Group 1 - The report highlights that the credit spread for bonds with maturities of 5 years or less is expected to compress further or maintain low volatility, with a focus on the influx of investment into long-duration credit bonds [2][3] - In January, the credit bond market showed strong sentiment, driven by the implementation of new fund fee regulations and strong institutional allocation, leading to a significant compression of credit spreads [12][15] - The report suggests that long-duration credit bonds are currently in a favorable positioning window, but trading should be executed with timely profit-taking [3][4] Group 2 - The strategy for credit bonds emphasizes identifying structural opportunities in the short to medium-term bonds while positioning for long-duration credits and ensuring timely exits [3][4] - The report indicates that the performance of credit bonds typically outperforms interest rate bonds, with credit spreads narrowing during February, influenced by seasonal factors and market dynamics [17][23] - The analysis of the secondary market shows a general decline in credit bond yields and a compression of credit spreads across various categories [8][15] Group 3 - The report discusses specific sector strategies, including opportunities in urban investment bonds, real estate bonds, coal bonds, and steel bonds, highlighting the importance of selecting high-quality issuers and considering market conditions [5][6] - It notes that the net financing of credit bonds has decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month, with a rising proportion of long-duration issuances [9][22] - The report emphasizes the need for careful selection of bonds based on liquidity, convexity, and market conditions, particularly for long-duration credit bonds [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate, and the coupon strategy may remain a relatively prudent choice. With low credit spreads and the need to control duration risk, investment strategies can focus on the refined exploration of variety spreads, increasing the allocation of low - credit - risk and high - absolute - return varieties [1][2] - Secondary perpetual bonds still have investment value, but their volatility may increase. It is recommended that trading desks control their positions according to their liability - side conditions and try reverse operations [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Credit Bonds: Explore Variety Spreads, Pay Attention to Volatility Risks of Secondary Perpetual Bonds 3.1.1 Low Credit Spreads, Focus on Variety Spread Exploration - In January, the long - end interest rate showed a trend of "rapid rise → rapid fall → slow fall", credit bond yields declined, and credit spreads narrowed across the board. Medium - and low - rated bonds outperformed high - rated ones, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [10][11] - In February, the bond market may continue to fluctuate. For accounts with unstable liability sides, it is not recommended to chase long - term credit. Focusing on medium - and short - term varieties may be relatively advantageous. After the spread compression in January, credit spreads are generally at a low level [14][15] - Investment strategies can focus on three aspects: exploring the spreads of perpetual varieties, seizing the allocation opportunities of brokerage bonds and brokerage sub - bonds, and grasping the "oversold" repair opportunities of science and technology innovation bond component bonds [18] 3.1.2 Secondary