今年以来，焦煤期货价格持续下跌，在压减粗钢产量的背景下，后期焦煤期货将如何运行？ 需求下降 2025年3月6日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁表示，国家发展改革委将分行业出台化解重点产业结构矛盾 的具体方案，推动落后低效产能退出，扩大中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好适应市场需求变化。 在今年3月召开的全国两会上，国家发展改革委明确提出，出台化解重点产业结构性矛盾的政策措施， 通过强化产业调控、提质升级破"内卷"。持续实施粗钢产量调控，推动钢铁产业减量重组。 国家能源局2月27日发布了《2025年能源工作指导意见》。煤炭方面，意见提到，2025年煤炭要稳产增 产。国家能源局煤炭司3月3日表示，全力做好煤炭稳产稳供。4月29日，国务院国资委党委书记、主任 张玉卓强调，要坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，全力以赴履行好维护国家能源安全的重大使 命，进一步加强煤炭资源探产供储销衔接，增强兜底保障能力，精准规划项目投资和产能接续，扎实做 好能源保供工作。 数据显示，今年一季度我国原煤产量同比增长8.1%，其中山西地区一季度原煤产量同比增长19.8%。去 年山西煤炭产量较低，今年在稳产增产的政策基调下，山西煤炭产量同比大增。今年 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/7 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 908.00 | -3.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1507.00 | +5.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 400381.00 | ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 刷日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 90955 | 1576.0 | -25,5 | JM2601 | 959.5 | 980.0 | -20,5 | 101 查会 | -61.5 | -87.0 | 25.5 | | J2505 | 1470.5 | 1601.0 | -130.5 | JM2505 | 880.0 | 888.0 | -8.0 | 105基差 | 18.5 | -112.0 | 130 5 | | 12509 | 1505.0 | 1538.0 | -36.0 | 80952WIE | 911.5 | 930.5 | -19.0 | 100 变云 | -13.0 | -49.0 | 36.0 ...

Group 1 - The steel sector showed resilience on April 28, 2025, with companies like Sansteel Minguang, Shougang Corporation, Baosteel, New Steel, and Taiyuan Iron & Steel rising over 5% [1] - Steel LOF products (A: 502023, C: 012810, I: 024184) increased by over 2%, reflecting the overall performance of the black metal industry [1] - As of April 25, steel prices have risen, with 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3200 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities reported that Trump acknowledged the high 145% tariffs on China, indicating that tariffs will significantly decrease post-agreement but will not reach zero [2] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for preparedness against external shocks and may introduce policies to counteract the impact of external tariffs [2] - Long-term expectations suggest that crude steel production will be regulated, and the supply of iron ore and coking coal is expected to become more relaxed, potentially restoring profitability for steel companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Views - The steel industry shows resilience in demand, with steel prices experiencing a slight upward trend. The report highlights that the prices for five major steel products as of April 25 are as follows: rebar at 3,323 CNY/ton (+1.34%), wire rod at 3,645 CNY/ton (+1.02%), hot-rolled coil at 3,288 CNY/ton (+0.80%), cold-rolled coil at 3,812 CNY/ton (-1.54%), and medium plate at 3,529 CNY/ton (+0.41%) [2][3]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron water production, which rose by 4.23 million tons week-on-week, nearing historical highs. However, the increase in production does not correspond to a significant rise in finished steel supply, indicating a tight supply situation [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a notable improvement in the performance of listed steel companies, with most reporting improved quarterly profits due to lower raw material prices and effective cost control measures [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report indicates that the steel market is currently experiencing a supply increase while demand is slightly declining, yet steel prices are generally on the rise. This suggests that steel prices may have reached a bottom, supported by resilient demand [2][3]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.7584 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The average daily iron water production from 247 steel companies was 2.4435 million tons, also showing a week-on-week increase [2][3]. (b) Consumption of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 9.2625 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 223,900 tons. Notably, rebar and wire rod consumption saw significant declines [2][3]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased by 504,100 tons week-on-week, with social inventory down by 414,000 tons to 1,083,430 tons, and steel mill inventory down by 90,100 tons to 450,840 tons [2][3]. (d) Profitability - As of April 25, 54.98% of the sampled steel companies were profitable, an increase of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week. The average iron water cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,418 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase [2][3]. 3. Stock Market Performance - The steel index reported a weekly increase of 1.65%, closing at 2,147.63 points, outperforming the broader market index which rose by 1.15% [4]. The overall price-to-book ratio for the steel sector is at 0.96, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [4]. 