Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned as a cost-effective leader in the mass-market Chinese dining sector, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 20, 2024, raising HKD 790 million by issuing 101 million shares at an offer price of HKD 8.5. As of 2024, the company operates 667 stores, with revenue projected at CNY 5.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and a net profit of CNY 580 million, up 9.1% year-on-year [1]. Industry Trends - The company aligns with two major trends in the Chinese dining industry: 1) the trend towards cost-effective consumption and 2) the standardization trend, positioning itself as a potential leader in standardized cost-effective Chinese cuisine. The mass-market Chinese dining industry is estimated to be around CNY 4 trillion, with a projected CAGR of 8.9% from 2023 to 2028. The chain restaurant penetration rate in China is expected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 23% in 2024, reflecting the industry's standardization [1]. Competitive Advantages - The company's core competitiveness stems from its positioning in the CNY 50-100 price range, appealing to mainstream tastes, and its high standardization in operations. The company has achieved a store-level operating profit margin of 19.7% in 2023. The average investment payback period from 2021 to August 2024 is 13.8 months, shorter than the industry average of 18 months [2]. - The company has established a large logistics supply chain system, including a central kitchen and 14 warehouses, integrating procurement, processing, storage, and distribution. This is supported by a self-owned transportation fleet [2]. - The company employs a robust team incentive mechanism, including equity incentives, salary incentives, and growth incentives, to motivate employees [2]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to experience same-store sales recovery and is entering a rapid store expansion phase over the next three years. After facing pressure from previous price reductions, same-store growth has returned to positive territory as of May, with pricing base disturbances expected to diminish in the second half of the year. Projected new store openings for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 130, 160, and 175, respectively, with a theoretical maximum of 1,810 stores under neutral assumptions and up to 4,308 stores under optimistic assumptions [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 6.26 billion, CNY 7.68 billion, and CNY 9.29 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 20.14%, 22.66%, and 20.95%, respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same years are CNY 720 million, CNY 910 million, and CNY 1.1 billion, with year-on-year growth of 24.3%, 26.4%, and 21.1%. Corresponding EPS figures are projected at CNY 0.61, CNY 0.78, and CNY 0.94, with PE ratios of 16.29, 12.89, and 10.65, respectively. A target price of HKD 18.07 is set for 2026, based on a 20X PE, translating to a market value of CNY 183 billion and HKD 201 billion [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is showing strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a three-year high, driven by sectors such as hardware, non-ferrous metals, media entertainment, and defense [1][2]. Economic Data Recovery - The manufacturing PMI has shown continuous improvement, indicating a recovery in economic data, with the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Although July's PPI data showed a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the main contributors were energy and construction materials, with expectations for a significant recovery starting in September [3]. Policy Incentives - Recent fiscal policies include a 1% annual subsidy on personal consumption loans, aimed at stimulating demand for major consumer goods [4]. - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to lead to a moderate price recovery, enhancing product innovation and reducing reliance on local subsidies [4]. - Supportive policies for the robotics industry are being implemented, with various subsidies expected to accelerate the development of intelligent robotics [4]. Market Sentiment - The recent announcement of a 90-day suspension of tariff increases by the US and China has alleviated market concerns, contributing positively to market sentiment [5]. Investment Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by leveraged funds and abundant liquidity, with optimism for the second half of the year and beyond [6]. - Three main investment themes are identified: new productive forces, overseas expansion, and cost-effective consumption [6][7]. - New productive forces are seen as the core engine for future economic growth, particularly in AI and robotics [6]. - Overseas expansion is supported by China's manufacturing advantages, despite global challenges [6]. - Cost-effective consumption is anticipated to shift consumer preferences towards value-driven purchases as income expectations improve [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is positioned as a high-cost-performance leader in the mass-market Chinese dining sector, with a robust growth trajectory and a focus on standardization and cost efficiency [1][2] - The mass-market Chinese dining industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% from 2023 to 2028, with the company expected to capitalize on this trend through its expansion strategy [1][12] - The company has established a strong supply chain and operational standardization, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [2][46] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company went public on December 20, 2024, raising HKD 790 million by issuing 101 million shares at an IPO price of HKD 8.5 [1] - As of 2024, the company operates 667 stores, with revenue of CNY 5.21 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.5%, and a net profit of CNY 581 million, up 9.1% [1][22] Industry Trends - The mass-market Chinese dining sector is valued at approximately CNY 40 trillion, with a significant shift towards cost-effective dining options [12][15] - The chain restaurant penetration rate in China is expected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 23% in 2024, indicating a trend towards standardization in the industry [1][15] Competitive Advantages - The company targets the CNY 50-100 price range, aligning with consumer preferences for value dining, and has a strong operational model that allows for rapid store expansion [2][36] - The average investment payback period for new stores is 13.8 months, shorter than the industry average of 18 months, indicating strong growth potential [2][49] - The company has built a comprehensive supply chain system, including a central kitchen and 14 warehouses, enhancing its operational efficiency [2][46] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to open 130, 160, and 175 new stores in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a theoretical maximum of 1,810 stores under neutral assumptions and 4,308 under optimistic scenarios [2][3] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 62.6 billion, CNY 76.8 billion, and CNY 92.