Export Performance - In May, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 6.24% and the seasonal average of 5.66%[8] - The two-year compound growth rate for exports in May was 6.1%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points from April's 4.66%[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -34.52%, negatively impacting overall export growth[21] Trade Partnerships - Exports to ASEAN countries contributed positively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while exports to the EU also showed improvement, contributing 1.76%[9] - The Belt and Road Initiative countries saw a year-on-year export growth of 12.26%, contributing 5.97% to overall exports[11] - Non-US trade partnerships have strengthened, with exports to non-US countries becoming a crucial support for maintaining export resilience[9] Key Export Products - High-tech products and machinery exports remained strong, with machinery exports growing by 7.17% year-on-year[12] - Integrated circuit exports continued to show high growth, while exports of mobile phones and LCD panels experienced a slowdown[12] - Transportation equipment exports were stable, with automotive exports growing by 13.73% and auto parts by 43.65%[16] Import Trends - In May, imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of a 0.31% increase[18] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN countries showed negative contributions, with the US contributing -1.09% to the overall import growth[20] Market Outlook - The report maintains a cautious but optimistic outlook for exports, suggesting that the worst impacts of US tariffs may have passed, with potential for recovery in US-China trade negotiations before the tariff exemption period ends on July 8[22][24] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, but there is potential for structural valuation recovery if negotiations progress positively[26]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The shipping sector is experiencing opportunities due to China's resilient export performance, which grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, significantly higher than last year's 1.4% [1][2][5] - The market structure is currently in a consolidation phase, with upward potential depending on investor expectations regarding economic recovery and downward pressure supported by liquidity [1][6] Key Points on Export Resilience - China's export resilience in 2025 is expected to exceed market expectations, with April exports reaching $315.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [2] - The main drivers of this resilience include aggressive export behavior due to trade policy uncertainties and diversification of trade partners [3][4] Shipping Sector Performance - The shipping sector has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surging by 30.7% week-on-week, marking the second-largest weekly increase in history [1][8] - Following a temporary agreement between the U.S. and China, demand for trans-Pacific routes has increased, with spot freight rates for the West and East coasts of the U.S. reaching $6,000 and $7,000, respectively [8][9] Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The shipping market is characterized by structural tightness due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain reconfigurations, which are expected to create investment opportunities [3][10] - Companies such as China Merchants Industry Holdings and Hong Kong's SITC International Holdings are highlighted as attractive investment targets due to their strong dividends and cash flow [12] Future Outlook - The global container shipping growth rate is projected to be around 6% this year, down from 10.3% last year, indicating a potential slowdown in capacity growth [9][10] - The restructuring of global trade supply chains is expected to significantly impact shipping routes and demand, particularly benefiting companies with high exposure to emerging markets [11][14] Additional Insights - The oil tanker and bulk carrier markets are currently weak, with the T3C route price around $40,000, but long-term oil supply remains secure [13] - The overall supply-demand situation in the shipping market remains tight despite supply growth outpacing demand growth, driven by extended shipping routes and increased transportation needs [11]

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 中美谈判启动带动市场乐观预期 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税动态方面，五一假期期间， 中美谈判现乐观预期，带动市场放量上涨。5 月 10 日，中美 经贸高层会谈开始在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，预计后续陆续取得 进展，但谈判进程预计较为缓慢，二季度关税对外需影响仍然 ...

宏观动态报告 关税冲击下的出口韧性 4 月进出口数据解读 2025年5月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 风险提示:外需走弱的风险;国内经济下行的风险;贸易摩擦加剧的风险。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 集成电路和汽车出口修复上行:(1)4月份机电、高技术和劳动密集型产品 ● 出口增速均有不同程度回落,其中机电产品出口增速 10.1%(前值 13.4%), 高新技术产品出口增速 6.5%(前值 7.3%)，劳动密集型产品出口增速转负至 -1.7%（前值 9.1%）；（2）集成电路 20.2%（前值 7.9%）和汽车包括底盘 4.4%(前值 1.7%)出口增速均有不同程度上行;通用机械设备 17%(前值 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in April recorded a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, which is a decline of over 4 percentage points from March but higher than market expectations, indicating strong export resilience [1][2] Export Performance - The decline in export growth is attributed to a decrease in quantity contribution while price drag has narrowed [4] - Exports to transshipment countries and neighboring regions showed higher growth rates, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while direct exports to the US saw a significant drop [6][8] Factors Contributing to Export Resilience - The resilience in exports is primarily driven by transshipment activities and tariff exemptions on certain goods from the US, with over 20% of Chinese goods exempted from export tariffs, particularly in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - Despite a notable decline in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other transshipment countries have increased significantly, indicating a substantial counterbalance from transshipment activities [6] Future Export Trends - The outlook for exports suggests a potential overall decline, with expectations of reaching a low point by mid-year due to the impact of US inflation and economic slowdown [14] - Even with a downward trend in exports, the corresponding demand for imported components may also decrease, leading to a slower reduction in trade surplus and less drag on economic growth [14] Import Performance - In April, China's import growth was recorded at -0.2%, which is an increase of over 4 percentage points from March, indicating significant improvement in imports [10] - The increase in imports is attributed to improved domestic consumption and a phenomenon of "panic buying" due to retaliatory tariffs from the US [10][12] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in April was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from March, reflecting the overall trends in exports and imports [14]