华福证券 2025 年 12 月 21 日 利率回落信用利差被动走扩 长久期弱资质城投承压 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251221 投资要点： ➢ 资金宽松带动利率回落，信用表现滞后利差走扩。本周资金宽松带动 中短端利率显著回落，收益率继续下行，1Y、3Y、5Y、7Y 和 10Y 期国开 债收益率较上周分别下行 4BP、5BP、3BP、1BP 和 2BP。除 5Y 期中低等 级外信用债收益率多数跟随利率下行，但表现相对滞后，信用利差多数继 续走阔。1Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1-2BP；3Y 期各等级信用债收益 率多数下行 3BP，AA 级下行 3BP；5Y 期 AAA 等级信用债收益率下行 1BP， 其余等级上行 2-3BP；7Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1BP；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用债收益率上行 1BP，其余等级下行 1BP。从信用利差来看，1Y 期 各等级信用利差上行 2-3BP；3Y 期各等级信用利差上行 3-5BP；5Y 期 AAA 等级信用债利差上行 2BP，其余等级上行 5-6BP；7Y 期各等级信用利差持 平；10Y 期 AAA 等级信用利差上行 3BP，其余等级上行 1BP。 ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 总量研究 信用债发行量环比下降，各行业信用利差涨跌互现 ——信用债周度观察（20251215-20251219） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 12 月 15 日至 12 月 19 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 347 只，发行规模总计 3705.49 亿元，环比减少 19.36%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 170 只，发行规模达 1633.10 亿元，环比 减少 12.44%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 44.07%；城投债共发行 138 只， 发行规模达 879.59 亿元，环比减少 0.96%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 23.74%；金融债共发行 39 只，发行规模达 1192.80 亿元，环比减少 35.24%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 32.19%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.63 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.38 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.14 年、金融债平均发行期限为 1. ...

来源：郁言债市 产业债低利差下的结构性机会 展望2026年，信用利差可能呈现低位高波的特点。信用利差中枢具备维持低位的基础。一方面，利率或震荡下行，节奏上"前慢后快"，央行延续呵护资金 面的态度，有助于信用利差维持低位震荡。另一方面，信用债市场整体信用风险相对较低，其中城投仍处于化债周期，城投债短期信用风险较低。产业债 以央国企为主，违约风险也较小。 同时，信用利差也可能受利率阶段性上行和机构行为扰动，呈现高波动特点。一方面，若基金销售费用新规落地较为严格，债基或仍有赎回压力，短久期 信用债可能面临一定抛压。另一方面，理财面临全面净值化的挑战，一旦利率上行或资金面边际收敛，或预防性赎回基金，导致信用债行情波动。 低利差格局下，市场将循着有票息的方向，布局更具性价比的品种。2026年，产业债配置需把握结构性机会，包括摊余债基开放带动中高评级5年左右配 置需求、超长债交易机会、永续品种利差挖掘、科创债成分券机会等。 一是摊余债基开放，或带动中高评级5年左右产业债配置机会。2026年，摊余债基封闭期5年左右产品集中在1-7月迎来开放期。其中1月，封闭期66个月和 63个月的摊余债基打开规模最大，为622亿元，其次是 ...

信用利差周报 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 202 5 年 1 2 月 8 日—12 月 12 日 总第 589 期 2025 年第 47 期 债券市场研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 郝云龙 ylhao@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【信用利差快报 2025 年第 46 期】情绪波 动债市有所调整，政治局会议定调积极政 策稳预期 2025-12-10 【信用利差快报 2025 年第 45 期】交易商 协会优化并购票据工作机制，民营创投科 创债扩容 2025-12-3 【信用利差快报 2025 年第 44 期】LPR 连续 六个月持平，外币主权债券接力发行 2025-11-25 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 43 期】货币政 策报告延续宽松基调，香港百亿数字绿债 落地 2025-11-19 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 42 期】首单科 创可转债获批加强股债联动，债券收益率 走势分化 ...

