上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 日经指数在温和涨跌之间摇摆后小幅上涨0.3%，至56，985.34点，投资者正在评估关税方面的进展。媒 体援引知情人士的话报道称，特朗普政府正在考虑对六个行业征收新的国家安全关税。两名花旗投资研 究分析师在一份研究报告中称，如果美国的政治不稳定或地缘政治风险加剧引发资本从美国流向其他国 家，日本股市可能会从资金流动的角度受益。表现最好的股票中，Nitto Boseki上涨15%，住友电气工业 上涨11%，Furukawa Electric上涨10%。美元兑日元报154.75日元，纽约周一晚间为154.66日元。日本市 场周一因假日休市。 责任编辑：王永生 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 责任编辑：王永生 日经指数在温和涨跌之间摇摆后小幅上涨0.3%，至56，985.34点，投资者正在评估关税方面的进展。媒 体援引知情人士的话报道称，特朗普政府正在考虑对六个行业征收新的国家安全关税。两名花旗投资研 究分析师在一份研究报告中称，如果美国的政治不稳定或地缘政治风险加剧引发资本从美国流向其他国 家，日本股市 ...

美国最高法院给特朗普来了一记响亮的耳光——6比3，关税违法。全世界都在看日本的反应。 5500亿美元的投资协议，前提条件都没了，这不就是撕毁的最佳时机？日本《每日新闻》的答案让所有 人意外：不敢。 这等于什么？等于特朗普花大力气安排进最高法院的"自己人"，在关键时刻站到了对立面。 这项裁决的杀伤力极大。从2025年4月开始，特朗普以贸易逆差为由对全球加征的"对等关税"、对中国 和加拿大征收的"芬太尼关税"，全部被判定缺乏法律授权。 据耶鲁大学预算实验室估算，裁决生效后美国平均有效关税税率将从16.9%直降至9.1%。更麻烦的是， 已经收上来的关税可能要退。沃顿商学院测算，潜在退税额高达1750亿美元。特朗普自己也承认，退税 问题"可能要再打五年官司"。 裁决一出，全球市场屏息等待。欧盟说"正在审慎分析"，孟加拉国直接表态"协议将失去法律基础"。全 世界都在观望：那些在关税压力下跟美国签了协议的国家，会不会趁机翻盘？ 关税违法了，特朗普当天就掏出了"Plan B" 2026年2月20日，美国最高法院9名大法官投票，6票对3票，裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力 法》实施的大规模关税措施违法。 撰写多数意见的， ...

Market Overview - Concerns over AI and renewed risks from trade wars led to a decline of at least 1% in all three major US stock indices, with financial and software stocks dragging down the market [2] - IBM's stock plummeted 13%, marking its largest single-day drop in 25 years, due to threats posed by Anthropic's products to programming languages [2][9] - The financial sector fell over 3%, with American Express down more than 7% and KKR dropping nearly 9% [2] - Retail stocks sensitive to tariffs also fell, with Wayfair down nearly 10% [2] - European and UK stock indices dropped from record highs, with Novo Nordisk's stock falling over 16% after trial results showed its weight loss drug was less effective than Eli Lilly's [2] US Treasury and Currency Markets - US Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield approaching a three-month low [3] - Following the Supreme Court's overturning of Trump's tariffs, the US dollar fell from a four-week high over two days [3] - The offshore RMB rose above 6.89, nearing a three-year high [3] AI and Technology Developments - Anthropic announced its Claude Code tool could modernize Cobol systems, causing IBM's stock to drop significantly [9] - Nvidia launched a new laptop chip aimed at re-entering the consumer PC market, focusing on lightweight designs with long battery life [22] - ASML revealed breakthroughs in EUV light source technology, potentially increasing chip production by 50% by 2030 [22] Trade and Tariff Developments - The US Customs announced it would stop collecting tariffs deemed illegal by the Supreme Court starting February 24 [19] - The Democratic Party aims to block any attempts to extend tariffs and is pushing for a refund scheme for previously paid tariffs [19] - The European Parliament has paused the approval of the US-EU trade agreement, with the UK potentially facing the largest impact from new tariffs [20] Private Equity and Market Conditions - Bain & Company reported that the private equity industry is facing a prolonged downturn, with a backlog of $3.8 trillion in assets [24] - The report indicated that profit return rates have dropped to a 16-year low, and investor expectations have risen to a 20% return threshold [24] AI and Economic Predictions - A hypothetical report from Citrini Research suggested that while AI productivity may exceed expectations, it could lead to significant job losses and economic contraction by 2028 [21] - The report triggered a sell-off in various sectors, including food delivery and payment software, as investors reacted to potential risks associated with AI [21] Robotics and AI Applications - The performance of humanoid robots during the Spring Festival Gala highlighted significant advancements in hardware, with expectations for a surge in shipments from 20,000 to 76,000 units by 2026-2027 [29] - The introduction of AI capabilities in robotics is anticipated to drive further applications and market growth [29]

Group 1 - European stock markets declined, with the Stoxx 600 index closing down 0.5%, driven by losses in financial services, media, and tourism sectors, while personal care and utilities outperformed the market [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted after its new weight-loss injection drug underperformed compared to a competing product from Eli Lilly in a recent trial [1] - The European Parliament's major political groups announced a suspension of legislative work to approve the US-EU trade agreement following the US Supreme Court's overturning of Trump's global tariff measures, leading to new global tariffs announced by Trump [1] Group 2 - KBC Securities' global equity head noted that the current options seem limited and less impactful, which could be beneficial for consumer stocks, but concerns remain about market participants' willingness to endure upcoming volatility from tariff news [3] - Investors are already grappling with worries over high valuations and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, with tariff-related news adding complexity to the market landscape [3] - Significant upcoming events include Trump's State of the Union address and Nvidia's earnings report, with potential for increased volatility in software stocks following the release of Anthropic's new model [3]

