广发期货： 当前美国经济运行和就业市场持续结构性分化但总体衰退风险不大，美联储未来在衡量就业的通胀目标 问题上仍有分歧态度趋于谨慎，但市场对货政宽松预期在"影子主席"言论叠加美联储独立性受到威胁影 响下可能升温，资金情绪的影响还有贸易和地缘风险的扰动或使金价中长期上涨空间可观。短期市场或 消化美国就业市场重新回到低供应+低增长的新平衡市场风险偏好改善，因此金价上涨动能受到抑制， 突破前高的动能仍需酝酿，后续关注美国经济数据及美联储官员表态对市场情绪扰动，单边以回调后再 买入思路为主。 期货公司观点 携多年历史性上涨的强劲动能，黄金市场平稳迈入2026年，但市场呈现出一组耐人寻味的反差：尽管涨 势如虹，整体参与度却始终保持低迷。值得关注的是，即便2024至2025年间金价屡屡突破历史纪录，市 场对其"超买"的评判不绝于耳，却鲜有"超持"的论断出现。这一关键差异，恰恰揭示了本轮黄金行情的 核心属性——机构持仓仍存在显著扩张空间，说明当前涨势并非短期投机资金炒作的结果，而是由尚未 触及峰值的结构性需求所主导，为行情的持续性奠定了坚实基础。 回溯2024-2025年的金价上行周期，政策层面的不确定性堪称核心驱动力。进 ...

