1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills, combined with the decline in the operation of mines in some production areas, has improved the coking coal inventory structure. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated. With the tight supply of coke and the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term [2][5]. - In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished steel products is relatively large, showing obvious characteristics of a lackluster peak season. There is still pressure on the real - end of steel products. If the contradictions in finished steel products cannot be effectively resolved and the profitability of steel mills continues to deteriorate, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal industry [5]. - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic mines faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market expectations have significantly improved. This year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, which will form a phased support for the prices of coking coal and coke [9]. - If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black - metal industry is expected to move up, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - position varieties in the black - metal sector [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills and the decline in mine operation in some areas have improved the coking coal inventory structure, leading to a tight supply situation in the spot market, which has strengthened both the basis and the calendar - spread positive arbitrage of coking coal. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the second - round price increase is about to be implemented. There is a possibility that coking coal prices will continue to rise and squeeze coking profit. The production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated, resulting in a tight supply of coke. With the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term. However, approaching the off - season, the marginal demand for steel has weakened, and the high hot - metal output has intensified the inventory contradiction of finished steel products, putting pressure on steel prices and continuously shrinking steel mill profits. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of JM2601 is 1100 - 1350, and that of J2601 is 1550 - 1850 [12]. - **Basis Strategy**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and the valuation of the futures market relative to the spot market is low. Customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy. The basis of coke has shrunk, and the basis level is moderately low. Eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [12]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal is temporarily abolished. The spot market in the near - term is strong, and the logic of reverse arbitrage is not clear. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the coking profit in the futures market at high prices. The recommended entry range is 1.5 - 1.55 for the ratio of 01 - contract coke to coking coal [12]. 3.1.3 Operation Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1350, and that of coke is 1550 - 1850 [13]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory hedging, when steel mill profits are marginally shrinking and it is more difficult for coke enterprises to raise prices, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke. For procurement management, when factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low operating rates of coking coal mines, and off - season inspections and anti - involution policies disrupt coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw - material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [13]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and daily production of 523 coking coal mines have decreased, while the operating rate and daily production of 314 coal - washing plants have increased. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased slightly [14]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises have decreased slightly, while those of 247 steel mills have increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has remained basically unchanged [14]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally increased, and the basis and calendar - spread of coking coal and coke have shown different trends [15][16][17]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased. The environmental protection in Wuhai has been tightened again, affecting the production of some coal mines. The production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has decreased [19]. - **Negative Information**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants has increased. The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, and the daily hot - metal output has decreased slightly [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest - rate decision next Thursday. China's official manufacturing PMI for October and the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for September will be released next Friday [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The current spot market of coking coal shows a tight supply situation. If the coking coal main contract can effectively break through the 1260 pressure level, it is expected to冲击 the previous high of 1330 in the short term; otherwise, it will return to the 1100 - 1260 oscillation range [22]. - **Fund Trends**: Recently, the net short positions of the main seats in coking coal and coke have significantly decreased, indicating that some short - side funds are actively leaving the market. The market's bullish expectations for the future have increased, and the marginal improvement in fund sentiment has provided some support for the prices of coking coal and coke [24]. - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: Recently, the term structure of coking coal has changed from a deep C - structure to a gentle C - structure, and the 1 - 5 calendar - spread positive arbitrage has strengthened [28]. - **Basis Structure**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy; the basis of coke has shrunk, and eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [31]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit in the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The idea of shorting the coking profit in the futures market at high prices remains unchanged [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The cost of coal for coking has increased, and the profit of mines has improved month - on - month, while the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The inventory pressure of finished steel products is large, the profits of blast - furnace and electric - arc - furnace steel mills have continued to shrink, and the hot - metal output has slightly decreased marginally [38]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import and Export Profits - Since June, the profit of long - term coking coal trade with Mongolia has recovered, and the enthusiasm for customs clearance has significantly increased compared with the second quarter. The current customs clearance of Mongolian coal is basically the same as that of the same period last year. The inventory pressure at the port is not large, and traders are actively holding up prices. The calculated sea - borne coal profit has shrunk since mid - September, and the import profit of some coal types has turned negative, but the import window remains open, and the coal shipping volume is still at a high level [40][47]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Due to the pressure of over - production inspection and safety supervision, the production - increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. It is estimated that the average weekly output of coking coal in November will be 9.7 - 9.75 million tons. In terms of imports, although the import profit of sea - borne coal has declined compared with July, the import window remains open, and the supply of imported coal in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a high level. It is estimated that the net import volume of coking coal in November will be 9.8 - 10 million tons, equivalent to an average weekly net import volume of about 2.3 million tons. The production enthusiasm for coke has been suppressed, and it is estimated that the weekly coke output in November will be maintained at 7.7 - 7.75 million tons [62][64]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The profitability of blast furnaces has rapidly deteriorated recently. Although there has been no large - scale active production reduction in the industry at present, as the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to conduct maintenance is gradually increasing. It is expected that the hot - metal output will show a slow downward trend in the later period. According to the current maintenance plan, the national daily average hot - metal output is expected to drop to 2.39 million tons next week [67]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot - metal, actual hot - metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot - metal in different weeks from Week 31 to Week 45 in 2025 [69].