他补充说，"最高法院的裁决也再次确认了这一点"。 美国总统特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，"作为总统，我不需要向国会申请批准关税""关税很久以前就 以多种形式存在了"。 责任编辑：李桐 他补充说，"最高法院的裁决也再次确认了这一点"。 责任编辑：李桐 美国总统特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称，"作为总统，我不需要向国会申请批准关税""关税很久以前就 以多种形式存在了"。 ...

2026年2月，美联储的降息预期遭遇了一场意料之外的"倒春寒"。当市场还在回味1月会议纪要中"多数 官员支持维持利率"的鹰派信号时，一系列经济数据、官员表态与政治博弈的交织，让原本渐趋明朗的 宽松路径再度陷入迷雾。从核心PCE通胀的黏性显现，到美联储理念分歧，美联储的利率决策正站在一 个前所未有的复杂十字路口。 中泰证券（600918）的分析报告认为，对等关税被推翻，并非去通胀，美国再通胀的风险依然较高：一 是，逐案审理的预期下，需要考虑企业打官司的动力，如果企业已经将关税成本成功转嫁给消费者，企 业可能没有太大动力要求退税，这也意味着对应的商品价格可能不会调降；二是，出口商主动承担了部 分关税，体现为美元贬值，而美国进口价格基本没有变化，从而最小化关税对商品价格的影响，关税调 降反而给出口商提供了抬价的空间；三是，考虑到特朗普和贝森特均放言称替代性关税将基本保留原有 税率和税收水平，同时退税充满诸多不确定性，企业向下游转嫁关税的计划可能不会受太大影响。 除了通胀和关税这两个重要经济指标，预期的分歧也是影响美联储降息决策的因素。 作为特朗普亲信及此前美联储内部最偏鸽派的官员之一，美联储理事斯蒂芬.米兰近日收回 ...

德国银行协会主席：新宣布的关税对大西洋两岸的经济体来说都是一种负担。 ...

美国纸业和包装公司股价盘前大跌，受价格疲软以及美国最高法院驳回美国总统特朗普大部分关税的裁 决影响。Packaging Corp. of America下跌5.6%，而国际纸业公司下跌4.8%。Smurfit WestRock盘前下跌 5.9%。与此同时，欧洲同行Mondi下跌3.5%。Jefferies的分析师写道，纸张和纸板价格因需求疲软而承 压。 来源：滚动播报 ...

核心要点 市场概况 亚太市场周一在关祱不确定性中走势分化。美国总统特朗普周末宣布，将全球关祱从 10% 上调至 15%。 此前，美国最高法院裁定，推翻了特朗普依据 1977 年《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）推行的大部 分贸易议程。 不过，雷斯塔德能源（Rystad Energy）首席经济学家克劳迪奥・加林贝蒂表示，美国的贸易伙伴并未因 此摆脱困境。 他在声明中写道："尽管最高法院的裁决使现有大部分关祱失效，并削弱了针对特定国家的关祱能力， 但并未瓦解整体关祱框架。" 加林贝蒂补充道，如果在未获得 IEEPA 豁免的情况下触及关祱上限，平均税率可能会比最高法院刚刚 推翻的关祱结构下更高。 主要市场表现 亚太市场周一走势分化。 特朗普周末宣布将全球关祱从 10% 上调至 15%。 美国最高法院裁定推翻了总统依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）推行的大部分贸易议程。 中国、日本市场因假期休市。 NSEI（印度 NIFTY 50）：+138.70 点（+0.54%） KS11（韩国 KOSPI）：+37.56 点（+0.65%） DJI（道琼斯工业平均指数）：+230.81 点（+0.47%） IXIC（纳 ...

Trade Relations and Tariffs - The US trade representative confirmed that existing trade agreements with the EU will remain in place despite the Supreme Court ruling, emphasizing that tariffs will continue regardless of the litigation outcome [1][2] - The European Commission has urged the US for clarity on future tariff policies, stating that the EU expects the US to honor its commitments and will not accept any increases in tariffs beyond previously agreed levels [3] - European Parliament lawmakers are considering pausing legislative work until clear commitments from the US are secured, highlighting the need for clarity in trade relationships [4] Industry Reactions - The German industry has expressed a mixed reaction, acknowledging the political checks and balances in the US while also noting that uncertainty could hinder investment and supply chain decisions [6][7] - The automotive and chemical industries in Germany are facing unchanged sectoral tariffs of 15%, which are not affected by the recent court ruling [8] - The French trade minister has suggested that the EU should adopt a united approach against the US's new tariffs, indicating a potential for retaliatory measures [10] Market Impact - Following the Supreme Court ruling, the French stock market index, CAC 40, reached a record high, driven by gains in luxury stocks, which are significantly exposed to exports [11][12] - Key export sectors for France, such as aerospace, currently remain unaffected by tariff changes, maintaining a 0% tariff exemption [12] - The French government is focused on adapting to the ruling's consequences while emphasizing the importance of maintaining fair trade rules and reciprocity [13][14]