Group 1: General Information - Industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Contracts**: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the pre - settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3075, the highest price was 3083, the lowest price was 3065, the closing price was 3080, with a rise of 6 and a rise rate of 0.20%. The trading volume was 94,600, the open interest was 445,770, and the open interest change was - 22,460. The soybean meal 2605 contract had a pre - settlement price of 2766, an opening price of 2769, a highest price of 2789, a lowest price of 2765, a closing price of 2782, a rise of 16 and a rise rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 793,254, the open interest was 2,184,028, and the open interest change was 5,766. The soybean meal 2607 contract had a pre - settlement price of 2711, an opening price of 2710, a highest price of 2728, a lowest price of 2707, a closing price of 2726, a rise of 15 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 36,632, the open interest was 451,000, and the open interest change was 6,146 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts rebounded, with the main contract approaching 1075 cents. The previous rebound was due to the digestion of negative factors. Although the January USDA report raised the end - of - season inventory of US soybeans in the new season, the price was far below the planting cost, so the downside was limited. Also, the weekly export data of US soybeans was good for two consecutive weeks, and there were relatively positive expectations in the biodiesel policy. However, fundamentally, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent supply pressure would always put pressure on the market. If US soybean exports weakened or the weather in Argentina improved, the external market might fall below 1050 cents [6] Operation Suggestions - The domestic soybean meal 05 and subsequent contracts are priced according to the external cost. Since there is a lack of potential positive factors in CBOT, the overall situation is a range - bound oscillation, with a slightly bearish view on rebounds. The risk is that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans fails to meet expectations, it may drive the spot price to rise more than expected, which may have a slight driving effect on the 05 contract [6] Group 3: Industry News - **Brazil**: As of last Thursday, the harvesting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 4.9% of the planting area. The expected output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was raised to 181 million tons from the previous 180.4 million tons. If the weather is favorable later, the global supply of grains and oilseeds will be more abundant. The initial harvesting and planting progress are in line with the seasonal pattern, and the future market focus will shift to the confirmation of unit yield and changes in the weather in the producing areas [9] - **China's Purchase Progress**: As of January 27, the cumulative purchase of the January shipment was 4.704 million tons, with a purchase progress of 100%. The cumulative purchase of the February shipment was 8.858 million tons, with a purchase progress of 93.24%. The cumulative purchase of the March shipment was 11.588 million tons, with a weekly increase of 594,000 tons and a purchase progress of 96.57%. The cumulative purchase of the April shipment was 6.373 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.249 million tons and a purchase progress of 55.42%. The cumulative purchase of the May shipment was 3.141 million tons, with a weekly increase of 198,000 tons and a purchase progress of 27.31%. The cumulative purchase of the June shipment was 2.384 million tons, with a weekly increase of 330,000 tons and a purchase progress of 21.67%. The cumulative purchase of the July shipment was 726,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 132,000 tons and a purchase progress of 7.41%. The cumulative purchase of the August shipment was 198,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 66,000 tons and a purchase progress of 2.2% [9] - **Argentina**: Recently, the temperature in Argentina soared to nearly 40 degrees Celsius, and the main agricultural areas urgently need rainfall, but significant precipitation is not expected until February. Due to weather concerns, the estimated output of Argentine soybeans was lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons. The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans is 179 million tons, higher than the previous prediction of 178 million tons. However, it was emphasized that the Brazilian soybean crop still faces risks, and high - temperature and drought weather may affect the output [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures included are about the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural commodities: - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][7]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term, and the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with a mid - term strategy of buying on dips [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the mid - term [19]. - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, suggesting buying on dips [20]. - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [20]. - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [24]. - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural commodities. Overall, the market is influenced by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, international trade, and weather. There are opportunities for short - term trading and mid - to long - term investment strategies in different commodities, but also risks associated with market fluctuations [4][7][9][11][12][13][16][19][20][21][23][24][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Concerns over China - Canada trade relations led to a significant increase in rapeseed oil prices. Overall, the upward trend of vegetable oils was supported by rising crude oil prices and positive fundamental expectations [1][6]. - **Logic**: Rapeseed oil was affected by Trump's tariff remarks, raising concerns about future rapeseed supply. The 2025/26 Canadian rapeseed production was a record high, but exports were expected to decrease. For soybeans, the US biodiesel policy provided emotional support. