1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Grains and Oilseeds - The domestic soybean inventory pressure is acceptable, and the soybean meal inventory remains low. Although the开机 rate has improved, there is no inventory pressure for soybean meal for now. The basis has improved slightly this week. The follow - up supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, but the support from US soybeans is strengthening. The Brazilian premium is also expected to be strong before the US soybean import is expected to open. The futures price may follow the US soybean to correct in the short term, but the space is limited. It is recommended to place low - level rolling long orders [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of live pigs maintains an oscillating structure. The slaughter weight of live pigs is slowly declining, and the reluctance to sell among farmers has increased recently, which has boosted the enthusiasm for second - fattening and supported the price this week. The demand side shows no obvious signs of improvement, and the market price is expected to remain mainly oscillating. There is still breeding profit currently, but the market is cautious about expanding production capacity. The market has no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is also not strong [3][4]. Corn - The current corn supply varies with the rhythm of traders. Northeast traders have tight inventories and are reluctant to sell, keeping the price firm. North China traders take profits after the corn price rises to a high level, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants has recovered on the weekend, with the price remaining stable with partial declines. The profit of downstream deep - processing has recovered, and the operating rate has increased slightly, while the inventory remains stable. The breeding end purchases as needed for rigid demand replenishment. However, the narrowing price difference between wheat and corn and even parity has increased the substitution for feed use, limiting the increase in corn prices. In the long term, the tight supply of corn, low import volume, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward movement of corn prices. In the short term, the tight supply supports the corn price, but the concentrated listing of wheat restricts the upward rhythm. The expansion of the minimum - price policy procurement range supports the price, and the overall corn market remains in an oscillating and slightly strong state with limited amplitude. Attention should be paid to the subsequent wheat market and policy situation [6]. Sugar - The sugar production data in Brazil in late May increased year - on - year, and the weather in India and Thailand is favorable for sugarcane growth. The global supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain an oscillating and weak pattern. Currently, the negative factors in the market have been fully reflected in the price trend. If there are no new negative factors to drive the market, the possibility of a sharp decline in sugar prices is small. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern this week, with a reference range of 5650 - 5800 [10]. Oils and Fats - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures oscillate around 4100 ringgit. Due to concerns about the slowdown in export growth in the first 20 days, the futures price has slightly declined after rising. It will repeatedly test the support at 4100 ringgit in the short term. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level stagnant and declining trend. In the short term, it is expected to pull back and seek support at 8500 yuan. Affected by the oscillation of Malaysian palm oil, it may break through 8500 yuan and further decline to the range of 8300 - 8350 yuan. For soybean oil, crude oil has entered an oscillating adjustment state after a sharp rise on the 13th, and the supply in the Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted, so the upside space of crude oil is limited at present, which affects the trend of vegetable oils as biodiesel raw materials. In the short term, the CBOT soybean oil main contract in July oscillates below 55 cents. In the domestic market, this is the season with the lightest demand. As schools are on holiday, the demand for oils and fats from canteens and small restaurants around schools has significantly decreased. The high factory operating rate and high soybean oil production have led to inventory accumulation. If the futures price enters a stagnant and adjusting trend, the spot basis quotation will be supported; if the futures price rises again, the spot basis quotation will be dragged down and may decline to some extent [12]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak. The operating rate of the industrial downstream continues to decline, and the finished - product inventory continues to rise. However, the weakening force is still not strong. The basis of old - crop cotton remains relatively firm, with only a small number of adjustments in the basis in some areas, while the mainstream price remains unchanged. There is still support for cotton prices, and the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the macro and industrial downstream demand [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is still relatively abundant. The sales speed of low - priced eggs is acceptable, while that of high - priced eggs is average. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a slight decline in the later period [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 is 3067 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.32%); the basis of M2509 is - 127 yuan, up 10 yuan (7.30%); the spot basis in Guangdong is m2509 - 140; the crushing profit of Brazilian imports in August is 188 yuan, up 27 yuan (16.8%); the warehouse receipt is 26001, unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2581 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.35%); the futures price of RM2509 is 2679 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%); the basis of RM2509 is - 8 yuan, up 4 yuan (5.77%); the spot basis in Guangdong is rm09 - 90; the crushing profit of Canadian imports in November is - 30 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 31.25%); the warehouse receipt is 25824, down 30 (- 0.12%) [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4259 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.61%); the basis of the main soybean contract is - 299 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 9.52%); the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3690 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract is 3750 yuan, down 14 yuan (- 0.37%); the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract is - 60 yuan, up 14 yuan (18.92%); the