钢材周报 2026 年 3 月 30 日 关注需求力度 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 投资咨询号：Z0016301 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 赵奕 从业资格号：F03153902 投资咨询号：Z0023788 ⚫ 宏观面：美国总统特朗普表示，将针对伊朗能源设施的 打击再推迟10天，至美国东部时间2026年4月6日晚8点。 特朗普同时否认急于同伊朗达成协议，并表示美国对伊 朗的军事行动正在继续，坚称是伊朗方面寻求重启谈 判。中钢协：3月中旬，重点统计钢铁企业粗钢平均日 产202.7万吨，日产环比增长0.8%；钢材库存量1791万 吨，环比上一旬增长0.6%，比上月同旬下降1.2%，比去 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of the bond market remains on domestic factors, with fundamentals and liquidity being the primary principles. External changes will ultimately affect the judgment through the framework [1][14] - With the desensitization of various assets, market trends are returning to their own logics, and the volatility of financial assets has converged [15] - Stagflation concerns will not be the biggest negative factor for the bond market this year, and it depends on whether it affects monetary policy decisions [17] - The economic data at the beginning of the year exceeded expectations, but some were related to the Spring Festival shift, and there are still structural problems. More data is needed to confirm a trend improvement [17] - In the short - term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield oscillating between 1.76% - 1.88%, and the T main contract between 108 - 108.4. The key time window is advanced to around May, and the stabilization of the external situation may be the trigger for the narrative to shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [2][17] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Before the Spring Festival: Price Recovery and Surge - From the beginning of the year to nearly two months after the Spring Festival, the bond market had a smooth recovery. It was not driven by a single pre - foreseeable major positive factor but by the gradual accumulation of surrounding positives [6] - After the New Year's Day holiday, the market sentiment was not good. The "redemption new rule" did not bring significant gains, and the bond market dived due to the lower - than - expected central bank bond - buying scale in December. Subsequently, the A - share market's overheating was suppressed by regulatory measures, which benefited the bond market. However, it was difficult to break through the upper limit of the T main contract's shock range of 108.15, and the 10Y yield remained around 1.83% [6] - The breakthrough came when risk assets collectively dived. The nomination of Warsh as the new Fed Chairman candidate with a hawkish policy stance impacted most major asset classes. The bond market, with its domestic - oriented pricing, completed the breakthrough of key points [7] 3.1.2 March: From Safe - Haven to Inflation Concerns - The Middle East conflict broke the previous narrative of the bond market. The market's dominant logic shifted from simple safe - haven considerations to more complex inflation and subsequent liquidity crisis narratives [13] - After the conflict, most assets except the US dollar and oil prices fell. The continuous high oil prices raised the inflation center and affected liquidity expectations, such as the continuous decline in the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in June [13] 3.2 Summary and Outlook - The bond market is highly sensitive to the macro - environment, indicating the importance of the traditional framework [14] - Future bond market focus remains on domestic factors. It is more important to adhere to the framework of fundamentals and liquidity rather than tracking geopolitical situations [14] - Stagflation concerns will not be the biggest negative for the bond market this year, and it depends on whether it affects monetary policy decisions [17] - The economic data at the beginning of the year exceeded expectations, but more data is needed to confirm a trend improvement [17] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.76% - 1.88% and the T main contract in the range of 108 - 108.4. The key time window is advanced to around May, and the stabilization of the external situation may be the trigger for the narrative shift [17] 3.3 Stagflation: Does It Necessarily Destroy Everything? 3.3.1 2021: A Different Stagflation Cycle - In 2021, due to the low - base effect of the previous year's economic data and overseas fiscal stimulus, it was a stagflation year. However, the bond market did not face significant pressure, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield showed a downward trend [19][20] - The inflation in 2021 was not a result of systematic supply - demand mismatch, so the monetary policy favored stable growth. The bond market was more likely to remain volatile until the inflation problem was resolved [22] 3.3.2 How to View the Current Inflation Pressure? - The current inflation pressure is different from that in 2011. The current supply - demand contradiction is on both sides, and the monetary policy will not be tightened systematically as in 2011 [24] - The current approach to inflation is similar to that in 2021. In 2021, administrative intervention was used to control commodity prices, and the spill - over effect on the equity market was limited [24][25] 3.3.3 Current Inflation Repair - Due to the low - base effect in the first half of 2025, the pressure for prices to turn positive is not high. The Middle East conflict may advance the inflation inflection point to April. After the inflection point, it is necessary to consider whether the demand side can provide support and the possibility of PPI - CPI divergence [28] - The current price recovery is not mainly due to the improvement of domestic demand. The improvement in inflation data is limited, and the price increase in PPI is mainly concentrated in the mid - upstream, with insufficient downstream transmission [30] 3.4 Pay Attention to the Opportunity of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut in the Second Quarter 3.4.1 Sufficient and Stable Liquidity in the First Quarter - In the first quarter, the central bank formed a medium - and long - term liquidity injection system, and the money market maintained stable and sufficient liquidity without the implementation of total - volume tools, which supported the bond market [32] 3.4.2 Key Policy Statements in Q1 - At the beginning of the year, structural tools were implemented, including adjusting the interest rates of structural tools, merging and increasing