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in January 2026, while exports increased, with favorable export expectations [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Suggest considering buying on dips for hedging and a long - palm oil, short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [4][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking led to an increase in the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market sentiment was positive for US soybeans due to potential Chinese purchases and the US biodiesel policy, but the Brazilian soybean harvest and increased supply expectations were negative factors. Domestically, oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, and the price of soybean meal was expected to be under pressure. The price of rapeseed meal was expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The market was influenced by both positive and negative factors and was expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Logic**: The supply was in a tight balance. The pre - holiday selling pressure was not large, and the feed enterprises' inventory could cover the Spring Festival. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory increased, but the demand was weak. The substitution of grains and policy grain auctions also affected the market [12]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The market was in a state with an upper limit and a lower limit [12]. 4. Hogs - **View**: The reduction in slaughter orders led to a decline in hog prices [13]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure was increasing due to slow - paced January slaughter and the entry of second - fattening pigs. In the medium - term, the supply would be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, the supply pressure was expected to ease after May 2026. The demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term. The industry was advised to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle was expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price faced significant pressure from previous highs [16]. - **Logic**: After being driven up by synthetic rubber, the price of natural rubber fluctuated sideways. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was not strong, with a fast inventory build - up. However, it was supported by the positive sentiment in the chemical sector [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables were limited, and it was difficult to break through the previous high. It was recommended to buy on dips in the mid - term, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate widely [16]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The operating logic remained unchanged, and the price was expected to be strong [19]. - **Logic**: The market was trading on the expectation of a tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also had a positive impact. The price of butadiene was rising due to limited supply and strong demand [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene was expected to improve, but there was short - term pressure. The mid - term trend was expected to be upward [19]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price fluctuated and adjusted, lacking new positive factors in the short - term [20]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection was almost finished. The import of cotton and cotton yarn increased, and the downstream stocking increased. The commercial inventory was accumulating, but the overall apparent consumption was good. In the long - term, the supply might be tight, but there was short - term resistance [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. It was recommended to buy on dips [20]. 8. Sugar - **View**: There was support at the bottom, but the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market was expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. All major producing countries were expected to increase production, putting pressure on sugar prices. The current valuation was relatively low, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. It was recommended to short on rebounds [20]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The price of hardwood pulp continued to decline, and the pulp fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp decreased as the downstream production declined. The demand feedback was more significant for hardwood pulp. The main positive factor was the rising US dollar price of pulp, while there were more negative factors such as seasonal demand weakness and abundant supply [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. 10. Offset Paper - **View**: There was no positive driving force, and the price was expected to be weak [24]. - **Logic**: The supply was abundant, and the high pulp cost squeezed profits. The market demand was weak, and the price increase was difficult to pass on. The industry's production might decrease, and the trading volume was expected to weaken [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The spot price was expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range [24]. 11. Logs - **View**: The spot price in Lanshan increased, and the price was expected to be strong within a range [25]. - **Logic**: The log market first declined and then rebounded. The next - period overseas quotation was expected to increase. The delivery pressure decreased, and the spot supply in Jiangsu was tight. The price was expected to be strong in the short - term [25]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate within a range. The negative factors were digested, and the spot price increase might boost market sentiment [25]. 12. Commodity Index - **On January 26, 2026**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the 20 - commodity index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), and agricultural product index all showed increases. The agricultural product index had a daily increase of 0.54%, a 5 - day increase of 1.27%, a 1 - month increase of 2.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [189][190].

棕榈油具有明显的季节性属性，通常在 3 月至 10 月是东南亚棕榈油的增产周 期，而在 11 月至次年 2 月则是减产周期。今年（2026 年），马来西亚和印度 尼西亚的棕榈油产量均超预期增长。印度尼西亚在 6 至 8 月期间，单月产量超 过 500 万吨，而马来西亚则持续增产至 10 月和 11 月，12 月份环比减产约 4%。这种超预期增长导致前期供应充足，但需求启动较晚，马来西亚库存累积 至 12 月份达到 305 万吨，为历史同期最高水平。然而，印尼库存相对较低， 仅 200 多万吨，并预计到 1 月份出口将超过 330 万吨，使其库存可能降至 200 万吨以下。两国合计库存约 400 多万至 500 万吨，相对历史同期为中性 水平。 棕榈油需求情况如何？ 今年（2026 年），印尼已确定实施 B40 生物柴油计划，但 B50 计划大概率上 半年无法实行，因为道路测试需到 6 月份才结束。需求增量主要来自于抢占豆 油市场。去年（2025 年）美豆油价格便宜，大量出口，今年（2026 年）美豆 油价格竞争力下降，预计出口减少五六十万吨。同时，由于阿根廷去年实施零 关税政策，大量出口大豆及其制品，今年压榨 ...

