责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 今年，随着市场回暖，基金发行市场亦显著回升。前11个月，基金发行市场呈现数量与规模双增、结构 调整的特征。新发基金超1375只，同比增长35%；募集份额逾1.06万亿份，同比略增。其中，权益基金 发行募集规模超越债券基金，占比过半；而去年发行主力为债券基金，显示行情逐步回暖、赚钱效应提 升，投资者借基入市，为A股带来增量资金。不过，当前发行热度仍处低位，尚未触及"高温区"。 今年，随着市场回暖，基金发行市场亦显著回升。前11个月，基金发行市场呈现数量与规模双增、结构 调整的特征。新发基金超1375只，同比增长35%；募集份额逾1.06万亿份，同比略增。其中，权益基金 发行募集规模超越债券基金，占比过半；而去年发行主力为债券基金，显示行情逐步回暖、赚钱效应提 升，投资者借基入市，为A股带来增量资金。不过，当前发行热度仍处低位，尚未触及"高温区"。 市场高低点可借新基金发行量窥见：行情低迷时，基金发行失败案例增多，媒体集中报道，恰为布局良 机；反之，若单日百亿级新发基金频现，则往往是见顶信号。A股历史上曾三次出现"百亿日光基"潮 ——2007年6000点、2015年5000点、202 ...

Group 1 - The core reason for not lowering housing prices is the economic dependency on the real estate sector, which supports a vast employment chain from construction to furniture and design [3][4] - Protecting jobs in the real estate industry is prioritized over drastic price reductions, as maintaining employment stability is deemed crucial [4] - Local governments rely heavily on land sales for revenue, with over 30% of their income coming from this source, making a drop in housing prices detrimental to fiscal health [5][6] Group 2 - The financial system is under pressure, as a significant portion of home purchases are financed through loans; a sharp decline in housing prices could lead to a wave of defaults [8][9] - Maintaining stable housing prices is also a strategic consideration in the context of international economic competition, particularly with the U.S. [10] - The government aims to balance housing prices while increasing income levels, with a focus on fostering new economic growth areas to reduce reliance on real estate [15]

Group 1: Short-term Outlook - The midstream sector is expected to show better performance due to several new changes [2][3] - Static observation indicates that both potential and performance in the midstream sector are superior [2] - Dynamic observation suggests that machinery and electrical exports may experience high growth [2][3] Group 2: Mid-term Focus - The distribution of deposits is a key focus, with significant changes anticipated for 2026 [2][3] - CPI is expected to trend positively, while PPI's timing for turning positive remains uncertain [2][3] - Real estate prices are likely to experience low-level fluctuations, requiring further support [2][3] Group 3: Long-term Transformation - Enhancing consumption rates is crucial, with a focus on service consumption [2][3] - The export sector has considerable upward potential, driven by various factors [2][3] - The manufacturing sector needs to consider a "reasonable proportion" in the economic structure [2][3] Group 4: Investment Insights - The overall judgment on major asset classes suggests a preference for equities over bonds, continuing the rebalancing trend [3] - The internal structure of asset classes indicates opportunities and risks within equities and bonds [3] - International comparisons of asset classes highlight the value of stock allocations [3] Group 5: Potential Variables - The possibility of a tech bubble, particularly in the U.S. AI sector, is under consideration [3] - U.S. monetary policy may face dual variables, with inflation risks potentially halting rate cuts [3] - Infrastructure investment in China is expected to remain weak, with uncertainties surrounding policy changes [3] Group 6: Data Estimation - The macroeconomic outlook for key indicators suggests improvements in nominal GDP and consumer spending [3] - Export resilience and investment trends are critical for future economic performance [3] - Real estate and retail sectors are projected to remain weak, impacting overall economic growth [3]

