Core Viewpoint - After reaching new highs, precious metal prices experienced a significant decline on October 22, 2025, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply from their recent peaks, indicating a potential market correction after a strong bullish trend [1][11]. Price Movements - As of October 22, 2025, the spot price of gold was 945.46 CNY per gram, reflecting an 8.41% increase from the beginning of the month (872.11 CNY per gram on October 1) but a 4.13% decrease from the previous day (986.21 CNY per gram on October 21) [3]. - The average price of silver on October 22, 2025, was 11,299.67 CNY per kilogram, up 3.76% from the start of the month (10,890.33 CNY per kilogram on October 1) but down 4.39% from the previous day (11,891 CNY per kilogram on October 21) [5]. Price Trends - Over the past year, both gold and silver exhibited a strong upward trend, with gold prices increasing by over 56.53% and silver by over 40.34%, indicating a robust bull market for precious metals [8]. - The initial phase (October 2024 - April 2025) saw both metals experiencing a steady rise, driven by global economic uncertainty and changing monetary policy expectations [9]. - The mid-phase (April 2025 - August 2025) featured gold stabilizing in a high range while silver began to catch up, supported by industrial demand [9]. - The latter phase (August 2025 - October 2025) saw both metals accelerating in price, influenced by geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary easing [9]. Market Drivers - Key macroeconomic factors driving precious metal prices include global economic uncertainty, inflation levels, and the monetary policy direction of major central banks [10]. - Geopolitical tensions and financial market volatility have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [10]. - Industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and electronics, has provided additional support for its price [10]. Recent Decline Factors - The significant drop in precious metal prices on October 22, 2025, was attributed to several factors: - Profit-taking and technical corrections following a period of rapid price increases, with gold experiencing its largest single-day drop since April 2013 [11]. - Easing geopolitical tensions, such as the ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict, which reduced market risk aversion [12]. - A liquidity crisis in the financial system leading to forced selling of liquid assets, including gold [13]. - Fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index, with prior expectations of interest rate cuts already priced in, resulting in reduced buying interest in precious metals [13]. - Changes in market sentiment and holding structures, with a shift from optimism to caution leading to a concentrated liquidation of long positions [13].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market is facing continuous inventory accumulation pressure. Although the supply has decreased due to an increase in maintenance devices, the support from compound fertilizer and other industrial demands has weakened. After a short - term improvement in production and sales, there are still pressures. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 1550 - 1650 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price fluctuated sideways, rebounding after hitting a new low. On October 17, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1541 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.72% [5][8]. - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On October 17, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 83) - (- 59) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 70) - (- 68) yuan/ton [5][10]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 80.23%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week, and the daily average urea output was 18.86 tons. Next week, maintenance devices in Anhui, Shaanxi and other places will gradually resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply will still be relatively sufficient [5][12]. - **Cost**: The demand - side support for anthracite lump coal was weaker, and the pit - mouth lump coal of coal enterprises in some areas was under significant pressure, with coal prices falling. As of October 16, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the price center dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the closing price on September 30 [5][16]. - **Demand**: - Agricultural demand: Nationwide autumn harvest and sowing have begun. Winter wheat has been sown and emerged in most parts of Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. In Gansu, nearly 80% of winter wheat has been sown, and in Shaanxi, over 10%. Rape has been sown in Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. In Chongqing, over 40% of rape has been sown, and in Hubei, over 30%. The average pre - sales of major urea production enterprises was 3.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and production and sales improved marginally [5][18][21]. - Industrial demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.91 tons, a decrease of 2.59 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved, entering a destocking trend [5][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 142.1 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 74 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6294, totaling 12.588 tons [5][28].

