Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for Q1 2025, with revenue slightly declining but significant growth in net profit, indicating a potential turning point in profitability driven by improved margins and successful product sales in the plant extraction segment [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.716 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 109 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 183.69% [1]. - The adjusted net profit was 96 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97.83% [1]. Business Segment Performance - The plant extraction business saw multiple products achieving historical sales highs, contributing 867 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 13.78%, with a gross profit margin improvement of 2.15 percentage points [1][3]. - The cottonseed business rebounded, generating 760 million yuan in revenue, although this represented a year-on-year decline of 9.49%, but with a significant improvement in gross profit [1][2]. Specific Product Insights - Chili red sales increased by approximately 7% due to a rise in volume despite price adjustments [2]. - Chili extract revenue grew by about 24%, driven by a more than doubling of sales volume [2]. - Lutein sales increased by 50% in the food-grade segment, despite overall market oversupply [2]. - Stevia glycosides saw a revenue increase of approximately 55%, surpassing 80 million yuan, supported by innovative cost advantages [2]. Margin and Cost Management - The company's gross margin improved to 14.16%, and net margin reached 6.38%, with respective year-on-year increases of 5.95 and 4.15 percentage points [3]. - The company maintained strict cost management, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios showing mixed trends, indicating a focus on efficiency [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its cost advantages in the plant extraction business and the recovery in the cottonseed market, projecting net profits of 365 million, 457 million, and 564 million yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 288.51%, 25.18%, and 23.21% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2024, with revenue projected at 9.523 billion yuan (up 37.65% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.465 billion yuan (up 282.63 year-on-year) [6] - The growth is driven by industry inventory digestion, the elimination of outdated production capacity, and a 100% capacity utilization rate, alongside a recovery in glove prices [6] - The company has a strong cost and capacity advantage, with a global expansion strategy that mitigates geopolitical risks [6] - The disposable glove market is expected to grow, with global sales projected to reach 82.93 billion units and revenue of 13.6 billion USD in 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 9.523 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.6% [9] - Net profit for 2024 is projected at 1.465 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 282.6% [9] - The gross margin for personal protective equipment is 24.24%, an increase of 10.96 percentage points [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.0 [6][9] Production Capacity and Technology - The company's total production capacity for disposable gloves is expected to reach 87 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.33% [8] - The company operates six production bases in China, with advanced production technology and automation ensuring high efficiency and low energy consumption [8]

Core Insights - In the first quarter, China's shipbuilding exports reached $10.13 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, indicating steady growth in the industry [1] Cost Advantages - China's shipbuilding industry has a significant cost advantage, with new ship prices in the U.S. being up to six times higher than those in China. For example, a MR-type product oil tanker was priced at $125 million in the U.S. compared to $36.5 million in China in 2014 [2] - The cost structure of ships shows that raw materials account for 25%-35%, labor costs for 20%-30%, design management for 5%, and supporting costs for 40%-50% of the total ship cost. China's shipbuilding supply chain has reduced reliance on foreign suppliers, effectively lowering construction costs [3] Efficiency Improvements - Chinese shipyards have significantly improved construction efficiency by optimizing production processes and adopting advanced technologies. For instance, Jiangnan Shipyard reduced the construction time for large container ships from 28 months to 13 months [4] - The efficiency of segmented construction has improved from about 40 hours per ton in 2010 to 15 hours per ton, reaching an internationally leading level [4] High-Tech Shipbuilding Achievements - China has become the only country capable of building aircraft carriers, large LNG carriers, and large cruise ships simultaneously, showcasing its comprehensive shipbuilding capabilities. The fifth-generation 174,000 cubic meter LNG carrier has an 18% increase in cargo capacity and a 50% reduction in fuel consumption compared to the first generation [5] - As of the end of 2024, Chinese companies hold 77.4% of the hand-held orders for VLCCs and 91.6% for container ships over 17,000 TEU [5] Green Shipbuilding Leadership - In green shipbuilding, China leads globally, with a market share of 78.5% for new green ship orders in 2024, covering mainstream ship types [6] Industry Scale and Supporting System - China's shipbuilding capacity is approximately 23.25 million tons, 232 times that of the U.S., with over 75 large shipyards. In 2024, Chinese shipyards are expected to deliver 1,286 new ships, accounting for 54.6% of the global total [8] - The scale effect leads to decreasing marginal costs, allowing Chinese shipyards to offer more competitive products and services, enhancing their global market position [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][8] Core Views - The company reported strong growth in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 4.848 billion, 980 million, and 959 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 39.23%, 47.62%, and 53.55% [4][5] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 44.47% and 20.21%, showing improvements of 1.7 and 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company expects additional revenue contributions from new large-sized packaging products in 2025, while cost advantages from sugar procurement are anticipated to weaken in the latter quarters of the year [7] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 267.58 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 139.1 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 520 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.83 [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved sales revenue of 4.