Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered's G10 FX Research Head, Steve Englander, warns of an imminent liquidity crisis facing U.S. assets, with 2026 potentially being a critical point for foreign investors' decisions on U.S. debt purchases [1] Group 1: U.S. Debt and Foreign Investment - Over the past decade, U.S. external debt has surged, with fiscal deficits heavily reliant on international capital inflows [1] - If foreign investors lose confidence in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, the market will quickly feel the pain of "blood loss" [1] - The recent "Beautiful Bill" passed by the Senate failed to alleviate concerns about fiscal sustainability, with economists believing it will exacerbate deficits rather than resolve them [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Despite a 15 basis point decline in 10-year Treasury yields this year, the dollar index has plummeted 8% in 2025, signaling potential risks [1] - The low domestic savings rate in the U.S. poses a significant challenge, making foreign investor confidence crucial for maintaining the debt chain [1] - Englander cites Hemingway's quote about crisis patterns, suggesting that while the U.S. may maintain a "boiling frog" state for a while, 2026 could mark a turning point [1] Group 3: Inflation and Currency Concerns - Inflation and exchange rate risks are core concerns for foreign investors [2] - Even if the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, rising risk premiums could deter foreign capital, potentially leading to an increase in long-term Treasury yields [2] - The lack of alternative options in the global market is currently delaying the crisis, with international investors likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding tariff conflicts and the effects of the Trump administration's tax reforms and deregulation policies in 2025 [2]

当地时间5月9日，美财长贝森特曾就美债问题发出警告，他们现在对美债采取的"非常规手段"，最多撑到8月，之后就可能使政府的现金耗尽，最终不仅会 出现债务违约，也就是政府还不上款，而且还会使政府出现停摆的可能。贝森特一再强调，国会必须在7月时就解决债务上限问题，但这又意味着共和党必 须和民主党协商，那么就有可能妨碍特朗普的一些政策推行。可以说在美债问题上，特朗普已经走入了一个进退两难的境地。 美元（资料图） 中国选择在这个时候减持美债，显然不是心血来潮的决定。要知道，在国际金融市场上，每一个重大决策背后都暗藏玄机。这一手"金融闪电战"，恐怕是中 国早就计划好的战略性调整。毕竟，在当前全球经济形势下，把所有鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里可不是明智之举。而且，随着人民币国际化进程的加快，中国手 中的牌明显更多了。最近的一场汇聚了13个国家的重要会议上，人民币作为融资工具的地位就得到了进一步的认可。这意味着，中国在全球金融市场上的话 语权正在稳步提升。 很多外媒嘴上不服气，说什么"这不算啥，中国不过是调整投资结构"，但华尔街却是另一副模样——资本市场早已风声鹤唳。美债收益率的波动，美元指数 的震荡，哪一个不是"多米诺骨牌"的前兆 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the recent rise in long-term US Treasury yields, with both 20-year and 30-year yields surpassing 5% and remaining above this level since late May 2023 [3][4][8] - The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16 is identified as a primary factor contributing to the increase in yields, leading to a disappointing auction for 20-year bonds on May 21, where the final yield was 5.047%, up 24 basis points from April [4][6] - Concerns regarding the US debt ceiling have resurfaced, particularly following the passage of the "Beautiful Bill" on May 22, which allows for a $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, suggesting a return to expansionary fiscal policies [4][6][7] - Market fears of inflation and delayed interest rate cuts are also contributing to the sustained high yields, with the report indicating that the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower rates could keep yields elevated for an extended period [8] Summary by Sections Recent Yield Trends - Long-term US Treasury yields have recently risen above 5%, with specific reference to the 20-year and 30-year bonds [3][5] - The yields have been influenced by a combination of credit rating downgrades, debt ceiling issues, and inflation concerns [4][8] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade by Moody's has led to increased market volatility and higher yields, as all three major rating agencies have now rated US debt below the highest level [4][6] - The immediate effect was seen in the auction results, which reflected a significant increase in yield compared to previous months [4][6] Debt Ceiling Concerns - The passage of the "Beautiful Bill" has raised expectations of increased debt supply, which could further pressure yields upward [4][6][7] - Historical context is provided, noting that after previous debt ceiling resolutions, yields have tended to rise, indicating a potential pattern [6][7] Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The report highlights that inflation fears and the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts are likely to maintain high yield levels [8] - The probability of a rate cut in June has dropped significantly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [8][11]

