Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increasing tariffs on U.S. companies, highlighting the complexities of cost absorption and pricing strategies in response to tariff pressures. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation and Cost Distribution - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 10.6%, with theoretical rates potentially reaching 16-17% [2][4] - Concerns about inflation have not materialized as expected, with CPI increases remaining below projections for the past four months [2][4] - The distribution of tariff costs among exporters, U.S. companies, and consumers will significantly influence the overall economic pressure [6] Group 2: Company Behavior Under Tariff Pressures - The article analyzes U.S. companies' responses to tariffs through earnings calls, focusing on industries with high overseas dependency and various supply chain stages [7][10] - Companies are categorized based on their reliance on imports and their position in the supply chain, affecting how they experience tariff impacts [7][10] Group 3: Pricing Strategies and Cost Absorption - Companies are generally cautious in passing on tariff costs to consumers, with many opting to absorb costs initially [12][13] - Essential goods see slower and smaller price increases due to lower price elasticity, while discretionary items experience more aggressive pricing adjustments [14][15] - Companies like Walmart and Kroger are particularly careful about passing on costs for essential items, while others in discretionary sectors are more proactive [14][15] Group 4: Supply Chain Adjustments - Companies are negotiating with suppliers and adjusting supply chains to mitigate tariff impacts, with many reducing reliance on Chinese imports [16] - Retailers like Home Depot and Best Buy have significantly decreased their sourcing from China, while increasing imports from countries like Vietnam and Taiwan [16] - Some manufacturers are investing in U.S. production to counteract long-term trade risks [16] Group 5: Financial Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs have led to an average profit margin decline of 1.2% across sampled companies, with manufacturers bearing a larger share of the cost [18][19] - The impact varies by sector, with manufacturers experiencing more significant cost absorption compared to retailers [19][20] - Retailers have more flexibility in adjusting product offerings to mitigate tariff impacts, while manufacturers face higher costs due to direct exposure to imported materials [20] Group 6: Demand Trends and Consumer Behavior - There is a noted shift towards value-oriented consumption as consumers react to rising prices due to tariffs [21] - Durable goods saw a temporary spike in demand as consumers rushed to purchase before anticipated price increases, leading to potential future demand declines [21][22]

据央视新闻报道，当地时间周二(8月19日)， 美国商务部宣布，将407个产品类别纳入钢铁和铝关税清单，适用税率为50%。 据美国商务部周二确认，新关税已于本周一生效，大幅扩张了此前特朗普针对关键大宗商品宣布的征税范围。 不 过 ， 商 务 部 发 布 的 清 单 仅 以 具 体 的 海 关 编 码 标 注 新 增 产 品 ， 而 非 产 品 名 称 。 例 如 ， 灭 火 器 这 一 类 产 品 在 清 单 中 仅 被 标 注 为"8424.10.0000"，是数百个10位编码中的一项。这种呈现方式让公众难以全面了解究竟哪些产品受到了本轮关税扩展的影响。 专家警告称，此次加征关税影响将十分巨大。 密歇根州立大学供应链管理教授杰森·米勒表示，按2024年进口货值计算，受关税波及的进 口商品已至少达3200亿美元。"7月生产者价格指数(PPI)已经抬头，新关税将进一步推高成本型通胀。" 这一突如其来的决定令许多美国进口商陷入两难境地：许多货物已付讫货款并正在运输途中。若选择接收，则需补缴高额关税；若指示船运 公司在美港口不卸货以避免关税，则很可能面临巨额损失。 今年6月份，特朗普宣布将大多数国家的钢铝进口关税翻倍 ...