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is dated October 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Steel Products (Chengcai) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Steel products are expected to oscillate and consolidate, with prices moving downward and the center of gravity shifting lower due to a weak supply - demand situation and pessimistic market sentiment, and a lackluster winter storage season [1][3] - **Summary**: - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will shut down for maintenance from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Later concerns include macro policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Aluminum Products - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with high - level fluctuations. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but macro overseas events affect market sentiment [1][4] - **Summary**: - On October 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 618,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from Monday and 9,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The overall开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.4%, with some sectors showing different trends [3] - The market is waiting for the US September CPI data, with an expected 0.4% month - on - month increase in overall CPI and a 0.3% increase in core CPI [2] - Later concerns include macro expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt prices in Northeast China have continued to decline in October, with a significant drop in both average and low prices due to multiple factors including falling crude oil prices and weak demand during the traditional peak season [1][3]. Market Price Changes - As of October 20, the average price in the Northeast market decreased by 125 CNY/ton to 3796 CNY/ton, while the low price dropped by 250 CNY/ton to 3506 CNY/ton compared to the end of September [1]. - The prices in Hebei and Shandong also fell, with Hebei's low price down by 300 CNY/ton to 3340 CNY/ton and Shandong's low price down by 170 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton [5]. Demand Factors - The arrival of the strongest cold air in the second half of the year has led to a rapid decline in demand, with temperatures dropping significantly across northern regions [5]. - The production of modified asphalt in Northeast China has largely ceased by mid-October due to low temperatures, further weakening demand [5]. Supply Factors - Northeast refineries have increased production, leading to a surplus and forcing them to lower prices to stimulate sales [7]. - The limited number of refineries capable of producing asphalt in the Northeast has resulted in increased pressure on prices due to competition from external suppliers [5][7]. Future Market Outlook - Attention is shifting towards winter storage, with the pricing for winter storage yet to be determined based on the actions of major refineries in Shandong and Hebei [7]. - Current weather conditions in Shandong and Hebei are still suitable for construction, and refineries are expected to maintain good processing profits, indicating that the timing for winter storage may still be early [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal price is expected to continue to rise due to low terminal inventory and increased winter storage demand from power plants, despite tight supply conditions influenced by regulatory scrutiny and maintenance on the Daqin Railway [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Coal supply is gradually recovering in production areas, but remains tight due to strict regulations and Daqin Railway maintenance. The cold weather in northern regions is leading to an expansion in heating coverage, which boosts the purchasing enthusiasm for winter storage by power plants, indicating a continued strong coal price outlook [1][2][3]. - In the coking coal sector, production increases are limited due to safety regulations and checks on overproduction, leading to pressure on the profits of downstream coking steel enterprises. There is resistance to high-priced coal types, but overall low inventory levels and winter storage needs suggest that coking coal prices will continue to fluctuate [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The equity market experienced a near-universal decline, but coal stocks significantly outperformed the indices. Uncertainties regarding US-China tariffs have increased market volatility. Following comments from Trump about tariffs on Chinese goods, there was a brief rally in US indices, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed strong risk aversion, with banks and coal sectors attracting capital [2][3]. - The average trading volume in the market was 2.1 trillion yuan, with daily financing purchases fluctuating around 210 billion yuan, indicating a reduction in trading volume compared to the previous week [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests continuing to focus on high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and high dividends, as these are likely to perform well in the current market environment [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a gradual recovery in coal supply due to the cessation of rainfall, tight supply conditions persist due to stricter regulations and maintenance on the Daqin Railway, leading to expectations of strong coal prices as winter approaches and power plants increase procurement [1] - The coal sector is experiencing significant demand in the secondary market, with banks and coal stocks being favored by investors, resulting in coal stocks outperforming the broader market indices [1] - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a high dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months, highlighting its investment value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] Group 2 - Investors are advised to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on investment opportunities within the coal sector [1] - The coal sector's strong performance is attributed to increased cash flow and high dividends from quality coal stocks, making them attractive to investors [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited support to prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - **铝锭**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term and fluctuate. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but the market sentiment is affected by repeated overseas macro - interference events. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production Disruption**: In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 74.1 million tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic sentiment and low winter storage, resulting in a downward - shifting price center [4]. **铝锭** - **Macro Environment**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and again in December. The U.S. federal government shutdown has hindered the release of key macro - economic data, increasing market uncertainty about the U.S. economy [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to increase aluminum ingot production. Domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, with a 400,000 - ton reduction in Shanxi due to the rainy season, but the supply surplus pressure remains. The overall alumina industry still has a profit, and the spot market is in a state of loose supply. The average开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year, and different sub - industries face various challenges [4]. - **Inventory**: On October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