自2025年关税风波以来，美联储一直被架在火上烤。一边是难以下降的通胀数据，一边是关税问题引起的市场动荡，是否降息成为一个两难的选择。 文丨陈杰瑞（Jerry Chen） 编辑丨吴海珊 当地时间5月21日，美国市场再现"股债汇三杀"，美债收益率飙升，股市大跌，美元指数跌破100。 关于美联储最新的消息是，5月22日一位美联储理事表示，如果特朗普政府对美国贸易伙伴征收的关税维持在约10%的水平，美联储可能在2025年下半年开 始降息。 长久以来的债务问题在关税风波中终于完全暴露。最终，或许又只能是美联储站出来"承担所有"。 机构表示在美债风波真正平息之前，远离美元资产似乎是较为合理的选择，市场或许会再次转向黄金、日元、瑞郎，又或者像巴菲特那样持币观望。 美债市场持续面临压力，5月22日的20年期美债拍卖疲软，导致美国再现股、债、汇三杀的局面。 美股结束了7天连涨，5月22日标普500指数大跌近1.6%，美元指数跌破100大关，10年美债收益率突破4.5%，30年美债收益率则突破了5%大关。今年有天量 美债到期、特朗普本周将推动减税议程、关税大战下美元资产引力受损等因素共振，促成了当前美债长端收益率易上难下的格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The auction of $69 billion 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed a stable demand, with the yield slightly lower than pre-auction trading levels, indicating continued interest in short-term debt instruments [1] Group 1: Auction Results - The yield on the 2-year Treasury bonds was one basis point lower than the pre-auction trading level, and approximately two basis points lower than last Friday's closing price [1] - The allocation to primary dealers was 10.5%, below the recent average of 10.9%, indicating a lower participation from these dealers [1] - Direct bidders received 26.2% of the allocation, significantly higher than the recent average of 16.4%, suggesting strong interest from non-dealer participants [1] - Indirect bidders accounted for 63.3% of the allocation, slightly below the recent average of 72.7%, indicating a moderate level of interest from this group [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.57, close to the past six auction average of 2.65 and higher than the 2.52 from the April auction, reflecting solid demand [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Upcoming Treasury auctions for 5-year and 7-year bonds are expected to benefit from potential end-of-month demand, indicating a positive outlook for short-term debt instruments [1]

Group 1 - The recent 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction was disappointing, with a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking the second instance in history where the winning yield exceeded 5% and the largest tail risk in six months [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid high fiscal uncertainty and low policy credibility [1] - Concerns over the U.S. high debt levels and the potential expansion of the deficit due to the proposed "Beautiful America Act" are seen as fundamental reasons for the weak auction results and a new wave of selling U.S. dollar assets [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the total outstanding debt of the U.S. federal government reached $36.2 trillion, with foreign investors holding slightly over $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities [3] - The allocation of U.S. debt to foreign investors, including central banks, has dropped to the lowest level since 2019, at only 58.88% during the latest 30-year bond auction, continuing a trend of decline since October of the previous year [3] - Japan and the UK, both facing turmoil in their bond markets, are the top two foreign holders of U.S. debt, with Japan increasing its holdings by $4.9 billion in March 2025, while China reduced its holdings by $18.9 billion, falling to the third-largest holder [3] Group 3 - China has been gradually selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, which is viewed as a warning to the U.S., and has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.377 million ounces by the end of April 2025 [6] - The increase in gold reserves reflects China's trend towards diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, while its significant U.S. debt holdings are a result of decades of trade surpluses with the U.S. [6] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed a strong desire for the U.S. to reassess various tariff measures, particularly on automobiles, which are crucial for Japan's economy [6][9]

市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/27 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 | | | 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/23 | | | 2025/5/19 至 | 2025/5/23 | | | 黄金 | 780.10 | 黄金 | | | 3.76% | | | 白银 | 8263.00 | 白银 | | | 2.00% | | | 豆粕 | 2952.00 | 豆粕 | | | 1.83% | | | 棕榈油 | 8006 ...