the amount of existing tools, and expanding the scope of support. The central bank also clarified the factors affecting bond trading operations [34] - The central bank's report on the fourth - quarter monetary policy in 2025 addressed the issue of deposit transfer. It pointed out that the overall liquidity remained stable, and the impact on a single asset market was limited, but some banks might face liability - side pressure [35] 3.4.3 Opportunity of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut in the Second Quarter - The central bank is more concerned about the demand - side pressure. The current inflation is mainly due to the base effect and external shocks, and the economic data lacks trend support. Historically, non - demand - driven inflation does not lead to a change in the direction of monetary policy [36] - Although the reserve requirement ratio is approaching the 5% lower limit, it may not be a problem. With the improvement of the macro - prudential assessment system, the importance of the 5% lower limit is decreasing [47] - The net回笼 of funds through repurchase in March may lead to the expectation of using reserve requirement ratio cuts to inject long - term liquidity. Reserve requirement ratio cuts have advantages in terms of cost, signal effect, and saving interest - rate cut space [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The medium - term view on the government bond futures market is to maintain an overall outlook of fluctuating with a bearish bias due to factors such as the relatively restrained central bank monetary policy, changing inflation expectations, the orientation of medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and the inability to falsify policy expectations [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - This week, the ultra - long end of the government bond futures market has recovered, while the short - and medium - term ends have remained basically unchanged, which is in line with the previous judgment of fluctuations at the ultra - long end and stagnation at the short end. The market characteristics show that short - term stability coexists with long - term fluctuations, reflecting the game between short - term liquidity easing and long - term inflation and economic recovery expectations. The term spread has widened, and the yield curve shows a steepening trend [3][5] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not elaborated in the provided content 3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 0.42%, foreign capital decreased by 3.15%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 3.4%. In terms of weekly change: private funds decreased by 1.92%, foreign capital decreased by 5.92%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 4.94% [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Interest - rate bonds: The rating is based on the net price increase or decrease of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. There are three ratings including "Overweight" (interest rate risk decreases and net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (interest rate risk is stable and net price has slight fluctuations), and "Underweight" (interest rate risk increases and net price has room to fall) [69][73] - Credit bonds: The rating is based on the net price increase or decrease of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings are "Overweight" (credit risk decreases and net price has room to rise), "Neutral" (credit risk is stable and net price has slight fluctuations), and "Underweight" (credit risk increases and net price has room to fall) [69] - Convertible bonds: The rating is based on the increase or decrease of the convertible bond price relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings are "Overweight" (convertible bond performance is stronger than the CSI Convertible Bond Index), "Neutral" (convertible bond performance is the same as the CSI Convertible Bond Index), and "Underweight" (convertible bond performance is weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index) [70] Core Viewpoints - The incremental renewal of MLF in March released two positive meanings. First, the reduction in 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements was likely due to commercial bank demand. Second, after considering the negative externalities of high oil prices, the central bank still chose a relatively loose monetary policy [1][3][4] - The report is still optimistic about the continued looseness of inter - bank liquidity and the future trends of cash assets such as repurchase agreements, inter - bank certificates of deposit, short - term interest rates, short - term credit, and ABS [5] 3. March MLF Incremental Renewal's Two Positive Meanings - The central bank has constructed short - term, medium - term, and long - term quantitative monetary policy toolkits. Long - term tools include reserve requirement ratio cuts and treasury bond trading, medium - term tools include MLF, repurchase agreements, and various structural tools, and short - term tools include 7 - day open - market repurchase agreements and overnight repurchase agreements [2][12] - The reduction in 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements in March was likely due to commercial bank demand. In March, the 3M - term repurchase agreement decreased by 200 billion yuan, the 6M - term by 100 billion yuan, and in February, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds decreased by 50 billion yuan. However, the 5 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in March showed that the central bank's supportive attitude remained unchanged, as commercial banks had a higher acceptance of 1 - year MLF funds and less demand for 3M - and 6M - term repurchase agreements [3][12] - After considering the negative externalities of high oil prices, the central bank still chose a relatively loose monetary policy. High oil prices boosted domestic PPI and CPI, but the domestic price increase might be due to imported inflation. The incremental renewal of MLF released this policy signal. Also, on March 23, the NDRC adjusted domestic refined oil prices, indicating that macro - policies considered the negative externalities of high oil prices [4][13] 2. Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: Near the end of the quarter, the central bank increased its repurchase agreement injections. From March 23 to 27, the net injection of repurchase agreements was 231.9 billion yuan [17] - Medium - and long - term liquidity: The central bank's net MLF injection was 5 billion yuan [17] 2.2 Institutional Funding Supply and Demand - Funding supply (lenders): Near the end of the quarter, the net lending of large - scale banks decreased significantly [21] - Funding demand (borrowers): The absolute financing balance was high, while the relative leverage ratio was low [28] 2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction - Funding volume and price: The volume was abundant and the price was stable [42] - Funding sentiment index: The market was relatively relaxed [45] 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The cost of interest rate swaps fluctuated slightly, and the spread between CDs and IRS remained low [50] 3. Government Bonds 3.1 Next Week's Net Government Bond Payment: A Significant Decrease - In the past week, the total net government bond payment was 60.64 billion yuan, and in the next week, it is expected to be 1.5 billion yuan [51] 3.2 Government Bond Maturity Structure - As of March 27, the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds (over 10 years) in government bond issuance has changed over time. The issuance of treasury bonds and local government bonds also has different maturity structures [53][56][57] 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 4.1 Absolute Yield - The SHIBOR yield curve and the AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield curve changed slightly in the past week [61] 4.2 Issuance and Outstanding Balance - As of March 27, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 772 billion yuan, with different proportions for different maturities. The total outstanding balance was 1,818.856 billion yuan, also with different maturity distributions [64][65] 4.3 Relative Valuation - The spreads of inter - bank certificates of deposit, such as the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007, DR007, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield, changed slightly, and their quantiles since 2020 are different [67]

分组1 - The current market sentiment leans towards a likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Fed, despite some analysts arguing for a potential cut based on rising household delinquencies, which reached 4.8% [2] - The Fed's monetary policy will be influenced by the ongoing war and its economic implications, with a focus on inflation risks stemming from oil price shocks and supply constraints [4][5] - Higher oil prices are expected to exert upward pressure on inflation while simultaneously posing risks to economic growth and employment, necessitating careful monitoring by the Fed [5][7] 分组2 - The Fed has been dealing with inflation above its target for five consecutive years, and firms are facing margin pressures due to higher tariffs and oil prices [6] - The labor market is currently balanced but at a low hiring rate, indicating that any economic shock could disrupt this balance, prompting the Fed to reassess its policies [8] - The Fed is expected to maintain its current interest rates while closely monitoring inflation expectations and other economic indicators to inform future decisions [9][10] 分组3 - The Fed utilizes various data sources, including surveys and advisory councils, to gauge real-time economic conditions and firm responses to energy price changes [14][16] - The Fed's approach includes both hard data and forward-looking indicators, allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of economic trends rather than relying solely on historical data [17]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The central bank maintains a supportive and loose monetary policy with abundant liquidity, which supports the demand for national bonds. The Ministry of Finance increases spending on people's livelihoods and consumption and issues ultra - long - term special national bonds to stimulate the economy. However, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, increasing the expectation of imported inflation and suppressing the bond market sentiment. There is a divergence between the decline of short - term yields and the rise of long - term yields, and the yield curve steepens, putting pressure on prices. The trading advice is to focus on short - term range - bound trading opportunities and strictly control position risks [2] Group 3: Data Summaries 1. Yield and Interest Rate - Graphs show the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y national bond yields from 2024/06 to 2025/12, deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day, and 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/12 [3] 2. Term Spread - Graphs present the trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y national bond term spreads from 2024/06 to 2025/12 [3] 3. Trading Volume - Graphs display the trading volume trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures from 2024/06 to 2025/12 [6] 4. Basis - Graphs show the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures' current - quarter contracts [7][8][9][11] 5. Inter - period Spread - Graphs present the inter - period spread trends (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures [14][16] 6. Cross - variety Spread - Graphs show the cross - variety spread trends of TS*4 - T from 2024/06 to 2025/12 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/12 [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2606 contract rising 0.08% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. Overseas, the yields of US, German, and Japanese 10Y treasury bonds all increased. Looking ahead, there is still room for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Financial market volatility has increased, which still provides some support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. However, with the recovery of price data, the sharp rise in commodity prices such as crude oil, and the Fed's hawkish stance, long - term treasury bond futures prices are expected to continue to face pressure [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of TS2606, TS2609, TF2606, TF2609, T2606, T2609, TL2606, and TL2609 all rose, with increases of 0.02%, 0.02%, 0.06%, 0.07%, 0.08%, 0.07%, 0.22%, and 0.25% respectively. The trading volumes were 29546, 249, 54741, 1881, 