Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the state is promoting national crude steel production control, the central bank has cut the reserve - requirement ratio, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered. Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and a limited bilateral trade agreement was reached. The iron - alloy sector is under pressure, with negative production profits and weak steel demand expectations. The cost of electricity in Ningxia has decreased, and the technical trend of the silicon - iron main contract is bearish. It is recommended to treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The state is promoting crude steel production control, the central bank cut the reserve - requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%, and a limited bilateral trade agreement was reached, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The iron - alloy sector is under pressure, with negative production profits. The profit in Inner Mongolia is - 230 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 110 yuan/ton. Steel demand expectations are generally weak. Follow - up tariff conflicts may see new progress after the Sino - US talks [6]. - **Cost Aspect**: The electricity cost in Ningxia decreased by 1 cent, and the semi - coke price remained stable [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating due to the decrease in supply and pressure on sector demand [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 9, the silicon - iron futures contract open interest was 473,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 85,100 lots; the monthly spread was - 50, a week - on - week decrease of 126. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 18,908, an increase of 1,804. The spot price in Ningxia was 5,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 9, the silicon - iron basis was - 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 [21]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: The silicon - iron operating rate increased, while demand decreased. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types was 20,336.3 tons, a 2.00% decrease from last week. The national operating rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 32.53%, an increase of 1.79%. The daily output was 14,700 tons, an increase of 550 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises decreased by 11.83% to 73,700 tons [27][30]. - **Upstream**: As of May 6, the electricity price in Ningxia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kWh, and in Inner Mongolia, it remained at 0.42 yuan/kWh. As of May 8, the semi - coke price remained at 665 yuan/ton. The production cost in Ningxia was 5,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia, it remained at 5,680 yuan/ton. The production profit in Ningxia was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [34][39]. - **Downstream**: As of May 9, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 0.0022 million tons from last week and 0.1114 million tons from last year. From January to March 2025, the total silicon - iron export volume was 90,500 tons, a 18.70% decrease from the same period last year. The silicon - iron tender price was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton compared to March [44].

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon stone in Qinghai and Ningxia ranges from 180 to 230 CNY/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan charcoal is between 610 and 670 CNY/ton[2] - The current cash price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5400-5500 CNY/ton, and for 75 silicon iron, it is 5950-6050 CNY/ton[2] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts increased by 19 to 17881 receipts, with a total forecast of 96480 tons, up by 2600 tons[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed up 0.42% at 158.08, with a net outflow of 61.987 billion CNY[2] - The black series showed mixed results, with SF2506 closing at 5430, up 0.04%, and a net outflow of 210 million CNY[2] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with a focus on buying on the rise rather than on the fall[4] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese ore prices are fluctuating, with semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port priced at 32-33 CNY/ton, and South African high-grade at 30.5-31 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon current cash prices are between 5500-5600 CNY/ton, with a notable point price transaction at 5350 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1405 to 123166 receipts, indicating a clear trend of inventory reduction[7] Group 4: Macro Economic Factors - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reduced policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points[12] - The logistics industry’s prosperity index for April was reported at 51.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[12] - The total manganese ore inventory in China decreased by 26.39 million tons, with significant reductions at various ports[13]

今年以来，焦煤期货价格持续下跌，在压减粗钢产量的背景下，后期焦煤期货将如何运行？ 需求下降 2025年3月6日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁表示，国家发展改革委将分行业出台化解重点产业结构矛盾 的具体方案，推动落后低效产能退出，扩大中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好适应市场需求变化。 在今年3月召开的全国两会上，国家发展改革委明确提出，出台化解重点产业结构性矛盾的政策措施， 通过强化产业调控、提质升级破"内卷"。持续实施粗钢产量调控，推动钢铁产业减量重组。 国家能源局2月27日发布了《2025年能源工作指导意见》。煤炭方面，意见提到，2025年煤炭要稳产增 产。国家能源局煤炭司3月3日表示，全力做好煤炭稳产稳供。4月29日，国务院国资委党委书记、主任 张玉卓强调，要坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，全力以赴履行好维护国家能源安全的重大使 命，进一步加强煤炭资源探产供储销衔接，增强兜底保障能力，精准规划项目投资和产能接续，扎实做 好能源保供工作。 数据显示，今年一季度我国原煤产量同比增长8.1%，其中山西地区一季度原煤产量同比增长19.8%。去 年山西煤炭产量较低，今年在稳产增产的政策基调下，山西煤炭产量同比大增。今年 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/7 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 908.00 | -3.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1507.00 | +5.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 400381.00 | ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 刷日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 90955 | 1576.0 | -25,5 | JM2601 | 959.5 | 980.0 | -20,5 | 101 查会 | -61.5 | -87.0 | 25.5 | | J2505 | 1470.5 | 1601.0 | -130.5 | JM2505 | 880.0 | 888.0 | -8.0 | 105基差 | 18.5 | -112.0 | 130 5 | | 12509 | 1505.0 | 1538.0 | -36.0 | 80952WIE | 911.5 | 930.5 | -19.0 | 100 变云 | -13.0 | -49.0 | 36.0 ...

