1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of July 28, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds in the outstanding credit bonds are generally higher than other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have been adjusted, and the yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual real estate bonds have increased across the board. In the financial bonds, the yields of various financial varieties have basically increased [3][4][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Credit Bond Situation - The weighted average valuation yields and spreads of different types of credit bonds (including urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds) are presented, along with their changes compared to last week [13][15][16]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are below 2.4%. Yields exceeding 4.5% are found in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. Higher spreads are also observed in regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, and Gansu. Compared with last week, the yields of public urban investment bonds have generally increased, with the 2 - 3 - year varieties having a larger adjustment range [3][26]. - Specific varieties with a large increase in yields include 2 - 3 - year Anhui provincial perpetual bonds, 1 - year - within Gansu prefecture - level non - perpetual bonds, 1 - 2 - year Liaoning prefecture - level non - perpetual bonds, and 2 - 3 - year Hainan provincial perpetual urban investment bonds [26]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 2.9%. Yields higher than 4% are found in prefecture - level areas of Guizhou. Higher spreads are also present in Shaanxi, Yunnan, Gansu, etc. Compared with last week, the yields of private urban investment bonds have mainly increased. The varieties with a large increase in yields are 3 - 5 - year Guangxi district - county - level non - perpetual bonds, 1 - 2 - year Ningxia prefecture - level non - perpetual bonds, 2 - 3 - year Guizhou district - county - level non - perpetual bonds, and 1 - 2 - year Guangxi provincial non - perpetual urban investment bonds, with increases of 18.8BP, 15.6BP, 14.1BP, and 12.7BP respectively [3][40]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds are generally higher than other varieties. - For non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds, the yields have been adjusted. The 2 - 3 - year private enterprise public perpetual varieties have a relatively larger increase, with an average increase of 147.5BP. In real estate bonds, the yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual varieties have increased across the board, and the yields of 1 - 2 - year private enterprise public non - perpetual varieties have increased by 11.1BP [4][13]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - Varieties with high valuation yields and spreads include leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. - Compared with last week, the yields of various financial varieties have basically increased. In leasing bonds, the 1 - 2 - year varieties have a larger increase, with an average of about 10BP. In general commercial financial bonds, the interest rates of each variety have increased, with an amplitude of 4 to 7BP. In secondary perpetual bonds, the increase in the yields of rural commercial bank secondary capital bonds mostly exceeds that of other bank varieties, and the increase in the yields of rural commercial bank secondary bonds within 1 year and 2 - 3 years is greater than 20BP. In addition, in securities company bonds and sub - bonds, the increase in the yields of 3 - 5 - year securities company private non - perpetual sub - bonds exceeds 10BP [5][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - During the period from July 21st to July 27th, most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) declined, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 2 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the issuance amount of each variety increased. The net financing of credit bonds increased month - on - month. The yield of credit bonds all increased, and the credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds mostly widened, but the 7 - year varieties still mainly narrowed. [1][58] - From an absolute return perspective, after adjustment, the yields of most varieties have retraced to the level of 2 months ago, but the conditions for a trend reversal of credit bonds are still insufficient. Supply shortage and relatively strong allocation demand will still support credit bonds, and the marginal loosening of the capital side will also help promote the repair market. The possibility of a decline in yields in the future is still high, and the idea of increasing allocation on adjustments is still feasible. [1][58] - From a relative return perspective, given that rating spreads are generally at historical lows, credit sinking is not effective at present. In the short term, high - grade varieties have greater potential for a catch - up rise. In the real estate bond market, as the market stabilizes, risk - preference funds can consider early layout. Urban investment bonds can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. [1][60][58] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From July 21st to July 27th, a total of 371 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 352.639 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 25.49%. The net financing of credit bonds was 57.525 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.623 billion yuan. [12] - By variety, the issuance amount of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and private placement notes all increased month - on - month. The net financing of medium - term notes and short - term financing bills increased, while that of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes decreased. [12] 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by NAFMII declined, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 2 BP. By term, the 1 - year variety had an interest rate change range of -5 BP to 0 BP, the 3 - year variety -3 BP to 1 BP, the 5 - year variety -3 BP to 2 BP, and the 7 - year variety -1 BP to 1 BP. By grade, the interest rate change range of key AAA - grade and AAA - grade varieties was -5 BP to 0 BP, AA + - grade -1 BP to 2 BP, AA - grade 0 BP to 2 BP, and AA - - grade -3 BP to -1 BP. [14] 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From July 21st to July 27th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 897.286 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3.78%. The trading volume of each variety increased. [17] 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. The 1 - year credit spread widened, the 3 - year AA - grade and above varieties' credit