"人们的生活越来越拮据，所以越来越多的人开始寻求更好的交易。"戈尔德说，"他们没钱，但仍 然希望自己的孩子拥有一台笔记本电脑。" 底特律典当行American Jewelry and Loan 的老板莱斯·戈尔德（Les Gold）表示："鉴于目前的经济形 势，人们意识到，可以在美国任何地方找到典当行，而且可以节省大量资金。" 典当行可以一站式解决各种开学用品：运动鞋、笔记本电脑、乐器，甚至大学宿舍用的迷你冰箱。 所有东西都集中出售，而且价格远低于大型商超。 关税推高了一些关键的返校用品价格。美国大部分服装和鞋类进口自中国、越南和柬埔寨——这些 国家都面临高达30%的关税。根据7月份消费者价格指数，7月份鞋类价格环比上涨1.4%，服装价格上涨 0.1%。 但据在全美拥有500家典当行的连锁店EZPawn的数据，典当行的价格可能比大型商超便宜高达 50%。该公司表示，上季度商品销售额增长了4%，鞋靴、电子产品和笔记本电脑等返校商品类别的增 长尤为突出。 由于担心关税导致物价上涨，美国人比往年提前返校购物。预算紧张的家庭开始在一个不太传统的 地方寻找便宜货：典当行。 据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）援引美国零售联合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation and consumer prices in the U.S., highlighting that the expected transmission of tariff costs to consumer prices has not been as severe as anticipated, with companies absorbing costs to maintain profit margins [2][4][6]. Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight increase, but remains below expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly rose [2]. - Some industries severely affected by tariffs have seen price surges, yet July data indicates a relief in price pressures for certain goods, while service sectors are experiencing increased price pressures [2]. - JPMorgan's report suggests that companies are absorbing tariff costs at the expense of profit margins, with current profit margins at historical highs allowing for cost absorption without damaging capital or operational budgets [2][4]. Group 2: Tariff Rates and Consumer Impact - Barclays reports that the actual weighted average tariff rate in May was only 9%, lower than the previously estimated 12%, indicating that the impact of tariffs may be less than expected [2][4]. - The article notes that over half of U.S. imported goods benefited from tax exemptions, which has shifted demand away from high-tariff countries [3]. - Citi Research has not found significant evidence of widespread price pressure from tariffs, attributing recent service price increases to one-time factors [5]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Implications - Despite potential future tariff increases, Citi's chief economist predicts that consumers will not face significant price hikes due to weakening demand, which limits companies' ability to pass on costs [6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that consumers will bear a larger share of tariff costs, with the proportion expected to rise from 22% to 67% if current trade policies continue [6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the extent of tariff impacts on inflation for the Federal Reserve, as persistent inflation above the 2% target complicates monetary policy decisions [7].

Amer Sports (AS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call August 19, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker0Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Amur Sports Second Quarter Fiscal twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Omar Saad, SVP, Capital Markets and Investor Relations. You may begin.Speaker1Welcome, everyone. Thanks for joining AmrSports earn ...

Core Insights - Home Depot reported Q2 financial results with non-GAAP EPS of $4.68, slightly below expectations by $0.01, while revenue reached $45.28 billion, reflecting a 4.8% year-over-year growth, meeting forecasts [1] - Key sales metrics showed underperformance, indicating a reduction in consumer spending on big-ticket items amid high interest rates and inflation uncertainty, with same-store sales growth at 1%, below the expected 1.4% [1][2] - The company noted a decline in same-store customer transactions by 0.4% year-over-year, while the average transaction amount increased by 1.4% [1] Financial Performance - Home Depot's total customer transactions decreased by 0.9% to 446.8 million, with the average transaction amount rising by 1.2% to $90.01 [1] - The company expects total sales to grow by 2.8% for the fiscal year, with same-store sales projected to increase by approximately 1% after excluding one-time factors [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly engaging in smaller projects, with 12 out of 16 sales departments reporting year-over-year sales growth [2] - The trend of postponing large projects persists due to high interest rates and economic instability, although customers are not canceling these projects [2][3] Pricing Strategy - Home Depot has maintained its pricing levels as most imported goods arrived before new tariffs were implemented, although price increases are anticipated later in the year [2][3] - The company is studying customer sensitivity to price increases and expanding procurement