Group 1 - The steel sector showed resilience on April 28, 2025, with companies like Sansteel Minguang, Shougang Corporation, Baosteel, New Steel, and Taiyuan Iron & Steel rising over 5% [1] - Steel LOF products (A: 502023, C: 012810, I: 024184) increased by over 2%, reflecting the overall performance of the black metal industry [1] - As of April 25, steel prices have risen, with 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3200 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities reported that Trump acknowledged the high 145% tariffs on China, indicating that tariffs will significantly decrease post-agreement but will not reach zero [2] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for preparedness against external shocks and may introduce policies to counteract the impact of external tariffs [2] - Long-term expectations suggest that crude steel production will be regulated, and the supply of iron ore and coking coal is expected to become more relaxed, potentially restoring profitability for steel companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Views - The steel industry shows resilience in demand, with steel prices experiencing a slight upward trend. The report highlights that the prices for five major steel products as of April 25 are as follows: rebar at 3,323 CNY/ton (+1.34%), wire rod at 3,645 CNY/ton (+1.02%), hot-rolled coil at 3,288 CNY/ton (+0.80%), cold-rolled coil at 3,812 CNY/ton (-1.54%), and medium plate at 3,529 CNY/ton (+0.41%) [2][3]. - The report notes a significant increase in iron water production, which rose by 4.23 million tons week-on-week, nearing historical highs. However, the increase in production does not correspond to a significant rise in finished steel supply, indicating a tight supply situation [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a notable improvement in the performance of listed steel companies, with most reporting improved quarterly profits due to lower raw material prices and effective cost control measures [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report indicates that the steel market is currently experiencing a supply increase while demand is slightly declining, yet steel prices are generally on the rise. This suggests that steel prices may have reached a bottom, supported by resilient demand [2][3]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.7584 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The average daily iron water production from 247 steel companies was 2.4435 million tons, also showing a week-on-week increase [2][3]. (b) Consumption of Five Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 9.2625 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 223,900 tons. Notably, rebar and wire rod consumption saw significant declines [2][3]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased by 504,100 tons week-on-week, with social inventory down by 414,000 tons to 1,083,430 tons, and steel mill inventory down by 90,100 tons to 450,840 tons [2][3]. (d) Profitability - As of April 25, 54.98% of the sampled steel companies were profitable, an increase of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week. The average iron water cost for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,418 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase [2][3]. 3. Stock Market Performance - The steel index reported a weekly increase of 1.65%, closing at 2,147.63 points, outperforming the broader market index which rose by 1.15% [4]. The overall price-to-book ratio for the steel sector is at 0.96, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [4]. 4. Policy and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at resolving structural issues in the steel industry, which are expected to support price increases and improve profitability in the sector [10]. The focus on reducing low-efficiency production capacity and enhancing high-end production capabilities is highlighted as a key strategy moving forward [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Special Steel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Baosteel [6][9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating demand and reducing supply, with a focus on high-quality development [2][4]. - The report highlights an increase in daily molten iron production and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][12]. - The demand for steel products has shown signs of recovery, although there are fluctuations in specific product categories [39][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural changes in the economy, moving from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth [2][4]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production increased by 4.4 thousand tons to 244.4 thousand tons, with a rise in the utilization rate of blast furnaces to 91.6%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous week [3][18]. - Total steel inventory decreased by 3.2%, with significant reductions in both social and factory inventories [24][25]. - The report notes that the government is implementing policies to control crude steel production, which is expected to lead to a reduction in supply and support price stability [4][13]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 2.4% week-on-week, with rebar consumption showing a notable decline [39][47]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel increased by 11.6%, indicating some recovery in demand [40][39]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have shown strength, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.7% week-on-week [66]. - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for steel products are improving, particularly for long-process steel [66][68]. - The report highlights that the current market conditions may lead to a stronger performance in steel prices in the near term [66][67]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (Buy) - Nanjing Steel (Buy) - Baosteel (Buy) - Xining Special Steel (Buy) - Jiuli Special Materials (Buy) - New Steel (Buy) - Changbao Steel (Buy) - Yongjin Steel (Buy) [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, citing improvements in supply and demand dynamics that provide bottom support for steel prices [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship has improved, contributing to a bottom support for steel prices. As of April 18, the prices for five major steel products showed slight declines, with rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, down 0.59% week-on-week. Total production for these products was 8.7271 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons [1][2]. - The report notes a significant increase in apparent consumption of major steel products, particularly rebar, which saw a week-on-week increase of 21,140 tons. This is attributed to a rapid decline in inventory levels, with social inventory of rebar decreasing by 30,340 tons [2][9]. - The report emphasizes that while steel prices remain weak, they are at low levels, and the demand from essential purchases is providing some support for price stability. The industry is in a phase of seeking a new equilibrium in supply and demand, with expectations of gradual stabilization in the fundamentals [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of April 18, the five major steel product prices were as follows: rebar at 3,279 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,608 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,262 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,872 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,515 CNY/ton. Weekly changes were -0.59%, -0.48%, -0.88%, -2.14%, and +0.13% respectively [1][14]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products was 8.7271 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 16,500 tons. Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [1][20]. (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 9.4864 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 481,000 tons. The apparent consumption changes for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and medium plate were +21,140 tons, +17,030 tons, +8,830 tons, -1,520 tons, and +2,620 tons respectively [1][39]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory decreased to 15.8468 million tons, down 759,300 tons week-on-week. Social inventory fell by 519,000 tons to 11.2483 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 240,300 tons to 4.5985 million tons [1][51]. (d) Profitability Situation - As of April 18, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil was +73 CNY/ton, +22 CNY/ton, and +60 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -35 CNY/ton, -45 CNY/ton, and -84 CNY/ton [1][39].