1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 22, the liquidity remained loose, with major repo rates continuing to decline; the rising risk appetite drove up the stock market and commodities, while the bond market remained weak; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues saw gains; yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the foreign exchange market has been operating smoothly and showing strong resilience this year. From January to May, equity - type inbound direct investment had a net inflow of $31.1 billion, a 16% year - on - year increase, and inbound securities investment had a net inflow of about $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend in the second half of last year [3]. - As of the end of June, the investment and operation scale of the endowment insurance fund reached 2.55 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will continue to expand the entrusted investment scale of the basic endowment insurance fund and regulate its information reporting and disclosure systems [3]. - The central bank reported that at the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a 7.1% year - on - year increase, with a 12.92 - trillion - yuan increase in the first half of the year. The balance of loans to enterprises and institutions was 182.47 trillion yuan, an 8.6% year - on - year increase, with an 11.5 - trillion - yuan increase in the first half of the year [4]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of bonds in the inter - bank market, accounting for about 2.5% of the total custody volume. In June, one new overseas institutional entity entered the inter - bank bond market, and there were 1,170 overseas institutional entities in total by the end of June [5]. - The cumulative issuance scale of panda bonds has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, and foreign capital holds nearly a quarter of them. Recently, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued 2 - billion - yuan 2 - year panda bonds in the inter - bank bond market [5]. 3.1.2 International News - Trump claimed that the U.S. and the Philippines reached a trade agreement, with the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, and the Philippines opening its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs. However, the Philippine government has not confirmed this [6]. - Due to the ruling coalition's defeat in the Senate election, concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook intensified, leading to a decline in the Japanese government bond market. Calls for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru to resign within the Liberal Democratic Party grew louder. On July 22, the prices of 20 - year and 40 - year Japanese government bonds fell, and the yen depreciated against the dollar by about 0.2% [7]. - On July 22, WTI August crude oil futures fell 1.47% to $66.21 per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures fell 0.89% to $68.59 per barrel, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.81% to $3.258 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On July 22, the central bank conducted 214.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 342.5 - billion - yuan reverse repurchases and 120 - billion - yuan treasury cash time deposits maturing on the same day, the net capital withdrawal was 247.7 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On July 22, the liquidity remained loose, and major repo rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 4.65bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 1.60bp to 1.474% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - On July 22, the rising risk appetite drove up the stock market and commodities, while the bond market remained weak. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active issue 250011 rose 1.50bp to 1.6920%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 rose 2.20bp to 1.7775% [13]. - Regarding bond tenders, the 2 - year 25Guokai02 (Increment 6) had a winning yield of 1.4933%, the 5 - year 25Guokai08 (Increment 10) had a winning yield of 1.5673%, and the 10 - year 25Guokai15 (Increment 9) had a winning yield of 1.6939% [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On July 22, the trading prices of 5 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell by more than 28%, "H1 Bidi 04" fell by more than 22%, "H0 Yangcheng 04" rose by more than 96%, "H0 Zhongjun 02" rose by more than 357%, and "H1 Bidi 01" rose by more than 400% [15]. - There were multiple credit bond events, such as Shimao Group's overseas debt restructuring taking effect on July 21, and several companies canceling bond issuances or facing rating changes [18]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On July 22, the three major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.62%, 0.84%, and 0.61% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.48%, 0.38%, and 0.64% respectively [17]. - There were multiple convertible bond - related events, such as JCHX Mining's convertible bond issuance being approved, Lanfan Convertible Bond expecting to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and some convertible bonds announcing early redemptions or non - redemptions [24]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On July 22, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 2bp to 3.83%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.35%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 52bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 1bp to 102bp [21][22]. - On July 22, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined. The 10 - year German government bond yield dropped 3bp to 2.59%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, Spain, and the UK also decreased [25]. - As of the close on July 22, the prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the bonds of Sunac China rose 4.1%, while those of Li Auto fell 1.8% [27].

