一、行情回顾 昨天日盘，螺纹钢盘面延续窄幅波动，主力2605合约收盘价格为3136元/吨，小幅上涨0.26%。 本周全国建材产量回升4.41万吨至355.78万吨，社库减少34.01万吨至474.89万吨，厂库增加1.93万吨至291.58万吨，建材表需回升7.4万吨至252.66 万吨。 三、机构观点 恒泰期货：供给端，淡季钢材需求疲软叠加钢厂利润不佳等因素限制了钢厂生产积极性，部分钢厂主动选择减产，高炉产能利用率下降，日均铁 水产量续降。需求端，淡季水泥、混凝土发运开工速度趋缓，终端建筑需求回落，螺纹需求边际下滑，供需双降，库存仍呈现去化格局。短期宏 观预期影响减弱，需求端仍受制于疲弱的房地产数据，基建托底效果不明显，制造业板块用钢需求滑落，钢材基本面供需双弱，预计短期钢材继 续交易淡季基本面逻辑，冬储为边际变量。估值来看，盘面价格处于低估值，预计短期钢材交易低估值背景下的震荡整理行情。 铜冠金源期货：宏观面，北京调整住房限购政策，市场反应有限。供应端，受盈利低迷及环保限产影响，铁水与热卷产量明显收缩，螺纹产量偏 低。需求端，季节性走弱压力仍存，螺纹去库尚可，热卷库存压力较大。钢材供需双弱，宏观政策预期与 ...

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 25 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位震荡。宏观上海内外宏观情绪偏向利好，市场对美 联储降息预期增强，美联储官员正在平衡就业市场放缓的风险和对顽固高 通胀的担忧，利多铝价及有色金属板块。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观仍有支撑 关注高位压力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-2085765 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：高位震荡，规避追涨风险 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 观点：高位震荡，谨慎观望，规避追涨风险，聚焦供需边际 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-25 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3136 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 8 元/吨（0.255%）。当日注册仓单 60684 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.7429 万手，环比增加 17388 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3285 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104293 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 122.9562 万手，环比增加 31165 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 【策略观点】 供给方面，最新一期海外铁矿石发运量环比下降。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量均不同程度回落。主流矿山 下滑幅度各异。非主流国家发运量小幅回升，处在同期相对高位，近端到港量环比降低。需求方面，最新 一期钢联口径日均铁水产量 226.55 万吨，延续下滑趋势，降幅略超预期。河北 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 25 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1132.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.58%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 | | | | | 收于 1746.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.29%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1114.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 159%；J2605 合约收于 1722.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 1.37%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中钢协数据显示，12 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 184.5 万吨，环比下降 1.3%； | | | | | 钢材库存量 1601 万吨，环比上一旬增长 8.6%，比上月同旬增长 2.6%。 | | | | | 2、北京市进一步优化调整住房限购政策：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，购买五环内 ...

本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 24 日收盘，国内期货主力合约多数上涨。广期所铂、钯 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 17388 手，成交量相比上 一交易日略微缩量，日内震荡运行，最低 3111，最高 3144，收于 3136 元/吨， 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅 0.06%。成交量 837866 手。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3320 元/吨，相 比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 184 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上继续支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 ■宏观面：中央经济会议灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动 性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。美联储 12 月降息 25 基点符合预期。宏观预期稳中偏好。十五五规划建议为钢铁行业指明了"减量不 是衰退，而是高质量发展"的转型路径，核心围绕"控产能、优结构、促转型、提 质量"展开。 ■成本端：铁矿石强势，双焦期货企稳上涨，继续提升成本支撑。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 12 月 ...

库存方面，据中辉期货介绍，库存去化，但仍处近近五年同期偏高位置，其中厂内库存117.97(-5.45)万 吨；港口库存13.8(+1.5)万吨；两广库存14.6万吨(环比持平)。 对于后市走势，光大期货表示，近期市场焦点仍在于印标及我国出口政策变化预期，新增出口配额传言 对市场情绪扰动明显，但消息来源需仔细甄别，政策需以官方为准。在新增利好因素兑现以前，盘面仍 以坚挺震荡趋势为主，关注印标结果及出口预期等因素共振带来的阶段性行情机会，另需关注尿素供应 水平变化、现货成交氛围、商品整体走势、本周尿素库存数据。 12月24日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，尿素期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约震荡上行 1.52%，报1739.00元/吨。 基本面来看，国投安信期货指出，尿素市场受出口新配额的传闻扰动，警惕传闻证伪后行情快速回落的 可能。气头企业检修陆续推进，日产小幅下降。 需求方面，冠通期货分析称，冬储继续推进，工厂对原料端需求有韧性，且目前以高氮复合肥生产为 主，对尿素支撑虽无向上驱动力，但维持刚性。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月24日08时14分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量回升、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所反弹，五大 品种表观需求整体回落，市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价格 大幅反弹，对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短 暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹，目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间，也没有形成向下的突破。 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3126 | 7 | 0.22% | 52 | 1.69% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3277 | 8 | ...