Perpetual Bonds Still Have Allocation Value, but Volatility May Increase - In January 2026, bank secondary perpetual bonds had a catch - up rally, with yields declining across the board and credit spreads narrowing, generally outperforming ordinary credit bonds. This rally was mainly driven by funds, while insurance's net buying volume gradually decreased [32][33] - 3 - 5 - year large - bank secondary perpetual bonds still have certain allocation value for accounts with stable liability sides. However, with the rapid entry of trading - desk funds such as funds and the reduction of insurance's buying volume, the volatility of secondary perpetual bonds may increase [39] 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, Medium - and Long - Term Transaction Activity Rose - In January, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The issuance proportion of medium - and long - term urban investment bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate decreased across the board [42] - The yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term and low - grade varieties performing better. The trading sentiment of urban investment bonds improved, and the medium - and long - term transaction activity increased [48][54] 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Short - End Issuance Proportion Increased, Medium - and Long - Term Secondary Performance was Superior - In January, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The short - term issuance proportion of industrial bonds continued to rise, and the issuance interest rate generally declined [57] - The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties showing obvious repair. Most industries' public offering bond yields declined, and medium - and long - term varieties performed better [59][62] 3.4 Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds: Transaction Sentiment Warmed Up, Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Significantly Repaired - In January 2026, there were no new bank secondary perpetual bond issuances, and the net financing was - 415 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 36.1 billion yuan [65] - The yields of bank secondary perpetual bonds declined across the board in January, with medium - and long - term varieties significantly repaired. The trading sentiment of bank secondary perpetual bonds warmed up, and the transaction of city commercial bank secondary perpetual bonds spread to medium - and low - grade bonds [71][74]

报告摘要 （一）本周和未来一周的海外重要经济数据 文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 核心观点 高频来看，美国初请失业金人数仍处于低位，海外大宗商品价格大幅上涨但周五明显回调，美国汽油零售 价持续反弹，美国信用利差有所扩大。经济数据方面，美国去年12月PPI环比超预期，欧元区四季度GDP好 于预期，日本1月东京CPI低于预期。关注即将公布：美国1月ISM制造业（2/2）、1月非农数据（2/2）、2 月密歇根消费者信心指数（2/6），欧元区1月CPI（2/4）、欧央行利率决议（2/5）。 1 月 26 日 -30 日当周，美国： 去年 11 月耐用品订单环比初值好于预期，去年 12 月 PPI 环比超预期， 1 月世界大型企业研究会消费者信心指数低于预期， 1 月 MNI 芝加哥 PMI 好于预期。 欧元区 ：去年 4 季 度 GDP 好于预期，去年 12 月失业率好于预期。 日本 ： 去年 12 月工业产值好于预期， 1 月东京 CPI 低 于预期，去年 12 月失业率符合预期，去年 12 月零售环比低于预期。 2 月 2 日 ...

跨年债市的关键：供需错配的节奏 20260201 摘要 超长债供需失衡是市场主导逻辑，配置需求不足时债市风险加大，需求 增加则利率修复。当前经济环境改善，利率震荡上行，但短期需警惕供 需错位，春节后操作需谨慎。 机构不缺资金但缺乏利率风险指标（VAE），大行负债稳定但贷款一般， 超长债发行对银行 EV 指标构成压力，监管限制下，银行需市场化手段 应对超长债发行压力。 地方债和特别国债发行通过套保机制将利率上行压力转移至长期国债， 未来需密切关注这些因素对市场的影响，操作上保持谨慎。 上半年债券市场供需矛盾难以彻底解决，不仅是央行投放资金问题，还 涉及利率风险指标的系统性影响。2 月地方债发行量预计达 9,000 亿至 1 万亿元，发行冲击或超预期。 10 年以内国债相对安全，30 年以上国债需关注地方债一级发行利率对 二级市场的影响。节后长久期资产供应增加，配置需求不足，需保持谨 慎。 Q&A 2025 年 12 月债市走弱，2026 年 1 月中下旬债市修复后，目前债市进入平 台期或瓶颈期。请问在这种情况下，年前和跨年后的机会点和风险点在哪里？ 当前债市的主要逻辑是供需关系。一季度甚至整个上半年，供需矛盾将 ...

