Kong this year, with Mirxes and Brainstorm Aurora showing strong stock performance since their listings, with increases of 48.71% and 113.66% respectively [5][6] - The focus on "hard tech + medical" sectors has led to high valuations for these unprofitable biotech firms, despite their current losses [6] Group 6 - At least 10 more companies are expected to list in the remaining days of June, including traditional consumer stocks and unprofitable biotech firms, with their performance yet to be determined [7][8]