spreads widened, the 5 - year AAA - grade and AA + - grade credit spreads widened, and the rest of the 5 - year varieties' spreads narrowed, while the 7 - year credit spread narrowed. [20] - For enterprise bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened. The 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year credit spreads widened, and the 7 - year credit spread narrowed. [27] - For urban investment bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened. The 1 - year and 3 - year credit spreads widened; among the 5 - year varieties, the AAA - grade and AA + - grade credit spreads widened, and the rest narrowed; among the 7 - year varieties, the AA - - grade spread widened, and the rest narrowed. [34] 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread of AA + medium - and short - term notes widened by 1.79 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.83 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 6.64 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year medium - and short - term notes' (AA - )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 3.00 BP, (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 1.00 BP, and (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 1.00 BP. [43] - Similar analyses were also conducted for enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds in terms of term spreads and rating spreads, with different changes in spreads and their positions in historical quantiles. [48][52] 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From July 21st to July 27th, a total of 3 companies' ratings (including outlooks) were adjusted, with 1 downgraded and 2 upgraded. [55] 3.2 Default and Extension Bond Statistics - There were no credit bond defaults during the period from July 21st to July 27th. The corporate bonds of Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. and Aoyuan Group Co., Ltd. were extended, with a total bond balance of 10.892 billion yuan at the time of extension. [57] 4. Investment Views - The issuance guidance rates mostly declined, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased, and the net financing increased. The yield of credit bonds rose, and the credit spreads mostly widened. [1][58] - For real estate bonds, as the market stabilizes, risk - preference funds can consider early layout, focusing on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. [60] - Urban investment bonds can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds, with low short - term credit risk, and the current strategy can be positive. [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 21 - 25, the stock and commodity markets strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Credit bonds showed vulnerability, with reasons including low yields and credit spreads weakening the cushioning effect of coupons on valuation fluctuations, and bond market adjustments and tightened liquidity leading to preventive redemptions of funds by wealth management products, resulting in selling pressure on credit bonds. However, with the central bank's support and seasonal liquidity easing at the beginning of the month, the liquidity may recover, driving the recovery of credit bonds [1][2][11]. - After the adjustment, credit spreads generally remained at low levels. Institutions may prefer credit bond varieties with better liquidity. Among them, short - term urban investment bonds, certain grades of urban investment and industrial bonds with specific maturities had relatively high trading activity during the adjustment period, and their valuation recovery opportunities are worthy of attention. Long - term bonds with maturities over 5 years may face greater valuation fluctuation risks [2][3][17]. - In the bank capital bond market, yields rose across the board from July 21 - 25, and credit spreads widened. After the over - adjustment, there are opportunities. The yields of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have become more attractive, and insurance institutions have increased their allocation. Short - term and lower - rated bank capital bonds such as 3 - year AA and 2 - year AA - bank capital bonds may be relatively advantageous choices [5][6][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Yields Up Across the Board, Sci - tech Innovation Bonds Underperformed - In the primary market, from July 1 - 27, 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was slightly positive. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times increasing. The issuance term changed little, and the issuance rate remained low, with rates for different terms decreasing compared to June [29][31]. - In the secondary market, yields of urban investment bonds rose across the board. The adjustment of previously "over - bought" sci - tech innovation bond components was greater, restricting the growth of the sci - tech innovation bond ETF scale. The trading activity of urban investment bonds decreased, and the buying sentiment declined sharply [11][12][34]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Trading Reduced Maturities, and the Proportion of High - rated Trading Recovered - From July 1 - 27, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing and that of 2 - 3 times increasing. The proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly, and the issuance rate changed little overall [39][41]. - In terms of trading, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds weakened significantly, with the TKN proportion decreasing and the low - valuation proportion dropping. The trading slightly reduced maturities, and the proportion of high - rated trading recovered [42]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Long - term Large - bank Bonds Performed Weaker, and Trading "Increased Volume with Falling Prices" - From July 21 - 25, 2025, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, due to increased market risk appetite and tightened liquidity, the yields of bank capital bonds rose across the board, with long - term large - bank secondary capital bonds performing weaker. Credit spreads also widened across the board, and the trading volume increased while the trading sentiment weakened significantly. The trading was mainly concentrated in medium - and long - term varieties with better liquidity, and the trading of city commercial bank capital bonds shifted towards high - grade bonds [45][48][51]. - Regarding TLAC bonds, the spreads between 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds and TLAC bonds were analyzed, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds were more cost - effective at present. For commercial financial bonds, the credit spread of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds reached the lower limit of the central position [51][55].

