美联储主席鲍威尔重申未来没有无风险的政策路径，他表示，政策立场仍有适度的限制性，已做好充分 准备应对潜在的发展情况；降息是朝着更中性政策立场迈出的又一步；长期通胀预期符合2%的目标， 未来几个季度可能出现"一次性"价格上涨；商品价格上涨在很大程度上反映的是关税因素，而非更广泛 的价格压力。（格隆汇） ...

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：美联储的通胀目标仍为2%，必须回归目标。 我 认为美联储的政策具有温和的限制性。 中性利率比当前利率低100-125个基点。 ...

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibit complex and divergent trends, with the US market continuing to reach new highs driven by strong performance in technology and small-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices show notable gains, while the Dow Jones index experiences a slight increase, supported by robust corporate earnings and positive developments in the AI sector [1][3] - In contrast, European markets show weakness, with the UK FTSE 100 index slightly up, while the German DAX and French CAC 40 indices both decline, reflecting concerns over economic growth and policy uncertainty in the region [1][3] Commodity Performance - Gold prices have significantly risen, indicating strong demand, while WTI crude oil prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply [1][4] - The reopening of a major pipeline in Iraq has heightened supply concerns, contributing to a decline in oil prices [4] Key Indices and Movements - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.44% to 6,693.75, while the Dow Jones rose by 0.14% to 46,381.54 [4] - The Nasdaq 100 index saw a rise of 0.55% to 22,788.98, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.60% to 2,463.34 [4] - European indices such as the DAX and CAC 40 experienced declines of 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively, indicating a bearish sentiment in the region [4] Investor Sentiment - Overall, investors maintain a defensive stance with limited risk appetite, as evidenced by the mixed performance across global markets [3] - The focus for upcoming trading days will be on signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and key inflation data [3]

上周（9月15日-19日）黄金市场受到美联储鹰派表态影响，价格呈现冲高回落走势。但在美国临时支 出法案受阻的背景下，避险情绪依然加持贵金属市场，整体调整幅度较为有限。 市场观点方面，过往一周（9．15~9．19）黄金资产在相对偏鹰派的美联储利率声明中冲高回落。美 联储如期降息25bps，市场选择首先交易2025年点阵图更鸽派的指引（年内剩余50BP的降息空间）， 随后交易2026年更鹰派的指引（2026年仅一次降息25BP）和发布会上鲍威尔偏鹰派的表态，这是黄金 周内冲高回落的主要原因。但未来美联储或将迎来从数据依赖到政治裹挟的重塑，米兰所代表的特朗 普意愿仍指向明年125BP的降息预期，联储压缩明年降息路径或也受到周内公布的强劲零售数据影 响，未来相关理事能否持续保持数据依赖的独立性需持续跟踪。 此外上周共和党与民主党临时支出法案均未能通过参议院投票。由于现存的支出法案仅能维持政府运 转到9月底，因此若未来两党不能尽快就支出内容达成一致，则联邦政府10月1日停摆的风险将大幅升 温，届时政治环境不确定性的风险或再度加剧市场波动，这也使得周内的黄金调整幅度较为有限，很 快再次获得避险买盘。从海外ETF和COME ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 6600 to 6800 points, indicating a potential 2% upside based on the latest closing price [1] Group 1: Reasons for Target Adjustment - The upward adjustment is primarily based on two factors: the Federal Reserve's more dovish policy stance and resilient corporate earnings [1] - Goldman Sachs has also increased its 6-month and 12-month return expectations for the S&P 500 index to 5% and 8%, respectively, suggesting target levels of 7000 and 7200 points [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - Recently, the Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut since December, with plans for further cuts in October and December as the labor market cools [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that both upcoming meetings will result in a 25 basis point rate cut, a view shared by most major Wall Street firms [1] Group 3: Market Context - Earlier this year, concerns over an economic recession intensified following President Trump's "liberation day" tariff policy, leading to a sell-off in global stock markets and a downward revision of the S&P 500 index target to below 6000 points by major banks [1] - However, the easing of tariff policies and rising expectations for Federal Reserve easing have alleviated investor anxiety, reducing recession risks and driving the stock market to new historical highs [1] - According to S&P Global data, the S&P 500 index has risen over 30% since its low on April 8, and has repeatedly set closing records between July and September, with the latest closing price reaching 6693.75 points as of early September [1]

Federal Reserve and Economic Perspectives - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been met with mixed reactions, with some arguing that the Fed is misreading economic signals and projecting overly pessimistic growth rates of 1.6% for this year and 1.5% for next year, despite a recent GDP growth print of 3.3% [4][5] - Steven Myron's appointment to the Federal Reserve Board is seen as a positive development, bringing a fresh perspective to an institution criticized for groupthink and a fear of economic growth [6][7] - There is a belief that the Fed's primary role should be to maintain a strong and stable dollar, rather than engaging in broader economic interventions [13][14] Immigration and Labor Market - The closure of borders and a reduction in immigration are viewed as disinflationary factors, potentially alleviating shelter inflation caused by a fixed supply of housing [2][17] - The introduction of a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas aims to discourage companies from hiring foreign workers over American graduates, reflecting concerns about job replacement and labor market dynamics [17][18] - The discussion around H-1B visas includes the potential for auctioning these visas to better align with market dynamics, which could generate significant revenue [22][23] Government Spending and Inflation - There is a strong argument that cutting government spending is more critical for controlling inflation than further interest rate cuts, with current spending levels being a significant contributor to inflationary pressures [8] - The potential revenue from tariffs and visa fees raises questions about how to best utilize these funds, with suggestions including lowering tax rates rather than providing rebates [24][25]