warehouse receipt is 19811, down 316 (- 1.57%) [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract basis is 505 yuan, down 135 yuan (- 21.09%); the price of live pigs 2507 is 13335 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.60%); the price of live pigs 2509 is 13895 yuan, up 135 yuan (0.98%); the 7 - 9 spread is 560 yuan, up 55 yuan (10.89%); the main contract position is 76202, down 84 (- 0.11%); the warehouse receipt is 750, unchanged [3]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan is 14400 yuan, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 14500 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Sichuan, it is 13650 yuan, down 100 yuan; in Liaoning, it is 13950 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 15490 yuan, down 50 yuan; in Hunan, it is 13910 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei, it is 14300 yuan, up 100 yuan [3]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 is 2409 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.17%); the basis is - 29 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 16.00%); the 9 - 1 spread is 120 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.69%); the price of Shekou bulk grain is 2460 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%); the north - south trade profit is 9 yuan, up 10 yuan (1000.00%); the CIF price is 1927 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.12%); the import profit is 533 yuan, up 12 yuan (2.35%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 16, down 132 (- 89.19%); the position is 1818031, up 12153 (0.67%); the warehouse receipt is 216521, unchanged [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 is 2701 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%); the spot price in Changchun is 2720 yuan, unchanged; in Weifang, it is 2940 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 19 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 5.00%); the 7 - 9 spread is - 87 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.33%); the starch - corn futures spread is 292 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 1.02%); the profit of Shandong starch is - 88 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 12.82%); the position is 254743, down 14605 (- 5.42%); the warehouse receipt is 24233, unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5573 yuan, up 47 yuan (0.85%); the price of sugar 2509 is 5720 yuan, up 62 yuan (1.10%); the price of ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.53 cents/lb, up 0.18 cents (1.10%); the 1 - 9 spread is - 147 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 11.36%); the main contract position is 368972, down 15708 (- 4.08%); the warehouse receipt is 27669, down 610 (- 2.16%); the effective forecast is 0 [10]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning is 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.17%); in Kunming, it is 5855 yuan, unchanged; the basis in Nanning is 310 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 14.36%); in Kunming, it is 135 yuan, down 62 yuan (- 31.47%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4393 yuan, down 42 yuan (- 0.95%); outside the quota is 5578 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.98%) [10]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.60%); the futures price of Y2509 is 7736 yuan, unchanged; the basis of Y2509 is 714 yuan, up 50 yuan (7.53%); the spot basis in Jiangsu in June is 09 + 240; the warehouse receipt is 17552, unchanged [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8820 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.23%); the futures price of P2509 is 8382 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.05%); the basis of P2509 is 438 yuan, up 24 yuan (5.80%); the spot basis in Guangdong in June is 09 + 300; the import cost of Guangzhou Port in September is 8898 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.24%); the import profit is - 516 yuan, down 25 yuan (- 5.09%); the warehouse receipt is 540, unchanged [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 9920 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.20%); the futures price of O1509 is 9397 yuan, up 46 yuan (0.49%); the basis of O1509 is 523 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 4.74%); the spot basis in Jiangsu in June is 09 + 180; the warehouse receipt is 100, unchanged [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13495 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.22%); the price of cotton 2601 is 13515 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.11%); the price of ICE US cotton main contract is 66.76 cents/lb, up 0.19 cents (0.29%); the 9 - 1 spread is - 20 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 300.00%); the main contract position is 524982, down 936 (- 0.18%); the warehouse receipt is 10532, down 75 (- 1.62%); the effective forecast is 303, down 5 [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 14775 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.07%); the CC Index of 3128B is 14891 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.08%); the FC Index of M: 1% is 13438 yuan, unchanged; the basis of 3128B - 01 contract is 1269 yuan, up 19 yuan (1.52%); the basis of 3128B - 05 contract is 1249 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.32%) [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of egg 09 contract is 3662 yuan/500KG, down 11 yuan (- 0.30%); the price of egg 07 contract is 2936 yuan/500KG, down 3 yuan (- 0.10%); the basis is - 691 yuan/500KG, up 55 yuan (7.39%); the 9 - 7 spread is 726 yuan, down 8 yuan (- 1.09%) [14]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan (1.92%); the price of egg - laying chicken chicks is 4.00 yuan/feather, down 0.10 yuan (- 2.44%); the price of culled chickens is 4.44 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan (- 2.63%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.24, down 0.09 (- 3.86%); the breeding profit is - 33.26 yuan/feather, down 5.38 yuan (- 19.30%) [14].