Market Overview - The credit bond market has transitioned from a "continuous recovery" phase to a "consolidation" phase, with marginal momentum weakening[7] - The overall yield of credit bonds has shown fluctuations, supported by configuration demand, leading to a flattening of the credit bond curve[7] - The net financing for major credit bond varieties was 1,497.8 billion CNY, remaining stable compared to the previous week[11] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a return to a focus on coupon income, emphasizing 2-3 year maturity products while ensuring manageable credit quality[8] - For long-term funds with excess allocation needs, attention should be given to 5-year and longer maturities during market fluctuations[8] Market Dynamics - In the secondary market, total transactions decreased to 8,813.3 billion CNY, down 498.47 billion CNY from the previous week[14] - The 3-year AAA medium-term note yield decreased by 0.05 basis points to 1.85%, while the 3-year AA+ and AA medium-term note yields fell by 2.05 and 4.05 basis points, respectively[14] Credit Rating Adjustments - Seven issuers had their ratings upgraded, including Shaoxing City Shangyu Water Group and Wuxi Huaguang Environmental Energy Group[21] - No new defaults were reported, but one bond, H20 Yuzhou 1, was extended, with a balance of 846 million CNY[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in fundamentals, monetary policy not meeting expectations, and possible data inaccuracies[23]

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, a total of 445 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 470.374 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week increase of 21.90% [4] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 240.177 billion yuan (51.06% of total), city investment bonds accounted for 118.297 billion yuan (25.15%), and financial bonds accounted for 111.9 billion yuan (23.79%) [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.63 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.28 years, city investment bonds 3.25 years, and financial bonds 1.80 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.09%, with industrial bonds at 2.01%, city investment bonds at 2.23%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [4] Group 2: Secondary Market - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1,601.302 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.09% [8] - The top three categories by trading volume were commercial bank bonds (545.925 billion yuan, 34.09% of total), corporate bonds (455.439 billion yuan, 28.44%), and medium-term notes (338.276 billion yuan, 21.13%) [8] Group 3: Credit Spread - In the AAA-rated sector, the largest increase in credit spreads was seen in the automotive industry, which rose by 3.6 basis points, while the largest decrease was in light manufacturing, which fell by 9.7 basis points [7] - For AA+ rated sectors, the construction materials industry saw the largest increase of 2.9 basis points, while the food and beverage sector experienced a decrease of 5.7 basis points [7] - Among AA-rated sectors, the media industry had the largest increase in credit spreads at 20.8 basis points, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector saw a decrease of 5.6 basis points [7] - Regionally, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Guangdong (2.8 basis points), while the largest decrease was in Yunnan (7.9 basis points) [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates are fluctuating narrowly, credit bond yields have slightly declined, and most credit spreads are still narrowing. [3][9] - Most urban investment bond spreads have decreased by 1 - 2BP. [14] - Real - estate bond spreads are still widening, while most other industrial bond spreads are converging. [25] - This week, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - and - Perpetual bonds, "Two - and - Perpetual" bonds refer to bank Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds) have shown weak performance. Except for the 5Y variety, most yields have increased. [4][33] - The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has narrowed, while the excess spread of urban investment bonds has shown differentiation. [4][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest rates are fluctuating narrowly, credit bond yields have slightly declined, and most credit spreads are still narrowing - Interest - rate bond yields fluctuated narrowly. The yields of 1Y and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased by 1BP, the yield of 3Y decreased by 1BP, and the yields of 5Y and 7Y remained flat. [3][9] - Credit bond yields generally declined slightly. The yields of 1Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds increased by 1BP, while the other grades remained flat; the yield of 3Y AAA remained flat, and the other grades decreased by 2 - 4BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades increased by 1BP; the yields of 7Y all grades decreased by 1 - 3BP; the yields of 10Y all grades increased by 1BP. [3][9] - Most credit spreads slightly converged. The credit spreads of 1Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades narrowed by 1BP; the spread of 3Y AAA increased by 1BP, the spread of AA - decreased by 1BP, and the other grades compressed by 3BP; the spreads of 5Y AA + and above - grade remained flat, and the other grades widened by 1BP; the spreads of 7Y all grades narrowed by 1 - 3BP; the spreads of 10Y all grades narrowed