1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day, with limited upward and downward space. The upper limit is restricted by demand and the lack of substantial reduction in supply, while the lower limit is supported by macro - expectations and restocking [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways. The downward space is limited by restocking and high hot - metal production, but the upward space is constrained by demand and high shipping volumes, resulting in a weak price trend [21]. - For coal and coke, downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and coke's second - round price cut has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The trading logic for the long - term is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - The supply pressure of soda ash in the long - run remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3380 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts remained relatively stable compared to September 19 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on September 22 was 3323 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 95 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore and 01 rebar/01 coke were both stable at 4 and 2 respectively from September 19 to September 22 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 808.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan. The basis of the 01 contract was - 8.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 19, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3324.8 tons [28]. Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: Downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, and the coking coal main - contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 74.0 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - **Data for Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: For ferrosilicon on September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 36 yuan, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5480 yuan/ton. For ferromanganese on September 19, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 116 yuan, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton [51][55]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: The long - term supply of soda ash remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1384 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 23 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.63% [64]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1329 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 14 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.04% [91].

Market Performance - On September 3, A-share market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index closing down, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.95% [1] - The Gold ETF (518880) increased by 1.28%, closing at 7.768 yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.94% and a trading volume of 4.159 billion yuan, ranking first among similar ETFs [1] Fund Flow - Over the past 20 trading days, the Gold ETF experienced a net outflow of 2.038 billion yuan, but in the last 5 trading days, it saw a net inflow of 460 million yuan [1] Gold Price Trends - International gold prices continued to rise, surpassing 3545 USD/ounce on September 3, following a previous day where it crossed the 3500 USD mark, setting a new historical high [2] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to macro policy expectations and political risk concerns, with dovish statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman boosting market expectations for interest rate cuts [2] Analyst Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end gold price target to 3800 USD/ounce, highlighting a significant negative correlation between gold prices and the US dollar index [3] - UBS expects gold prices to continue reaching new highs in the coming quarters, driven by a low interest rate environment, weak economic data, and rising macro uncertainty [3] Fund Overview - The Huaan Gold ETF, established on July 18, 2013, is one of the first gold ETFs in China, managed by experienced fund manager Xu Zhiyan [4] - The fund serves as an important tool for investors to allocate gold assets, allowing direct trading or participation through its linked funds [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline on September 2, with major indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 falling by 0.55%, 0.82%, and 0.69% respectively [1] - Large-cap technology stocks saw a significant drop, with the Wind U.S. Technology Seven Giants Index decreasing by 1.10%, and notable declines in Tesla (down 1.35%), Amazon (down 1.60%), and Nvidia (down 1.97%) [1] - In contrast, popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.52%, and significant gains in stocks like Zhengye Technology (up over 35%) and Baozun (up over 11%) [1] Group 2 - International precious metal prices rose, with London spot gold reaching a historic high of $3532.405 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures also hitting a record high of $3599.5 per ounce [1] - The recent surge in precious metal prices is attributed to macroeconomic policy expectations, particularly the shift towards a "dovish" stance by the Federal Reserve, which has heightened market anticipation for a potential interest rate cut in September [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, fueled by President Trump's personnel changes aimed at increasing control over the Fed, have further enhanced the appeal of precious metals as a safe-haven investment [2]

Market Overview - On September 2, major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 falling by 0.55%, 0.82%, and 0.69% respectively [2][3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.52%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks such as Zhengye Technology up over 35%, Baozun up over 11%, and Li Auto up over 4% [3] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached historical highs, with London spot gold rising by 1.64% to $3532.405 per ounce and COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [5][6] - Both ICE Brent crude and U.S. WTI crude oil prices increased by over 1% [5] European Market - Major European stock indices declined, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.87%, CAC 40 down by 0.70%, and DAX down by 2.29% [4] Google (Alphabet) Update - Google shares saw a significant increase, rising by nearly 7% after a U.S. judge ruled that Google does not need to sell Chrome but must share information with competitors to address online search monopoly issues [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive momentum in China's capital market, driven by coordinated regulatory efforts and supportive macroeconomic policies, leading to a recovery in market stability and investor confidence [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 2900 points to 3600 points since September last year, with the ChiNext Index showing a monthly increase of over 8% in July, outperforming global markets [1] - The central government's recent meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the positive trends in the capital market, indicating a commitment to maintaining stability and growth [1] Group 2 - China's GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year reflects effective macroeconomic policies and the resilience of the economy, with significant structural improvements noted in emerging industries [2] - The combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has provided a solid foundation for economic support, with foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds exceeding $10 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Regulatory upgrades have activated asset valuation recovery, with reforms aimed at enhancing market stability and encouraging long-term capital inflows, thus injecting vitality into the market [3] Group 3 - The articles emphasize that while the market is expected to trend upwards, it will not be without fluctuations, highlighting the importance of China's institutional advantages and comprehensive market structure in fostering a healthy capital market [3] - The focus on optimizing policy environments and solidifying economic foundations is crucial for sustaining