4. Policy and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at resolving structural issues in the steel industry, which are expected to support price increases and improve profitability in the sector [10]. The focus on reducing low-efficiency production capacity and enhancing high-end production capabilities is highlighted as a key strategy moving forward [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel [6][9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating demand and reducing supply, with a focus on high-quality development [2][4]. - The report highlights an increase in daily molten iron production and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][12]. - The demand for steel products has shown signs of recovery, although there are fluctuations in specific product categories [39][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural changes in the economy, moving from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth [2][4]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production increased by 4.4 thousand tons to 244.4 thousand tons, with a rise in the utilization rate of blast furnaces to 91.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous week [3][18]. - Total steel inventory decreased by 3.2%, with significant reductions in both social and factory inventories [24][25]. - The report notes that the government is implementing policies to control crude steel production, which is expected to lead to a reduction in supply and support price stability [4][13]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 2.4% week-on-week, with rebar consumption showing a notable decline [39][47]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel increased by 11.6%, indicating some recovery in demand [40][39]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have shown strength, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.7% week-on-week [66]. - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for steel products are improving, particularly for long-process steel [66][68]. - The report highlights that the current market conditions may lead to a stronger performance in steel prices in the near term [66][67]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - Xining Special Steel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - New Steel (Buy) - Changbao Steel (Buy) - Yongjin Steel (Buy) [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, citing improvements in supply and demand dynamics that provide bottom support for steel prices [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship has improved, contributing to a bottom support for steel prices. As of April 18, the prices for five major steel products showed slight declines, with rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, down 0.59% week-on-week. Total production for these products was 8.7271 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons [1][2]. - The report notes a significant increase in apparent consumption of major steel products, particularly rebar, which saw a week-on-week increase of 21,140 tons. This is attributed to a rapid decline in inventory levels, with social inventory of rebar decreasing by 30,340 tons [2][9]. - The report emphasizes that while steel prices remain weak, they are at low levels, and the demand from essential purchases is providing some support for price stability. The industry is in a phase of seeking a new equilibrium in supply and demand, with expectations of gradual stabilization in the fundamentals [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of April 18, the five major steel product prices were as follows: rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,608 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,262 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,872 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,515 CNY/ton. Weekly changes were -0.59%, -0.48%, -0.88%, -2.14%, and +0.13% respectively [1][14]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products was 8.7271 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons. Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [1][20]. (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.4864 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 481,000 tons. The apparent consumption changes for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and medium plate were +21,140 tons, +17,030 tons, +8,830 tons, -1,520 tons, and +2,620 tons respectively [1][39]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.8468 million tons, down 759,300 tons week-on-week. Social inventory fell by 519,000 tons to 11.2483 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 240,300 tons to 4.5985 million tons [1][51]. (d) Profitability Situation - As of April 18, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil was +73 CNY/ton, +22 CNY/ton, and +60 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -35 CNY/ton, -45 CNY/ton, and -84 CNY/ton [1][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a significant recovery in production and demand, with March crude steel daily output increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month, indicating a strong recovery in steel mills' production enthusiasm [2][6]. - The apparent consumption of steel in March 2025 reached 82.