Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing under continuous policy regulation, with a clear focus on maintaining market stability, promoting transformation, and preventing risks. The government has set three core tasks: urban renewal, high-quality transformation, and inventory optimization [1][2][19]. Policy Implementation - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market," indicating that the market has entered a new phase of supply-demand balance since late 2024 [1][2]. - In the first half of 2025, local governments issued 362 market stabilization policies across 130 provinces and cities, maintaining a year-on-year stability in policy issuance [1][14]. - The government aims to enhance urban renewal actions, construct a new model for real estate development, and optimize policies for purchasing existing properties to strengthen market risk defenses [2][19]. Financial Support - A comprehensive financial policy package was introduced by the central bank and regulatory authorities, focusing on reducing costs, expanding demand, and stabilizing expectations. This includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [6][7]. - The reduction in interest rates for housing loans is expected to save homebuyers over 20 billion yuan annually, enhancing their purchasing power and supporting housing demand [7][8]. Land Supply and Inventory Management - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced a plan to utilize local government special bonds to support land reserves, with a proposed land acquisition scale exceeding 9,500 hectares, which is expected to alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market [10][20]. - The average theoretical construction area from the proposed land acquisition exceeds 1.9 million square meters, which could lead to a significant reduction in the new housing sales cycle [11][20]. Future Directions - The government plans to focus on four main areas in the second half of 2025: advancing special bond land acquisition, accelerating urban renewal, implementing precise financial policies, and speeding up supply-side reforms to support the new development model [19][21].

金十数据6月20日讯，中国建设报发文称，国家统计局近日公布了70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动 情况。数据显示，5月份，房地产市场运行总体平稳，70个大中城市房价同比降幅继续收窄，商品房库 存持续减少。数据也表明，当前房地产市场仍在调整过程中，市场信心还在修复，市场供求关系仍待改 善，促进房地产止跌回稳还需继续努力。今年以来，随着各项稳定房地产政策加快落实，房地产市场继 续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。从长远看，我国城镇化进程仍在推进中，房地产市场的空间还比较广阔， 有良好发展前景。我们应对房地产市场总体平稳健康发展有信心。随着中央有关财税、金融等政策的进 一步优化统筹，以及各地因城施策推动政策精准落地，房地产市场将进一步巩固稳定态势。 中国建设报：加力巩固房地产市场稳定态势 ...

金十数据整理：每日房地产行业动态汇总（2025-06-17） 1. 深圳南山筹集社会存量住房5000套。 2. 广州南沙首批房票发放，总额超5000万元。 3. 广州两宗住宅用地出让：成交额8.94亿元。 4. 杭州公积金个人账户可直付购房首付款。 5. 北京6月16日新房网签222套，二手房住宅成交609套。 6. 浙江省直公积金可直付首付款、房租。 7. 浙江衢州：推行多孩家庭改善性购房补贴，最高可申请补贴20万元。 8. 研究员：短期波动不会改变房地产市场稳定态势。 9. 温州推出购买二手住房提取住房公积金支付首付款政策。 10. 成都推出"房产超市"平台，首批近30家房企入驻。 11. 重庆优化住房公积金政策，提高灵活就业人员贷款额度及效率。 ...

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，今年以来，随着各项稳定房地产政策加快落实，我国房地产继续朝 着止跌回稳方向迈进。5月份，我国房地产市场总体平稳运行，但也应该看到，房地产市场仍在调整阶 段，市场信心仍在修复，市场供求关系仍在改善，促进房地产止跌回稳仍需继续努力。(新华财经) ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas in sample cities, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, which may help stimulate demand in the housing market [5]. - The analysis indicates that the new housing market may experience marginal improvements sooner than the second-hand housing market due to supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction areas has narrowed to -10% as of June 12, with a month-on-month comparison showing a relatively high level compared to the past five years [4][9]. - The report notes that the new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has turned negative, while second-tier cities show a significant decline of -10% [4]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction areas has also narrowed to -4%, with a notable increase in transaction activity in first-tier cities [4][14]. - The report indicates that the second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction areas in some sample cities turning positive [14]. Land Acquisition - The report states that from January to May 2025, the cumulative land transaction area has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [21][26]. - The land acquisition data indicates a trend of increasing average prices despite a decrease in transaction volumes, suggesting a tightening supply [21][29]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report highlights an increase in the unsold inventory and the time required to sell properties, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [31][34]. - The analysis suggests that the market is entering a phase of observation, with high-quality residential supply and narrowing differences between rental yields and mortgage rates being key variables to monitor [5][31]. Forward-Looking Indicators - The report discusses various forward-looking indicators, including a projected increase in liquidity and a potential rise in confidence in housing transactions across multiple cities [5][49]. - The report also notes that the confidence index for new and second-hand housing transactions has shown a marginal decline, indicating cautious sentiment among buyers [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas since June, with the decline rate expanding [1][9] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with indicators suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market, driven by policy adjustments and liquidity improvements [5][49] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 25%, which is an increase of 12 percentage points compared to May [4] - The decline in new housing transactions is particularly pronounced in second-tier cities, with a year-on-year drop of 28% [4][9] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - Second-hand housing transaction areas also experienced a year-on-year decline of 24%, with a similar expansion in the decline rate compared to May [4] - The report notes that the second-hand housing market is facing a more severe contraction than the new housing market [5] Land Acquisition - From January to May 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline of 7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [21] - The report indicates that the land acquisition market is experiencing a mixed trend, with some cities showing significant price increases despite declining transaction volumes [21][26] Market Indicators - The report mentions that the confidence index for new and second-hand housing transactions has shown a marginal decline, indicating a cautious outlook among buyers [5][51] - The overall market sentiment index for 50 cities has also shown a narrowing year-on-year increase, reflecting a more subdued market environment [5][52] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the new housing market may see marginal improvements before the second-hand market, driven by supply constraints and quality enhancements [5] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-quality residential supply and the narrowing gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates as key variables for future market performance [5]

