交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年6月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 利多：厂家停减产计划，从智利进口碳酸锂量环比有所下行，锂辉石进口量有所下滑。 利空：矿石/盐湖端供给持续高位，下降幅度有限；动力电池端接货意愿不足。 主要逻辑：产能错配导致供强需弱，下行态势较难改变。 主要风险点：停减产/检修计划冲击，产业出清启动时间点。 4 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为18462吨 环比增长1 84% ， . , | 高于历史同期平均水平 | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本 ...

晨报 成材 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 重要声明： 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 20 日 成材：市场平淡 钢价低位盘整 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量上升 4.61 万吨至 212.18 万吨， 热卷产量上升 0.8 万吨至 325.45 万吨，五大材产量上升 9.66 万吨自 868.51 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 7.01 万吨至 551.07 万吨，热卷总库存 下降 5.24 万吨至 340.17 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests taking a short - selling approach on rallies for both finished products and raw materials [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate Transaction Data - From June 9th to June 15th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6088 million square meters, with a 24% month - on - month increase and a 3.6% year - on - year decrease; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1823 million square meters, with a 17.8% month - on - month increase and a 5.4% year - on - year increase [3] Steel Mill Cost and Profit - On June 17th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3262 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton, an average profit loss of 129 yuan/ton, and a valley - electricity profit loss of 26 yuan/ton [3] Market Situation and Suggestion - The finished products oscillated and sorted at a low level yesterday, with downstream demand seasonally weakened and difficult to improve effectively in the short term, while high - start and high - output situations still exist, presenting a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to try short - selling on rallies [3] - The view on raw materials is also to try short - selling on rallies [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为7.9万吨，环比有所增加2.60%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.2万吨，环比增长20.59%.需求有所抬升.多晶硅库 存为27.5万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为72800 吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为290元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为 66.28%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.23万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为568元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为633.38元/吨，再生铝开工 率为53.9%，环比持平，处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 成材 成材：基本面变化不大 钢价小幅反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 17 日 逻辑：国家统 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, the futures price is boosted by state purchasing, but the supply - demand imbalance of more supply and less demand will continue due to weight reduction of pigs for sale and stable consumption demand. In the long run, with profits in pig farming, there's little possibility of short - term capacity adjustment, and the spot price is likely to be under pressure. The prospects of frozen pork and second - round fattening demand are not good, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will persist [2] - In the egg market, as schools are on holiday, school demand declines, while tourism and catering demand rises. There's also replenishment demand during the "618" event. However, due to high temperature and humidity, egg storage time is shortened, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Overall demand remains weak, and there's no major positive factor to boost demand in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract was 13,780 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 14.28 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.58 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.98 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 500, up 280; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 800, up 300; in Sichuan, it was LH09 + 200, up 160 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on June 16: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.83, down 0.12 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.86, down 0.14 points. The average price of pork was 20.37 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; beef was 63.45 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton was 59.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; eggs were 7.28 yuan/kg, unchanged; white - striped chicken was 17.20 yuan/kg, up 0.2% [1] Market Analysis - The futures price is supported by state purchasing, but the weight reduction of pigs for sale is just starting, and the supply is expected to increase. With stable consumption demand, the oversupply situation will continue. There are still profits in pig farming, so there's little short - term capacity adjustment, and the spot price will likely be under pressure. The demand for frozen pork and second - round fattening won't increase significantly [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract was 3,582 yuan/500 kilograms yesterday, a change of + 26.00 yuan (+ 0.73%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.49 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.70 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.62 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD07 - 1092, up 64; in Shandong, it was JD07 - 882, up 74; in Hebei, it was JD07 - 962, up 34 [3] - On June 16, the national production - link inventory was 0.82 days, down 0.23 days from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.19 days, down 0.33 days [3] Market Analysis - School demand declines as schools are on holiday, while tourism and catering demand rises. There's also replenishment demand during the "618" event. However, due to high temperature and humidity, egg storage time is shortened, and traders are cautious in purchasing. Overall demand remains weak, and there's no major positive factor to boost demand in the short term [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Pig market strategy: Cautiously bearish [3] - Egg market strategy: Neutral [5] Core Views - The pig market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with potential for increased supply pressure in the future [2] - The egg market currently faces a situation of supply exceeding demand in the short term, with weak overall demand [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,600 yuan/ton, a change of +5.00 yuan/ton or +0.04% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 14.01 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.25 yuan/kg, also unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 13.88 yuan/kg, unchanged. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 20.28 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from yesterday [1] Market Analysis - With decent breeding profits, the supply side is unlikely to make significant strategic adjustments. Constrained by stable downstream consumption, the demand side is expected to remain weak, maintaining a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure of large fat pigs is currently high, and there may be a large - scale inversion of the price difference between fat and standard pigs, which will also put pressure on the supply of standard pigs [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract yesterday was 3,515 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +682.00 yuan or +24.07% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.56 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.70 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.56 yuan/jin, unchanged. On June 10, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.66 days, an increase of 0.11 days [3] Market Analysis - After the Dragon Boat Festival, all sectors actively cleared inventories, leading to a decline in demand. After the college entrance examination this week, school demand decreased, while tourism and catering demand increased. However, due to high temperature and humidity, the storage time of eggs is reduced, and traders are cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak overall demand. The market pattern of supply exceeding demand is difficult to change in the short term [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The majority of energy and chemical varieties have seen a decline after reaching a high, and the market remains uncertain [1]. - Most of the varieties analyzed have a bearish medium - term outlook, with varying short - term trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: Medium - term, there is a strong expectation of oversupply due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases. Short - term, geopolitical factors (unresolved US - Iran negotiations) and a warming macro - environment have pushed up oil prices, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is heavy [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term, it has a downward structure on the daily chart; short - term, an upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's trading continued to rise but with insufficient trading volume. The short - term support is at 474. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle for the short - term support to break [4]. EB (Styrene) - **Logic**: The cost side (pure benzene) has high port inventories and strong import increment expectations. Styrene port inventories are rising, supply is expected to remain high, and demand has not improved. It is bearish in the medium term [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today, it continued to rise and broke through the short - term pressure at 7270, showing signs of a trend reversal. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and then wait and see on the hourly cycle [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai rubber latex has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in supply after the main producing areas started harvesting. Terminal demand is weak due to high inventories in the automotive and tire industries. The possibility of a squeeze on 20 - rubber futures has decreased. It is bearish in the medium term [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the price rising and then falling. The short - term pressure is at 14000. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions and then look for new opportunities on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene, its raw material, is expected to increase due to the planned commissioning of cracking units in June and the second half of the year. High tire inventories are suppressing demand. It is bearish in the medium term [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 11470 on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: Supply - side profits have recovered, and PX units are restarting. Downstream PTA units are also resuming production. There are many maintenance plans in July, so the supply is expected to contract. The fundamentals are strong, but the cost - side drive from crude oil should be noted [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fell, with the increase in positions and price gains erased. The short - term pressure is between 6630 - 6660. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends on the hourly cycle [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Supply - side units that were under maintenance are restarting, and the operating rate has risen to 78.97%. Demand - side polyester profits are weak, and the operating rate has slightly declined to 91.3%. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. The impact of crude oil should be noted [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fell, with the increase in positions and price gains erased. The upper pressure is at 4720. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4720 on the hourly cycle [17]. PP - **Logic**: Demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale unit commissioning plans in June, so the supply is expected to increase. The cost fluctuations following crude oil need to be monitored [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the rebound did not break through the pressure and then fell. The short - term upper pressure is at 6980. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 6980 on the hourly cycle [19]. Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic unit profits have kept the domestic operating rate at a historical high, and imports have increased, leading to inventory accumulation. There is significant medium - term pressure on the market [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the daily chart and an upward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fluctuated within the day. The short - term support has moved up to 2260. The strategy is to wait and see for an opportunity to short after the support is broken on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downturn cycle, the downstream operating rate of PVC has reached the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and export demand has weakened. The supply - side operating rate is around the average of previous years. The fundamentals are bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term pressure is at 4980. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4850 on the hourly cycle [24]. EG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Logic**: Supply - side domestic unit unexpected maintenance has increased, and imports have decreased, leading to a tightened supply. Demand - side short - term polyester demand is acceptable. Inventory reduction provides some short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day without changing the downward trend. The short - term pressure has moved down to 4295. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 4295 on the hourly cycle [27]. Plastic - **Logic**: Recently, there have been many unit maintenance, keeping the overall operating rate low in the short term. However, there are large - scale unit commissioning plans in June and the second half of the year, so the supply is expected to increase. It is bearish in the medium term [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it rose and then fell, but the hourly closing price once broke through the short - term pressure at 7120. Although it fell back with a reduction in positions at the end of the session, the short - term downward structure is being tested. The strategy is to hold short positions, take profit as planned, and then wait and see on the hourly cycle [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with the price under pressure in the short - term and facing supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The egg market has a seasonal weakening in demand, and the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. The corn market has intensified supply - demand competition, with short - term price support and long - term upward drive but limited upside space [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the national spot price was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.09 yuan/kg, down 0.27 yuan/kg; the futures price of live pigs 2509 was 13460 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton; the 09 - contract basis was 630 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [4][15]. 3.1.2 Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and the performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September showed an increasing trend. Although the production capacity has been reduced, the overall reduction is limited. In June, the pressure of live pig slaughter is still high. The proportion of small pig slaughter decreased, and the proportion of large pig slaughter increased slightly. The average slaughter weight continued to decline [4]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume both declined. After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand fell, and downstream demand was poor. The cold - storage market demand was dull, but the cold - storage inventory was low, and the enthusiasm for cold - storage warehousing might increase as the pig price continued to fall [4]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The weekly piglet price dropped slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, the feed cost was low, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased slightly [4]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In June, the pressure of live pig slaughter is still high, and the overall consumption is difficult to perform well. The pig price still has a risk of decline, but the entry enthusiasm of secondary fattening and low cold - storage inventory limits the decline. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure [4]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - The futures price is at a discount. In the short - term, it fluctuates at a low level. Wait for the price to rebound to the resistance level and then go short [4]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.83 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price of the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin; the main egg contract 2507 closed at 2859 yuan/500 kg, down 79 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 279 yuan/500 kg, up 79 yuan/500 kg. The egg price is expected to run weakly and stably in the future [5]. 3.2.2 Supply End - In June, the number of newly - opened laying hens was relatively high. The current market supply is still relatively sufficient, which exerts pressure on the egg price. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, but the number of newly - opened laying hens may decrease in the fourth quarter [5]. 3.2.3 Demand End - After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand for replenishment and cold - storage warehousing increased, which supported the egg price, but the demand for eggs decreased seasonally, and the substitution consumption had support [5]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the egg price has certain support, but the demand weakens seasonally, and the supply is still sufficient, which exerts pressure on the egg price. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the supply pressure may be relieved in the fourth quarter [5]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - Temporarily wait and see for the 07 contract, be cautious about bottom - fishing; treat the 08 and 09 contracts bearishly, wait for the price to rebound and then go short; pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price for the 10 contract [5]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, stable compared with last Friday; the main corn contract 2507 closed at 2340 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; the main basis was - 30 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The corn price is expected to run narrowly in the future [6]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The listing of new wheat puts pressure on the corn price, and traders' willingness to sell corn increases, but the supply from the grass - roots level is basically over, and the inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of reduction, which supports the spot price [6]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives the increase in feed demand, but the narrowing of the corn - wheat price difference makes downstream buyers prefer wheat, and the deep - processing industry is in a loss state, with limited demand growth [7]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the supply - demand competition in the corn market intensifies, and the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship tightens, and the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Treat the overall trend as stable and slightly strong. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level, and go long at the lower limit of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate and adjust with a risk of decline; in the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large and the forward price rebound is under pressure. Egg prices are under pressure in the third quarter and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Palm oil shows short - term rebound but has limited long - term upside. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil also have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and trend moderately stronger in the long - term. Corn prices are expected to be moderately stronger, with short - term support and long - term upward drive but limited upside due to substitutes [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Spot price**: On June 4, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.1 - 14.3 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.2 - 15.8 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Market situation**: In June, the pig supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the overall consumption is weak. However, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and frozen product inventory entry still exists, limiting the decline of pig prices. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is at a low level and fluctuates in the short - term. Wait to short at the resistance level after the rebound. The resistance and support levels for different contracts are given [1]. 2. Egg - **Spot price**: On June 4, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.7 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Market situation**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand weakens, and the egg price support is limited. In the medium - term, the supply in the future may increase due to high replenishment in March - April 2025. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, be bearish in general; for the 10 contract, look for long opportunities at low prices [2]. 3. Oil Palm oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 1.44% to 3934 ringgit/ton [2]. - **Market situation**: In May, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved, the production increase slowed down, and the inventory accumulation was expected to slow down. The inventory in Indonesia decreased, and India has the demand to replenish inventory. In the long - term, the production will increase seasonally until October. In China, the palm oil inventory has recovered and will continue to rise [3][4]. - **Strategy**: The 08 contract may rebound in the short - term, pay attention to the performance at the 8000 resistance level. The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8300 [4][7]. Soybean oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.25% to 46.81 cents/pound [2]. - **Market situation**: The US biofuel blending plan is about to be announced. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and the soybean oil inventory has increased, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7500 - 8000 [7]. Rapeseed oil - **Market situation**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export is strong, and the old - crop inventory is declining. The new - crop sowing is normal. In China, the inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure is large. Pay attention to the changes in China - Canada relations [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9500 [7]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean 07 contract rose 7.25 cents to 1040.75 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2935 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate. In China, the soybean arrival increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price will trend moderately stronger [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will be range - bound in the short - term, and go long on dips after mid - June [8]. 5. Corn - **Spot price**: On June 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2460 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the supply increases, but the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited due to substitutes [8]. - **Strategy**: Be moderately bullish. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level, and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].