7月14日各期限债券迎来不同程度调整。截至昨日15:00，10年期国债收益率报1.6710%，30年期国债收益率报 1.8825%，均创一个月以来新高。财政部发行20年期、30年期债券利率均高于预期，受此影响二级市场收益率同步走 高。 从资金分流角度，股市近期站上3500点对债市有短期扰动。然而考虑到投向股市和债市的资金风险偏好差异巨大，股 市资金对债市资金并不会形成明显的挤出效应。并且，近两年来上证指数和10年期债券收益率表现出一定的负相关 性。因此，股市与债市相互作用并不强，较弱的基本面和低利率的环境共同促成了今年的股债双牛。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资 者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做 好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the suppression of the stock market's strength on the bond market is not severe, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces certain disturbances, and further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [4][26][27]. Group 3 1. How does the stock - bond seesaw play out? - The report calculated the dynamic correlation coefficient between the daily changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the daily changes of the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate since 2015. It found that the stock - bond seesaw effect holds in most periods, with stock and bond markets generally moving in opposite directions. The weakening of the negative correlation mainly occurs during periods of obvious liquidity tightening or loosening, such as from 2016.07 - 2017.05 (liquidity tightening) and 2020.02 - 2022.10 (liquidity loosening). In the current bond market adjustment, the correlation between stocks and bonds has not significantly increased, and the stock market's impact on the bond market will decrease [4][11][13]. 2. How to view the subsequent bond market? - **Fundamental data disturbances**: In June, high - frequency port data showed that export performance remained resilient, and the spread between the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill rediscount rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate indicated possible improvement in credit conditions, which may affect bond market interest rates [15][18]. - **Accelerated issuance of special bonds**: The issuance of local special bonds may accelerate significantly in July, increasing the supply pressure on the bond market. It may also disrupt the capital market and restrict the decline of bond market interest rates as it can boost local investment [20]. - **Rising policy expectations**: Policy expectations related to the real estate industry are fermenting. Although the real estate market has been weak, new policies are expected to boost its performance, which may disrupt bond market sentiment [24]. 3. Summary - The stock market's strength has a limited impact on the bond market, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces disturbances from fundamental data, special bond issuance, and policy expectations. Further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [26][27][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, market sentiment and liquidity are acceptable. Stock indices may show a relatively strong oscillating pattern. The premium advantage of stock index futures has shrunk in the past two days, so caution is advised when chasing up [6]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.24bp change; DR007 closed at 1.48 with a 1.32bp change; GC001 closed at 1.43 with a -6.50bp change; GC007 closed at 1.51 with a -1.00bp change; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a -0.80bp change; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change; the 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.36 with a 0.50bp change; the 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.48 with a 0.30bp change; the 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.64 with a 0.00bp change; the 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.42 with a 2.00bp change [4]. - The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 985 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal for the day was 230 billion yuan. This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases are due in the central bank's open market, with 572 billion yuan and 340 billion yuan due on Thursday and Friday respectively. Recently, the inter - bank market liquidity has become more relaxed, and major repurchase rates have declined. The weighted average rate of overnight pledged - style repurchase by depository institutions dropped 4.47bp to 1.315%, reaching a new low since December 2024 [4]. Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts: The CSI 300 closed at 3991, down 0.18%; the SSE 50 closed at 2740, down 0.26%; the CSI 500 closed at an unspecified value, down 0.41%; the CSI 1000 closed at 6390, down 0.27%. The IF current - month contract closed at 3977, down 0.1%; the IH current - month contract closed at 2730, down 0.1%; the IC current - month contract closed at 5930, down 0.5%; the IM current - month contract closed at 6359, down 0.3% [5]. - The trading volume and open interest changes of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 82089, down 13.5; IF open interest was 246185, down 4.2; IH trading volume was 42379, down 8.9; IH open interest was 85854, down 2.5; IC trading volume was 70784, down 23.9; IC open interest was 222178, down 5.1; IM trading volume was 162388, down 25.4; IM open interest was 321744, down 7.4 [5]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year increase of CPI turned from a 0.1% decline last month to a 0.1% increase, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 0.1% in the first half of the year. The year - on - year decline of PPI was 3.6%, with the decline widening from 3.3% last month, and the cumulative decline in the first half of the year was 2.8%. The turn of CPI from negative to positive was mainly driven by high - temperature and rainy weather leading to a reverse increase in vegetable prices and a significant narrowing of the year - on - year decline, as well as the increase in international oil prices driving the year - on - year recovery of domestic energy prices to positive growth. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened due to weak domestic demand, sufficient supply causing accelerated price declines of industrial products such as coal and steel, and tariff policy adjustments and weak external demand increasing the downward price pressure on some export - oriented industries [5]. - The升贴水 (premium/discount) rates of stock index futures contracts: IF current - month contract was 14.63%, next - month contract was 7.32%, current - quarter contract was 4.90%, next - quarter contract was 4.01%; IH current - month contract was 14.98%, next - month contract was 5.80%, current - quarter contract was 2.95%, next - quarter contract was 1.20%; IC current - month contract was 16.00%, next - month contract was 12.74%, current - quarter contract was 11.08%, next - quarter contract was 9.53%; IM current - month contract was 20.10%, next - month contract was 15.66%, current - quarter contract was 14.00%, next - quarter contract was 12.72% [7]. - Yesterday's closing situation: The CSI 300 rose 0.84% to 3998.5; the SSE 50 rose 0.57% to 2747.2; the CSI 500 rose 1.31% to 5977.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.27% to 6407.7. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15052 billion yuan, an increase of 512 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with the diversified finance, engineering consulting services, cultural media, medical services, and banking sectors leading the gains, and the insurance, small metals, precious metals, shipbuilding, and wind power equipment sectors leading the losses [10].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by significant issuance expansion and interest rate volatility, with expectations of a fluctuating market in the second half [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Issuance and Structure - The total issuance in the bond market exceeded 27 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 24% [2]. - Interest rate bonds accounted for nearly 40% of the total issuance, with government bonds at 7.89 trillion yuan and local government bonds at 5.49 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 49.11%, which is 10.82 percentage points faster than the same period last year [2]. - The net financing scale of interest rate bonds surged, with government bonds net financing reaching 3.4 trillion yuan, approximately double that of the previous year [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 30 basis points in the first quarter, reaching a high of 1.89% before falling to around 1.65% by the end of the second quarter, forming a "V" shape [3]. - The interbank 7-day pledged repo rate (DR007) decreased from approximately 2.3% at the beginning of the year to below 1.7%, indicating a shift from a "tight balance" to a "relatively loose" liquidity environment [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook for the Second Half - The bond market is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the second half, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [4]. - Analysts suggest that the balance between supply pressure from interest rate bonds and expectations of monetary policy easing will influence market dynamics [4]. - The net financing scale of interest rate bonds in the second half is estimated to be around 6.88 trillion yuan, with a monthly average of 1.15 trillion yuan, close to the levels of the same period in 2023 [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a balanced investment approach, focusing on both short-term liquidity and long-term value in interest rate bonds, while capturing opportunities in a flattening yield curve [5]. - In the credit bond market, there is a positive trend with a focus on high-quality local government bonds, financially stable state-owned real estate companies, and stable city commercial bank secondary capital bonds [5]. - Investors are advised to maintain flexibility in their portfolios, managing duration risk while seizing structural opportunities across different varieties and maturities [5].

Group 1 - The central bank has increased liquidity withdrawal after the quarter-end, but the central tendency of funding rates continues to decline, with the one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit (CD) yield dropping below 1.6% [1][2] - Market optimism regarding future funding conditions is rising, supported by accelerated fiscal spending and increased demand for CDs from wealth management and money market funds [1][3] - Concerns about banks' liability pressure and the potential for increasing CD issuance limits have emerged as the interbank CD registration quota usage accelerates [1][7] Group 2 - The central bank's recent operations included a net withdrawal of over 10 billion yuan, while the funding rates continued to decline, with DR001 and DR007 falling to 1.31% and 1.42% respectively [2][3] - Analysts expect the one-year AAA CD yield to have further downward potential, with a lower limit around 1.50%, influenced by fiscal spending and weak credit [3][4] - The current valuation of one-year CDs is slightly high, with the central bank considering the impact of CD rates on banks' net interest margins and loan issuance [5][6] Group 3 - As of the end of May, the disclosed CD issuance plans from banks reached a cumulative total of 33 trillion yuan, with a significant increase compared to previous years [6][7] - The issuance pace of CDs varies among different types of banks, with state-owned banks showing a higher usage ratio compared to joint-stock banks [6][7] - The upcoming months will see a substantial amount of CDs maturing, with approximately 14.75 trillion yuan due from July to December, raising concerns about banks' liability management [7][8]

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 280.1 billion, 72.1 billion, and 161.0 billion respectively, with net financing of 199.9 billion, 21.6 billion, and 155.0 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance of 208.2 billion, with a net financing amount of 84.3 billion [1] - One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 0.7 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates declined last week, influenced by factors such as the lowest funding rates of the year, the return of wealth management funds, reduced government bond issuance, and the stock-bond relationship [2] Liquidity Tracking - The net withdrawal through Open Market Operations (OMO) was 1.4 trillion, but fiscal spending supplemented liquidity, leading to a noticeable easing of funds at the beginning of the month [3] - Anonymous funds dropped to 1.3%, and one-year government stock certificates fell below 1.6% [3] Policy and Fundamentals - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need for lawful governance of enterprises to curb low-price disorderly competition [4] - The manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7, surpassing expectations and previous values [4] Overseas Market - The U.S. Congress passed the "Great Beauty" tax reduction bill, and non-farm employment numbers for June exceeded expectations [5] - The S&P 500 rose by 1.7% over the week, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points [5] Equity Market - The A-share market saw most broad-based indices rise, driven by strong bank sector performance and favorable news in the innovation drug sector [6] - The Wind All A index increased by 1.22%, the CSI 300 rose by 1.54%, and the ChiNext surged by 1.50% [6] - Daily average trading volume decreased to 1.44 trillion, with a weekly average trading volume drop of 130.2 billion [6] - As of July 3, 2025, the total financing balance for All A reached 1,846.38 billion, an increase of 19.847 billion compared to June 26, marking nine consecutive trading days of net growth [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The government bond supply pressure remains high in Q3, and the overall liquidity is expected to remain loose to support government bond issuance and stabilize growth [7] - Economic growth risks are increasing due to weakened export demand, a downturn in the real estate cycle, and reduced support from new policies [7] - Current bond investments have a high probability of success, but the potential for returns depends on the realization of fundamental expectations [7] - Convertible bonds face supply-demand contradictions, with liquidity remaining relatively loose, but the convertible bond index has reached new highs, indicating a need for careful selection of underlying assets [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The drivers of commodity futures are differentiated, with coking coal being relatively strong and lithium carbonate and PTA being relatively weak [1]. - Stock indices are in a period of consolidation, and their medium - to long - term upward trend is clear. The bond market is running at a high level, and gold is oscillating at a high level [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market oscillated strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high. The trading volume of the two markets was about 1.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week. The steel, banking, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the comprehensive finance and computer industries led the losses. The four major stock index futures showed differentiated trends, with IF and IH strengthening, and IC and IM oscillating at high levels [1]. - In the short term, stock indices may maintain high - level consolidation. In the medium - to long - term, with clear policy support and improved fundamental expectations, the inflow of medium - to long - term funds continues, and the upward trend of stock indices is clear. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations. Domestically, during the interim report season, the earnings of IF and IH constituent stocks are more certain, and their trends may be stronger [1]. Bonds - Last week, the bond market rose slightly and remained at a high level. The US is in trade negotiations with many countries, and there is still high uncertainty. The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation at the beginning of the month, but the capital market remained loose, and the inter - bank capital cost declined across the board [1]. - Although the bond issuance pressure has increased, the market's expectation of liquidity remains optimistic. Overall, the macro - environment has strong uncertainty and limited trend drivers. The bond market remains at a high level, but there is still high - valuation pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market [1]. Gold and Silver - The suspension period of US reciprocal tariffs is about to end, and short - term policy uncertainty has increased again. However, there are more signals of strong US economic resilience, which is conducive to restoring market risk appetite. The short - term probability of a Fed rate cut has decreased, and the factors favorable to the gold price in the long - term need further fermentation [1]. - In the short term, the driving force for the gold price to break through upwards is insufficient, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level in July. The gold - silver ratio is high, and there is a possibility of repair. The silver price has strong technical support below after the breakthrough. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put option positions of the gold and silver 08 contracts until expiration [4]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, Shanghai copper was strong in the first half of the week and fell back in the second half, returning below 80,000 yuan. The US is in trade negotiations with many countries, and there is still high uncertainty. The supply at the mine end remains tight, and attention should be paid to the development of the Peruvian copper mine incident [3][4]. - The demand remains cautiously expected, and the off - season and high prices have restricted the downstream to a certain extent. The inventories of domestic and overseas exchanges have increased across the board, and the LME spot premium has significantly declined. The financial attribute still supports the copper price in the medium - to long - term, and the low - inventory pattern is expected to remain unchanged before the copper tariff is implemented. However, the short - term positive factors may weaken [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - The US trade negotiation uncertainty remains high. The concern about ore disturbances in alumina has not subsided, but the domestic bauxite inventory is still high, and the short - term supply shortage concern is limited. The alumina production capacity is expanding rapidly, and the downstream demand has little room for growth, so the surplus pattern is difficult to change [3][4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the supply constraint is still clear, and the import profit remains inverted. The demand is still cautious due to the off - season, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. Overall, the alumina surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is under pressure. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short - term demand and inventory have certain drags, and the influence of tariffs has increased [4]. Nickel - The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered seasonally, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the nickel ore price has weakened marginally. The supply of nickel iron is abundant, but the downstream acceptance is limited, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The production capacity of intermediate products is still expanding. The refined nickel production decreased in June, but the inventory remained oscillating at a high level. Overall, the demand is weak, the nickel supply has increased seasonally, and the surplus pattern is clear. As the macro - sentiment fades, the nickel price is under pressure. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals Lithium Carbonate - The lithium ore price has stabilized, which has increased the cost support. However, the surplus pattern of the lithium salt market has not been substantially improved. The weekly output of lithium carbonate remains at a relatively high level of over 18,000 tons, while the downstream demand has insufficient growth, and the inventory is still in the accumulation cycle [6]. - The current periodical rebound can be used to short at high prices [6]. Industrial Silicon - The number of open furnaces in the industrial silicon market has increased this week. Some manufacturers in the southwest region have resumed production due to the implementation of the wet - season subsidy electricity price, and the market supply has increased [6]. - Since the warehouse receipts are still being depleted, the near - month contracts are strongly supported. Attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution production cuts on the supply side [6]. Steel and Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar was stable to slightly lower over the weekend, and the spot trading was generally weak. The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, but the improvement at the spot level is limited. The speculative demand has recovered, but the rigid demand has weakened seasonally, and the marginal inventory reduction speed of rebar has gradually slowed down [6]. - It is expected that the rebar futures price has strong bottom support but is subject to double pressure from the electric - furnace cost and the sustainability of spot price increases. It is recommended to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option positions (RB2510P2900) [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil was generally stable over the weekend, with slight declines in some areas, and the spot trading was generally weak. The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, but the follow - up power at the spot level is insufficient. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are both strong, and the inventory has increased [6]. - It is expected that the hot - rolled coil futures price has strong bottom support but is subject to pressure from export costs and the sustainability of spot price increases during the off - season. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see on the single - side and consider participating in the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits for the 01 contract [6]. Iron Ore - Last week, the daily output of molten iron in the Steel Union sample decreased but remained above 2.4 million tons. Under the background of high molten iron output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of imported ore in July is limited [6]. - The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, and the steel futures and spot prices have risen in resonance. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to continue holding the sold out - of - the money put option I2509 - P680 and consider participating in the 9 - 1 positive spread when the spread is low [6]. Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The raw coal inventory in coal mines has continued to decline, the pit - mouth transaction atmosphere has improved, and the enthusiasm of steel, coke enterprises, and trading links for raw material procurement and inventory has increased. The transaction rate has reached a new high for the year, and the short - term supply - demand mismatch has pushed up the coal price [8]. - It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and pay attention to the coal mine production increase progress after the safety production month and the sustainability of downstream procurement [8]. Coke - Hebei steel mills may have production restrictions, but the daily output of molten iron is at a relatively high seasonal level, which supports the rigid demand for coke. The actual demand performance is good, while the coke oven operation is restricted by profit factors and is difficult to significantly increase production. Coke plants are actively reducing inventory, and there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market [8]. Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are clear. The daily output of soda ash remained unchanged at 99,300 tons on Friday, and Kunshan and Qinghai Fatou will resume production one after another this week. The demand for light soda ash is difficult to offset the reduction in heavy soda ash demand [8]. - The supply of soda ash is relatively loose, and the continuous passive inventory accumulation trend of alkali plants remains unchanged. In the short term, the soda ash price oscillates at a low level, and the near - month contracts are weaker than the far - month contracts due to the selling - hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the short positions of the soda ash 09 contract with a stop - profit line and patiently hold the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [8]. Float Glass - The operating capacity of float glass is temporarily stable, and the demand is difficult to digest both the supply and the existing inventory at the same time. The glass factory inventory fluctuates slightly, and it is difficult to reduce the high inventory [8]. - The "anti - involution" concept has promoted the recovery of market expectations, but the short - term implementation probability is low, and the cold - repair drive of glass factories is still accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 01 contract at low prices after the basis widens and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the US "Big and Beautiful" Act