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from July 21 to July 25, 2025, a total of 414 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 592.83 billion, representing a week-on-week increase of 47.80% [3] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 202 issues with a scale of 219.28 billion, a week-on-week increase of 24.66%, making up 36.99% of the total issuance [3] - City investment bonds totaled 166 issues with a scale of 109.63 billion, a week-on-week increase of 2.90%, representing 18.49% of the total [3] - Financial bonds had 46 issues with a scale of 263.92 billion, a week-on-week increase of 122.44%, accounting for 44.52% of the total [3] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.35 years, with industrial bonds at 3.38 years, city investment bonds at 3.75 years, and financial bonds at 1.66 years [3] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.08%, with industrial bonds at 2.01%, city investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [3] - A total of 23 credit bonds were canceled during the week [3] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit spreads increased across industries, with the largest increase in AAA-rated industries being in pharmaceuticals, which rose by 7.6 basis points, while electronics saw a decrease of 1.5 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated industries, real estate experienced the largest increase in credit spreads by 8.9 basis points, while building materials decreased by 15.3 basis points [4] - In the AA-rated category, electronics had the largest increase in credit spreads by 7.5 basis points, while building materials decreased by 0.5 basis points [4] - In terms of city investment bonds, the largest increase in AAA-rated credit spreads was in Shaanxi, which rose by 5.3 basis points, while Yunnan saw a decrease of 1.2 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated credit spreads, Fujian had the largest increase of 6.4 basis points, while Qinghai decreased by 1.2 basis points [4] - The largest increase in AA-rated credit spreads was in Hubei, which rose by 6.5 basis points, while Sichuan decreased by 2 basis points [4] Group 3: Trading Volume - The top three credit bonds by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes [5] - Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 573.26 billion, a week-on-week increase of 35.93%, accounting for 37.04% of the total trading volume [5] - Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 368.42 billion, a week-on-week increase of 1.83%, representing 23.81% of the total [5] - Medium-term notes had a trading volume of 327.90 billion, a week-on-week decrease of 4.54%, making up 21.19% of the total [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, most credit spreads in different industries widened, while a small number narrowed. Credit bond yields adjusted significantly, increasing the cost - performance of credit bonds from a static coupon perspective. With the rapid decline of black - series futures prices on Friday night, bond market sentiment may improve, and the space for further credit bond adjustment is relatively limited. It is recommended to continue to focus on long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, strongly recommend long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng, and be bullish on urban investment dim sum bonds and US dollar bonds [3][4][56]. - Since July 2024, the long - end risk - free interest rate has been in a downward channel. The yield of ultra - long - term credit bonds has followed suit, and the current compression of credit spreads is not as extreme as last year. Buying sentiment may not have reached its end, and the market may further evolve towards long - duration assets [5][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 390.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 220.3 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 3.09 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 910 million yuan. In terms of product types, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 3.31 billion yuan, an increase of 280 million yuan; that of industrial bonds was 11.06 billion yuan, an increase of 5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 24.69 billion yuan, an increase of 16.74 billion yuan [16]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rates of AA - rated industrial bonds and AA + - rated financial bonds increased significantly compared to last week, by 51BP and 41BP respectively. The fluctuations of other bond types and ratings did not exceed 10BP [23][24]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume - This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 178 billion yuan compared to last week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 227.2 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 361.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 611.6 billion yuan, an increase of 151.2 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 1.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 220 million yuan [24]. 3.2.2 Yield - This week, the yields of credit bonds with different maturities and ratings increased significantly, ranging from 7 - 17BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1Y increased by 7BP, 8BP, and 8BP respectively compared to last week [31]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, most credit spreads in different industries widened, while a small number narrowed. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA + electronics and building materials narrowed by 17BP and 8BP respectively, and those of AA + light manufacturing and AAA leisure services narrowed slightly [34]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened overall, with the short - end widening more than the long - end. Regionally, most urban investment credit spreads widened, while a small number compressed slightly [40][41]. - **Industrial Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of AA + and above industrial bonds widened to varying degrees, and the short - end of AA industrial bonds also widened [45]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened overall, with the widening range of different maturities and ratings between 3 - 9BP [50]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - This week, Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. extended the maturity of 5 debt issues; Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. had the implied ratings of 12 debt issues downgraded; Inner Mongolia Oujing Technology Co., Ltd. was put on the watchlist, and its "Oujing Convertible Bond" was also included; Midea Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. had the implied ratings of 20 debt issues downgraded; and Aoyuan Group Co., Ltd. extended the maturity of 3 debt issues [2][51]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds. For industrial bonds, China State Grid has the largest scale of ultra - long - term credit bonds, but the yield is relatively low. China Chengtong Holdings Group, Sinochem Group, Guangzhou Yuexiu Group, and Sichuan Energy Investment Group are more cost - effective. For urban investment bonds, although the static coupon rate is generally better, the selectable scope is relatively narrow. Pay attention to the spread compression opportunities of Shenzhen Metro, Shaanxi Communications Holdings, Yantai Guofeng, and Yizhuang Investment and Development. The cost - performance of bank Tier 2 capital bonds is limited [6][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads. Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term, and only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrowing [2][5]. - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by about 4BP [2][11]. - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP [2][17]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual (two - type) bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads - Domestic commodity prices rise sharply due to the expected "anti - involution" policy, and the A - share market hits a new high this year. The adjustment of interest - rate bonds intensifies, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds rising by 4BP, 8BP, and 10BP respectively, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds rising by 9BP [5]. - Some institutional liabilities are affected, leading to large - scale selling of credit bonds and a significant rise in yields. The yields of 1Y credit bonds of all grades rise by 10 - 11BP; the yields of 3Y AA and above - grade credit bonds rise by 10 - 11BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 7BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 11BP, and those of other grades rise by 6 - 8BP; the yields of 7Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 5 - 6BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 3BP; the yields of 10Y AA + and above - grade bonds rise by 10 - 12BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 8BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term. Only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrow. Rating spreads and term spreads show obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Spreads of all grades of urban investment bonds rise by about 4BP - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by 4BP. For AAA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Hainan rising by 5BP, and Tianjin and Liaoning rising by 2BP; for AA + - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Jilin rising by 5BP, Yunnan and Tianjin rising by 2BP, and Qinghai remaining flat; for AA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 2 - 5BP, with Gansu and Henan rising by 6BP, Hebei rising by 1BP, and Guizhou falling by 1BP [2][11]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP. The spreads of Longfor rise by 3BP, those of Midea Real Estate rise by 4BP, those of CIFI rise by 160BP, those of Gemdale rise by 1BP, and those of Vanke fall by 4BP. Spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades rise by 4BP respectively; spreads of chemical bonds of all grades rise by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry rise by 6BP, those of HBIS Group rise by 5BP, and those of Jinkong Coal Industry rise by 4BP [2][17]. 4. Spreads of 3 - to 5 - year two - type bonds rise significantly - This week, the yields of two - type bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Specifically, the yields of 1Y secondary capital bonds of all grades rise by 7 - 8BP, and spreads rise by 2 - 3BP; the yields of 1Y perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 9BP, and spreads rise by 5BP. The yields of 3Y two - type bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 4 - 6BP. The yield of 5Y AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rises by 14BP, the yields of other grades rise by 17BP, and spreads rise by 7BP; the yields of perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 3 - 5BP [2][27][29]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly - This week, the excess spreads of AAA - grade industrial perpetual bonds remain flat. The spreads of 3Y industrial bonds remain at 3.82BP, at the 1.69% quantile since 2015, and the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds remain at 7.65BP, at the 4.55% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.12BP to 3.63BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.41BP to 9.80BP, at the 9.10% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank two - type spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - Industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads = individual bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - yield to maturity of same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by arithmetic mean method [38]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term bank ordinary bonds; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term medium - term notes [38]. - Both industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and guarantee bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [38].

2025 年 7 月 26 日 总量研究 信用债发行环比增加，各行业信用利差整体上行 ——信用债周度观察（20250721-20250725） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 7 月 21 日至 7 月 25 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 414 只， 发行规模总计 5928.29 亿元，环比增加 47.80%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 202 只，发行规模达 2192.81 亿元，环比 增加 24.66%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 36.99%；城投债共发行 166 只， 发行规模达 1096.27 亿元，环比增加 2.90%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 18.49%；金融债共发行 46 只，发行规模达 2639.21 亿元，环比增加 122.44%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 44.52%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 3.35 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 3.38 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.75 年、金融债平均发行期限为 1.66 年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant growth in the scale of joint venture wealth management products in 2025, with a notable increase in management sizes for specific companies, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][6]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The scale of joint venture wealth management has seen a remarkable increase, with five companies reaching a total of 191.7 billion yuan by July 23, 2025, representing an increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year [2][6]. - Among these, the management scale of BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture reached 61.1 billion yuan and 42.8 billion yuan respectively, both showing substantial growth this year [2][6]. - BNP Paribas focuses on stable returns with a strategy centered on fixed income, while BlackRock adopts a multi-strategy approach, enhancing product returns and risk control [6]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - Minsheng Wealth Management has upgraded the redemption speed for its cash management products, allowing for faster access to funds, which enhances investment efficiency and reduces idle cash periods [7]. Yield Performance - For the week of July 14-20, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.37%, down 3 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds yielded 1.22%, down 1 basis point [8]. - The yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowed by 3 basis points [8]. - In pure fixed income products, yields for those with maturities under six months generally increased, while those over six months saw a decline [9]. Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spread has been narrowing since May, currently at historical low levels since September 2024, indicating limited value [11][15]. - The net asset value of bank wealth management products has a low break-even rate of 0.84%, down 0.02 percentage points, suggesting stability in the market [15]. Market Outlook - The article suggests that the ongoing regulatory adjustments and low interest rate environment may continue to pressure the yields of wealth management products in the medium to long term [12]. - Companies are expected to focus on low-volatility, high-liquidity assets to manage fluctuations effectively, which may limit potential returns [12].