来源：一瑜中的 报告目录 | 一、看短期:中游景气度或更胜一筹 | | --- | | (一)关注中游:已出现若干"新"变化 . | | (二)思考中游:宏观景气度或更胜一筹 . | | 1、景气观察 1: 静态看,潜力与表现均更优 …………………………………………………………………… 16 | | 2、景气观察 2:动态看,机电出口或高增长 | | (三)分析中游:微观 ROE 或继续回升 . | | 1、思考框架:ROE 的核心在哪? | | 2、思考焦点:供需两侧的预测!……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 19 | | 二、看中期: 聚焦存款分布与物价走势 . | | (一)聚焦存款:花落谁家?谈三部门存款交互框架 | | 1、2025 存款在哪?重视两个交互 . | | 2、2026 存款去哪?提示三个变化 . | | (二)聚焦物价:何时转正?谈三物价趋势判断框架 | | 1、CPI:趋势确定,时点已至 | | 2、PPI:趋势确定,时点难定 | | 3、房价:或低位震荡,仍待加力 | | 三、看长期:转型之路的合理"靠 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 economic outlook for China indicates that challenges are more profound than they appear, with a complex external environment and internal structural adjustments leading to moderate growth [1][3] Global Macro Backdrop - The global economic landscape for 2026 presents various scenarios, with persistent inflation and interest rate pressures, alongside trade constraints impacting growth [1][7] - US-China trade tensions remain a significant external variable, with tariffs increasing and uncertainty affecting bilateral trade and investment [1][13] Internal Policy Adjustments - Since September 2024, China has adopted a "three arrows" approach focusing on structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing, with policies adapting to economic data [2][38] - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-quality development, prioritizing high-end manufacturing, technological self-sufficiency, and expanding domestic demand [2][40] Economic Performance Projections - China's GDP is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, with contributions from consumption, investment, and net exports, although domestic demand remains weak [2][38] - The recovery across industries is uneven, with high-end manufacturing and new energy vehicles performing well, while the real estate sector continues to face challenges [2][38] Trade and External Accounts - Exports show resilience, particularly in high-tech products, and the current account is expected to maintain a surplus, with the RMB fluctuating within a reasonable range [2][38] - The transition to a new economic model is ongoing, with new economic drivers gradually contributing more to growth, despite structural contradictions and short-term pressures [2][38] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 4% of GDP, with ongoing efforts to enhance consumption support and improve fund allocation efficiency [2][38] - Monetary policy is expected to remain prudent, with adjustments to policy rates and reserve requirements to manage liquidity, although net interest margin pressures limit the scope for rate cuts [2][38]

11月27日，国信证券首席经济学家荀玉根在"第19届中国投资年会"上放了个大招，他说现在这轮行情时空还没走完，这话一出，大伙儿都在琢磨，这牛市到 底还有多少空间？ 1998-2000年那阵子，轻工业产能过剩，跟现在房地产链供给过剩的情况有点类似。 都是经济遇到坎了，政策出来拉一把股市，想通过资本市场提振信心。 1999年那波行情，政策组合拳打得挺猛，又是降印花税，又是推国企改革。 2024年这次也不含糊，量化宽松加上产业扶持政策，力度一点不小。 要搞明白现在的市场走势，不妨先看看历史。 1999年那波"5·19行情"很多老股民应该还有印象，当时宏观经济压力不小，政策一出手，股市一个月就从1000点冲到1700点，涨了70%。 那波行情持续了两年，总涨幅120%，最后还是因为政策退出才结束的。 把时钟拨回现在，2024年的"9·24行情"也挺猛，6个交易日上证指数从2600点涨到3000点。 同样是政策驱动，同样是经济下行期，这两次行情还真有点像双胞胎，不过仔细看，两者又有不一样的地方。 1999年那会刚经历亚洲金融危机，政策空间受紧缩周期制约。 现在不一样了，美联储降息周期开启，国内利率环境也比较宽松，政策工 ...

第二季度数据显示，阿经济正日趋多元化，但消费增速放缓，反映出家庭消费习惯趋于谨慎。随着 投资增加和通胀得到较好控制，第二季度的各项指标展现了阿经济发展的积极信号。 国内需求和投资成为本季度经济增长新动力。国内需求增长10.2%，高于2024年同期的6.8%。这一 现象主要归因于投资显著增长，投资增长了12.4%。同期，家庭消费略有下降（-3.9%），降幅低于上年 的-4.1%。政府支出增长3.1%，高于去年同期的2.3%。本季度的经济增长更多依靠生产性活动，而非家 庭支出。 在经济增长的同时，通胀也显著放缓。通胀率降至1.1%，去年同期为4.1%。因蔬菜等农产品价格 大幅下跌，食品价格下降1.4%，但部分食品价格持续上涨，如鸡肉价格增长19%，水果价格增长 21.6%。加工食品价格下降0.7%，童装价格下降1.6%，学习用品价格下降7.7%，服务业价格总体保持稳 定。 （原标题：2025年第二季度阿尔及利亚经济增长3.9%） 阿尔及利亚360网站11月21日报道，2025年第二季度，阿经济增长3.9%，略高于上年同期水平。阿 非油气行业增长强劲，非油气行业已成为经济增长的真正引擎，凸显阿尔及利亚经济正在转型， ...