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 | | | | | | | 员知 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月19日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月18日 张跃 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | 8400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8350 50 0.60% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the hog and corn markets by Caida Futures, dated May 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hog price is expected to remain weakly stable, with supply likely to increase and consumption support insufficient [5] - The corn market may experience a short - term high - level adjustment, with limited upside space and weakening upward momentum [7] Summary by Category Hog Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the hog futures contract LH2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous week. The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of May 9, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 84.33 yuan/head, down 0.72 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, up 9.93 yuan/head week - on - week. The pig - grain ratio was 6.44, down 0.15 week - on - week [5] - **Market Analysis**: The hog spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. After the holiday, the supply of standard hogs from small farmers was limited, and the large - scale farms did not increase their slaughter volume. However, the downstream demand declined. The market supply - demand game continued. The sentiment of resistance to selling at a low price among farmers remained, but the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased, and the consumption support was insufficient. The supply is expected to increase in the future [5] Corn Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the corn futures contract C2507 closed at 2,375 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The national average spot price of corn was 2,363.53 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - **Industrial Consumption**: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2197 million tons of corn, down 21,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 636,700 tons, up 11,900 tons from the previous week, and the weekly output of corn starch was 325,500 tons. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 41.22%, down 4.12% from the previous week, and the weekly production of DDGS was 83,880 tons, down 9.10% [6] - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.946 million tons, with a decrease of 5.18%. As of May 9, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 4.25 million tons, and the corn inventory in the Guangdong port was 1.53 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The corn spot market was strong. In the Northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level was almost exhausted, and the auction of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had obvious premium. In the North China, the arrival volume of corn at the deep - processing plants was low, and the purchase price increased significantly. The operating rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise, but the high price of raw materials might limit the production enthusiasm. The operating rate of the alcohol industry continued to decline. Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the rising space of corn will be limited by the need to clear warehouses for new wheat [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure will ease at the end and beginning of the month, but the selling willingness of breeders and second - fattening farmers increases, and the mid - term supply pressure will increase due to the growth cycle of sows in the second and third quarters. - After the Dragon Boat Festival, terminal demand will cool down again, and the seasonal consumption of pork will weaken with rising temperatures. - In the short term, the change in the slaughter rhythm will lead to an adjustment in hog prices, but the overall price trend is weak due to the mid - term supply - demand imbalance with a looser pattern. - The recommended strategy is to short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: Hog prices fluctuated and adjusted, with the main contract rising 0.67% weekly. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure will ease in the short term but increase in the mid - term, and demand will decline seasonally. Overall, the short - term price will adjust, and the mid - term trend is weak. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies and conduct rolling operations. [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, futures fluctuated and adjusted. The net short position of the top 20 futures decreased, and there were 0 futures warrants. As of May 30, the net short position of the top 20 in hog futures was 8,804 lots, 3,750 lots less than last week, and the number of futures warrants decreased by 633 to 5 lots compared to last week. [10][12][16] - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the July and September hog contracts was 1,295 yuan/ton and 895 yuan/ton respectively this week. - The national average hog price was 14.62 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from last week and down 1.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.66 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and down 0.59% from last month. - The national pork price was 25.68 yuan/kg in the week of May 22, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. - The hog - grain ratio was 6.29 as of the week of May 21, down 0.13 from the previous week, below the break - even point and continuing to weaken. [20][27][31][35] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In April, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly month - on - month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal inventory. The inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms in April showed a slight increase. - In the first quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and the inventory of institutions increased slightly in April. - In April, the hog slaughter volume increased, and the average slaughter weight remained unchanged. [40][43][46] - **Industry**: - As of May 30, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 84.37 yuan/head, a decrease of 68.32 yuan/head month - on - month; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 35.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.56 yuan/head month - on - month. The poultry breeding profit was a loss of 0.36 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.09 yuan/head week - on - week. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but at a historically low level. - As of May 30, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from last week. - As of May 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,975.14 yuan/ton, down 52.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2,376.08 yuan/ton, up 4.31 yuan/ton from the previous week. - As of May 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 943.45, up 0.3% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the monthly feed output was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons. - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased year - on - year, but the decline narrowed. [51][56][60][65] - **Downstream**: - In the 22nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 29.35%, up 0.8 percentage points from last week and 9.03 percentage points higher year - on - year. The frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, unchanged from last week. - As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million heads, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. [79][84] - **Hog Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided. [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may approach 4,000 ringgit. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will likely range - bound with a chance of briefly rising to 8,200. [1] - CBOT soybean oil is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are deteriorating, and the spot basis will likely decline. [1] Meal - Due to the impact on Argentine soybeans and the rise of US soybeans, domestic meal prices follow. With sufficient supply expected, the basis of meal stabilizes, and the support for soybean meal at around 2,900 strengthens. [2] Livestock (Pigs) - Pig prices are expected to remain volatile. The 09 contract is below 14,000, with limited room for significant decline or sharp rise. [4][5] Corn - In the short - term, corn prices will fluctuate narrowly, while in the long - term, they are expected to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips. [8] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the early harvest is slow, but the 25/26 season is expected to be a bumper harvest. Domestic sugar supply is abundant, and prices are expected to remain volatile. [12] Cotton - Domestic cotton prices may range - bound after a short - term rise, and further increases depend on downstream improvement. [14] Eggs - National egg supply is sufficient, and prices may first fall and then rise slightly this week. [16] 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On May 21, compared with May 20, the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.58%, and the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 1.09%. [1] - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market decreased by 4.65%, and the 09 - 01 soybean oil spread decreased by 42.86%. [1] Meal - **Price Changes**: The price of soybean meal futures (M2509) increased by 1.56%, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2509) increased by 1.67%. [2] - **Spread Changes**: The 09 - 01 soybean meal spread increased by 3.03%, and the 09 - 01 rapeseed meal spread increased by 5.29%. [2] Livestock (Pigs) - **Price Changes**: The spot price of pigs in most regions decreased slightly, and the 09 contract price decreased by 0.29%. [4] - **Indicator Changes**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.23%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 4.35%. [4] Corn - **Price Changes**: Corn futures (2507) increased by 0.52%, and corn starch futures (2507) increased by 0.11%. [8] - **Indicator Changes**: The basis of corn decreased by 600.00%, and the north - south trade profit decreased by 166.67%. [8] Sugar - **Price Changes**: Sugar futures (2601) increased by 0.32%, and the spot price in Nanning increased by 0.08%. [12] - **Industry Data**: National sugar production increased by 11.63% year - on - year, and sales increased by 26.07%. [12] Cotton - **Price Changes**: Cotton futures (2509) increased by 0.34%, and the 3128B spot price in Xinjiang increased by 0.15%. [14] - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% month - on - month, and imports decreased by 14.3%. [14] Eggs - **Price Changes**: The 09 contract of eggs decreased by 0.32%, and the 06 contract decreased by 0.98%. [15] - **Indicator Changes**: The price of egg - laying chicks decreased by 1.19%, and the price of culled hens decreased by 0.57%. [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures are expected to continue their downward trend, with a long - term bearish view. The first target for the decline is around 3,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, palm oil has fallen below 8,000 yuan and may seek support in the 7,900 - 8,000 yuan range. - For soybeans, concerns about the US renewable diesel quota policy (RVO) have led to a market decline. If there is no new news on the biodiesel policy, the July contract will fluctuate around the daily mid - track at 48.9 cents, and may fall to 46 cents later. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is increasing, and the spot basis price is expected to decline [1]. Sugar Industry - Although the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, the 25/26 sugar - cane season still has a promising harvest. Short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and sales are strong. The market focus is on future import rhythms, and sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile [3]. Cotton Industry - Macro - level conditions have marginally improved, but US tariffs on Chinese cotton products remain high, which is unfavorable to domestic export - oriented enterprises. The industry's improvement is not obvious, and short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate after rising, and further increase requires downstream improvement [5]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly next week [8]. Meal Industry - Spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean supply pressure is being realized. In the domestic market, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill operations are rising, but demand is not boosted, and the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2,900 [10]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. The fat - to - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. There may be an increase in the second - fattening pig supply. The demand is weak, and pig prices are expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is below 14,000, and the market is expected to neither decline sharply nor rise strongly [13][14]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is stable, with the base grain sold out and the right of grain ownership transferred to traders. The price is stable in the northeast and may be slightly adjusted down in the north - central region. In the long term, the supply will tighten, and the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On May 16, the price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,450 yuan/ton, down 0.53% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean oil were 12,370, up 13.80%; palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,500, up 13.80%; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,725 [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the sugar 2601 contract was 5,723 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; the sugar 2509 contract was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The spot price in Nanning was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production reached 11.1072 million tons, an increase of 11.63%; sales were 7.2446 million tons, an increase of 26.07%. The national