来源：市场资讯 收益率结构方面，STRD 相较 STRF 仍保持约320个基点的溢价。一般观点认为，这一差距更多源于资 本结构中的层级定位，而非短期偿付能力差异。EasyMarkets易信表示，在收益率曲线逐步成形的背景 下，不同风险偏好的投资者正在根据自身需求重新配置优先股头寸。 从发行数据看，STRD 在近期 ATM 发行中占据主导地位，单周募资规模创下新高。EasyMarkets易信认 为，这一现象显示市场资金正在向收益率更高的次级优先股集中，反映出投资者在当前环境下对收益与 风险平衡的重新取舍。整体来看，STRD 利差变化与发行节奏的同步，或将成为观察市场情绪与资金流 向的重要参考指标。 从利差走势来看，STRD 相对于美国10年期国债的利差一度降至阶段性低点，EasyMarkets易信认为， 这通常意味着市场对该优先股的需求增强，同时对发行方信用质量的认知正在改善。即便在比特币回调 引发短期利差反弹的情况下，整体趋势仍显示风险溢价较此前明显下降。 在基本面层面，市场重新评估 Strategy 的资产负债结构与现金流安全性。EasyMarkets易信认为，设立 覆盖21个月股息的储备金，为优先股投资者 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the primary market, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with the issuance amount of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and commercial paper increasing, while that of enterprise bonds and private placement notes decreasing. The net financing of credit bonds also increased month - on - month, with corporate bonds and medium - term notes showing an increase in net financing, and the net financing of enterprise bonds and private placement notes being negative [2][14][60]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the trading volume of each variety increased. Most of the yields of credit bonds declined, and most of the credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds widened. Most spreads are at historical lows [2][19][60]. - From an absolute return perspective, the supply shortage and relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. In the long run, the yield is still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of most varieties has decreased, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. The coupon strategy can be moderately optimistic in the current allocation, and the trading strategy can remain optimistic [2][60]. - From a relative return perspective, although the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient at present, the probability of a one - sided correction in the short term is also low. Therefore, investors can still achieve the coupon strategy through credit downgrading and extending the duration according to their own capital characteristics, but they need to pay attention to the rhythm during the allocation [2][60]. - For real estate bonds, as the market gradually stabilizes, funds with high risk appetite can consider early layout, focusing on enterprises with outstanding performance in new financing and sales recovery. The focus of allocation is still on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Investors can extend the duration to increase returns and also appropriately play the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of bonds of over - sold real estate enterprises [3][65]. - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. Investors can consider a credit - downgrading strategy for the medium - and short - term in the allocation, and choose to extend the duration for high - grade bonds in the trading [4][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Situation - **Issuance and Maturity Scale**: From December 8th to December 14th, a total of 326 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 275.038 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.09%. The net financing of credit bonds was 73.256 billion yuan, an increase of 19.097 billion yuan month - on - month. By variety, the issuance of enterprise bonds was 0, with a net financing of - 7.287 billion yuan; corporate bonds issued 113 with an issuance amount of 78.848 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.17%, and a net financing of 25.131 billion yuan; medium - term notes issued 105 with an issuance amount of 94.198 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 52.96%, and a net financing of 41.148 billion yuan; commercial paper issued 92 with an issuance amount of 93.257 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.09%, and a net financing of 18.52 billion yuan; private placement notes issued 16 with an issuance amount of 8.735 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 28.25%, and a net financing of - 4.256 billion yuan [14]. - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance guidance rates announced by the Dealers Association all increased, with an overall change range of 1 - 4 BP. By tenor, the 1 - year variety had a rate change range of 1 - 4 BP, the 3 - year variety 2 - 4 BP, the 5 - year variety 2 - 3 BP, and the 7 - year variety 1 - 3 BP. By rating, the key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties had a rate change range of 1 - 3 BP, the AA + - rated variety 2 - 4 BP, the AA - rated variety 3 - 4 BP, and the AA - - rated variety 1 - 4 BP [15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Market Trading Volume**: From December 8th to December 14th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 915.761 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.02%. The trading volumes of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 23.503 billion yuan, 357.775 billion yuan, 294.033 billion yuan, 183.844 billion yuan, and 56.606 billion yuan respectively [19]. - **Credit Spreads**: In medium - and short - term notes, most credit spreads widened. In enterprise bonds, most credit spreads also widened. In urban investment bonds, most credit spreads widened as well [22][29][37]. - **Term Spreads and Rating Spreads**: For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 2.44 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 2.88 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 4.68 BP. For 3 - year medium - and short - term notes, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged from the previous period [44]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics - **Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics**: From December 8th to December 14th, the rating (including outlook) of one company was adjusted, which was an upgrade. Xi'an High - tech Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd. was upgraded from AA + / Stable to AAA / Stable by Zhongzheng Pengyuan [57][58]. - **Default and Extension Bond Statistics**: There were no credit bond defaults or extensions from December 8th to December 14th [59]. 