Core Viewpoint - The German government has proposed to the EU to relax the 2035 ban on the sale of combustion engine vehicles in response to significant challenges facing the domestic automotive industry [1][2] Group 1: Policy Changes - The proposal includes allowing plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles with fuel range extenders, and "efficient" traditional combustion vehicles to continue sales after the 2035 ban takes effect [1] - Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized the need to protect domestic manufacturers from emission violation penalties while maintaining industry competitiveness without compromising climate goals [1][2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The German automotive industry is under multiple pressures, including trade barriers with the US, increased competition in the Chinese market, and weak domestic demand, leading companies like Volkswagen to initiate large-scale layoffs [1] - The government views revitalizing the automotive industry as a crucial opportunity to boost the economy amid aging infrastructure and workforce challenges [1] Group 3: Political Dynamics - The Merz government faces political pressure from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which capitalizes on public anxiety regarding the transition to electric vehicles [2] - The ruling coalition, with insufficient public support, reached a consensus with the Social Democratic Party to establish a policy direction that protects the German automotive industry without undermining climate objectives [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period presents four significant opportunities for China's capital market, including policy dividends from deepened reforms, new momentum from economic transformation, improved institutional foundations, and value reassessment to invigorate market vitality [1][2][3] Group 2 - The first opportunity is the comprehensive deepening of reforms that will release policy dividends, with structural issues needing resolution through high-level opening and reform, which is expected to return economic growth to a reasonable range [2][3] - The second opportunity involves economic transformation that will foster new momentum, with emerging industries and the upgrading of traditional industries expected to create a market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [2][3] Group 3 - The third opportunity is the improvement of capital market systems, emphasizing "investor first" principles and promoting coordinated reforms in investment and financing, which will solidify the foundation for healthy market development [3][4] - The fourth opportunity is the value reassessment that will stimulate market vitality, driven by domestic economic transformation, diversification of resident assets, and global asset rebalancing [3][4] Group 4 - Wealth management institutions are expected to play a larger role in asset allocation, particularly in a low-interest and high-volatility environment, with a focus on four key areas for equity asset allocation over the next five years [4] - Gold is highlighted as having continued allocation value, with its share in private investment potentially increasing from just over 2% to 4-5% due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4] Group 5 - The future investment opportunities arising from transformation and upgrading will require enhanced asset allocation capabilities from wealth management institutions to navigate through economic cycles [4][5]

参考消息网11月26日报道 西班牙《经济学家报》网站11月24日发表题为《德国劳动力市场一个被忽略 的数据背后隐藏的经济深刻转变》的文章，作者为马里奥·贝塞达斯。编译如下： 德国的整体经济状况已不再是秘密。强大的工业正受到内部弱点和外部现实的双重打击。外部的"新世 界"摧毁了德国数十年来赖以生存的高附加值出口模式，导致经济陷入瘫痪，政界人士措手不及。 他们急于摆脱困境，尽管柏林试图展现决心或加大投资，但仍然在人们心中埋下了疑虑的种子。社会蔓 延着沮丧情绪。然而，在这层表象之下，德国经济正在发生一场深刻的变革。 当人们看到有关德国工业生存危机的新闻标题时，脑海中浮现的仍然是一个烟囱林立、煤炭堆积如山的 大型工厂的画面。但事实早已不是如此。就像大多数发达经济体一样，服务业在德国国内生产总值 (GDP)中占比较大，目前接近70%，而工业占比仅仅略高于20%。传统工业持续"萎缩"，以技术为主的 制造业和服务业都在经历显著的变革。 巴黎国民银行的一项分析指出，2019年底以来欧元区新增的700万个就业岗位中，近四分之一来自技术 和数字领域，德国就是一个典型案例。该银行分析师纪尧姆·德里安指出，"德国或许是这种趋势的最好 ...