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 棕榈油期货：震荡偏强，重心继续上移 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：2026年1月19—25日棕榈油期现"震荡走强、内外联动"，国内主力P2605周涨 2.72%收8910元/吨，马棕油主连涨2.53%收4174林吉特/吨，国内现货随期货同步走高，核心驱动是马棕季节 性减产、节前备货与油脂板块轮动，高库存与政策扰动制约涨幅。 主产国数据：供应端马棕油季节性减产，1月1—20日产量环比减少 16.06%，出口持续改善，产需情况 持续改善；需求端国内节前备货与油脂板块轮动带动采购回升，但高库存与豆棕价差倒挂抑制需求承接力。 政策与消息：印尼取消B50生物柴油计划，2026年延续B40计划，短期利空生物燃料需求，但长期政 策稳定利好市场预期；美国生物柴油政策即将发布，利多预期提振植物油需求。 展望：印尼供应风险和美国生柴预期两大核心故事未被证伪前，棕榈油期价的强势基础仍在。短期棕 榈油易涨难跌，操作上短多持有。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化。 2、本周基本 ...

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from Guangfa Futures and cover various industries including oils, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 26, 2026 [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For soybean oil, the speculation of favorable US biodiesel policy boosts CBOT soybean oil, but domestic pre - Spring Festival factors limit continuous long positions. Supply is sufficient, and the basis quote may still decline in the short - term [1] - Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short correction. Domestic port inventory decline and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations support the market [1] - Rapeseed oil maintains a wide - range shock. The 05 contract faces hedging pressure, and the basis quote of reserve rapeseed oil slightly declines [1] Data Summary - Soybean oil: The price of Y2605 on January 23 was 8094 yuan, up 0.12% from the previous day. The basis was 476 yuan, down 7.75% [1] - Palm oil: The price of P2605 on January 23 was 8910 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 53.85% [1] - Rapeseed oil: The price of OIROS on January 23 was 8991 yuan, down 0.12%. The basis remained unchanged [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US cotton maintains a low - level shock. Domestic cotton consumption is high due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills, and the basis is strong. The expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area provides support. Attention should be paid to the support around 14,500 yuan [2] Data Summary - Cotton 2605 on January 23 was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.62% [2] - Spot prices such as Xinjiang 3128B increased, and the basis of 3128B - 05 contract increased by 9.36% [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. Thai sugar production is slow. Raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level shock between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level shock this week due to factors such as insufficient peak - season consumption and approaching the end of Spring Festival stocking [3] Data Summary - Sugar 2605 on January 23 was 5180 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 16.43% year - on - year [3] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market focuses on peak - season consumption. Sellers are actively shipping, and pre - holiday stocking may drive up spot prices. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upside is limited by hedging pressure [4] Data Summary - Jujube 2605 on January 23 was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The open interest decreased by 2.38% [4] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the arrival of the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the stocking atmosphere in some producing areas has improved. Good - quality apples have firm prices, while poor - quality ones face high inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to be strong due to low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and short - covering [5] Data Summary - Apple 2605 on January 23 was 9535 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% week - on - week [5] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply of corn is relatively tight in the short - term, and pre - holiday stocking demand supports the price. However, continuous policy corn auctions and limited high - price transmission restrict the upside. Attention should be paid to the enterprise stocking rhythm and policy release intensity [7] Data Summary - Corn 2603 on January 23 was 2300 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The open interest increased by 2.33% [7] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Spot prices are strengthening again, but the supply pressure will increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock as the main focus is on the post - holiday off - season [10] Data Summary - The main hog contract on January 23 was 1685 yuan, up 5.31%. The slaughter volume increased by 1.79% [10] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans are expected to be strong due to macro factors and biodiesel policy. Domestic supply is abundant, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low, and the meal price is expected to be in a shock range [13] Data Summary - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal on January 23 was 3080 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 increased by 5.45% [13] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Egg production is stable and sufficient. The demand may weaken as the Spring Festival stocking nears the end and group purchases decrease. Attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price eggs [14] Data Summary - The egg 03 contract on January 23 was 3046 yuan/500KG, down 1.58%. The basis increased by 26.72% [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Oil and Fat Industry**: The potential positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on CBOT soybean oil is countered by the approaching Chinese New Year, which reduces the likelihood of continuous long - position trading. The soybean oil basis may still decline in the short term. Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short - term correction. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with limited upside potential in the short term [1]. - **Cotton Industry**: US cotton is in a low - level oscillation. The high cotton consumption due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills in China, along with the expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area, provides strong support for Zhengzhou cotton. Attention should be paid to the support level around 14,500 [2]. - **Sugar Industry**: Internationally, raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are likely to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the approaching end of Chinese New Year stocking and lack of upward drivers, but some support from prices below production cost and a positive commodity market atmosphere [3]. - **Jujube Industry**: With the market focusing on peak - season consumption, the spot price of jujubes is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [4]. - **Apple Industry**: As the Chinese New Year stocking period arrives, the market in some apple - producing areas is warming up. The futures price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and some short - position exits [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch Industry**: In the short term, the tight supply of corn and pre - festival stocking demand support price increases, but the continuous policy - driven corn release and limited high - price transmission restrict the upward space [7]. - **Pig Industry**: The spot price of pigs has strengthened, but the supply pressure is expected to increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is likely to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [10]. - **Meal Industry**: US soybeans are oscillating strongly. The domestic meal market is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space due to factors such as low first - quarter arrival expectations and high - level inventory decline [13]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply is stable, and the demand may weaken. As egg prices reach a high level, there is a risk of price correction if the terminal digestion ability is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 23, 2026, soybean oil futures (Y2605) increased by 0.12%, palm oil futures (P2605) decreased by 0.38%, and rapeseed oil futures (OI2605) decreased by 0.12% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35%, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.22%, and the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% [1]. - **Basis**: The soybean oil basis decreased by 7.75%, the palm oil basis increased by 53.85%, and the rapeseed oil basis remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The soybean oil inventory in Chinese coastal crushing plants is at a high level since 2022, the palm oil inventory in Chinese ports is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, cotton 2605 decreased by 0.24%, cotton 2609 decreased by 0.17%, and ICE US cotton decreased by 0.11% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% [2]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The circular inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, and the consumption of cotton by downstream spinning mills is high [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, sugar 2605 increased by 0.43%, sugar 2609 increased by 0.33%, and ICE raw sugar decreased by 1.54% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.19% [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative sugar production in China decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, jujube 2605 increased by 0.63%, jujube 2607 increased by 0.51%, and jujube 2609 increased by 0.44% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Cangzhou's top - grade jujubes increased by 0.11%, and the prices of first - grade and second - grade jujubes remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The number of jujube warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the number of effective forecasts increased by 6.68% [4]. Apple Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, apple 2605 increased by 0.48%, and apple 2610 increased by 0.63% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The basis decreased by 3.57% [5]. - **Inventory**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: On January 26, 2026, corn 2603 increased by 0.22%, the basis decreased by 9.09%, and the north - south trade profit increased by 90.91% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 increased by 0.23%, the basis decreased by 3.57%, and the starch - corn 03 spread increased by 0.36% [7]. Pig Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, the main pig contract increased by 5.31%, pig 2605 decreased by 0.38%, and pig 2603 decreased by 0.30% [10]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions showed different changes [10]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.79%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 5.45% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 0.67%, and the basis increased by 5.56% [13]. - **Soybean**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 0.86%, and the basis decreased by 16.30% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, egg 03 decreased by 1.58%, and egg 04 decreased by 1.15% [14]. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.87%, and the basis increased by 26.72% [14]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 3.33%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.31%, and the egg - feed ratio increased by 17.36% [14].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货油脂油料月报 油脂油料 南美天气叙事或启动 市场或有上涨机会 2026 年 1 月 25 日 国际方面，2月南美天气仍有一定的炒作的题材，巴西中部地区的降雨可 能影响收割进度，而阿根廷地区的旱情也将引起市场的重视。尽管巴西大豆丰 产预期增强，但由于其价格优势明显，仍是中国采购的首选，巴西大豆升贴水 或保持坚挺格局，出现降价促销的概率减弱。进入2月份，美豆需求陷入一降 一增的局面，出口可能重新疲软，而压榨需求继续保持旺盛局面，美豆库存可 能会继续回升，美豆供给格局或转向宽松。不过由于南美2月份或有天气炒作 题材，这使得CBOT大豆在1000美分处或有支撑，期价维持底部震荡的走势，如 果南美天气持续发酵，CBOT大豆或有小幅上行的可能，否则维持震荡格局。 2 月份国内豆粕现货市场供给或因进口大豆到港下降或有不足，而需求平稳，这 使得豆粕现货库存稳中趋降。豆粕市场或呈现近强远弱，现货强期货弱的局面。 仍需关注海关通关的相关政策的变化。连粕或维持底部宽幅震荡，期价或在震 荡区间内小幅反弹，南美天气炒作、国内现货供给不足等因素或提供支撑。 油脂方面，国际方面，美豆油方面，2月美国多项 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trends of the three major oils were divergent. Palm oil showed the strongest performance among the three, with its futures price rising due to multiple positive factors such as reduced production and increased exports of Malaysian palm oil, and the clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed, with supply - side pressure rising slightly and attention on the Spring Festival stocking. Rapeseed oil may see an increase in supply after March, and the medium - to - long - term futures price may be weak. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [64]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Spot and Futures Prices of Three Major Oils - From January 16 to 23, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2605) rose from 8674 to 8910, a weekly increase of 2.72%, and the spot price rose from 8630 to 8870, a weekly increase of 2.78%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) dropped from 9063 to 8991, a weekly decrease of 0.79%, and the spot price dropped from 10034 to 9976, a weekly decrease of 0.58%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2605) rose from 8016 to 8094, a weekly increase of 0.97%, and the spot price rose from 8402 to 8442, a weekly increase of 0.48% [4]. 3.2 Basis and Spread of Three Major Oils - As of January 21, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 388 yuan/ton (decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared with the previous week), 989 yuan/ton (increased by 11 yuan/ton compared with the previous week), and - 108 yuan/ton (decreased by 110 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) respectively. As of January 23, 2026, the YP spread was - 816 yuan/ton (decreased by 158 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory of Three Major Oils - As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 74.61 million tons (increased by 1.01 million tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 96.33 million tons (decreased by 6.18 million tons compared with the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 171.14 million tons (decreased by 5.17 million tons compared with the previous week) [11]. 3.4 Supply - side of Palm Oil - As of January 20, 2026, the total port inventory of palm oil was 77.60 million tons (increased by 0.6 million tons compared with the previous week). SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [15]. 3.5 Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean inventory in national ports was 772.10 million tons (decreased by 30.7 million tons compared with the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 687.33 million tons (decreased by 25.79 million tons compared with the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (increased by 5% compared with the previous week). As of January 23, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 492.95 yuan/ton (decreased by 11.55 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [31]. 3.6 Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of January 16, 2026, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 23, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2461.60 yuan/ton (decreased by 243.6 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [46]. 3.7 Demand - side - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 400 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 11300 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.49 US dollars/ton (increased by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [59]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: There are positive developments in China - Canada trade relations; Indonesia continues to rectify illegal plantations, revoking the operating licenses of 28 companies; the US biodiesel policy is about to be clarified. - Foreign factors: Brazil is about to start a record - scale soybean harvest. The US NOPA's latest data shows that the soybean crushing volume in December was 225 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. For palm oil, different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 show different trends, and the production decreased by 16% month - on - month. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 5% compared with the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. - Inventory: As of January 16, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory remained at 0.2 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 74.61 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 96.33 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil increased by 2.72%, that of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.79%, and that of soybean oil increased by 0.97% [63]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: For palm oil, pay attention to the high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and the inventory inflection point is expected to arrive. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to China's procurement progress of Canadian rapeseed and the crushing situation of Australian rapeseed. For domestic soybean oil, pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking as the inventory is being reduced from a high level. - Medium - to - long - term: Palm oil futures prices are expected to rise as the origin is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil have improved. Rapeseed oil supply will increase after March, and the medium - to - long - term futures price may be weak. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering the cost - performance of soybean oil consumption, the cost center is expected to rise [64].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Oil Daily [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8032, up 36. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8552, 8602, and 8422 respectively. The spot basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8748, up 100. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8718, 8738, and 8878 respectively. The spot basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -10, and 130 respectively, with the latter two up 10 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8948, up 46. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9778, 9548. The spot basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi were 830 and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread - **Soybean Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was 124, up 4 [2]. - **Palm Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was 32, up 6 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil (5 - 9)**: The closing price was -27, down 6 [2]. Cross - Variety Spread - **Y - P (05 contract)**: The spread was -716, down 64 [2]. - **OI - Y (05 contract)**: The spread was 916, up 10 [2]. - **OI - P (05 contract)**: The spread was 200, down 54 [2]. - **Oil - Meal Ratio**: The ratio was 2.94, up 0.004 [2]. Import Profit - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -163, with a CNF price of 1068 for the 2 - month ship period [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1338, with an FOB price of 1030 for the 2 - month ship period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (Week 3, 2026, in 10,000 tons) - **Soybean Oil**: This week's inventory was 74.6, last week was 96.3, and last year's same - period was 102.5 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: This week's inventory was 73.6, last week was 46.9 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week's inventory was 27.5, last week was 25.1, and last year's same - period was 55.2 [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - Indonesia postponed the B50 policy, facing challenges such as stabilizing the biodiesel fund, narrowing the cost gap between biodiesel and traditional diesel, and solving logistics, infrastructure, and operational preparation issues [4]. - Malaysia is in a more favorable position in crude palm oil exports due to lower export tariffs, while Indonesia's high export tax increases export costs and may limit price competitiveness [4]. Domestic Market (P/Y/OI) - **Palm Oil**: The futures price closed up more than 1% today. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 74.61 million tons, up 1.01 million tons from last week, a 1.37% increase. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around -200. The basis was stable. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 million tons, and the operating rate was 54.86%. As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 96.33 million tons, down 6.18 million tons from last week, a 6.03% decrease. The basis was stable. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price closed slightly up. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 2.4 million tons. The import profit inversion has widened to around -1300. The short - term price of the near - month contract may have limited downside [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term oil prices are fluctuating, with many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis, monthly spread, cross - variety spread of different oils from 2017 - 2026 [13][16][19][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, with Indonesia canceling the implementation of the B50 policy this year, it is expected that the oil and fat market will experience wide - range fluctuations [5]. - The overall situation of the 12 - month MPOB report is bearish, with Malaysia's palm oil inventory exceeding expectations and accumulating [40]. - The overall situation of the oil and fat market in the short term is likely to be wide - range fluctuations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Viewpoints - **Soybean oil**: In the South American Brazilian main producing areas, there has been good rainfall recently, which is beneficial to the growth of sown soybeans. In the core producing areas of Argentina, there will be less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which needs key attention [7]. - **Palm oil**: ITS and AmSpec data show that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 15 increased by 18.64% and 17.5% respectively compared with the previous period. The Indonesian government has decided to maintain the biodiesel plan at the B40 level this year, and will increase the palm oil export tax to 12.5% from March. The US government is expected to finalize the final biofuel blending quota for 2026 in early March, with the expected biomass diesel blending volume being 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons, higher than 3.35 billion gallons in 2025, and no import - suppressing measures on foreign raw materials will be implemented [7]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The Canadian Prime Minister said that it is expected that by March 1, China will reduce the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to a total of about 15% [7]. 3.2 Strategy Views and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 05 be referred to as 8,800 - 9,000; for options, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for the time being [9]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [9]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, the oil and fat market fluctuated widely, mainly affected by Indonesia's biodiesel policy, export policy, and US biodiesel policy news [21]. - The soybean - palm oil spread fluctuated widely, the rapeseed - palm oil spread fluctuated weakly, and the rapeseed - soybean spread fluctuated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for all [26]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased by 5.46% to 1.8298 million tons compared with the previous month, consumption decreased by 14.01% to 0.3197 million tons, export volume increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons, and the palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons, exceeding market expectations [40]. - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0251 million tons, a decrease of 55,900 tons from the previous week, a decline of 5.17%, and an increase of 131,100 tons compared with the same period last year, a rise of 14.66% [78]. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 251,500 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in main national regions was 253,500 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons from the previous week [82]. - **Domestic palm oil**: As of January 9, 2026 (the 2nd week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.30%, and an increase of 234,800 tons compared with 501,200 tons last year, an increase of 46.85% [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - The report provides charts of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oil and fat trading volumes, but no specific analysis content is given [67][69][71][73]. 3.6 Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0251 million tons, a decrease of 55,900 tons from the previous week, a decline of 5.17%, and an increase of 131,100 tons compared with the same period last year, a rise of 14.66% [78]. - As of January 9, 2026 (the 2nd week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.30%, and an increase of 234,800 tons compared with 501,200 tons last year, an increase of 46.85% [78]. - As of January 9, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 251,500 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in main national regions was 253,500 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons from the previous week [82]. 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of January 16, 2026, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the February shipment was - 106 yuan/ton [88].