channels [3] Market Positioning - Home Depot is focusing on professional contractors, with a significant portion of sales coming from this segment, which typically spends more than DIY customers [4][6] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion and plans to acquire GMS for approximately $4.3 billion, enhancing its professional product distribution [6] Competitive Landscape - Home Depot's competitors, such as Floor & Decor, have noted minimal impact from recent price adjustments but anticipate further measures later in the year [3] - The company has not altered its pricing strategy despite changes in U.S. tariff policies, with a customer base that generally has better financial stability than the average consumer [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy direction. The market should focus on three key signals: labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and emphasis on policy flexibility [2][36] - Powell's speech at the meeting is likely to maintain a "neutral to hawkish" stance, emphasizing "inflation resilience" and "policy flexibility" to guide the market to reduce bets on "consecutive rate cuts" [3] - The Fed's core goal of "balancing inflation and growth" remains unchanged. The game between the lagged impact of tariffs and economic downside risks will be the main line of future monetary policy [3] Summary by Directory Introduction: Policy Weathervane Significance of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is a key platform for the Fed to release major policy signals. The policy statements at this meeting often set the tone for subsequent monetary policies [4][7] Current Economic Background and Complexity of the Fed's Policy Environment Macro - economic and Policy Pressure Intertwined - The US economy shows multiple contradictory features. Inflation pressure is structurally differentiated, with core CPI showing more resilience. The labor market is cooling but still has some strength, and external policy pressure has increased significantly [8][11][13] - As of August 19, the market's probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September has reached 90%, and some institutions have even raised the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut [13] Fed's Internal Disagreement - The dovish camp is concerned about economic downside risks and employment market slowdown, advocating for near - term rate cuts. The hawkish camp emphasizes labor market resilience and inflation rebound risks, advocating maintaining high interest rates [14] Key Economic Data Analysis July US CPI Data - July CPI showed "overall stability and strong core." Energy prices declined, food prices were stable, while core services inflation was strong. Different commodity items were affected differently by tariffs and demand [15] July US PPI Data - July PPI showed an unexpected increase, mainly driven by services. The increase in PPI may not fully reflect fundamental inflation pressure, but it indicates potential upward risks for future CPI [22][23] Root Causes of the July CPI and PPI Divergence - The divergence between CPI and PPI reflects the complexity of inflation transmission, including a 1 - 3 - month time lag in cost transfer and possible statistical differences [25] Possible Scenarios of Powell's Speech and Policy Signal Analysis - Scenario 1: Absence from the meeting. This is a "passive neutral" strategy to avoid market volatility and leave policy decisions to economic data before the September meeting [27] - Scenario 2: Deliver a "non - substantial" speech. This is to maintain policy options' openness and postpone the final decision to the September meeting [28] - Scenario 3: Moderately release rate - cut signals. This requires further deterioration of employment data and significant escalation of external pressure from the Trump administration [28] Market Expectations and Future Monetary Policy Outlook Short - term Market Expectations and Risks - Market expectations of the number of rate cuts this year are around 3 times, but this is at risk of adjustment. US economic downside risks are accumulating, making short - term policy expectations more complex [34] Medium - to - Long - term Monetary Policy Path - The lagged impact of tariffs will be a key constraint on the Fed's policy in the next 1 - 2 years. In Q4 2025, inflation pressure may intensify, and in 2026, inflation is likely to fall, opening up room for significant rate cuts [34] Conclusion: Core Observation Points of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy. The market should focus on labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and policy flexibility [36]

