普通人该如何警惕新消费泡沫？ 本文为网易和首席商业评论联合共创。 01 Labubu黄牛市场，崩了 Labubu的黄牛价格也要崩了？ 最近，一则关于"Labubu价格崩盘"的话题冲上微博热搜榜第一。自6月18日下午开始，泡泡玛特官方商城小程序多次弹出相关商品的补货通知，同时在天猫官方旗 舰店、抖音潮玩直播间等也大量放货。6月18日晚间，不少消费者在社交平台发文表示抢到了一直断货的Labubu3.0系列。 受泡泡玛特官方大量补货影响，Labubu在二手市场的交易价格突然暴跌。另据某潮玩二手交易软件的数据，Labubu 3.0盲盒价格普遍下跌约50%，整盒（含6个盲 盒）回收价从补货前的1500—2800元大幅跌至650—800元。甚至还有"黄牛"表示："如果卖不完，只能自己玩了。" 与此同时还有资本撤离信号，泡泡玛特老股东蜂巧资本在股价峰值清仓套现21亿港元。 带货主播李佳琦在直播中的言论同样引发各界关注。李佳琦直播时建议消费者"无需加价抢购"LABUBU系列，直言其售价"虚高"，并预言价格将回归理性。 Labubu的二手价格闪崩，放在业内其实不是第一次了。 这些年来，积木熊、暴力熊、Molly等IP产品的二级 ...

1、 国务院副总理丁薛祥出席第二十八届圣彼得堡国际经济论坛全会 ，并发表题为"弘扬全人类 共同价值 推动多极化世界发展"的致辞。丁薛祥表示，尽管外部冲击影响加大，中国经济依然呈现向 好态势，向世界展现了强劲活力和韧性。中国将加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。无论外部环境如何变 化，中国对外开放的大门只会越开越大。诚挚欢迎各国企业到中国投资兴业，积极参与中国式现代化进 程、分享中国发展机遇。 1、 国务院副总理丁薛祥在圣彼得堡会见俄罗斯总统普京 。丁薛祥表示，当前国际局势深刻演 变，中俄两国应以坚定的全面战略协作，捍卫国际道义，支持以世贸组织为核心的多边贸易体制，携手 维护产供链稳定，深化上海合作组织、金砖国家等多边合作，为推进平等有序的世界多极化和普惠包容 的经济全球化作出新的更大贡献。 2、香港特区行政长官李家超表示，香港国安法公布实施5年后的今天， 香港排名全球最自由经济体 榜首 ，国际金融中心地位稳占世界第三，世界竞争力排名重返世界前三。 3、住户"存款定期化"加强的趋势，不仅体现在今年以来逐月上升的定期存款余额上， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the rise of new consumption is a result of specific economic cycles and social changes, with optional consumption surpassing essential consumption in the US and Japan during key periods of economic transformation [1][2][3] - Historical experiences from the US stock market show that optional consumption sectors have significantly outperformed essential consumption sectors, particularly during the 1970s and post-2009, driven by factors such as rising disposable income and shifts in consumer behavior [1][2] - The financial characteristics of new consumption reveal that sectors within optional consumption have seen increasing debt ratios while effectively managing risks, leading to improved fundamentals and higher valuation premiums [2][3] Group 2 - The driving factors behind the shift from essential to optional consumption include continuous growth in disposable income, technological advancements, and changes in demographic structures and consumer attitudes, particularly among younger generations [3][4] - The market structure is evolving, with leading companies in optional consumption leveraging scale effects and brand advantages to consolidate their market positions, as evidenced by successful companies in Japan's toy, beauty, and gaming sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the experiences from the US and Japan can inform current investment strategies in the A-share market, focusing on sectors that meet diverse consumer needs and exhibit high growth potential [4][10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of a youth-driven consumption trend in Jiangsu, particularly in Nanjing, where new retail brands are proliferating to meet the demands of young consumers [4][5] - The concentration of new consumption brands in core urban areas is driven by market potential, resource aggregation, and efficient operations, enhancing competitive advantages [5][6] - As the market saturates, brands are shifting focus to less developed urban and county markets, tapping into a large, youthful consumer base that craves diverse fashion options [7][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - New consumption brands are clustering in core urban areas due to high population density and strong purchasing power, which provide a rich pool of potential customers [5][6] - Data from a report indicates that Nanjing has the highest number of new retail brand stores, with eight districts ranking in the top 15 in Jiangsu [5] - The shift towards county markets is seen as a response to the saturation in major cities, with brands finding new opportunities in previously overlooked areas [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The influx of new brands has significantly improved the shopping experience for young consumers, offering a wider range of products from high-end to niche brands [9][10] - Specific examples include the successful opening of popular brands like Heytea in smaller cities, which has created a buzz among local youth [7][10] - The introduction of diverse retail options has transformed county areas into fashionable destinations, enhancing their urban image and cultural atmosphere [11] Group 3: Employment and Entrepreneurship - The growth of new consumption brands has generated numerous job opportunities for local youth, from retail staff to management positions [10] - Young entrepreneurs are also emerging, inspired by the new market dynamics, leading to the establishment of unique local businesses [10] - The article cites a local coffee shop founded by a young entrepreneur as an example of how new consumption trends are fostering creativity and cultural engagement in the community [10]