3.4 Investment Views The report reiterates the situation of the primary and secondary markets of credit bonds, and provides investment strategies from absolute and relative return perspectives. It also gives investment suggestions for real estate bonds and urban investment bonds [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the number and scale of credit bond defaults decreased significantly, and the credit environment improved. The number of defaulted bonds was 16, with a total default amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively [1][11]. - All first - time defaulting entities in 2025 were non - state - owned enterprises, and the number of defaults in the real estate industry decreased. Looking ahead to 2026, real estate may still be the main risk point in the credit bond market, and local risks of some weak - qualified small and medium - sized financial institutions should be vigilant, but the probability of a systemic impact on the market is low [1][13]. - The default rate dropped to a historically low level. In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014 [1][22]. - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Default Quantity and Scale Decreased Significantly, Credit Environment Improved**: In 2025, the number and amount of defaulted credit bonds continued the downward trend of the previous year. There were 16 defaulted bonds with a total amount of 15.084 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 54 bonds and 77.145 billion yuan respectively. From 2014 - 2025, substantial defaults were the main type in the credit bond market (73.4%), and in 2025, there were 11 substantial defaults and 5 extensions [11]. - **First - time Defaulting Entities were All Non - state - owned Enterprises, Real Estate Industry Default Quantity Decreased**: The 16 first - time defaulted bonds in 2025 came from 12 non - state - owned enterprise issuers, covering 6 industries such as real estate and non - bank finance. Historically, non - state - owned enterprises had significantly more defaults than state - owned enterprises. The real estate industry was still the main risk point in 2026, and local risks of some small and medium - sized financial institutions should be watched out for [13][17]. - **Default Rate Dropped to a Historically Low Level**: In 2025, the marginal default rate was 0.22%, the second - lowest since 2014. The overall recovery rate from 2014 to 2025 was 13.76%, with state - owned enterprises having a higher recovery rate of 27.12% than non - state - owned enterprises at 10.28% [22]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - Last week, after an important meeting released a signal of monetary easing, credit bond yields turned downward in the second half of the week but the repair momentum was weak. Overall, credit bond yields showed mixed trends, with financial bonds performing better than non - financial credit bonds, and the 3 - year non - financial credit bonds performing better [27]. - Wealth management scale and the proportion of broken - net products decreased. The average yield of wealth management products had been declining for 6 consecutive weeks since early November. Looking forward, due to the impact of wealth management funds returning to the balance sheet at the end of the quarter, incremental funds may be limited, and there is insufficient impetus to compress credit spreads. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy. Institutions with stable liability ends can moderately participate in 3 - year medium - and high - grade bank secondary and perpetual bonds and securities firm subordinated bonds with relatively high spreads [29][36]. 3.3 Primary Market - **Issuance Volume**: Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the net financing scale decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds and financial bonds decreased month - on - month, while that of industrial bonds increased [37]. - **Issuance Cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased slightly. The average issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased month - on - month, while that of industrial and financial bonds decreased [45]. - **Issuance Term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The issuance terms of industrial and financial bonds decreased, while that of urban investment bonds increased [47]. - **Cancellation of Issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances decreased last week [53]. 3.4 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Except for the trading volume of securities firm subordinated bonds, the trading volume of other types of credit bonds rebounded last week, with the trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds increasing by over 13 billion yuan. The trading terms of different types of bonds showed different trends in terms of remaining maturity and implied rating [57][58]. - **Trading Liquidity**: The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of different terms of each type of bond also showed different trends [59]. - **Spread Tracking**: Last week, most urban investment bond spreads widened, with the 10 - year AA + grade urban investment bond spreads widening the most. Most industrial bond spreads also widened, with the real estate industry having the largest spread widening for both AAA and AA grades. Most bank secondary and perpetual bond spreads narrowed, while the spreads of securities firm subordinated bonds widened across the board, and most insurance subordinated bond spreads narrowed [65][73][76]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scoring, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [80]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review Last week, 3 bonds had their debt ratings downgraded, and there were no upgrades [84].

