Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Hold short positions [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks outweigh the weakening fundamentals, with oil prices showing near - term strength and long - term weakness. Hold short positions [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost - end support and decent fundamentals lead to a rebound. Cautiously bullish [1][6][7] - L: Downstream inquiries increase. Cautiously bullish, but with a weak fundamental pattern [1][9][13] - PP: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins. Cautiously bullish, but high production limits the rebound space [1][16][20] - PVC: Insufficient policy support for demand in the short term. Cautiously bearish [1][23][26] - PX: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and crude oil prices are strong. Cautiously bullish [1][29][31] - PTA: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Cautiously bearish [1][33][35] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro situation does not exceed expectations. Cautiously bearish [1][37][39] - Glass: The market is affected by policy expectations, with inventory reduction. Cautiously bearish [2][41][43] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, but with inventory accumulation and weak downstream support. Cautiously bearish [2][44][45] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. Cautiously bearish [2][46][47] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Fundamentals are relatively loose, with cost support. Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end pressure and neutral - bearish fundamentals. Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak basis and abundant supply. Cautiously bearish [2] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to strengthen. WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 1.10%, and SC rose 1.77% [3] - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical and macro factors are favorable in the short term, but OPEC's production increase brings supply pressure. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous month, while China's imports increased. In terms of inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased [4] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [525 - 540] [5] LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 30, the PG main contract closed at 4045 yuan/ton, up 0.62% [6] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price stabilizes, and downstream chemical demand recovers. The base spread is high, and inventory shows some changes. The supply of liquefied gas has decreased slightly, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates have increased [7] - **Strategy**: Sell put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4000 - 4100] [8] L - **Market Performance**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume decreased [10] - **Fundamentals**: The off - peak season for agricultural films is about to pass, and downstream inquiries have increased. However, most devices are restarting, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels [13] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging when the delivery month approaches. L is expected to be in the range of [7300 - 7500] [13] PP - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [17] - **Fundamentals**: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins, but downstream replenishment power is insufficient, and commercial inventory has started to accumulate. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels, and high production limits the rebound space [20] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging. PP is expected to be in the range of [7000 - 7300] [20] PVC - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [23] - **Fundamentals**: The Politburo meeting did not mention the real estate market, resulting in insufficient short - term demand - side policy support. New production capacity is being released, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks [26] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. V is expected to be in the range of [5050 - 5300] [26] PX - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices showed certain changes [29] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and crude oil prices are strong recently [31] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options. PX is expected to be in the range of [6970 - 7050] [31][32] PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices changed [33] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to new device production, and demand is seasonally weak. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are somewhat differentiated. TA's fundamentals are expected to shift from tight balance to looseness [35] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, shrink the PTA processing fee, or sell call options. TA is expected to be in the range of [4820 - 4890] [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices changed [37] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are declining. Supply and demand are in a tight balance in July, and low inventory provides some support [39] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. EG is expected to be in the range of [4390 - 4470] [40] Glass - **Market Performance**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rose slightly [42] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the market sentiment was strong. The inventory continued to decline, and the profit situation improved [43] - **Strategy**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180, 1260] [43] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Heavy - soda ash spot prices were stable, and the futures market showed mixed trends [44] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the policy expectation, the industry sentiment was boosted, but the alkali plant inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream support was weak [45] - **Strategy**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1300, 1370] [45] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. The main downstream alumina industry has increased its production, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased [47] - **Strategy**: SH is expected to be in the range of [2610, 2680] [47] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Social inventory has decreased, but overall it is at a low level [2] - **Strategy**: Take profit on long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2430] [2] Urea - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: The overall domestic supply is relatively loose, with cost support. The demand in the domestic industrial and agricultural sectors is weak, but exports are relatively good [2] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, arrange short positions on rallies, and sell high - strike call options. UR is expected to be in the range of [1710 - 1750] [2] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and supply and demand are both decreasing. The inventory is accumulating, and the crack spread is at a high level [2] - **Strategy**: Try short positions with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3600 - 3700] [2] Propylene - **Market Performance**: The spot market showed differences in price trends [2] - **Fundamentals**: The PDH operating rate has been rising, and supply is abundant. Pay attention to relevant anti - involution policies [2] - **Strategy**: Hold the 1 - 2 month spread reverse arbitrage and increase the processing fee of the PP futures market. PL is expected to be in the range of [6500 - 6700] [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1纯碱 - This week, the spot price of soda ash remained stable with a slight upward trend. With the resumption of production of previously shut - down plants, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase. The apparent demand for soda ash increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. The increase in futures prices stimulated the replenishment enthusiasm of downstream and mid - stream enterprises, leading to a reduction in enterprise inventories. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to increase slightly, while the supply of photovoltaic glass is still expected to decrease. In the short term, the near - month contracts still face significant delivery pressure, and the expected macro - policy disturbances have intensified the risk of price fluctuations on the futures market. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for now and pay attention to the impact of macro - policies and the follow - up situation of downstream industries [5]. 2.2 Glass - This week, the spot price of float glass increased. With some previously ignited production lines starting to produce, the output is expected to rise. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of mid - and downstream enterprises increased, and most glass enterprises significantly reduced their inventories. Currently, the operating rate of LOW - E glass sample enterprises is 77.5%, showing a slight decline on a week - on - week basis and remaining at a low level compared to the same period last year. In the short term, the expected macro - policy disturbances are still strong. The weakening sentiment in the commodity market has led to a significant correction in glass futures prices, and the risk of price fluctuations on the futures market is high. It is recommended to wait and see for now and focus on the impact of macro - policies [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The plant operating rate was 83.02% (down 1.08% week - on - week), with the ammonia - soda process at 87.70% (unchanged week - on - week) and the combined - soda process at 72.26% (down 1.67% week - on - week). The weekly output was 72.38 million tons (down 0.94 million tons week - on - week), including 31.49 million tons of light soda ash (down 0.36 million tons) and 40.89 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.58 million tons) [5]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash was 76.48 million tons (up 7.38 million tons), with 35.57 million tons of light soda ash (up 2.89 million tons) and 40.91 million tons of heavy soda ash (up 4.49 million tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 186.46 million tons (down 1.96 million tons), including 74.22 million tons of light soda ash (down 1.49 million tons) and 112.24 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.47 million tons) [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% compared to July 17th. There were 296 glass production lines in the country, with 222 in operation and 74 shut down for cold repair. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 87,700 tons, down 1.52% week - on - week [6]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases week - on - week (down 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year), equivalent to 26.6 days of inventory, 1.3 days less than the previous period [6]. - **Demand**: As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, down 2.1% week - on - week and 7.0% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot Prices - As of July 24, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1,250 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In North China, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, also with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. The price of the soda ash main contract was strong, with the basis in the Shahe area at - 10 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week). The glass futures price rebounded significantly, and the basis in the Shahe area was - 231 yuan/ton (down 195 yuan/ton week - on - week) [11][14]. 3.2.2 Market Review - Spreads - As of July 24, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash was - 77 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 9 - 1 spread of glass was - 95 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan/ton week - on - week); and the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread was 101 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week) [19]. 3.2.3 Fundamentals - Supply - The weekly output of soda ash was 72.38 million tons (down 0.94 million tons week - on - week), including 31.49 million tons of light soda ash (down 0.36 million tons) and 40.89 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.58 million tons). With the resumption of production of previously shut - down plants, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week was 83.02%, down 1.08% week - on - week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of the ammonia - soda process was 87.70% (unchanged week - on - week), and that of the combined - soda process was 72.26% (down 1.67% week - on - week) [25][34]. - There were 296 glass production lines in the country, with 222 in operation and 74 shut down for cold repair. The national daily output of float glass was 159,000 tons, up 0.73% compared to July 17th. This week, the national float glass output was 1.1081 million tons, up 0.09% week - on - week and down 7.06% year - on - year. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 87,700 tons, down 1.52% week - on - week and 22.83% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.4 Fundamentals - Inventory - As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 186.46 million tons (down 1.96 million tons), including 74.22 million tons of light soda ash (down 1.49 million tons) and 112.24 million tons of heavy soda ash (down 0.47 million tons). The apparent demand for soda ash this week was 76.48 million tons, an increase of 7.38 million tons on a week - on - week basis. The apparent demand for light soda ash was 35.57 million tons, an increase of 2.89 million tons on a week - on - week basis, and the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.91 million tons, an increase of 4.49 million tons on a week - on - week basis [37][42]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million heavy cases, down 3.043 million heavy cases week - on - week (down 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year), equivalent to 26.6 days of inventory, 1.3 days less than the previous period. As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, down 2.1% week - on - week and 7.0% year - on - year [49]. 3.2.5 Fundamentals - Profitability - As of July 24, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash production in China was - 35 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (per double - ton) was 17.50 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the concentrated release of positive sentiment last week, the market cooled down this week. Attention should be paid to tariff disturbances around August 1st and the messages released by the Politburo meeting. The five major steel products had a slight reduction in inventory. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and the apparent demand had a significant increase supported by the recovery of speculative demand, leading to a reduction in total inventory again. The decline in the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils was greater than the reduction in production, and the total inventory increased slightly, but the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Currently, the inventory contradiction of finished products was not prominent, and the core of off-season trading remained focused on macro - policy expectations. After the previous concentrated release of benefits, steel prices faced pressure at high levels, and with the pressure decline of coking coal at the raw material end, the cost decreased, and the black series was under pressure, showing a short - term weak and volatile operation [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil had a phased recovery, and the arrival volume was still in a downward process. The daily output of hot metal decreased slightly but was still at a high level year - on - year, and the port clearance volume decreased slightly. The port inventory was stable without obvious inventory accumulation pressure. In the medium term, there was still an expectation of an increase in overseas shipments of iron ore in the second half of the year. After the digestion of the macro - positive sentiment last week, iron ore faced pressure at high levels and the pressure of a decline this week [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the domestic mine production was stable. With the acceleration of market transactions, the inventory pressure was relieved. Coking enterprises were in a loss state due to cost pressure, and some low - inventory coking enterprises limited production to support prices. The increase in coke prices had been launched for four rounds. After multiple limit - up of coking coal, the Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit of coking coal futures, and short - term prices faced the pressure of a decline [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Macro - sentiment recovery and rising raw material costs led to steel prices reaching new highs. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all increased. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders in futures contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, and the price differences also changed. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The market trading core was concentrated on macro - policy expectations and raw material price fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 211.96 tons (up 1.39% month - on - month, down 2.18% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 317.49 tons (down 1.14% month - on - month, down 3.27% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increased, and electric furnace output decreased [15][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (unchanged month - on - month, up 1.00% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 72.02% (up 10.66% month - on - month, up 10.36% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was + 282 yuan/ton (up 64.91% week - on - week, up 362 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 146 yuan/ton (up 78.77% week - on - week, up 307 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 216.58 tons (up 5.05% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.24 tons (down 2.64% month - on - month, down 1.86% year - on - year) [35][37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 538.64 tons (down 0.85% month - on - month, down 29.15% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 345.16 tons (up 0.66% month - on - month, down 19.76% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 4.24% month - on - month and decreased by 16.60% year - on - year. The weekly land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 14.31% month - on - month and decreased by 45.13% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, up 5.5% and 8.1% month - on - month, and up 11.4% and 13.8% year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 104 (up 4.16% month - on - month, up 1.75% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2677.8 tons (up 8.02% month - on - month, up 7.65% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2240.5 tons (down 5.51% month - on - month, up 22.97% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 242.33 tons (down 0.21 tons month - on - month, up 2.62 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 315.15 tons (down 2.35% month - on - month, up 0.45% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.51 days (up 0.75% month - on - month, down 5.84% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 13790.38 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, down 8.61% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8885.22 tons (up 0.71% month - on - month, down 3.47% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.51 days (up 2.48% month - on - month, up 13.36% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.9% (up 0.96% month - on - month, down 4.37% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.31% (down 0.86% month - on - month, down 9.14% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 154400 tons (up 21.57% month - on - month, down 2.72% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 54 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 97 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45% (up 0.60% month - on - month, down 0.90% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.97% [84]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 841.27 tons (up 6.46% month - on - month, up 11.57% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 799.34 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month, up 7.10% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 292.34 tons (down 9.07% month - on - month, up 5.73% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50.12 tons (down 9.78% month - on - month, up 42.35% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 639.98 tons (up 0.15% month - on - month, up 17.86% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 198.13 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month, up 0.20% year - on - year) [90][96]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the fourth round of price increases [97]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, and the 10 - 01 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore and the coil - to - rebar spread both decreased slightly [104][110].

Group 1: Artificial Intelligence and Economic Integration - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with the real economy is becoming increasingly evident, serving as a new engine for economic growth and driving the transformation of traditional industries [5][6] - AI technology is enhancing productivity and optimizing resource allocation across various sectors, indicating a deep collaboration between technology and industry [6][7] - China is taking proactive steps in global AI governance, advocating for AI to be treated as an "international public good" and promoting "intelligent equity" to assist developing countries [6][7] Group 2: Securities Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) identified three certainties for maintaining a stable and healthy market: the certainty of high-quality economic development, the certainty of macro policy expectations, and the certainty of asset valuation recovery [7][8] - These certainties signal a transition from quantity to quality in the economy, with technological innovation and industrial upgrading as core drivers for long-term market stability [8] Group 3: Hainan Free Trade Port Development - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its full island customs operation on December 18, 2025, marking a significant step in expanding openness and establishing a policy framework for the free trade port [9] - The customs operation will facilitate the movement of goods and people, enhancing travel experiences and services without hindering access to the mainland [9] Group 4: Agricultural Product Consumption Promotion - A new policy initiative from ten government departments aims to boost agricultural product consumption through 23 specific measures, emphasizing the importance of agriculture in the national economy [10] - The initiative seeks to address supply-demand imbalances and improve circulation efficiency, thereby stimulating related industries and promoting rural consumption upgrades [10] Group 5: Fiscal Budget Overview - In the first half of the year, China's general public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.3%, while expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [11][12] - The fiscal strategy reflects a proactive approach to stabilize growth and support livelihoods, despite challenges such as weak land finance and uneven tax recovery [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodity market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the opening of coking coal contracts, coking coal contracts rose and then fell, leading to a full - scale correction in black commodities. In the current summer season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise. The market has high expectations for "anti - involution" and strengthened optimistic expectations for macro - policies. Futures prices are likely to enter a high - level shock after a significant pull - up and subsequent correction [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the market is in the off - season. Iron water production is under great pressure to decline, and the room for further increase is limited even in the peak season. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, with future arrivals expected to remain high. Although the port inventory is slowly decreasing, the trade ore inventory is high. With the decline of coking coal and coke prices, iron ore is also expected to adjust, and the short - term price is likely to maintain a high - level shock [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Situation**: After the coking coal contract restrictions, black commodities corrected. The production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased last week, with factory inventory decreasing for the second consecutive week and social inventory increasing for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties rose, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory may rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are likely to enter a high - level shock after a significant increase and subsequent correction [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and consider buying at low prices after a full adjustment for short - term operations. Do not chase rising or falling prices for investors with empty positions [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Price Data**: The closing prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan (1.88%) from the previous day and 209 yuan (6.64%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 927.08 tons, up 4.97 tons (0.54%) from the previous week; the social inventory of threaded steel was 372.97 tons, up 2.81 tons (0.76%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 211.96 tons, up 2.90 tons (1.39%) from the previous week; the hot - rolled coil production was 317.49 tons, down 3.65 tons (-1.14%) from the previous week [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Market Situation**: The steel mill profitability is around 60%. The iron water production of 247 steel mills is 242.1 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous week. In the off - season, iron water production is under pressure to decline, and the increase space is limited even in the peak season. The global shipment is high and rising seasonally, and future arrivals are expected to remain high. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade ore inventory is high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a strong rise, the futures price has been falling, and it is likely to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing rising prices, and wait patiently for a correction before buying at low prices for short - term operations [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 802.5 yuan/dry ton, up 17.5 yuan (2.23%) from the previous week; the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 766 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan (-1.16%) from the previous day but up 16 yuan (2.13%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1404.9 tons, down 165.0 tons (-10.51%) from the previous week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 833.2 tons, up 123.3 tons (17.37%) from the previous week. The northern six - port arrival volume was 1389.2 tons, up 241.3 tons (21.02%) from the previous week [4]. **III. Industry News** - At the "Seminar on Building a Healthy Ecosystem: Coping with Malicious Industry Involution" hosted by leading manganese - based enterprises, relevant enterprises reached two preliminary consensuses: 30% energy - saving and emission - reduction for high, medium, low, and micro - carbon ferromanganese production enterprises, and 40% for silicomanganese alloy production enterprises. To ensure stable production costs after production cuts, several ferroalloy production enterprises have actively increased their manganese ore reserves, locking in nearly one million tons of raw materials [6]. - The shipment of Ghanaian manganese ore has been affected by the rainy season since May. The shipments in May - July were 350,000 tons, 277,000 tons, and 380,000 tons respectively, with a reduction of 47%, 58%, and 43% compared to the monthly average output. The impact of the rainy season in Ghana is expected to last until November [6]. **IV. Steel Mill and Port Data** - For 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, flat compared to the previous week and 1.13 percentage points higher than last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but 1.20 percentage points higher than last year; the profitability rate was 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points from the previous week and 48.49 percentage points higher than last year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4223 million tons, down 0.21 million tons from the previous week but 2.62 million tons higher than last year [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 13.79038 million tons, up 51,700 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1515 million tons, down 75,900 tons. The total inventory at 47 ports was 14.39568 million tons, up 141,700 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, down 94,300 tons [7]. - Steel mills in Hebei and Shandong markets raised the purchase price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, the price of first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1420 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1770 yuan/ton [7]. - According to Steel Silver E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 7.5103 million tons, up 116,600 tons (+1.58%) from the previous week; the inventory of construction steel was 3.9746 million tons, up 42,900 tons (+1.09%) from the previous week [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the three certainties that support the stable and healthy operation of the capital market: certainty of high-quality economic development, certainty of macro policy expectations, and certainty of asset valuation recovery [1] Group 2 - The certainty of high-quality economic development is evidenced by a 5.3% unexpected growth in China's economy in the first half of the year, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.5% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial value-added growth by 3.1 percentage points [2] - The certainty of macro policy expectations is supported by significant investments, such as a private real estate equity investment fund initiated by Schroders Capital and Xi Zi International, totaling approximately 3 billion yuan, focusing on investment opportunities in core cities of the Yangtze River Delta [3] - The certainty of asset valuation recovery is illustrated by the performance of major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 7.22% year-to-date and the Shenzhen Component Index up 7.24%, indicating a potential for value re-evaluation as corporate profits improve and investor confidence returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in coking coal and coke futures prices this week is driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1] Supply Analysis - Coking coal futures (2509 contract) closed at 1,259 CNY/ton, up 35.9% week-on-week; coke futures (2509 contract) closed at 1,763 CNY/ton, up 16.1% week-on-week [1] - Daily average coke production from independent coking enterprises reached 519,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.61%, up 0.71% from the previous week [1] - The initiation of the fourth round of price increases for coke, along with strong demand from steel mills, has contributed to the rise in production and capacity utilization [1] Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, and up 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The profitability of steel mills increased to 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points week-on-week and up 48.49% year-on-year [1] - Daily average molten iron production was 2.4223 million tons, down 2,100 tons week-on-week, but up 26,200 tons year-on-year, indicating sustained high production levels [1] Inventory Analysis - Coking coal inventory at the 247 