by 1BP. [3][9] 3.2 Most urban investment bond spreads have decreased by 1 - 2BP - In terms of external ratings, the credit spreads of external - rated AAA platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of AA + and AA platforms generally decreased by 2BP. [14] - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial - level platforms generally decreased by 1BP compared with last week, and the credit spreads of prefecture - level and district - county - level platforms generally decreased by 2BP. [19] 3.3 Real - estate bond spreads are still widening, while most other industrial bond spreads are converging - Most industrial bond spreads converged. The spread of Vanke continued to compress significantly, but the spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds and other private - enterprise real - estate bonds still widened overall. [25] - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds widened by 1 - 3BP, the spread of mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 188BP, and the spread of private - enterprise real - estate bonds increased by 15BP. [25] - The spread of Longfor decreased by 2BP, that of CIFI increased by 49BP, that of Vanke decreased by 1802BP, that of Midea Real Estate decreased by 1BP, that of Huafa increased by 13BP, and that of Poly increased by 3BP. [25] - The spread of AA - grade coal bonds increased by 1BP, and the other grades decreased by 1BP; the spread of AAA - grade steel bonds remained flat, and that of AA + decreased by 2BP; the spread of AAA - grade chemical bonds remained flat, and that of AA + decreased by 1BP. [25] 3.4 This week, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have shown weak performance. Except for the 5Y variety, most yields have increased - The yields of 1Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds remained flat, and the spreads decreased by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads increased by 0 - 1BP. [33] - The yields of 3Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads widened by 3 - 4BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds remained flat, and the spreads widened by 1BP. [33] - The yields of 5Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds decreased by 0 - 2BP, the yields of perpetual bonds remained flat, and the spreads changed by the same margin. [33] - The yields of 10Y all - grade Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2 - 5BP, and the spreads widened by 1 - 3BP; the yields of perpetual bonds increased by 5BP, and the spreads increased by 3BP. [33] 3.5 The excess spread of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds has narrowed, while the excess spread of urban investment bonds has shown differentiation - The excess spread of industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds converged by 0.76BP compared with last week to 13.91BP, at the 36.17% percentile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds remained the same as last week at 13.21BP, at the 33.60% percentile since 2015. [36] - The excess spread of urban - investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 0.83BP to 4.86BP, at the 5.43% percentile. The excess spread of urban - investment 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 3.72BP to 9.62BP, at the 11.15% percentile. [36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium - and Short - Term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data. The historical percentiles are since the beginning of 2015. [38] - The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical percentiles are since the beginning of 2015. [38] - The credit spreads of industrial and urban - investment individual bonds = the ChinaBond valuation (exercise) of individual bonds - the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by the linear interpolation method), and finally the arithmetic average method is used to calculate the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban - investment bonds. [40] - The excess spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds = the credit spread of bank Tier 2 capital bonds/perpetual bonds - the credit spread of bank ordinary bonds of the same grade and term. The excess spread of industrial/urban - investment perpetual bonds = the credit spread of industrial/urban - investment perpetual bonds - the credit spread of medium - term notes of the same grade and term. [40] - Sample screening criteria and other information: Both industrial and urban - investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bond samples, and exclude guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it will be excluded from the statistical samples. Industrial and urban - investment bonds are all external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings. [40]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 债市延续修复，中长普信债表现偏强 ——信用周报 20260131 本周信用债收益率、信用利差走势分化。本周权益高位震荡，年初配置行情 延续叠加央行创新货币政策工具催化，收益率延续修复。全周来看，信用债表 现强于利率债。3y 及以上中长端普信债、2-4y 券商次级债收益率有所下行， 利差有所收窄，其中 3-4y 普信债、5y 城投、4y 券商次级债表现相对占优；其 余品种收益率多数上行，除 1y 品种外利差以走阔为主。近期仍处于摊余债基 开放高峰，3-5y 品种普信债利差进一步压缩。 热点重点政策及热点事件 1、央行副行长表示将增加离岸人民币国债供给规模。这一举措有利于满足境 外投资者对优质人民币资产配置的需要，活跃市场交易、提升人民币定价能力。 2、吉林省成功退出地方债务重点省份。吉林省债务体量相对较小，率先退出 重点省份基本符合市场预期，可重点关注退重点省份后区域发展机会及发债主 体新增融资空间。 3、万科公布与深铁 23.6 亿借款方案。借款方案背靠深铁将为债券部分兑付提 供资金保障，万科债务风险的缓释有助于阶段性稳定市场预期。 