Report Title - South China Futures Coking Coal and Coke Industry Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal and coke is strong, but negative feedback risks need to be vigilant. The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. - In the short term, the coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern, but the downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated marginally, and the steel mill's profitability is under pressure, restricting the rebound space of coking coal [2]. - In the long term, in the fourth quarter, domestic mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. The market expectation for the winter storage in 2026 is improved, which will support the prices of coking coal and coke [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern. Before the festival, there was overselling at the pithead, the upstream inventory pressure was generally light, and the mine owners were strongly willing to hold prices. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port has also tightened, and the inventory in the regulatory area is low [2][4]. - The supply - demand contradiction of downstream steel products has deteriorated marginally, the steel mills' profitability is under pressure, and the black industry shows the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season". The rebound space of coking coal is restricted, and there is a risk of negative feedback [2]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The entry interval is (-70, -60) [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - Basis strategy: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [11]. - Calendar spread strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal. Reasons include industrial hedging short positions and warehouse - receipt pressure in the 01 contract, weak short - selling power in the far - month 05 contract; limited position constraints in the 01 contract and fewer restrictions in the far - month contracts; and the expansion of delivery warehouses and capacity by the DCE, which is beneficial for short - selling delivery [11]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices, with the recommended entry interval of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55) [11][13]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Some strategies such as the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal, shorting the coking profit on the futures market, etc., are in different states of execution [17]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1300, and that of coke is 1550 - 1800 [14]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - Inventory hedging: Steel mills' profitability is shrinking marginally, and coke enterprises' price increase is difficult. Coke enterprises can short the J2601 contract to lock in the sales price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. - Procurement management: Affected by policies, the supply of coking coal is disturbed. Coking plants can go long on the JM2605 contract to lock in the procurement price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The production of coking coal in some mines and washing plants has increased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The inventory in some ports has decreased [15]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of coke in independent coking plants and steel mills has decreased, and the total inventory has decreased [15]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the spot and futures markets have shown different trends, and the basis, calendar spread, and coking profit have also changed [16][18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central safety production assessment and inspection are about to be carried out; the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut is high; mainstream coke enterprises plan to raise the price of dry - quenched coke [21]. - **Negative Information**: The supply and inventory of five major steel products have decreased, but the consumption is still lower than the same period in previous years; the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is negative; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills is flat, but the profitability is shrinking [22]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: Release of China's one - year loan prime rate, year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in September, and year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in September [23]. - October 20 - 23: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held [24]. - Next Thursday: Release of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 [24]. - Next Friday: Release of the US unadjusted CPI annual rate in September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October, and the final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend**: The main coking coal contract JM2601 is in a wide - range shock interval of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with strong support at the lower edge of the interval [25]. - **Capital Flow**: The net short positions of the main coking coal seats have decreased significantly, and the market's bullish expectation for the future has increased. The net short positions of the profitable coke seats have first increased and then decreased, and the market sentiment has improved [27]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The coking coal and coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure. The 1 - 5 calendar spread of coking coal strengthened during the week and then declined slightly [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [38]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit on the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices [44]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The mine profit has improved month - on - month, but the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The steel mill's profit has continued to shrink, and the iron - making output has decreased marginally [46]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered, and the customs clearance enthusiasm has increased. The import profit of sea - borne coal has shrunk, and the subsequent arrival pressure is expected to ease [50][54]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal from mid - to late October will be 980 - 985 tons. The net import volume of coking coal in October is expected to be 980 tons, with an average weekly net import volume of about 221 tons [72]. - The coke production enthusiasm is suppressed, and it is expected that the weekly coke production from mid - to late October will be maintained at 773 - 775 tons [75]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The blast furnace profitability has declined marginally, and some steel mills have gradually switched to producing hot - rolled coils. As the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to carry out maintenance is increasing, and the iron - making output is expected to decline slowly [77]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are estimated, including production, import, total supply, theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, and inventory [80].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材): Expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity, and run in a weak and volatile manner. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support. The view is for volatile consolidation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots: The price is expected to run in a short - term range. In the short term, the fundamentals are stable, but macro - overseas interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The price is currently in a high - level shock, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production suspension impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel enterprises' production suspension during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [2][3]. - Real estate transaction data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Market situation: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no significant highlights in the near term, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Later focus: Macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Supply - side situation: After entering October, due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, the proportion of direct aluminum water supply is expected to increase, resulting in low aluminum ingot production and reduced market supply, which supports the aluminum price [3]. - Demand - side situation: In early October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The overall industry showed resilience, but the "Golden September and Silver October" in the demand side was lackluster, and the high aluminum price and order differentiation restricted the short - term upward space of the operating rate. High prices will gradually suppress downstream purchasing, leading to a marginal weakening of demand and limiting the upward space of aluminum prices [3]. - Inventory data: On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later focus: Macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观不确定性干扰 关注库消走势 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位运行。宏观美国总统特朗普的措辞有所转变，缓和 了持续紧张的贸易关系，但不确定性仍强，关注情绪扰动。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 ...