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with a notable acceleration in downstream demand [2]. - The net export of steel in March was 9.96 million tons, up 7.4% year-on-year, driven by price advantages and export factors [3]. Summary by Sections Production and Demand - In March 2025, crude steel production was 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a daily average of 2.995 million tons [6]. - The manufacturing sector showed strong growth, with the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) at 50.5, indicating expansion [2]. Export and Import Trends - March steel exports were 10.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, while imports decreased by 18.8% [6]. - Iron ore imports in March were 93.97 million tons, down 6.7% year-on-year, influenced by high port inventories [6]. Government Policy and Industry Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing crude steel production controls to promote industry restructuring, with some steel mills already announcing production cuts [3]. - The report suggests that the steel industry's medium to long-term fundamentals are likely to improve, supported by government fiscal measures and supply-side adjustments [7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the **black metal industry**, focusing on steel and iron ore markets, along with the implications of domestic and international economic conditions on these sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: The domestic market is experiencing a shift with the introduction of new policies aimed at addressing global structural contradictions. There is a focus on how these policies will impact demand and growth trends, both internally and externally [2][4]. 2. **Steel Production and Quality**: Major steel manufacturers are transitioning towards producing higher quality steel products, including green steel initiatives. This shift is expected to enhance the overall structure and output of steel production [5][6]. 3. **Export Challenges**: The reliance on low-value steel exports is becoming increasingly unsustainable. The industry is encouraged to focus on exporting high-quality steel to maintain competitiveness and profitability [7][10]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The iron ore market is showing signs of a downward trend, with prices dropping significantly. This is attributed to various factors, including shipping costs and market demand fluctuations [9][11]. 5. **Steel Plant Operations**: Steel plants are managing production levels carefully, avoiding overproduction despite short-term price increases. This strategic approach aims to align with annual production goals [8][10]. 6. **Profit Margins**: The profitability of steel plants is currently stable, with a focus on maintaining margins amidst fluctuating raw material costs and shipping fees [11][12]. 7. **Future Outlook**: The overall sentiment is cautious, with expectations of continued pressure on iron ore prices and steel demand. The market is anticipated to remain volatile, influenced by both domestic policies and international trade dynamics [15][21][26]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment in Infrastructure**: There is a recognition that infrastructure investment is crucial for stimulating demand in the steel sector, but current levels of new projects are not sufficient to drive significant growth [31][32]. - **Global Trade Dynamics**: The impact of tariffs and international trade relations, particularly with the U.S., is a significant concern for the steel export market. The expectation is that these factors will continue to influence pricing and demand [21][38]. - **Consumer Behavior**: Domestic consumption patterns are shifting, with a noted increase in demand for steel in technology-related sectors. This trend may provide some support for the steel market despite broader economic challenges [43][44]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the black metal industry, particularly in relation to steel and iron ore markets.

截至2025年3月28日当周，铁矿石期货主力合约收于785.5元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持 73497手。 机构观点汇总： 长江期货：近期仍然是走钢厂复产逻辑，但需求预期普遍悲观，空方力量较强，黑色系整体承压，复产 →原料难以形成正反馈。发改委再提粗钢产量调控，部分宏观利好兑现，但尚未有具体文件出台，行政 限产有待考量。综上，预计矿价震荡偏弱运行，仍以反弹空思路看待。 消息面回顾： 申银万国期货：原料端在供给策变动的预期下表现偏弱，但铁水产量依然有继续回升的空间，钢厂利润 情况尚可，复产动能较强，后续高炉复产或将进一步加速，铁矿需求边际回暖。全球铁矿发运近期有所 减量，主要是澳洲发运前段时间受阻，港口库存去化速率较快。中期供需失衡压力较大，铁矿石下半年 发运量预计增长较快，关注后续钢厂复产进度，短期缺乏驱动整体跟随成材，铁矿石短期震荡偏弱看 待。 3月27日，全国主港铁矿石成交84.3万吨，环比跌14.24%；远期现货成交110.7万吨。 据统计全国47个港口进口铁矿库存总量14979.40万吨，环比增加64.91万吨；日均疏港量325.31万吨，增 10.20万吨；全国45个港口进口铁矿库存总量1 ...