surveyed steel mills increased to 6.3998 million tons, up 9,900 tons week-on-week; coking coal inventory reached 7.9951 million tons, up 84,100 tons [1] - Independent coking enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, with total coking coal inventory at 9.8538 million tons, up 562,700 tons week-on-week [1] Market Sentiment - The macroeconomic sentiment reflects a "de-involution" trend, with optimistic expectations regarding policies, leading to price increases [1] - The tight supply of coking coal and strong demand for coke, along with the initiation of the fourth round of price increases by coking enterprises, have contributed to positive market sentiment [1] - The market has seen increased activity due to prior valuation adjustments and speculative demand driven by price rebounds [1] Future Considerations - Future attention should be paid to macroeconomic policies, molten iron production, coal mine resumption, and the increase in imported Mongolian coal supply [1] - The strategy for coking coal and coke is expected to be volatile, with no current operations in cross-commodity, spot, or options trading [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to show a range - bound oscillation with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Macro - policy expectations and fundamentals interact, and short - term Indonesian policy news has limited impact on the nickel market [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro sentiment dominates the marginal direction of steel prices, but the real - world fundamentals have poor elasticity. It is expected that the price will follow the macro sentiment and show a range - bound oscillation [5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry fundamentals still provide support, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production by upstream factories. The market may correct next week, but the improved fundamentals will support the downside [27][31]. - Polysilicon: It is in a policy - driven market, and there may be a short - term correction. The price is expected to be in the range of 45,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton next week [27][32]. - Lithium carbonate: There are large differences in the market's view on the impact of anti - involution policies on production, leading to wide - range price fluctuations. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [63][66]. - Palm oil: The macro sentiment has faded, and the fundamentals may experience a pull - back [86]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [87]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The nickel futures closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel futures closed at 13,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume of nickel futures was 165,710 lots, and that of stainless - steel futures was 200,473 lots [12]. - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the support from nickel ore is weakening, and the inventory of refined nickel is stable in the short - term. For stainless steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased [4][5]. - **Market News**: There are various policy - related and project - related news from Indonesia, such as potential changes in mining quota periods and project production suspensions [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Movements**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures closed at 51,025 yuan/ton. The spot prices of both also increased [27]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory decreased, and polysilicon's upstream inventory was reduced. The supply and demand of both have their own characteristics, such as the increase in industrial silicon production in some regions and the reduction in polysilicon downstream demand [28][29]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon should focus on the resumption of production by upstream factories, and polysilicon may correct in the short - term due to policy factors [31][32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate 2509 contract closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, and the 2511 contract closed at 79,160 yuan/ton. The spot price was 72,900 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply of lithium carbonate may be affected by anti - involution policies, and there are differences in the market's view on its impact. The demand from downstream is weak at high prices, and the inventory continues to increase [64][65]. - **Market Outlook**: There are large differences between bulls and bears, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [66]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 09 contract decreased by 0.31% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract decreased by 0.20% [87]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil's macro - driven rise may face a pull - back due to weak fundamentals, and soybean oil lacks strong driving forces and should pay attention to Sino - US negotiations [86][87].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the complexity of the internal and external environment of the capital market, while highlighting the certainty of high-quality economic development, macro policy expectations, and asset valuation recovery as foundations for maintaining a stable and healthy market operation [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to consolidate the market's recovery and positive trend by enhancing market monitoring, regulation, and risk response effectiveness [2] - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms to stimulate multi-level market vitality, including the implementation of reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and a comprehensive package of measures for the Growth Enterprise Market [2][3] Group 2 - The CSRC intends to promote the enhancement of investment value for listed companies and ensure the effective implementation of major asset restructuring management measures while preventing conflicts of interest and financial fraud [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for continuous improvement in regulatory services and the rectification of formalism and bureaucratism within the CSRC [3] - The CSRC is committed to strengthening the supervision and control of public power, addressing corruption issues, and enhancing the authority and influence of research on major capital market issues to better serve national strategies and regulatory needs [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows a complex