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75% [5] - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 20.485 billion, 25.336 billion, and 30.526 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with respective growth rates of 29.34%, 23.68%, and 20.49% [10][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.500 billion, 5.731 billion, and 7.024 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 35.28%, 27.33%, and 22.57% [10][11] Product and Channel Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages reached 3.901 billion, 570 million, and 375 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.71%, 261.46%, and 72.62% respectively [6] - The company’s distribution channels generated revenues of 4.283 billion, 457 million, 104 million, and 1 million yuan from distributors, key accounts, online, and other channels, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.13%, 62.83%, 54.18%, and a decline of 83.13% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][8] Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 4.848 billion, 980 million, and 959 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 39.23%, 47.62%, and 53.55% [4][5] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 44.47% and 20.21%, showing improvements of 1.7 and 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company expects continued revenue growth driven by new product launches and improved cost management, with projected revenues of 20.485 billion, 25.336 billion, and 30.526 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.34%, 23.68%, and 20.49% [7][10] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 267.58 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 139.1 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 520 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.83 [3][10] - The largest shareholder is Lin Muqin [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a sales cash collection of 4.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75% [5] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 were 3.870 billion yuan, an increase of 1.182 billion yuan year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages in Q1 2025 was 3.901 billion, 570 million, and 375 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.71%, 261.46%, and 72.62% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain stable expense ratios while investing in brand promotion and distribution channels [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.65, 11.02, and 13.51 yuan respectively [7][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 43.3%, 47.0%, and 47.8% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the company's resource endowment advantages, with dividends and share buybacks enhancing shareholder returns [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 420.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.9 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year [6] - The company’s net production exceeded annual targets, with proven reserves reaching a historical high of 727.1 million tons of oil equivalent, resulting in a reserve replacement ratio of 167% [6] - The company maintains a low cost advantage, with a cost of 28.52 USD per barrel of oil equivalent in 2024, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [6] - The operating cash flow increased by 5.32% year-on-year to 220.9 billion yuan, reflecting stable operations despite declining oil prices [6] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, with a planned dividend of 1.4 HKD per share in 2024 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 444.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 139.9 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 1.4% increase year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share are expected to be 2.94 yuan in 2025 [5] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 51.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.0% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 9 for 2025 and 2026, and 8 for 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6][41]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in net profit for 2024 due to falling coal prices and production, but anticipates a recovery in 2025 driven by increased aluminum production and stable costs [4][38]. - The company has a significant cost advantage in aluminum production, particularly in Xinjiang, which is expected to enhance profitability [38][41]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 5.91 billion, 6.48 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 7, 7, and 6 [41][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while net profit dropped to 4.307 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.07% [1][9]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 10.059 billion yuan, with a net profit of 768 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 57.38% [1][9]. 2. Production and Profitability Analysis - Coal production decreased by 6.01% to 6.739 million tons, while aluminum production increased by 7.28% to 1.6285 million tons in 2024 [2][18]. - The gross profit per ton of aluminum rose to 4,462 yuan, an increase of 509 yuan, while coal's gross profit per ton fell to 170 yuan, a decrease of 299 yuan [2][18]. 3. Future Operational Plans - The company plans to produce 1.7 million tons of aluminum, 7.2 million tons of coal, and 660,000 tons of carbon products in 2025 [2][41]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's low valuation and high earnings elasticity could catalyze stock price increases, with a strong emphasis on the cost advantages in aluminum production [4][41]. - The anticipated growth in net profit and the favorable PE ratios indicate a promising investment opportunity [41][42].

上 市 公 司 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 17 日 中国宏桥 (01378) ——全球一体化布局完备，业绩稳健的高股息标的 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 15.06 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8877.99 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.38/6.91 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,425.26 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 9,463.89 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0834 | 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 47% 97% 147% HSCEI 中国宏桥 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A02305230 ...