尽管私募的投资策略种类逐渐增多，股票策略依然是最为主流的私募投资策略，也是投资者最为 关注的一种策略。 根据私募排排网数据，截至2025年5月底，核心策略为股票策略的私募达5185 家，占比约为66.58%；在私募排排网有业绩展示的股票策略产品为2822只，占有业绩展示的私 募产品总数的比例约为61.54%。 近一年来（ 2024-06-01至2025-05-31），A股、港股、美股等股票市场都出现了较大的波动，但 最终均录得不同程度的上涨。 A股主要指数中，中证2000以超25%的涨幅领涨。美股三大指数也 有10%左右的涨幅，港股表现最为亮眼，恒生科技指数涨幅超40%。 本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） | 证券市场 | 指数名称 | 近一年涨跌幅 (2024-06-01, | 近一年最大涨幅 (2024-06-01, | 近一年最大回撤 (2024-06-01, | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025-05-31 ) | 2025-05-31 ) | 2025-05-31 ) | | A股 | 上证指数 | 8.44% | 2 ...

大消费板块的复苏 今年上半年，从传统大消费板块的强势反弹到新零售板块的崛起，从政策端的密集发力到外资的疯狂涌 入，消费板块逐渐成为资本市场的"宠儿"。这背后不仅是中国经济复苏的信号，更是一场关于策红利与 产业转型的宏大叙事。近期，河南、福建、广东等地接连发布提振消费专项行动实施方案，出台了稳定 就业、促进增收、发放消费券、鼓励带薪休假等举措，更大力度惠民生、促消费、做强国内大循环。政 策协同做大消费"蛋糕"的基本态势已经初步形成。 2024年，消费板块曾经历漫长的调整期。以白酒行业为例，龙头股的滚动市盈率一度跌至近5年的低 谷，市场对消费股的悲观情绪达到极致。然而，随着2025年经济数据的回暖，消费企业的盈利预期悄然 逆转。 今年3月印发的《提振消费专项行动方案》提出，运用财政补贴、贷款贴息等政策工具，突出重点、精 准施策，将促消费同惠民生、补短板结合起来，扩大消费需求，提升消费能力，更好发挥消费在畅通国 民经济循环、拉动经济增长中的积极作用。全国各地也纷纷出台刺激消费的政策，整个消费产业在政策 利好的驱动下，在资本市场走出了一波牛市。 上海和贵州近期发布的提振消费专项行动方案都提到，要加大政府投资对教育医疗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant role of e-commerce in boosting consumption and the innovative strategies adopted during the "618" shopping festival to stimulate consumer demand [1][2][3] - E-commerce platforms are witnessing a shift in consumer demand from purchasing single products to seeking systematic and scenario-based solutions, suggesting a need for enhanced AI recommendations [2][3] - The "618" shopping festival serves as a critical indicator of consumer resilience and innovation in China, with a notable increase in online retail sales, which reached 60,402 billion yuan from January to May, marking an 8.5% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that e-commerce platforms should enhance consumer experience by focusing on product quality and innovation to meet the rising expectations of consumers [1][3] - The entry of instant retail platforms like Meituan Shanguo during "618" has transformed the landscape, with nearly one million active local merchants and a doubling of transaction volume in 1,574 local business districts across 164 cities [2][3] - E-commerce platforms are encouraged to expand into lower-tier markets and invest in cross-border e-commerce to tap into new consumer potential and diversify product offerings [3]