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 7.2 billion, CNY 9.1 billion, and CNY 11 billion [3][6] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of CNY 0.61, CNY 0.78, and CNY 0.94 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a target price of HKD 18.07 based on a 20X PE for 2026 [3][6]

Group 1 - Southern Fund announced an investment of at least 230 million yuan in its equity funds, demonstrating confidence in the long-term stability of China's capital market [1] - Public fund institutions have been actively engaging in self-purchase behaviors, with a significant focus on equity products [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's action plan aims to incentivize public fund institutions to increase equity investments, enhancing the stability of capital market funding [1] Group 2 - Several fund companies, including ICBC Credit Suisse and Taikang Fund, have announced self-purchase plans, indicating a collective effort to boost market confidence [2] - Fund managers emphasize that self-purchases signal a commitment to risk-sharing with investors and a long-term positive outlook on the Chinese capital market [2] - The proactive self-purchase actions by fund companies reflect a response to the regulatory push for increased equity fund participation [3] Group 3 - The recent self-purchases by public fund institutions are seen as a positive signal for value recognition, confidence boosting, and aligning interests with investors [3] - The strong resilience of the Chinese economy, with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, supports the long-term positive outlook for the capital market [4] - Current valuations in the Chinese stock market are considered attractive for long-term investors, presenting a good opportunity for investment [4]

8月7日周四，港股三大指数上午探底回升，恒生指数午间收涨0.52%，重回25000点上方，国企指数、 恒生科技指数分别上涨0.36%及0.54%。今日，港股多数飘红，港股消费ETF（513230）现小幅微涨。持 仓股中，金沙中国有限公司领涨超5%，名创优品、周大福、银河娱乐、华润啤酒、老铺黄金等均涨超 3%。 国泰海通证券认为，6月中旬以来港股新消费震荡休整，处在热度消化的阶段。这背后原因主要是上半 年港股新消费板块大幅上涨，6月下旬时从交易和估值等维度看热度较高，部分投资者对新消费板块行 情持续性的担忧逐渐显现，此后逐渐步入消化热度的休整阶段。尽管当前港股新消费部分领域短期略显 过热，但居民消费更加注重个性化和理性化的宏观趋势并未改变，预计悦己和性价比相关消费或延续增 长趋势，如潮玩、美护、宠物等。 港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，既包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团等新消费龙头，又包含小米、阿里 巴巴、腾讯、美团等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Upmood Holdings (02145) shares rose over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, following a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating strong revenue and profit growth driven by strategic brand and channel optimization [1][1][1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Upmood Holdings expects revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1][1] - The net profit is projected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][1] Strategic Insights - The revenue and profit increase is attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, benefiting from a multi-channel and multi-category approach, as well as substantial growth from the new growth curve, Newpage [1][1] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and precisely positioning new brands [1][1] - CICC highlighted that the profit forecast exceeded expectations due to improved profit margins driven by channel and brand structure optimization [1][1] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Upmood Holdings' stock price increased by 5.3%, with a trading volume of 41.4813 million HKD [1][1] - CICC has maintained an outperform rating for the company and raised the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has seen its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a historical high of 93 HKD, driven by positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025 [1] - The company anticipates revenue between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3% [1] - Net profit is expected to be between 540 million to 560 million RMB, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [1] Group 2 - The revenue and profit growth are attributed to the main brand, Han Shu, which has benefited from a multi-channel and multi-category strategy, as well as a substantial increase in revenue from the new growth line, Newpage [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the company's strategic implementation is yielding results, focusing on core sectors, upgrading channel structures, diversifying product categories, and positioning new brands accurately [1] - CICC notes that the company's profit forecast for the first half of the year exceeds expectations, primarily due to the optimization of channel and brand structures, which has led to an unexpected increase in profit margins [1] Group 3 - The company is benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and the trend towards cost-effective consumption, while also opening up new growth opportunities in mid-to-high-end and niche markets [1] - CICC maintains an outperform rating for the company and raises the target price by 15% to 98 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, with several companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, contributing to the overall bullish trend in this segment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart (09992.HK) rose by 7.87%, while Shangmei Co. (02145.HK) increased by 7.34%, and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) saw a rise of 5.93% [1][2]. - The New Consumption Concept Index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 64.97%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which has risen by 24.18% [3]. Group 2: Earnings Forecasts - Shangmei Co. expects revenue for the first half of 2025 to be between 4.09 billion to 4.