sugar sales rate was 65.22%, an increase of 12.97% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the cotton 2509 contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the cotton 2601 contract was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,479 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 8.0% to 415.26 tons, and the textile industry's inventory decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [5]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the egg 09 contract was 3,788 yuan/500KG, down 0.18%; the egg 06 contract was 2,894 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The egg - producing area price was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.07% [8]. - **Related Data**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 4.15 yuan per bird, down 1.19%; the price of culled hens was 5.22 yuan/jin, down 0.57% [8]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On May 19, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,020 yuan/ton, down 0.98%; the price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal were 36,286, up 14.2%; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 31,068, down 0.67%; soybean warehouse receipts were 29,758, down 1.13% [10]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the pig 2507 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the pig 2509 contract was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The spot price in Henan was 14,980 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Industry Data**: The sample - point slaughter rate decreased by 0.32% to 146,383 heads; the self - breeding profit per pig decreased by 4.35% to 81 yuan; the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.66% to 4,039 million heads [13]. Corn Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 19, the corn 2507 contract was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2,685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hold price of corn was 2,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Changchun spot price of corn starch was 2,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [16]. - **Industry Data**: The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 6.46% to 884; the corn starch warehouse receipts increased by 24.58% to 26,620 [16].

Core Viewpoint - The live pig market is experiencing a prolonged period of low prices due to an oversupply and weak terminal demand, with expectations of continued price declines into 2025 [1][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of May 9, the average price of live pigs in the mainstream market is 14.78 yuan/kg, down 1.54 yuan/kg from the beginning of the year, indicating a weak price trend [1]. - The slaughtering rate has decreased to 34.53%, down 1.05 percentage points from before the Labor Day holiday, reflecting a return to normal demand levels post-holiday [2]. - The daily slaughter volume tracked by 134 pig slaughtering enterprises is at its highest level since 2019, while frozen product inventory rates have increased to 18.93%, suggesting continued supply pressure [3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The price of piglets has also declined, with the average price for 7 kg three-way cross piglets at 537.78 yuan/head, down 13.05 yuan/head from April's peak, indicating reduced market activity [4]. - The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to limit the willingness to replenish stocks, leading to further declines in piglet prices [5]. Breeding Stock and Future Projections - The number of breeding sows has shown a slight decrease, with 40.39 million reported in March 2025, down 0.66% from previous months, which may lead to a decline in live pig output starting in late 2025 [6]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs has increased to 126.51 kg/head, up 4.28 kg/head from January's low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics if secondary fattening operations increase [7]. Profitability and Market Outlook - Despite the decline in live pig prices, breeding profits remain positive, with profits for self-breeding at 226 yuan/head, down 152 yuan/head from the start of the year, suggesting that the industry has not yet faced significant losses [8]. - The expectation is for continued weak prices in the short to medium term, with potential for a turnaround in the third quarter if breeding capacity continues to decrease [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the egg industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises decreased slightly, the culling age decreased slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs remained basically the same, and the price of chicks continued to decline from a high level. - Due to the limited time this year when egg prices fell below feed costs, most breeding farms chose to extend the breeding period or molt the hens. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, egg supply was tight, but after May Day, with molting hens starting to lay eggs and the arrival of the rainy season in the South, there may be a situation of strong supply and weak demand. - Recently, the inventory pressure in the sales areas has increased. Egg traders mainly purchase based on rigid demand, and the sales in the production areas are slow, but the festival effect still provides short - term support. - The breeding profit has dropped significantly and is lower than the average level of the past four years. Currently, it is near the break - even point. If continuous losses occur, farmers may accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity. - The egg basis has decreased slightly this week, and the near - month futures contracts are still slightly at a discount. The current price difference between the near - term and far - term egg futures is at a medium level. From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional investors in the main egg futures contract shows an oscillating state. - Based on the analysis of the egg fundamental cycle, the current situation is similar to that in the first half of 2020. Before the production capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term egg futures is expected to continue. It is recommended to wait and observe for reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - It includes sub - sections on spot prices, egg basis, egg price differences, and futures institutional net positions [3][6][9][12] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as laying hen inventory, culling situation, replenishment situation, and the situation of large and small eggs [14][16][19][21] Demand Analysis - Consists of sub - sections on shipping volume and sales volume, inventory, and substitutes [24][27][30] Profit Analysis - Includes breeding profit and egg - feed price ratio [33][36]