4、多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Credit bond issuance volume increased overall on a week - on - week basis, and credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends [1] - The trading volume of credit bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis [4] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, a total of 445 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 470.374 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 21.90% [11] - In terms of issuance scale, 197 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 240.177 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 17.79%, accounting for 51.06% of the total credit bond issuance scale; 202 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 118.297 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 28.38%, accounting for 25.15%; 46 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 111.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 24.58%, accounting for 23.79% [11] - In terms of issuance term, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.63 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.28 years, urban investment bonds was 3.25 years, and financial bonds was 1.80 years [14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.09%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.01%, urban investment bonds was 2.23%, and financial bonds was 1.83% [2] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - One credit bond's issuance was cancelled this week [23] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - This week, industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. Among Shenwan primary industries, for AAA - rated industries, the largest increase in credit spreads was in the automobile industry (3.6BP), and the largest decrease was in the light industry manufacturing (9.7BP); for AA + - rated industries, the largest increase was in the building materials industry (2.9BP), and the largest decrease was in the food and beverage industry (5.7BP); for AA - rated industries, the largest increase was in the media industry (20.8BP), and the largest decrease was in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry (5.6BP) [3] - Coal and steel credit spreads showed mixed trends. For coal, the credit spreads of AAA, AA + and AA levels decreased by 0.4BP, 2.5BP and increased by 1.6BP respectively. For steel, the credit spreads of AAA and AA + levels increased by 2.4BP and decreased by 4.3BP respectively [25] - Credit spreads of urban investment bonds at all levels showed mixed trends, while non - urban investment credit spreads decreased overall. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds at three levels increased by 0.3BP, decreased by 0.8BP and 1.3BP respectively; the credit spreads of non - urban investment bonds at three levels decreased by 0.1BP, 0.3BP and 1BP respectively [25] - State - owned enterprise credit spreads showed mixed trends, while private enterprise credit spreads decreased overall. The credit spreads of central state - owned enterprises at three levels increased by 1.2BP, decreased by 0.7BP and 2.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of local state - owned enterprises at three levels increased by 0.4BP, decreased by 0.2BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of private enterprises at AAA and AA + levels decreased by 4.2BP and 2.1BP respectively [25] - Regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. The regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads were Yunnan, Liaoning and Shaanxi, with credit spreads of 90, 85 and 79BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Gansu and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 122, 118 and 115BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Sichuan, Guangxi and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 133, 124 and 121BPs respectively. In terms of week - on - week changes, the region with the largest increase in AAA - rated credit spreads was Guangdong (2.8BP), and the largest decrease was Yunnan (7.9BP); the region with the largest increase in AA + - rated credit spreads was Gansu (1.6BP), and the largest decrease was Shaanxi (6.7BP); the region with the largest increase in AA - rated credit spreads was Shanghai (1.3BP), and the largest decrease was Shandong (3.9BP) [27] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1601.302 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09%. Among various credit bonds, the top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 545.925 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.96%, accounting for 34.09% of the total credit bond trading volume; the trading volume of corporate bonds was 455.439 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 2.46%, accounting for 28.44%; the trading volume of medium - term notes was 338.276 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63%, accounting for 21.13% [28] 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - According to DM client data, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week are provided for investors' reference [30]

固 定 收 益 2026 年 01 月 29 日 25 年 11-12 月城投债延续净融资 首次发债主体 数量继续放量——25 年 11-12 月城投债发行审批跟踪 25 年 11-12 月城投债延续净融资 首次发债主体数量明显增加 固 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 11、12 月城投债净融资规模分别为 307 亿元和 150 亿元，合计 457 亿元。其中，11 月交易所城投债由 10 月的净融资转为净偿还 82 亿元， 12 月再度转为净融资 73 亿元；11 月协会产品转为净融资 389 亿元， 12 月回落至 77 亿元。12 月广东、山东、北京、四川等 14 个省市城投 债净融资为正，江苏、浙江、陕西等 14 个省市 12 月城投债净偿还。 2025 年全年共 18 个省市城投债净融资规模为正，其中广东和山东的 净融资规模较大，其余 13 个城投债净偿还的省市中江苏、湖南、重庆 等地净偿还规模较大。相比于 2024 年，近一年内天津的城投债净偿还 规模大幅减少，广东的净融资规模大幅上升，浙江和甘肃由大规模净 偿还转为净融资，而福建、四川的净融资规模大幅减少，重庆、湖南 的净偿还规模大幅上升，江西、上海 ...