智通财经APP获悉，韩国央行周四表示，将对明年进一步降息保持开放态度，同时针对韩元走弱和房价 上涨带来的金融稳定风险提高警惕。 从金融稳定的角度来看，韩国央行指出了与首尔及周边地区房价上涨以及家庭债务相关的持续风险，并 警告称，金融失衡的积累需要密切监测。 央行还提到了外汇市场波动加剧的问题，表示将加强监控，并随时准备在出现过度波动或羊群效应时实 施市场稳定措施。此外，韩国央行表示将就金融稳定事务与政府进行密切协调，同时继续改进贷款工具 和流动性供应。 根据其周四发布的 2026 年货币政策声明，韩国央行表示，任何关于进一步宽松的决定都将取决于对通 胀、经济增长以及不断变化的金融稳定风险的全面评估。 尽管通胀料将稳定在央行目标附近，但政策制定者警告称，受汇率走高和国内消费复苏影响，通胀的上 行压力可能比预期更强劲。预计经济增长将朝着潜在速度改善，但仍受到全球和国内重大不确定性的影 响。 在11月的政策会议上，韩国央行将基准利率维持在2.5%不变。六位委员就是否有必要在未来三个月内 进一步放松政策产生了分歧，这表明进一步降息的意愿较前一次会议有所减弱。 12 月对经济学家的调查显示，受访者将下一次降息的时间预期 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on market conditions and fundamentals [5][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 26 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan on the day. Beijing optimized real estate policies, and the central bank's monetary policy meeting suggested maintaining a loose policy. It is expected that bond futures still face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Stocks - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures both rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also beneficial to precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise, and investors can wait and see for long - entry opportunities [10][11] Industrial Metals - **Steel Products**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The demand for rebar is expected to decline in the long - term due to the real estate downturn, and the market will enter the off - season. Although the supply pressure has eased, the inventory is higher than last year. It is expected that prices will continue to oscillate weakly, and investors can consider short - selling at high levels during rebounds [12] - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in iron water output, an increase in imports and a continuous rise in port inventory. Technically, it may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Coking coal production has decreased, while demand from downstream coke enterprises has increased. Coke procurement prices have been lowered for the third time, and steel mills' demand for coke has weakened. Technically, they may continue to rebound in the short - term, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [15] - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined slightly. Manganese ore supply has changed, and ferroalloy production has been falling. Although the short - term oversupply has slightly weakened, the overall pressure remains. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels after the spot loss widens [17][18] - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures declined. The macro - economic situation is complex, and the fundamentals of copper remain in tight balance. Although there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, there is short - term pressure from weak global industrial demand and the holiday season. Copper prices are expected to remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [39][40] - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures declined. Alumina is in oversupply, while the supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable. Demand is average, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [42] - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures declined. Zinc concentrate processing fees are under pressure, and refined zinc production is decreasing. Demand from downstream industries is weak, and LME zinc inventory has increased. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [44] - **Lead**: The previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. Some primary lead enterprises are under maintenance, and some secondary lead enterprises have resumed production. Consumption has entered the off - season. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly within a range [45] - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is showing some resilience. Refined tin inventory is decreasing, and tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [47] - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. Indonesia's nickel policy has changed, and the cost is expected to rise. However, stainless steel is in the off - season, demand is weak, and primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. Investors should pay attention to Indonesia's policies [48][49] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. CFTC data shows that US funds reduced their net short positions. There are uncertainties in the crude oil market due to various factors. Currently, Brent crude oil prices are stable near the $60 mark, and investors are advised to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [19][20] - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The cost - end crude oil price is stable, which helps to stabilize fuel oil prices. Fuel oil has hit new lows this year, and there is a large rebound space. Investors can wait and see [21][22] Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed a slight rebound, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao was mostly stable. Polyolefin production enterprises are expected to be stable with minor fluctuations. The supply pressure of standard products may ease slightly, but downstream demand is expected to decline. In the short - term, the market is still in a negative feedback stage, and investors can look for long - entry opportunities [23][24][25] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. It is supported by cost and demand in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate. Investors need to pay attention to changes in the supply and demand sides [26][27] - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The market is expected to experience a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and prices may oscillate. Supply is affected by domestic and overseas factors, and demand is weak. Inventory is increasing [28][29] - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The inventory has decreased slightly [30] - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly this week. Supply is expected to remain stable, demand is expected to increase slightly, and industry profits have recovered slightly [31][32] - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread has been repaired, and the short - process profit has improved. Supply and demand have improved, and cost - end oil prices may have a short - term rebound. PX is expected to adjust strongly in the short - term, and investors can look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [33] - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply has decreased, demand has been supported, and exports have increased. Processing fees have declined, and inventory is at a low level. PTA is expected to have good medium - and long - term supply and demand, and investors can follow the cost - end to participate at low levels [34] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply pressure remains due to new production and restarts, and port inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and investors can participate in a range - bound manner [35] - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Supply has declined but remains at a relatively high level, demand support has weakened, and cost - end drive has increased. Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following raw material prices [36] - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Processing fees have declined, supply has decreased slightly, and exports have increased. It is expected to oscillate following the cost - end [37] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. Inventory has decreased, and prices may be supported in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [38] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and oil futures declined. Brazilian soybean planting is almost complete, and the domestic soybean supply is relatively loose. The demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can look for long - entry opportunities for soybean meal at the low - cost support level and for soybean oil through long - call options at the low - level range [50][51] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil was basically flat. The production in December decreased, and the export situation was mixed. China's palm oil imports increased in November, and the inventory is at the middle level in the past seven years. Investors are advised to wait and see [52][53] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China's rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports in November showed different trends. Rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at different levels in the past seven years. Investors are advised to wait and see [54][55] - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated strongly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting policy will reduce the sown area. Although domestic cotton production is high, the inventory accumulation is less than expected. Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [56][58][59] - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. China's sugar imports in November decreased year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar production and exports showed different trends. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly. After the sharp rebound, the upward space may be limited, and investors are advised to wait and see [60][61][62] - **Apples**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. Apple prices are expected to run strongly [63][64] - **Hogs**: The previous trading day, hog futures rose. The northern hog market is expected to strengthen, and the southern market is stable. The supply and demand situation is complex, and investors are advised to wait and see [64][66] - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in December, but the demand is weak. The supply - side improvement is offset by weak demand. Investors are advised to wait and see [67][68] - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The northern port corn inventory is increasing, and the demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It may follow the corn market [69][70][71]

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。中长期来看，货币政策坚持适度宽松的基调，明年货币政 策环境偏宽松，目前国债到期收益率所隐含的降息预期较弱，因此国债 ...

| | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1014.680 | 0.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 17609 | +1168.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 186,798.00 | -13095.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 11,811.00 | -4436.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 351,301.00 | +74883.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,367,254.00 | +137097.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 93711 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 881,949 | -17714↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1007.69 | 0.82↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 17,348.00 | 1029.00↑ | | | 沪金主 ...