由此可见，一线城市的新房价格并没有延续之前的上涨趋势，进入到4月份开始，一线城市的新房价格开始转为持平，而且这还是建立在重点城市，改善楼 盘供给增加的前提下。 二线城市的新房销售价格环比也是持平，与上月相同。也就是说，4月份12线城市的新房整体价格都没有出现上涨。 按理来说，随着好房子概念的加速落地，并且改善楼盘的供应量，也出现了明显增加，房价应该出现上升趋势才对。 但现在看来，涨势已经出现了放缓，这足以说明房地产市场的止跌回稳依旧不太稳固，预示着接下来还需要更多利好措施给予楼市支持。 三线城市新房销售环比下降0.2%，而之所以会出现价格持续下跌的情况，核心原因还是在于三线城市的库存量依旧较高，好房子的概念在三四线城市并没 有大城市那么强烈。 当然，从上述数据也不难看出，单单是新房市场，同样也出现了城市分化越来越严重的情况。 先来看看新房市场： 国家统计局公布的4月份70城房价数据显示，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.1%转为持平。 4月份的房价数据并不太理想，那么5月份究竟如何呢？ 看看新房市场情况： 5月份一线城市新建住宅价格环比上涨0.90%，二线城市环比上涨0.06%，三四线代表城市环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a weakening in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with a notable increase in the sales decline for the top 100 real estate companies in May [1][7] - New home transaction area shows a narrowing month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month and shows an expanding year-on-year decline [1][7] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both increased month-on-month, while showing a year-on-year decrease [1][7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of May 24 to May 30, new home transaction area increased by 6.4% month-on-month but decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a total of 276.7 million square meters transacted across 40 cities [19][24] - The transaction area for second-hand homes decreased by 10.9% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year, totaling 179.2 million square meters across 18 cities [47][54] - New home inventory in 12 cities reached 8,789 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [41][48] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transacted across 100 cities was 1,003.1 million square meters, down 34.7% month-on-month and 27.0% year-on-year, while the total land price increased by 53.6% month-on-month to 25.64 billion [61][66] - The average land price per square meter was 2,556.1 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 135.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.5% [61][66] 3. Policy Overview - Local policies have been introduced to stimulate housing consumption, including measures such as reducing down payment ratios and tax exemptions for housing transactions [3][98][99] - Specific initiatives include the implementation of a "trade-in" model for housing and the expansion of housing provident fund usage [3][99] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market [8]

房地产行业跟踪周报 新房成交面积环比改善，二手房成交同比持续 正增 增持（维持） 2025 年 06 月 03 日 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024/6/3 2024/10/2 2025/1/31 2025/6/1 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《LPR 下调 10 基点，持续推进城市更 新》 2025-05-26 《"三问物业行业"系列报告之三—— 不谋长远者，无以图当下》 2025-05-23 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 | 图 | 1： | 全国 | 36 城商品住宅成交面积及同环比 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 4 | 座一线城市新房成交面积及同环比（北京、上海、广州、深圳） 6 | | 图 | 3： | 5 | 座新一线城市新房成交面积及同环比（杭州、武汉、成都、青岛、苏州） 6 | | 图 | 4： | 6 | 座二线城市新房成交面积及同环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The average land acquisition price in 300 cities has seen an increase in year-on-year growth rate [1] - The new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have shown a narrowing decline in year-on-year comparisons as of May 30 [2][9] - The overall market sentiment index for 50 cities has shown a narrowing year-on-year increase [54] Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 256 stocks with a total market value of 2,669.6 billion and a circulating market value of 2,523.6 billion [7] Industry Index - The absolute performance over 1 month is 2.5%, while the 6-month performance is -7.4%, and the 12-month performance is 13.1% [8] New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transactions has narrowed, while the month-on-month figures are at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [9][12] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions has expanded, with month-on-month figures at a lower level compared to the past five years [15][17] Land Acquisition - From January to May, the cumulative transaction area for land in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [22][26] Inventory - The inventory and de-stocking cycles for unsold properties have shown a marginal increase compared to March [33][36] Forward-Looking Indicators - As of May, the liquidity outlook indicates a widening macro-level liquidity easing [51]