the momentum of capital market recovery and supporting high-quality economic development [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the positive momentum in China's capital market, driven by coordinated regulatory efforts and macroeconomic stability [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 2900 points to 3600 points since September last year, with the ChiNext Index showing a monthly increase of over 8% in July, leading global markets [1] - The central government's recent meeting highlighted the need to consolidate the recovery and positive trend of the capital market [1] Group 2 - China's GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year reflects effective macroeconomic policies and the resilience of the economy, with significant structural optimization in emerging industries [2] - The collaboration of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has provided a solid foundation for economic stability, with foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds exceeding $10 billion in the first half of the year [2] - The regulatory upgrades have activated asset valuation recovery, with reforms enhancing market stability and encouraging long-term capital inflow [3] Group 3 - The articles indicate that the capital market's upward trend is supported by the advantages of the socialist system, a large-scale market, a complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [3] - The focus on improving the economic foundation, optimizing the policy environment, and enhancing market systems is crucial for sustaining a healthy capital market that contributes to high-quality economic development [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - In July, the steel market showed signs of recovery with significant increases in both raw material and finished product prices, with raw material prices rising more than finished products [1] - For August, the market sentiment is expected to stabilize following an important meeting, leading to reduced capital inflow and insufficient upward momentum [1][17] - Despite being a traditional off-season, demand for steel has shown unexpected resilience, with inventory levels remaining low [1][17] Group 2: Production and Capacity - As of July 31, the operating rate of electric arc furnaces increased significantly to 45.45%, up 9.09 percentage points month-on-month, while blast furnace operating rates rose slightly to 78.59% [2] - Steel production data indicates that the total weekly output of construction steel reached 3.2782 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.49% [3] - The reduction in production and maintenance efforts in July was slightly less than in June, with a mixed impact across different steel varieties [4] Group 3: Consumption Trends - In July, steel consumption saw a slight decline, with construction steel demand decreasing by 3.6% month-on-month, while expectations for August indicate a narrowing of the decline [6][8] - The construction sector's steel usage fell by 2.7% in July, with a projected further decline of 1.6% in August [8] - Overall, the apparent consumption of construction steel increased to 3.2171 million tons in July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.19% [10] Group 4: Inventory Levels - By the end of July, total steel inventory shifted from a decrease to an increase, remaining significantly lower than the same period last year [12][13] - The total inventory of construction steel reached 6.9966 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2.01% [13] Group 5: Profitability - In July, the profitability of blast furnace steel mills decreased, while electric arc furnace mills saw a rapid recovery in profits, with the profit per ton for blast furnace steel at 201 yuan and for electric arc furnace steel at -112 yuan [15][16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The steel market in August is expected to experience a range-bound fluctuation, with demand showing signs of marginal recovery but still in a downward trend [17][19] - The supply side is expected to remain resilient, with electric arc furnace production increasing and blast furnace operations maintaining profitability [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in glass futures prices, primarily driven by falling coal prices, which reduced production costs for coal-based glass [1] - The glass futures contract FG2509 experienced a trading volume of 2.84 million lots, with an increase in open interest by over 140,000 lots, highlighting heightened speculative trading despite regulatory measures [1] - The macroeconomic policy environment has not provided positive signals, with recent meetings reiterating existing policies without introducing new fiscal measures or real estate support, leading to increased investor risk aversion [1] Group 2 - The overall market for glass is under pressure, with regional performance showing significant differences; for instance, prices in North China are stable while East China sees slight declines [1] - Inventory data reveals a decrease in total inventory to 59.49 million heavy boxes, marking a six-week decline, but this is driven by midstream shifts rather than improvements in end-user consumption [1] - The production side shows a recovery, with the float glass industry operating at a 75% capacity utilization rate, reaching a new high of 79.78% [1] Group 3 - Profit margins for different production processes show a clear divergence, with coal-to-gas and petroleum coke processes achieving weekly profits exceeding 135 CNY/ton, while natural gas processes remain at a loss [2] - The demand outlook remains weak, with policy expectations falling short and urban renewal efforts focusing on high-quality development, resulting in sales rates in major regions between 60-80% [2] Group 4 - Multiple institutions predict that glass prices will maintain high volatility, with structural demand differentiation and unclear seasonal improvement expectations [3] - Some institutions suggest a low-long strategy for glass futures, indicating that the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged despite increased speculative trading [3] - The weak demand from the real estate sector, which constitutes about 75% of glass demand, is expected to dominate short-term market logic, as sales and new construction remain sluggish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] Core Viewpoints - For propylene, after the Politburo meeting, there are strong expectations on the macro - policy front, but the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak. Supply - side pressure is increasing significantly, with device restarts and rising PDH capacity utilization. Many downstream devices have maintenance plans, and the cost support is weak due to the weak oil prices [3]. - For polyolefins, the fundamentals change little, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. There are both shutdown and startup plans for some devices, with rising capacity utilization expectations and increasing supply pressure. The cost support is weak, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures related to propylene basis structure include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract [10][13] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization [19][21][29] III. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Figures include the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37] IV. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Figures cover the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [43][53][60] V. Propylene Inventory - Figures show propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69] VI. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [70][74] VII. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve LL production profit (crude - oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [79][87][93] VIII. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between HD injection molding and LL East China, HD blow molding and LL East China, HD film and LL East China, LD East China and LL, PP low - melt copolymer and drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding and drawn wire in East China [97][100][101] IX. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Figures include LL import profit, differences between LL US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, LL Europe FD and China's CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), differences between PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB and China's CFR, and LL export profit [106][117][122] X. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Figures cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, winding film, PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and their corresponding production gross profits [128][129][134] XI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures show the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [139][142][144]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Hold short positions [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks outweigh the weakening fundamentals, with oil prices showing near - term strength and long - term weakness. Hold short positions [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost - end support and decent fundamentals lead to a rebound. Cautiously bullish [1][6][7] - L: Downstream inquiries increase. Cautiously bullish, but with a weak fundamental pattern [1][9][13] - PP: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins. Cautiously bullish, but high production limits the rebound space [1][16][20] - PVC: Insufficient policy support for demand in the short term. Cautiously bearish [1][23][26] - PX: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and crude oil prices are strong. Cautiously bullish [1][29][31] - PTA: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Cautiously bearish [1][33][35] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro situation does not exceed expectations. Cautiously bearish [1][37][39] - Glass: The market is affected by policy expectations, with inventory reduction. Cautiously bearish [2][41][43] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, but with inventory accumulation and weak downstream support. Cautiously bearish [2][44][45] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. Cautiously bearish [2][46][47] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Fundamentals are relatively loose, with cost support. Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end pressure and neutral - bearish fundamentals. Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak basis and abundant supply. Cautiously bearish [2] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to strengthen. WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 1.10%, and SC rose 1.77% [3] - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical and macro factors are favorable in the short term, but OPEC's production increase brings supply pressure. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous month, while China's imports increased. In terms of inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased [4] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [525 - 540] [5] LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 30, the PG main contract closed at 4045 yuan/ton, up 0.62% [6] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price stabilizes, and downstream chemical demand recovers. The base spread is high, and inventory shows some changes. The supply of liquefied gas has decreased slightly, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates have increased [7] - **Strategy**: Sell put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4000 - 4100] [8] L - **Market Performance**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume decreased [10] - **Fundamentals**: The off - peak season for agricultural films is about to pass, and downstream inquiries have increased. However, most devices are restarting, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels [13] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging when the delivery month approaches. L is expected to be in the range of [7300 - 7500] [13] PP - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [17] - **Fundamentals**: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins, but downstream replenishment power is insufficient, and commercial inventory has started to accumulate. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels, and high production limits the rebound space [20] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging. PP is expected to be in the range of [7000 - 7300] [20] PVC - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [23] - **Fundamentals**: The Politburo meeting did not mention the real estate market, resulting in insufficient short - term demand - side policy support. New production capacity is being released, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks [26] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. V is expected to be in the range of [5050 - 5300] [26] PX - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices showed certain changes [29] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and crude oil prices are strong recently [31] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options. PX is expected to be in the range of [6970 - 7050] [31][32] PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices changed [33] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to new device production, and demand is seasonally weak. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are somewhat differentiated. TA's fundamentals are expected to shift from tight balance to looseness [35] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, shrink the PTA processing fee, or sell call options. TA is expected to be in the range of [4820 - 4890] [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices changed [37] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are declining. Supply and demand are in a tight balance in July, and low inventory provides some support [39] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. EG is expected to be in the range of [4390 - 4470] [40] Glass - **Market Performance**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rose slightly [42] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the market sentiment was strong. The inventory continued to decline, and the profit situation improved [43] - **Strategy**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180, 1260] [43] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Heavy - soda ash spot prices were stable, and the futures market showed mixed trends [44] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the policy expectation, the industry sentiment was boosted, but the alkali plant inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream support was weak [45] - **Strategy**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1300, 1370] [45] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. The main downstream alumina industry has increased its production, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased [47] - **Strategy**: SH is expected to be in the range of [2610, 2680] [47] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Social inventory has decreased, but overall it is at a low level [2] - **Strategy**: Take profit on long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2430] [2] Urea - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: The overall domestic supply is relatively loose, with cost support. The demand in the domestic industrial and agricultural sectors is weak, but exports are relatively good [2] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, arrange short positions on rallies, and sell high - strike call options. UR is expected to be in the range of [1710 - 1750] [2] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and supply and demand are both decreasing. The inventory is accumulating, and the crack spread is at a high level [2] - **Strategy**: Try short positions with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3600 - 3700] [2] Propylene - **Market Performance**: The spot market showed differences in price trends [2] - **Fundamentals**: The PDH operating rate has been rising, and supply is abundant. Pay attention to relevant anti - involution policies [2] - **Strategy**: Hold the 1 - 2 month spread reverse arbitrage and increase the processing fee of the PP futures market. PL is expected to be in the range of [6500 - 6700] [2]