Group 1 - As of June 20, 2025, there have been 32 new listings in the Hong Kong stock market, raising a total net amount of HKD 77.969 billion, significantly higher than the total of HKD 13.464 billion raised in the first half of 2024 [1] - The number of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong has increased, with 6 A+H share companies successfully listing this year, reflecting strong demand from investors for quality A-share listings [1] - The 6 A+H share companies had a strong debut in the Hong Kong market, with most experiencing double-digit percentage increases, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. seeing a cumulative increase of 117.20% [1] Group 2 - The A-share company Sanhua Intelligent Controls is set to list in Hong Kong on June 23, 2025, with an issue price of HKD 22.53, aiming to raise HKD 0.811 billion for product development and global expansion [2] Group 3 - Traditional consumer stocks have underperformed, while new consumption stocks have thrived, with companies like Haitian Flavoring and Food Co. and Shubao International seeing significant stock price increases [3] - New consumption stocks such as milk tea brands have shown remarkable performance, with shares of Misha Group and Hu Shang Ayi increasing by 153.83% and 20.67% respectively since their listings [3] Group 4 - The trend of collectible toy stocks has also emerged, with Pop Mart International seeing a cumulative stock price increase of over 100% [4] - The toy company Blok has attracted significant interest, with its Hong Kong public offering being oversubscribed by 6,000 times [4] Group 5 - Five unprofitable biotech companies have listed in Hong Kong this year, with Mirxes and Brainstorm Aurora showing strong stock performance since their listings, with increases of 48.71% and 113.66% respectively [5][6] - The focus on "hard tech + medical" sectors has led to high valuations for these unprofitable biotech firms, despite their current losses [6] Group 6 - At least 10 more companies are expected to list in the remaining days of June, including traditional consumer stocks and unprofitable biotech firms, with their performance yet to be determined [7][8]

港股这几天走势不算很强，赚钱效应相对来说是比较差的，但有个现象却是挺有意思的，那就是新消费 三巨头：蜜雪集团、老铺黄金和泡泡玛特 ，这三家公司的股价走势明显开始出现了一些分化，背后的 现象挺值得我们探讨的。 今年以来，"年轻人的茅台"站上了资本风口。市场高喊"茅台跌倒、新消费吃饱"的口号更是让人振聋发 聩。其中，包括谷子经济、珠宝首饰、茶饮等在内的新消费概念发起猛攻，年内掀起了两轮强势风潮。 新消费也是今年港股最大的热点。 蜜雪集团这几天调整的过程中，说蜜雪有泡沫的人相对就少了很多。因为蜜雪更接近普通人的生活，大 部分人可能没有买过Labubu，也没有去买过黄金葫芦，但很多人却喝过5元钱一杯的柠檬水，尤其是最 近电商外卖平台大战期间，3元钱的柠檬水都喝过不少。 我们不提泡沫，单看三家公司经营的商品，其实本质还是有一些区别的，蜜雪集团实际是消费降级，泡 泡玛特和老铺黄金都是消费升级。泡泡玛特的潮玩本身就是有生命周期的，老铺黄金产品没问题，但现 在大家都没钱消费了，哪怕是黄金，这也是没钱买了，蜜雪集团是几元钱一杯的饮料，基本是随便买， 本身就是消费降级。 从技术形态去看，泡泡玛特和老铺黄金有点像是双顶破位，蜜雪集 ...

注：本文由格隆汇和网易号联合共创 在国际环境的频繁变动下， "促内需"已经成为很长一段时间以来，国内经济的主旋律。 图源： 图虫创意 在零售商超中，传统商超大卖场渠道下滑 11.4%，已经是连续第四年下滑，2024年全国样本超市中关店数量达994家。 量贩零食店却在此时杀成一片红海。仅 2024年一年，万辰集团旗下好想来开店就接近一万家。 对比最为明显的，是作为传统消费的代表之一，高端白酒价格接连下跌，白酒行业集体遭遇库存压力 ——飞天茅台批发价格下探至2000元/ 瓶，茅台1935出现严重价格倒挂。 从以旧换新国家补贴，到各类大额消费券，无一不展露出， "消费"，在当今社会中的重要地位。 目前，我国居民消费在 GDP中的比重不足40%，对比美国的70%和日本的60%占比，仍有巨大提升空间。 但在近两年，我国的消费市场中却出现了显著的冷热不均。 一边，传统消费普遍持续下行，陷入低迷。另一边， "新消费"却连连创下纪录，刷新人们的认知。 在餐饮行业中，经典的餐饮品类节节败退，湊湊火锅 2024年一年关店73家，亏损超3.5亿元，呷哺集团去年亏损近4亿。 新茶饮却 "登堂入室"——今年蜜雪冰城门店已经超过4.6万 ...