利率回暖信用债企稳 二永债表现相对强势 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251212 投资要点： 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 14 日 ➢ 利率震荡下行信用债企稳，信用利差多数略有走阔。本周利率债总体 震荡偏强，信用债除 7Y 期品种外，收益率多数跟随利率下行。1Y 期 AA 及以上等级信用债收益率下行 1BP，AA-级下行 7BP；3Y 期各等级信用债 收益下行 1-3BP；5Y 期 AAA 级信用债收益率下行 3BP，AA+级持平，AA 级上行 2BP，AA-级下行 1BP；7Y 期各等级信用债收益率上行 1-2BP；10Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 1BP。信用利差多数略有走阔。 ➢ 本周城投债利差多数上行 1-2BP。外部评级 AA 和 AA+平台信用利差 总体较上周均上行 2BP，AAA 平台总体上行 1BP。分行政级别来看，省级、 地市级和区县级平台信用利差总体较上周均上行 2BP。 ➢ 产业债利差总体上行，混合所有制和民企地产债利差升幅较大。本周 央国企地产债利差上行 3-4BP，混合所有制地产债利差上行 17BP，民企地 产债利差上行 26BP。各等级煤炭债利差上行 1BP；AAA 等级钢铁 ...

再次，2026 年摊余债基集中开放，预计规模超 6000 亿元，如果部 分产品转为信用风格，或提振对应期限信用债需求，更利好中高评 级 5 年、3 年左右品种。 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2026 产业债，低利差下的结构博弈 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之七 [Table_Summary] ►2026 年，信用债需求或放缓 需求端，增量资金或放缓。首先，存款利率下降或继续推动居民资 产向理财产品迁移，2026 年理财规模有望延续稳步增长。但平滑净 值手段整改完毕，叠加低利差环境，理财配置信用债的占比或难上 升 。2025Q2 理财配置信用债占比为 38.8%，较 2024Q4 下降 2.3pct。 其次，基金销售费用新规对信用债影响较大的是短债、中短债基金 的赎回压力。以 25Q3 纯债基金持仓债券规模为基础，假设短债、 中短债基金赎回比例在 20%-40%，中长债基金、指数型基金赎回比 例在 10%-20%，涉及债券规模约 1.04-2.07 万亿元，其中信用债规 模约 3309-6618 亿元。 证券研究报告|固收研究 ...

证券研究报告 分化格局，更宜求稳 ——2026年信用债年度策略 证券分析师 刘 璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 张君瑞 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519080001 2025年12月14日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 摘要 2025年信用利差压缩，低等级利差大幅压缩，说明2025年信用债市场以"合"为大势。国开债收益率上升，信用债收益率上行相对较少；信用利差 多压缩，其中低等级和1Y压缩最多。趋势上看，中高等级信用利差上半年压缩下半年有所分化，低等级信用利差以下行趋势为主。2025年信用债供 给弱于利率债，需求相对平稳，信用风险进一步降低，支撑了信用利差、尤其是低等级信用利差的压缩。 2026年信用债不具备走熊的基础，但信用利差或有一定的走阔风险，分化或有所增大。（1）从绝对收益角度看，目前信用债收益率和信用利差偏 低，但3年期投资级信用债的套息空间接近50BP，考虑到26年或有1-2次降息，信用债不具备走熊的基础，因此信用债仍具有票息价值。（2）从相 对收益角度看，26年信用债供需格局或不如利率债。2026年信用债供给或边际提升，利率债或持平，信用债相对于利率债供给或增加。需求方面， 理 ...