trend, with various commodities and financial indices having different performances. The macro - economic environment has multiple influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes and market supply - demand relationships [7][8][11]. - For different sectors, such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option - finance, the market is expected to have different trends, including shocks, upward or downward movements, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions [11][14][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - **Macro Indicators**: On July 23, 2025, at 08:00, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 44502.44, up 0.405% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index was 20892.69, down 0.388%; the S&P 500 was 6309.62, up 0.064%; the Hang Seng Index was 25130.03, up 0.544%. The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587%; the US dollar index was 97.48, up 0.129%; the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - **External Futures Contracts**: COMEX gold was 3444.00, up 0.988%; COMEX silver was 39.66, up 1.070%; LME copper was 9898.00, up 0.314%; LME aluminum was 2652.00, up 0.417%; LME zinc was 2853.50, up 0.316%; LME lead was 2014.50, down 0.025%; LME tin was 33920.00, up 0.728%; LME nickel was 15530.00, up 0.129%; ICE 11 - sugar was 16.26, down 0.611%; ICE 2 - cotton was 68.26, up 0.250%; CBOT soybeans was 1026.00, down 0.073%; CBOT soybean meal was 286.90, up 0.702%; CBOT soybean oil was 55.48, down 0.573%; CBOT corn was 417.50, down 1.183%; NYMEX crude oil was 65.45, down 0.502%; ICE Brent crude was 68.67, down 0.608% [2]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts - Metals**: Gold was 792.94, up 1.032%; silver was 9453.00, up 0.639%; copper was 79970.00, up 0.288%; zinc was 22970.00, up 0.109%; aluminum was 20925.00, up 0.120%; tin was 269320.00, up 0.298%; lead was 16945.00, up 0.089%; nickel was 123730.00, up 0.008%; iron ore was 818.50, down 0.547%; alumina was 3487.00, down 0.740%; rebar was 3302.00, down 0.151%; stainless steel was 12975.00, up 0.348%; hot - rolled coil was 3464.00, down 0.374% [2]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts - Chemicals**: Coking coal was 1135.50, up 8.298%; coke was 1731.50, up 2.003%; natural rubber was 15075.00, up 0.10%; 20 - rubber was 12900.00, up 0.350%; plastic was 7346.00, down 0.299%; polypropylene PP was 7147.00, down 0.293%; PTA was 4802.00, up 0.167%; asphalt was 3613.00, up 0.111%; methanol was 2449.00, down 0.326%; ethylene glycol was 4460.00, up 0.292%; styrene was 7452.00, down 0.388%; glass was 1237.00, down 0.961%; crude oil was 503.80, down 0.099%; fuel oil was 2873.00, down 1.744%; soda ash was 1380.00, up 0.364%; pulp was 5468.00, up 1.863%; caustic soda was 2645.00, down 0.489%; PX was 6878.00, down 0.116%; LPG was 3984.00, up 0.378% [5]. - **Domestic Futures Contracts - Agricultural Products**: Yellow soybean No.1 was 4241.00, up 0.213%; yellow soybean No.2 was 3730.00, up 0.188%; soybean meal was 3092.00, up 0.194%; rapeseed meal was 2738.00, up 0.073%; soybean oil was 8072.00, down 0.050%; rapeseed oil was 9450.00, down 0.285%; palm oil was 8954.00, up 0.314%; white sugar was 5819.00, down 0.069%; yellow corn was 2303.00, down 0.818%; corn starch was 2660.00, down 0.30%; No.1 cotton was 14235.00, up 0.070%; cotton yarn was 20450.00, up 0.098% [5]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and personal housing loan balance was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [7]. - The US reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, with tariff adjustments and market - opening measures [7]. - The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways [7]. - The US - China new - round negotiation may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran, and China hopes to promote the stable and healthy development of bilateral relations through dialogue [8]. - China is dissatisfied with the WTO's arbitration ruling in the China - EU trade dispute and will handle it properly according to WTO rules [8]. - In the first half of the year, non - bank sector cross - border capital inflows were 127.3 billion US dollars, and foreign investors net - increased holdings of domestic stocks and funds by 10.1 billion US dollars, reversing the net - reduction trend of the past two years [8]. - Central enterprises are required to actively participate in urban development and new - quality productivity construction [8]. - More than 66 million consumers bought over 109 million home appliances through trade - in programs, and over 69 million consumers bought over 74 million digital products this year [9]. - In the first half of the year, China's shipbuilding completion, new orders, and order backlog ranked first globally [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties - **Agricultural Products**: Peanut market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with prices expected to be weakly volatile; the oil market is expected to be volatile, with increased exports of soybeans and palm oil; sugar futures are affected by supply - demand factors, with prices in a key range; corn is in a game between policy support and weak demand, with suggestions to go long lightly; the pig market is oversupplied, with prices adjusting; the egg market has rising prices due to reduced production and increased demand [11][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Caustic soda has strong cost support and rising market sentiment, with attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; urea prices are expected to be strongly volatile, with attention to export quotas and autumn fertilizer procurement; copper prices are expected to be sorted in a high - level range, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile at high levels; alumina prices are expected to continue to be strong; steel prices are expected to be firm in the short term; ferroalloys may continue to rise with policy expectations; double - coking coal prices are strongly trending; lithium carbonate prices are driven by policies and rising ore prices, with suggestions to go long at low levels but beware of selling pressure [14][16][17]. - **Option - finance**: The A - share market maintains a slow - bull trend, with the market style possibly switching; in the short term, the operation is optimistic, with attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC; in the option market, trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to go long on volatility [17][18][19].