Core Insights - The US market resumed trading after the Memorial Day weekend, with both US Treasury bonds and stock index futures rising [1] - Japanese government is considering actions to stabilize bond yields after record highs, which supported bond prices [1] - President Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on the EU, providing support for US stock index futures [1] Treasury Market - The US Treasury bull market flattened, with long-end yields generally declining, with a drop of up to 6.5 basis points [1] - The 2s10s and 5s30s yield spreads tightened by 3.5 basis points and 3 basis points respectively [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by approximately 5 basis points to 4.46%, nearing the day's low [1] Stock Market - The S&P 500 index futures rose by 1.4% [1] - The Euro Stoxx 50 index increased by 0.5% in early London trading [1] - Strong performance was noted in the information technology and industrial sectors [1]

过去几年，美债利率曲线平坦甚至倒挂，银行净息差低迷。TD Cowen报告显示，截至去年第四季度，美国大银行净息差中位数为2.81%，低于历 史平均的3.2%。如今，随着利率回归正常、收益率曲线正向倾斜，净息差有望改善。同时，长期利率上升使银行新购债券收益更高，老债券到期 后资金可投入高利率新债，持续提高利息收入，增加资本缓冲。若特朗普政府放松银行资本金监管要求，银行可用资金将更宽松，抗压能力更 强。 不过，长期利率上涨对银行存在潜在风险。银行过去低利率买入的债券价格下跌，账面浮亏增加。若银行急需现金兑付储户提款，只能亏本卖 债，2023年硅谷银行便是前车之鉴，其因持有大量低利率长期债券，美联储加息致债券价值暴跌，储户集中取款时低价卖债引发亏损和流动性枯 竭，最终倒闭。 今年年初，美国银行股因市场赌经济软着陆、放贷更旺而一度跑赢大盘，但3月、4月因关税担忧升温、衰退风险升高而跑输。截至目前，KBW纳 斯达克银行指数与标普500指数年内涨幅几乎持平，市场仍在犹豫。分析指出，若利率曲线继续温和变陡，净息差回升逻辑成立，银行板块可能迎 来新一轮上涨行情。 对银行股而言，若经济增长，银行可增加贷款发放，赚取更多利息；若 ...

嗯，很多人不理解。 到底什么是稳定币？ 和我们普通人有什么关系？ 简单说一下， 稳定币是一种数字货币。 上周有个大消息，是被忽视的。 5月19号，美国参议院以66票赞成32票反对通过了一项法案，这个法案的全称是《美国稳定币 创新 引导和建立法案》。 它是由私人机构发行的，比如你用1美元买了1个稳定币，那机构就会收到1美元，对应发行1个稳定 币，就把实物美元变成了虚拟美元。 任何货币，都会有 锚定物的。 稳定币的锚定物，就是美元。 而机构如果收到了大量的美元，就会去买美债。 就和我们各个国家，和美国进行贸易之后，收到大量美元，也会去买美债。 这个时候，你发现了吧。 稳定币，为什么会卡在5月份的时候突然推出。 这背后， 大概就是美国为了应对6月美债危机的一个大杀招。 美国gov准备绕开美联储去发行美债了。 同时还有一个事情，那就是5月23日，我们HK光速通过了稳定币条例草案。 紧随其后，这就不算是偶然了。 这里补充一下时间线的知识点。 6月份漂亮是有6.5万亿的美债要到期，但目前的美债收益率创下了新高。 10年期超过了4.5%，30年期超过5%。 漂亮肯定不想顶着高息发债，可5月15日美联储发声了，不会选择货币债 ...