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially recovering to around $3672 per ounce before dropping over $40 to a low of $3627.82, closing at $3644.22, a slight decline of 0.42% [1] - Silver showed relative strength, closing at $41.797 per ounce, up 0.35% [1] - In the Asian market, gold opened at $3643.64, fluctuated down to $3636.13, and later stabilized around $3647 [1] Influencing Factors - The primary factors affecting gold prices were the strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, with the dollar index reaching a high of 97.60 and closing at 97.36, up 0.34% [2] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.1 basis points to 3.566%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1.7 basis points to 4.108%, raising the holding costs of gold and diminishing its investment appeal [2] Commodity and Stock Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude closing at $62.93 per barrel, down 0.52%, and Brent crude at $66.98, down 1.34% [3] - US stock indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 123.92 points (0.27%), S&P 500 up 31.60 points (0.48%), and Nasdaq up 209.40 points (0.94%) [3] - European stock indices also rose, with Germany's DAX30 up 1.47%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.19%, and France's CAC40 up 0.87% [3] Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D closed down 0.43% at 823.55 CNY per gram, while silver T+D rose 0.21% to 9851.0 CNY per kilogram [4] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1128, indicating a depreciation of the yuan [4] Economic Data and Central Bank Policies - Recent US economic data showed mixed results, with initial jobless claims at 231,000, below expectations, while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index significantly exceeded forecasts at 23.2 [4] - The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 4.00% and reduced its quantitative tightening pace from £100 billion to £70 billion, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [5] - The Federal Reserve's new board member hinted at potential rate cuts in upcoming meetings, raising market speculation about the Fed's policy direction [5] Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical developments include the Trump administration's legal actions affecting the Federal Reserve's independence and the signing of a US-UK technology cooperation agreement [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to influence market sentiment [6] Gold Industry Insights - Switzerland's gold exports to the US plummeted by 99% in August due to a temporary tariff on gold bars, highlighting market panic [7] - Recent thefts involving gold in Hong Kong and Paris underscore the increasing value and security concerns surrounding gold [7] Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices due to Fed rate cut expectations being priced in, long-term demand for gold remains strong due to inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and diversification needs [8] - The market anticipates a potential shift in Fed policy post-2026, which could favor gold investments [8] Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show gold prices have retreated from recent highs, with the current trading range expected to be between $3635 and $3655 [10][11] - The market is advised to monitor key resistance and support levels closely as volatility persists [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices stabilized around $3,650 following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which hinted at further easing in the coming months, but did not meet the dovish expectations of investors [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains bullish but has noticeably cooled, as the Federal Reserve did not provide the dovish guidance needed to push gold prices higher [1] - The prediction of only one rate cut in 2026 exceeded market pricing, leading to increased yields and a stronger dollar [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - A reversal of the current trend is necessary to support gold prices in breaking through the $3,700 level [1] - Weak U.S. economic data could act as a catalyst for this reversal [1]

Core Insights - The international gold price reached $3682.2 per ounce on September 18, 2025, leading to a domestic gold recovery price of 822 yuan per gram [1] - The recovery price is uniform regardless of gold purity, affecting both high-purity and common gold [1] - Different types of gold jewelry have varying recovery prices based on their purity levels [2][3] Recovery Prices - 22K gold (91.6% purity) has a recovery price of 718 yuan per gram [2] - 18K gold (75% purity) and 14K gold (58.5% purity) have recovery prices of 592 yuan and 458 yuan per gram, respectively [3] Retail Prices - Retail prices for new gold jewelry vary significantly across brands, with Chow Sang Sang pricing gold at 1092 yuan per gram, targeting high-end customers [6] - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook set their prices at 1087 yuan per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao are slightly lower at 1086 yuan [7][8] - Some brands, like Zhou Silu, offer more competitive prices at 1048 yuan per gram for gold and 943 yuan for gold bars [10] - Lower-priced options are available at Sun Gold Store and Qilu Gold Store, with prices at 919 yuan and 906 yuan per gram, respectively [11] Investment Gold Prices - Investment gold bars sold by banks and specialized institutions have more realistic pricing, with Shanghai Gold Exchange quoting 835 yuan per gram [15] - Major banks offer gold bars at prices around 850 yuan, with Agricultural Bank at 850.20 yuan and Construction Bank at 852.10 yuan [15] - Higher prices are noted for investment gold bars from China Gold Investment Company at 873.50 yuan per gram [15] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a lack of trust in the Federal Reserve, with analysts suggesting that political and trade risks drive demand for gold [18] - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of high gold prices, indicating potential declines if global market conditions improve [18] - The domestic gold market appears less volatile compared to international markets, suggesting a more cautious consumer sentiment [18]

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers indicates that the Federal Reserve's policy is becoming "too loose" and emphasizes that the biggest risk facing the U.S. is inflation rather than the labor market [1] Group 1 - Summers expresses concern that if he were in Chairman Powell's position, his primary worry would be inflation issues [1] - He discusses the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, suggesting they are not driven by political pressure but questions whether they achieve the desired level of anti-inflation effectiveness [1]