61096, 2343, 76447, and 5706 respectively, and the changes in positions were - 1818, 26, - 2552, 170, 1106, 287, 1634, and - 169 respectively [2] - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 0.3bp, DR007 interest rate rose 0.71bp, and GC007 interest rate rose 0bp [2] - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 0.84bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 43.43bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 9bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield rose 5bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1.9bp [2] 3.3 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 26, the central bank carried out 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 211 billion yuan [3] - **International Events**: US President Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15; he postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days; Iran rejected the US cease - fire proposal [3] - **Budget Information**: In 2026, the central budget has 49 new specific items, and the proportion of performance target disclosure of each department will not be less than 60% [3] - **Economic Forecast**: The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. The US economic growth rate will slow from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the eurozone economic growth rate will drop to 0.8% in 2026 and rebound to 1.2% in 2027 [3] - **Korean Treasury Bond Repurchase**: The Korean Ministry of Finance will repurchase 5 trillion won (about $3.3 billion) of treasury bonds in two batches [3] 3.4 Industry Information - **Money Market Interest Rates**: On March 26, most money market interest rates rose. The 1 - day silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted average interest rate was flat at 1.3205%, the 7 - day interest rate dropped 0.09bp to 1.4437%, and the 14 - day interest rate dropped 0.55bp to 1.4952%. The 1 - day silver - deposit inter - bank lending weighted average interest rate rose 0.11bp to 1.3368%, the 7 - day interest rate rose 1.96bp to 1.483%, and the 14 - day interest rate dropped 1.93bp to 1.5379% [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US Treasury bond yields rose collectively. The 2 - year yield rose 10.67bp to 3.988%, the 3 - year yield rose 10.52bp to 3.987%, the 5 - year yield rose 11.62bp to 4.093%, the 10 - year yield rose 8.34bp to 4.414%, and the 30 - year yield rose 3.68bp to 4.935% [3] 3.5 Comment and Strategy - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net investment of 211 billion yuan, and the MLF was increased for 13 consecutive months. Shibor showed mixed trends, and the capital market remained relatively stable. The Middle East situation was tense, pushing up inflation expectations and increasing financial market volatility. The main economic indicators showed an obvious recovery, and the national economy had a good start. The central bank will continue to use various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity. There is still room for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Short - term treasury bond futures prices are still supported, while long - term treasury bond futures prices are expected to face pressure [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a low opening followed by a slight upward trend, with significant performance from sectors such as batteries, energy metals, non-ferrous metals, and chemical pharmaceuticals, while sectors like electricity, insurance, banking, and aerospace equipment showed weaker performance [3][4][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 16.08 times and 46.21 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][14]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 18,640 billion, which is above the median of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [4][14]. - Key market pressures stem from overseas factors, particularly the potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, which could lead to rising oil prices and increased global stagflation pressures [4][14]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies are becoming clearer, providing a solid support base for the market, with the central bank committing to maintaining adequate liquidity through various tools [4][14]. - The report suggests that investors should closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments, with a short-term focus on investment opportunities in batteries, energy metals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors [4][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On March 27, the A-share market opened low but rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3,924 points. The market showed a general upward trend throughout the day, with over 80% of stocks rising, particularly in energy metals, chemical pharmaceuticals, and medical services [8][10]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,913.72 points, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,760.37 points, up 1.13% [8][10]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index will likely maintain a fluctuating trend, advising investors to pay attention to macroeconomic indicators and policy changes [4][14]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors such as batteries, energy metals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment [4][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the precious metals market may face a "headwind" environment. Before the Middle - East geopolitical situation becomes clear, the core variables affecting the trend are still oil prices and monetary policy expectations. Prices are expected to oscillate repeatedly at high levels. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short - term. [7] - In the long - term, the deep adjustment of precious metals prices does not mean the end of the "bull market". The long - term supporting factors (geopolitical uncertainty, huge US debt, de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases, etc.) remain strong. As factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metals market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the long - term layout opportunity during this deep adjustment. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On March 26, 2026, London gold spot was at $4457.21 per ounce, down 2.0% from March 25; London silver spot was at $70.02 per ounce, down 4.3%. COMEX gold was at $4452.20 per ounce, down 2.1%; COMEX silver was at $70.16 per ounce, down 4.3%. AU2604 was at 992.96 yuan per gram, down 1.8%; AG2604 was at 17519.00 yuan per kilogram, down 3.6%. AU (T + D) was at 992.50 yuan per gram, down 1.8%; AG (T + D) was at 17459.00 yuan per kilogram, down 3.5%. [5] - The price differences and their changes: For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference on March 26 was - 0.46 yuan per gram, with a 31.4% increase from March 25. [5] 3.2 Position Data - As of March 25, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1052.42 tons, down 0.05% from March 24; the silver ETF - SLV was 15513.67372 tons, with no change. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 215961 contracts, up 0.24%; non - commercial short positions were 56092 contracts, up 7.22%; non - commercial net long positions were 159869 contracts, down 2.00%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 31125 contracts, down 6.55%; non - commercial short positions were 9244 contracts, up 5.91%; non - commercial net long positions were 21881 contracts, down 10.97%. [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - On March 26, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 106743.00 kilograms, with no change from March 25; SHFE silver inventory was 370299.00 kilograms, down 1.54%. COMEX gold inventory on March 25 was 31945633 troy ounces, down 0.22% from March 24; COMEX silver inventory was 328841370 troy ounces, down 0.79%. [5] 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On March 26, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.91, up 0.21% from March 25. The US dollar index on March 25 was 99.63, up 0.41% from March 24. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.84%, down 1.54%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, down 1.37%. The VIX was 25.33, down 6.01%; the S&P 500 was 6591.90, up 0.54%; NYWEX crude oil was $91.29, up 3.28%. [5] 3.5 Market Review - On March 26, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.28% to 995.98 yuan per gram; the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.85% to 17472 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.6 Impact Analysis - Contradictory news about the US - Iran negotiation filled the market. After a phased rebound and repair, the precious metals market's main line returned to the game between oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policies. [6] - The US is still deploying more military forces to the Middle East, and the market is worried that the US may soon escalate military actions against Iran. High oil prices have increased the market's attention to the Fed's possible interest rate hikes this year. The market currently expects the probability of the Fed's interest rate hikes this year to be around 50%. The US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have strengthened again, putting pressure on precious metals prices. [6] - The rebound and repair of precious metals prices in the past two months have reached a phased pressure level. Since there is still no clear upward driver for precious metals prices in the short - term, the bears have the upper hand in the long - short game, suppressing the prices. [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market dynamics and macroeconomic conditions in China for 2026, focusing on the impact of monetary policy and economic recovery trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Recovery and Challenges** - The economy showed unexpected recovery in January-February 2026, driven by external demand, infrastructure investment, and the timing of the Spring Festival. However, domestic demand recovery remains slow, with real estate investment down 11.1% year-on-year. The second quarter may face pressure from a "overdraft effect" following this initial recovery [3][4][5]. 2. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - Monetary policy is expected to remain stable and slightly accommodative, shifting focus from overall easing to structural precision support. There are no conditions for a trend tightening in the second quarter, as liquidity in the banking system is expected to remain ample [4][6]. 3. **Bond Market Adjustments** - Recent adjustments in the bond market are seen as technical clean-ups rather than fundamental turning points. The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated between 1.77% and 1.90%, indicating that core logic remains intact despite the steepening yield curve [6][7]. 4. **Investment Strategies** - Recommendations include focusing on high-grade, short-duration bonds as a base, utilizing curve convexity to capture carry-and-roll-down returns. The strategy for the second quarter leans towards moderate leverage on the short end while waiting for right-side signals on the long end [6][10]. 5. **Credit Bonds Characteristics** - Credit bonds are exhibiting "rate-driven" characteristics, with spreads at historically low levels. The recommendation is to avoid low-grade credit risks due to insufficient compensation for credit risk in the current environment [6][10]. 6. **Market Sentiment and Signals** - The current market adjustment is primarily driven by trading structure changes rather than fundamental shifts. Key signals to watch for market stabilization include the pace of long-end rate increases slowing down and the return of trading volume to reasonable levels [7][8]. 7. **Future Economic Data and Policy Expectations** - The strength of economic data in early 2026 may lead to a "overdraft effect" in the second quarter, with potential implications for monetary policy. The consensus is that maintaining a moderately accommodative stance is essential for supporting the nascent economic recovery [5][11]. 8. **Investment Framework Adjustments** - Investors are advised to enhance technical analysis and model building, focusing on capturing market expectations and adjusting strategies based on historical cycles rather than linear extrapolation from past experiences [13][14]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The records emphasize the importance of understanding the broader historical context of the bond market and adapting investment strategies accordingly. Investors should be patient and maintain a long-term perspective to navigate the complexities of the current market environment [14].