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, with net profit projected to reach 540 million to 560 million yuan, an increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [3]. - Laopu Gold anticipates revenue of 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 241% to 255%, with net profit expected to be between 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, a growth of 279% to 288% [4]. - Pop Mart forecasts a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Sentiment - Investment firms are optimistic about the new consumption sector, noting a shift towards personalized and service-oriented consumption among residents [6]. - The Hong Kong consumption sector is seen as more aligned with current new consumption trends compared to the A-share market, indicating significant growth potential [6]. - Despite the current high valuations in the new consumption sector, the macro trend towards personalized and rational consumption remains intact, suggesting continued growth in related areas such as trendy toys, beauty care, and pet products [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit both increasing. The estimated revenue for H1 2025 is approximately 4.09 to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, while net profit is expected to be between 540 to 560 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [8]. - The main brand, Han Shu, solidified its foundation with significant growth driven by category and channel adjustments. In July, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin increased by 58%, benefiting from a shift towards self-operated sales channels [8]. - New product launches and high-end breakthroughs are opening new growth avenues. The New Page brand in the maternal and infant sector saw a GMV increase of 187% from January to July, while the hair care segment is also gaining traction [8]. - The company's strategy of multi-brand collaboration and channel optimization is yielding long-term advantages, focusing on core sectors and expanding product categories [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4,191 million RMB - 2024: 6,793 million RMB - 2025E: 8,513 million RMB - 2026E: 10,466 million RMB - 2027E: 12,664 million RMB - The corresponding net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 461 million RMB - 2024: 781 million RMB - 2025E: 1,061 million RMB - 2026E: 1,364 million RMB - 2027E: 1,654 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 36% for 2025, 29% for 2026, and 21% for 2027 [7][9].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the transformation of the consumer industry driven by AI technology, highlighting opportunities in smart glasses, AI e-commerce, AI education, and AI personal services starting from 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Integration in Consumer Sector**: - AI will significantly impact the consumer industry, with smart glasses and AI-enhanced services expected to emerge as key areas of growth [2][5]. - Meta has successfully launched commercial smart glasses, prompting domestic companies like Xiaomi and ByteDance to follow suit, indicating a strong market potential for smart glasses [4][5]. 2. **Emotional Value Consumption**: - This includes IP content, addictive consumption (e.g., coffee, tea, new tobacco products), and self-indulgent consumption (e.g., gold jewelry, health and fitness) [1][6]. - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing emotional needs and personal preferences after basic needs are met, benefiting from the IP economy driven by a second baby boom and rising national confidence [1][6][16]. 3. **Cost-Performance Consumption**: - Expected to become a primary investment focus, with growth potential in discount retail stores (e.g., snack shops), functional brands, and second-hand trading platforms [1][6][9]. - Historical data from the US and Europe suggests that regardless of economic conditions, once material needs are satisfied, a shift to cost-performance consumption occurs [18]. 4. **Service Consumption Trends**: - Anticipated to see continued growth in both volume and price, potentially addressing employment issues and becoming a focus of policy support [1][6][23]. - The US service consumption share has reached 70%, while China remains predominantly goods-focused [23]. 5. **AI in E-commerce**: - AI e-commerce is enhancing cross-border trade efficiency through AI customer service and video editing translation, although profitability remains to be observed [3][7][10]. - AI tools have enabled international trade businesses to achieve 24/7 multilingual communication, significantly increasing transaction volumes [7]. 6. **AI Education**: - AI education can overcome traditional educational challenges, such as scalability, equity, and personalization [3][11]. - Companies like Tianli International Holdings have successfully launched AI education products, demonstrating positive outcomes [11]. Additional Important Insights - **Standardization in Service Industry**: - Standardization is crucial for scaling service consumption, with companies like Haidilao and Huazhu Group improving service quality through standardized practices [1][25]. - The online transition is seen as the best way to address marginal cost issues and achieve scale in the service sector [26][27]. - **Retail Channel Evolution**: - Japan's retail landscape has shifted towards high-cost performance channels, with discount stores rapidly growing and traditional pricing structures being disrupted [19][20]. - Retailers targeting low-income groups often report better profitability compared to those focused on the middle class [21]. - **Future of Service Consumption in China**: - With rising disposable income, service consumption in China is expected to grow, moving towards a balance of volume and price increases [23]. - The capital market has historically overlooked the service sector due to challenges in standardization and marginal cost issues, but successful companies can achieve significant growth once these challenges are addressed [24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the evolving consumer landscape influenced by AI technology and changing consumer preferences.