Fixed Income Research - The core viewpoint indicates that from July 14 to July 20, the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds showed divergence, with high-grade rates rising and mid-to-low grades declining, with overall changes ranging from -5 BP to 3 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased on a month-on-month basis, with a reduction in corporate bonds and directional tools, while enterprise bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds saw an increase [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with enterprise bonds and directional tools showing an increase, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds experienced a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds continued to decline, with all varieties seeing a decrease in transaction amounts [2] - The overall yield of credit bonds decreased, and the credit spreads for medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed [2] - The report suggests that despite the potential for fluctuations, the long-term yield is expected to continue on a downward trend, and investors should consider increasing allocations during adjustments while focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - The report highlights that the central urban work conference indicates a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, which will serve as a new policy foundation [3] - In the real estate sector, ongoing optimization of policies is expected to support the market's stabilization, with a focus on high-quality central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [3] - The report notes that the recent launch of a large hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, will significantly increase the demand for special steel, particularly in high-altitude and corrosive environments [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price support from domestic policies, while the lithium market faces supply surplus pressure, limiting price increases [5] - The report anticipates that the rare earth market will benefit from improved export demand, with June exports showing a significant increase of 32.02% month-on-month [5][6] - The overall strategy maintains a neutral rating for the steel industry and a positive rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongjin Gold [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: How Has the Bond Market Broken Through Sideways Trading Historically? - Interest Rate Weekly (Week 3 of July)" [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market has been in a long - lasting sideways trading with low interest rates and extremely low volatility. From April to July this year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield oscillated between 1.60% - 1.70%, with a range of only 10bp, and the volatility on July 8 reached the lowest in the past 5 years [2]. - Historically, out of 12 rounds of bond market sideways trading from 2019 to now, 7 times the subsequent interest rates broke through downward and 5 times upward, with the sideways trading usually lasting about 1 month. A transition to a bull market typically requires a combination of increased economic downward pressure, monetary policy easing, and asset shortage, while a transition to a bear market needs factors like better - than - expected economic recovery, tightened monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, and regulatory impacts [3]. - The current trading theme in the bond market is unclear. On one hand, the strong GDP performance in the first half of the year makes investors expect no significant incremental policies in the short term, and recent consumption policies have made the bond market underperform. On the other hand, the current capital situation is in a balanced state, and the government bond supply pressure from July to August is not large and can be hedged by the central bank [4][7]. - A method to judge the end of a sideways market turning bearish is to observe the significant cooling of investors' aggressiveness in non - interest - rate bond strategies. When investors' expectation of further interest rate decline weakens, their buying of non - interest - rate bonds decreases, especially in the case of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [7]. - Historically, the bond market breaking through sideways trading usually requires unexpected macro and policy factors. Currently, considering the long - term sideways trading, low interest rates, and small fluctuations in the bond market, and the enhanced learning effect in the market this year, investors can focus on the aggressiveness of non - interest - rate bond strategies to measure the bond market's risk - preference expectations [10]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalog Historical Bond Market Sideways Trading and Breakthrough - The report sorted out 12 rounds of bond market sideways trading from 2019 to now, analyzing the sideways trading periods, 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuation ranges, reasons for sideways trading, post - breakthrough performances, and triggering factors [3][4]. Current Bond Market Situation - The trading theme is unclear, with factors from economic performance, policies, capital situation, and supply side affecting the market [4][7]. Micro - perspective Analysis - By observing the trading behavior of non - interest - rate bonds, especially the buying intensity of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds by brokers and funds, a method to judge the end of a sideways market turning bearish is provided [7].