光大期货：黄金仍是资产的重要配置选项 国信期货表示，尽管美国三季度经济增速创两年来最快，但消费者信心连续五个月走低，反映经济内部 存在分化。就业市场数据表现温和，而政策层面信息更为关键：特朗普关于"不同意其观点者不会成为 美联储主席"的言论，凸显了政治因素对货币政策独立性的潜在影响；下任主席热门候选人哈塞特再次 释放鸽派信号，称"美联储在降息问题上远落后于形势"；同时，美财长提议讨论调整通胀目标区间，可 能为长期维持更宽松政策环境提供空间。整体而言，市场对2026年降息的预期持续，且特朗普计划明年 初任命新主席的消息强化了货币政策可能趋于宽松的叙事，这为贵金属提供了核心的宏观支撑。展望后 市，贵金属板块短期仍有望维持偏强走势，但需警惕价格在连续大幅上涨后波动性显著加剧的风险。 ByteTree的首席信息官兼创始人查理·莫里斯（Charlie Morris）表示，虽然比特币、人工智能和科技行业 可能会在2026年后退一步，但黄金的牛市仍有持续的空间，而加密货币的疲软可能会增加白银的实力。 在莫里斯看来，印钞将导致持续的通货膨胀，这也带来了对贵金属和加密货币的需求。而对于黄金和比 特币的关系，莫里斯认为，两者并非 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开拓进取 扫码关注宝城期货官方 ...

全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust持仓增加12.02吨，至1064.56吨，为2022年6月以来新高，这不仅 是10月17日以来最大单日增幅，也印证了央行购金需求和避险资金流入的强劲势头。 全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust单日增持超533吨，创近两年最大增幅，总持仓达16599.25吨， 显示强劲买入意愿。 特朗普表示将扣押委内瑞拉附近船只的石油，甚至警告委内瑞拉总统马杜罗这是其"最后机会"。这一举 动被委内瑞拉斥为"海盗行径"，其外交部长在新闻发布会上宣读公报，谴责美国单边制裁对地区和国际 法的践踏。委内瑞拉方面指出，美国在加勒比地区发动的28起武装行动已造成104人死亡，并导致400万 桶原油无法正常运输。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 当前美国经济运行和就业市场持续结构性分化但总体衰退风险不大，美联储未来在衡量就业的通胀目标 问题上仍有分歧态度趋于谨慎，但市场对货政宽松预期在"影子主席"言论叠加美联储独立性受到威胁影 响下可能升温，资金情绪的影响还有贸易和地缘风险的扰动或使金价中长期上涨空间可观。短期市场或 消化美国就业市场重新回到低供应+低增长的新平衡市场风 ...

研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 1014.240 | 13.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 16441 | +231.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 199,893.00 | | -2397.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 16,247.00 | -1180.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 276,418.00 | | -2375.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,230,157.00 | -474555.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 93711 | | 1995↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 899,663 | -1805↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 1006.87 | | 14 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the historical trend of deposit migration, highlighting a shift from resident fixed deposits to non-bank and corporate demand deposits, driven by a loose monetary policy environment and the recovery of the real economy [4][12] - The report identifies two significant periods of deposit migration in the past 20 years, occurring from January 2009 to August 2011 and from March 2015 to January 2018, where the proportion of resident fixed deposits decreased significantly [12][35] - Future deposit migration trends will depend on the pace of economic recovery, with current indicators showing initial signs of deposit migration as resident demand deposits and M1 growth rates increase [4][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Decline in Resident Fixed Deposit Proportion - Recent months have seen a decline in resident fixed deposits, with a corresponding increase in non-bank deposits, indicating a potential shift in deposit behavior [4][10] - As of November 2025, the proportion of resident fixed deposits is 36.98%, down 0.56 percentage points from the peak in April 2025, while non-bank deposits have increased by 1.13 percentage points to 10.68% [10][11] Section 2: Historical Review of Deposit Migration - The report reviews the historical context of deposit migration, noting two major phases: the first from January 2009 to August 2011, and the second from March 2015 to January 2018, where fixed deposit proportions fell significantly [12][35] - During these periods, the share of corporate demand deposits and non-bank deposits increased markedly, indicating a structural shift in deposit behavior [21][35] Section 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of deposit migration is contingent on the recovery of the real economy, with current monetary policy supporting a favorable environment for such shifts [4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and the impact of monetary policy on deposit behavior, suggesting that the current trends may lead to sustained changes in deposit structures [4][12]