2025 年 08 月 19 日 美国 7 月 PPI 环比增长 0.9%，创三年来最高环比增速，华尔街预期仅增长 0.2%。数据暗示，企业正在 转嫁与关税相关的进口成本的攀升。（华尔街见闻） 铅：LME 库存减少，价格存支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16775 | -0.45% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1981 | -0.45% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 30595 | -2006 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3833 | -1426 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 49496 | -1711 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 159114 | -522 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -25 | 0 | LME CASH-3M ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 19, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Focus: Precious metals and base metals futures market analysis Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: PPI exceeded expectations, dampening interest - rate cut expectations [2] - Silver: Prices declined slightly [2] - Copper: Lacked driving forces, with prices oscillating [2] - Zinc: Prices were under pressure and declined [2] - Lead: LME inventory decreased, providing price support [2] - Tin: Prices oscillated within a range [2] - Aluminum: Price fluctuations converged [2] - Alumina: Price center shifted downward [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Prices followed those of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Narrow - range oscillation based on fundamentals, with caution for news - related risks [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro expectations and reality [2] Summary by Metal Gold - **Price Movement**: All major gold contracts and spot prices declined, with沪金2510 down 0.37% to 775.80, and Comex黄金2510 down 0.02% to 3381.70 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8] Silver - **Price Movement**: All major silver contracts and spot prices decreased, with沪银2510 down 0.88% to 9204, and Comex白银2510 down 0.04% to 38.020 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [8] Copper - **Price Movement**:沪铜主力合约closed at 78,910, down 0.19%, and伦铜3M电子盘closed at 9,752, down 0.08% [10] - **Market News**: US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the highest in three years. Chile's copper exports to China recovered in July after a decline in June [10][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Zinc - **Price Movement**:沪锌主力收盘价was 22360, down 0.64%, and伦锌3M电子盘收was 2796.5, down 1.62% [13] - **Market News**: At the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, Powell's speech was closely watched, with different banks having various expectations [14] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, showing a bearish outlook [14] Lead - **Price Movement**:沪铅主力收盘价was 16775, down 0.45%, and伦铅3M电子盘收was 1981, down 0.45% [16] - **Market News**: US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Tin - **Price Movement**:沪锡主力合约closed at 267,020, up 0.07%, and伦锡3M电子盘closed at 33,670, up 0.18% [19] - **Market News**: Multiple macro - level events such as statements from Chinese and US leaders [20] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations converged.沪铝主力合约收盘价was 20600, and LME铝3M收盘价was 2589 [22] - **Alumina**: Price center shifted downward.沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价was 3171 [22] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Prices followed electrolytic aluminum.铝合金主力合约收盘价was 20090 [22] - **Market News**: US - India trade agreement was uncertain, and US "sticky inflation" was accelerating [24] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 0; Alumina: - 1; Aluminum alloy: 0 [24] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: Prices oscillated in a narrow range based on fundamentals.沪镍主力收盘价was 120,340 [25] - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro expectations and reality.不锈钢主力收盘价was 13,010 [25] - **Market News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, such as production suspensions and regulatory changes [25][26][27] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: 0; Stainless steel: 0 [30]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 7月，美国经济好于预期，叠加超预期的二季报，上半年全球资金"再平衡"趋势一度逆转，再度向美国回 流。"再平衡"反转的持续性、后续国内外关注的焦点？本文分析，供参考。 发达市场悉数上涨，玻璃价格大幅反弹。 当周，标普500上涨0.9%，日经225上涨3.7%；10Y美债收益率 上行6.0bp至4.3%；美元指数下跌0.4%至97.85，离岸人民币升值至7.1891；WTI原油下跌1.7%至62.8美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金下跌2.0%至3336.2美元/盎司。 美俄谈判未达成协议，特朗普称暂不征收俄油二级关税。 8月15日，美俄两国元首在阿拉斯加举行会 谈，双方未就俄乌冲突未达成停火协议，泽连斯基或将于8月18日当周在华盛顿会见特朗普。特朗普8月 15日称短期内不会因购买俄油而对中国等国家实施二级关税。 美国7月核心商品CPI弱于预期，关注下周杰克逊霍尔年会。 美国7月核心CPI环比0.3%，符合市场预期， 但与关税相关的商品部分表现较弱，推升联储9月降息概率；7月美国PPI表现强于预期，环比0.9%；7月 美国零售销售略弱于预期，环比0.5 ...