Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [4] Core Insights - The trend of credit "balance sheet reduction" is accelerating, with significant changes in total volume, structure, institutions, and pace observed in the first five months of the year [9][18] - The effective credit demand remains weak, leading to a strong policy-driven effect on credit issuance, particularly among small and medium-sized banks [9][10] - The loan interest rate decline has significantly slowed down, indicating an improvement in the supply-demand relationship for credit [14][18] Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of Credit Issuance This Year - The total amount of new loans in Q1 was nearly 10 trillion, with a year-on-year increase, but the monthly new loans in April and May hit historical lows [9][10] - The structure of credit issuance shows a rise in short-term loans for enterprises while long-term loans are declining, indicating a credit rush phenomenon during the "opening red" period [9][10] - Policy banks are expected to maintain a higher loan issuance rate compared to commercial banks, which are experiencing a more pronounced reduction in credit [10][12] 2. Characteristics of Deposit Growth This Year - M2 growth remains high at 8%, but signs of fund circulation are emerging, with banks engaging in high-cost interbank borrowing while offering low rates for repurchase agreements [19][20] - The deposit generation rate from loans is weak, with a historical low gap between corporate loans and deposits [25][26] - The average duration of deposits is declining as banks adjust their liability structures to mitigate interest rate risks [26][29] 3. Market Implications - The ongoing trend of credit "balance sheet reduction" suggests a friendly monetary environment, with low funding rates expected to persist [30][33] - The emergence of fund circulation phenomena necessitates attention to potential marginal adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank [30][29] - The anticipated limited downward adjustment in LPR and loan rates in the second half of the year may lead to an increase in loan spreads despite a decrease in LPR [33][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may show an inverted "N" shape. Before the introduction of pro - growth policies, bond yields will generally continue to decline in a volatile manner. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds when the yield is between 1.65% - 1.7%, and also pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short - term inter - bank certificates of deposit [2][6][26]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Volatility for a Long Time - The typical feature of the bond market this year is to quickly complete the market trend and then have a long - term narrow - range oscillation. After an unexpected event occurs, the bond market will quickly complete the market trend again. In this market, it is difficult to trade interest - rate bonds, and the mainstream way to make money in the bond market is to explore credit - based coupon assets [5][12]. - The bond market is oscillating because its valuation is relatively high, making it difficult to price general positive information. Since 2020, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 3.15% at the beginning of 2020 to 1.67% on May 30 this year, a cumulative decline of more than 140bps. From the perspective of stock - bond attractiveness, as of May this year, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 3.5%, at a historical high, while the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.7%, which is not conducive to the trend - based inflow of funds into the bond market [5][16]. 3.2 Possible Marginal Changes in the Bond Market - **Repeated Sino - US trade frictions**: The bond market will gradually become desensitized to trade - friction information. Even if the Sino - US trade friction is completely eased, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.7% may be close to the upper limit of the current adjustment [5][6][19]. - **Price changes of short - term funds and bond varieties**: The allocation cost - effectiveness of inter - bank certificates of deposit with a yield above 1.7% may have emerged. The upward constraint on capital prices is the need for a relatively loose liquidity environment to maintain asset - price expectations and confidence stability. The downward constraint is the concern about "fund idling". The current capital price is close to the upper limit of the range, and the allocation value of inter - bank certificates of deposit with an interest rate above 1.7% has emerged [6][21][23]. - **The bond market is not very sensitive to fundamental changes**: For a product with a relatively high valuation, greater marginal changes in the fundamentals are required to drive its valuation up. The fundamentals have been relatively resilient this year, so the bond market is not sensitive to them. Pro - growth policies will mainly focus on domestic fundamental changes, and bond yields will first decline and then rebound [6][26].

博弈资金进一步转松？ 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 刚性的资金、盘整的债市 利率专题 4 月以来，资金面整体呈现"供需结构改善、价格相对稳定"的状态，在市 场对于资金面季节性转松的期待中，公开市场投放确实出现了改善，但资金价格 仍在政策利率上方窄幅震荡。 而受制于较为刚性的资金价格，短端下行空间已相对有限，长端的约束在加 大，当前 10 年-1 年国债利差仍在 2024 年以来的较低分位，曲线平坦化已进入 相对极致的状态，长端继续下探的动力也相对不足。 当前随着债市步入横盘震荡期，交易难度在增加，对此，如何看待？ ➢ 货币政策取向再理解 由于当前实体消费和投资意愿待进一步提振，仅货币政策的扩张在提振经济 上或难以发挥出最大功效，若增量资金不断涌入债市、资金利率持续处于偏低水 平，也将增加利率风险。此外，当前外部环境复杂多变，货币政策保持定力，或 也旨在为后续应对留足空间。而运行于政策利率上方、呈现窄幅震荡的资金利率 便是多重考量下的均衡之举，与货币政策的支持性立场不矛盾，具体而言： （1）近年来，我国货币信贷增长已逐渐由供给约束转为需求约束，金融机 构此前在"规模情结"的驱使下，信贷投放力度较大，超出 ...

不要凭历史数据，甚至"感觉"去简单地拍点位，而是要建立自己的投资体系，用分析框架体系在左侧分析市场，用投资策略体系在右侧应对市场。我们要 事先做好策略、做好情景假设、做好量化好指标。如果 (if) 遇到什么情况，那么 (so) 就要怎么应对操作。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250108— 固本培元，固收为王（-传部分省份指导限制国债交易-央行再提"防止资金空转"+资金面均衡偏松=微下)】 近期关于指导、限制债市交易的小作文每天都不缺席，但看债市反应的话，已经审美疲劳了。今日股市顽强收涨2BP（0.02%)，债市盘中勉强回调1BP， 似乎在争相唱响："我还是从前（924之前）那个少年，没有一丝丝改变"。 上午交易主线：每逢开会、股跌债涨。发布会上"固本培元"重出江湖，配合今日一则消息共同食用："祛邪"+"扶正"，连花清瘟防治甲流优势凸显。最终 还是博大精深的中医赢麻了。 【今日盘面】 240011 1.6025/1.6050/1.5905/1.6000 -0.75 240215 1.6550/1.6550/1.6360/1.6450 -1.00 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展11亿元 ...