Core Insights - Silver prices have recently surged, with spot silver reaching a record high of $51.22 per ounce on October 9, indicating a shift in the precious metals market dynamics [1] - The increase in silver prices is driven by both industrial demand and investment attributes, with a year-to-date increase of over 70% [1][2] - The global silver supply has faced a deficit for five consecutive years, leading to a significant decline in inventory and increased spot premiums [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The strong performance of silver is attributed to its dual role as an industrial metal and a store of value, influenced by the ongoing energy transition and rising demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks have enhanced silver's appeal as a monetary and safe-haven asset [1][2] - The price of silver has outperformed gold this year, with a 70% increase compared to gold's 50% rise, reflecting silver's stronger industrial characteristics [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The recent tightness in the silver market is evidenced by rising leasing rates and abnormal premiums in the London market, indicating a potential short squeeze [2] - The gold-silver ratio is currently around 82 in the domestic market and 85 internationally, significantly above historical averages, suggesting that silver is relatively undervalued [2] - The ongoing bullish trend in precious metals is driven by concerns over the sustainability of the dollar system and geopolitical uncertainties, increasing the demand for safe-haven assets [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the core issue in the silver market is the declining inventory against the backdrop of a bullish precious metals market, presenting increasing investment opportunities [3] - Short-term supply constraints may lead to further price increases, necessitating close monitoring of the spot-futures price spread, leasing rates, and delivery volumes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices indicate a market correction after significant gains, with investors taking profits amid easing geopolitical risks and technical overbought conditions [1][4][7]. Price Movements - COMEX December gold futures reached nearly $4,078, while spot gold approached $4,058 before declining to below $3,958, marking a drop of approximately 2.8% for futures and 2.4% for spot [1]. - COMEX December silver futures peaked at $49.965, close to the 1980 record, but fell to $46.89, a decline of 4.3% [4]. Market Sentiment - Analysts attribute the price drop to profit-taking after a period of significant price increases, with geopolitical tensions easing following a preliminary ceasefire agreement in Gaza [7]. - The market is showing signs of caution due to extreme overbought conditions in both gold and silver, as indicated by rising volatility indices [8][9]. Technical Indicators - Gold and silver are in extreme overbought territory, with the Cboe Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) reaching recent highs, suggesting a potential pause or correction in prices [8][10]. - The monthly RSI for gold is at historically high levels, indicating a potential for price adjustments [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver prices have surged over 67% this year, the largest increase since 1979, driven by supply constraints and strong industrial demand [14][17]. - The London silver market is experiencing tight supply, with rising borrowing costs for silver indicating a significant demand-supply imbalance [17]. Future Outlook - HSBC forecasts silver prices could peak at $53 per ounce this year and $55 next year, with potential corrections anticipated in the latter half of next year [19]. - Continued strong demand from industrial applications and potential dollar depreciation could further support silver prices [18][19].

Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a short-term spike due to geopolitical tensions, particularly Trump's ultimatum to Hamas, raising concerns about Middle Eastern oil supply disruptions [3] - Despite the spike, oil prices actually fell by 7.4% over the week, as market participants remain cautious about OPEC+'s upcoming discussions on production levels and the impact of U.S. government activities on Iraqi oil exports [3] - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with short-term volatility driven by news but long-term trends dependent on OPEC+ decisions and supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices surged by 5.2% in a week, marking the largest weekly increase in a year, closing at $10,715 per ton, just under $400 from last year's historical high [4] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to supply chain issues and a weaker dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [4] - Other base metals also saw significant increases, with zinc rising by 5% and tin by 8.6%, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia [4] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks, currently standing above $3,885 per ounce, just $12 shy of the previous record high [5] - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding U.S. government operations and delayed economic data, leading investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - There are indications of overbought conditions in the gold market, suggesting potential for a price correction despite the current upward trend [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on the underlying "mainline logic" of commodity markets rather than short-term fluctuations, with oil influenced by supply-demand and geopolitical balance, copper by industrial demand and supply gaps, and gold by Federal Reserve policies and global uncertainties [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 29 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: This week, gold futures prices showed a strong - side oscillatory pattern of "rallying, pulling back, and then stabilizing again". Influenced by factors such as the market's expectation of further easing after the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical risks boosting safe - haven demand, and the resonance of increased global gold ETF holdings and strong domestic consumption demand. Although there was a short - term pullback due to the resilience of US economic data and profit - taking by long positions, the medium - and long - term supporting factors remained unchanged, and the price quickly recovered and reached a new phased high. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and rising geopolitical risks, combined with a surge in investment demand, provide multiple supports [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to mainly oscillate at a high level, with support at 805 - 812 and resistance at 838 - 845. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The gold contract 2512 faces pressure from profit - taking at high levels, with support at 845 - 850. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [11]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the main silver futures contract 2512 showed an oscillatory strengthening trend, with a weekly increase of 2.91%, and the closing price reached a record high since listing. It was mainly supported by the financial attribute premium under the strengthened Fed interest - rate cut expectation, the safe - haven demand driven by geopolitical risks, and the fundamental support formed by industrial demand (photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles) and the supply - demand gap. The capital side shows that long - position confidence is stable, with both open interest and trading volume increasing simultaneously. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm payroll data on interest - rate cut expectations, policy signals from Fed officials, and the position - holding risks brought by China's "National Day" holiday [32]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2512 was expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 9500 - 9800. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2512 is expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 10400 - 10500. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [36]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Group 1: Gold Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring - retracting - recovering" this week due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: This week, the gold futures price showed a "soaring - retracting - recovering" pattern due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. Next week, key factors include the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, inventory destocking rhythm, and global risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile and strong operation, with the lower support level at 795 - 814, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with the lower support level at 805 - 812 and the upper resistance level at 838 - 845. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [12]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Gold futures price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][23][25] Group 2: Silver Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" last week, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, there is a risk of a pullback after "positive realization". In the long - term, attention should be paid to the resonance of industrial demand and financial attributes, and silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" in the fourth quarter if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled [33]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [33]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Last week, the silver futures price showed a "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" pattern, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, if the Fed is cautious about the 2026 interest rate cut expectation or the US economic data is unexpectedly strong, silver may test the 9800 yuan/ton support level again. In the long - term, if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled in the fourth quarter, silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" [33]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [37]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Silver futures price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]

Group 1 - Silver prices have been on the rise since July, becoming a focal point in the global commodity market, with a significant increase of 18% in Q1 2025, reaching $34 per ounce [1] - As of July, silver prices peaked at over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with an annual increase exceeding 35%, outpacing gold's performance [1] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of safe-haven demand and industrial needs, with geopolitical risks and trade tensions driving investment towards silver as a "gold alternative" [1] Group 2 - Industrial demand is a major factor in the rising silver prices, with a projected increase of 4% in industrial demand for 2024, reaching 680.5 million ounces, driven by green economy applications [2] - Historically, silver has been recognized as a valuable element, used as currency since 700 BC, and has maintained its status as a store of value across various cultures [2] - Silver's intrinsic value remains significant, securing its place in diverse investment portfolios [2] Group 3 - Silver and gold, both precious metals, differ in their attributes; gold has stronger financial properties while silver has greater commodity attributes [3] - Gold's demand is primarily from physical consumption and financial investment, whereas silver's price is more influenced by industrial demand and supply factors [3] - Silver's market is more susceptible to volatility due to its smaller market size and liquidity compared to gold, leading to stronger speculative tendencies [3]

Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a perfect rotation with silver prices surging significantly, outperforming gold and platinum in recent months [1][2]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices have seen a dramatic increase, reaching over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with a year-to-date increase of 33%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1][2]. - As of July 15, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures price rose to 9,225 yuan per kilogram, with a year-to-date increase of 23.5% [2]. Group 2: Drivers of Silver's Rise - The surge in silver prices is attributed to industrial demand driven by the acceleration of global energy transition and geopolitical risks, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3][6]. - The global photovoltaic market is expected to see a significant increase in silver demand, with projections of over 600 GW of new installations by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Sources of Investment Flow - Recent inflows into the silver market are primarily from institutional investors and individual investors, with a notable increase in silver ETF holdings and speculative positions in futures markets [4]. - As of July 14, the largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 14,966.24 tons, marking a peak for the year [4]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - The World Silver Association forecasts that silver prices could reach $40 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by strong industrial demand and investment inflows [5][7]. - Analysts predict that silver's price will continue to rise due to supply constraints and robust industrial demand, particularly from green technologies [6][7]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Trends - The silver market is currently experiencing a structural deficit, with industrial demand expected to remain strong, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and solar energy [7][8]. - Despite some cautious outlooks regarding short-term price movements, there is an expectation that silver will outperform gold in the long run as economic growth accelerates [9].