has been passed by both houses of Congress, which may increase US crude oil production. The EIA weekly data shows an unexpected inventory accumulation, which is generally bearish [8]. - Overall, the OPEC+ production increase decision may increase the supply pressure, and the short - term oil price will oscillate weakly [8]. PTA - The cost - end crude oil OPEC+ continues to significantly increase production, and the oil price is expected to move down, providing weak support for energy - chemical products. In addition, the PTA supply side will face the pressure of new production capacity and the resumption of existing maintenance capacity in the third quarter, and the inventory - reduction pattern will turn into inventory accumulation [11]. - It is expected that the price will show an oscillating downward trend [11]. Methanol - Most Iranian methanol plants have restarted, but the operating load is low. The operating rate of overseas methanol plants has increased by 11% to 64%. Many plants in the northwest started maintenance last week, and the output will decrease by about 5% in the next month, and the factory inventory will also decrease passively [10]. - The monthly arrival volume has decreased more than expected, and the weekly volume is expected to not exceed 300,000 tons. Although the downstream demand has entered the off - season, the total demand has not changed significantly. Therefore, the supply will be tight in July, and the methanol price is supported. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options or at - the - money straddles for the 08 options contract [10]. Polyolefins - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, with an increase of 548,000 barrels per day starting in August and considering another increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September. The crude oil supply is increasingly surplus, and the price will continue to decline [10]. - In the second quarter, new polyolefin plants were successfully put into operation. In the second half of the year, PE will have 3.1 million tons of new production capacity, and PP will have 2.1 million tons of new production capacity, resulting in large supply pressure. It is recommended to go long on the L - PP spread and short on PP 3MA [10]. Cotton - The domestic cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 6.784 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease, and the expectation of tight supply and demand in the current season has strengthened. The third quarter is the critical growth period of cotton, and any adverse weather conditions may cause final yield losses and push up the weather premium [10]. - The downstream textile enterprises are performing well, the terminal clothing consumption has remained basically unchanged year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has continued to decline. It is recommended to continue holding the previous long positions [10]. Rubber - The rubber tapping operations in domestic and Southeast Asian main producing areas have progressed smoothly, the impact of climate factors has weakened, and the expected seasonal increase in raw material supply has been realized. The downstream tire enterprises have difficulty in depleting finished - product inventory, which has dragged down the production line operation rate [10]. - The inventory at the port is accelerating accumulation, indicating an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the fundamentals. The rubber price is likely to continue the weak - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [10].

Core Viewpoint - The market is influenced by various unpredictable stories, making it difficult to forecast future trends based on past events or factors [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,065 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 3,315 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,250 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.31% and the DR007 rate around 1.47% [2]. - The bond market showed mixed movements, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.64% [4]. Group 2: Economic Events - Trump signed 12 trade letters and announced that countries aligned with anti-American policies in BRICS would face an additional 10% tariff [4]. - The bond market experienced low trading activity, with the total number of transactions for 10-year government bonds being less than 1,200 and the price fluctuations being minimal [4]. - Despite the mixed signals from Trump regarding trade policies, the global market seems to be trading based on the expectation that he may backtrack on his threats [4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 106.5 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 225 billion yuan due to 331.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The central bank's net liquidity withdrawal in the previous week was 1.3753 trillion yuan, with daily net withdrawals exceeding 250 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of the funding environment [1] - Despite the accelerated pace of net withdrawals by the central bank, the funding market is showing a seasonal trend of easing, with overnight and 7-day funding rates hitting new lows for the year [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (July 7-11) will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 652.2 billion yuan, with government bond net payments expected to rise to 251.1 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday [2] - The market is anticipated to experience a "stable period" in funding prices, with overnight rates expected to fluctuate around the OMO ±5 basis points range and 7-day funding rates likely to remain below 1.5% [2] - The central bank has not announced any buyout reverse repos or government bond trading operations for June, with 1.2 trillion yuan of buyout reverse repos maturing in July, creating a potential funding gap [3] Group 3 - The market may face a 1.3 trillion yuan medium- to long-term funding gap until the MLF renewal on July 25, making the central bank's decision on whether to conduct buyout reverse repo auctions a key variable for the funding market [3] - The expectation is that the supply of government bonds in July will not significantly increase compared to June, and the central bank's desire to prevent long-term yields from declining unilaterally remains [3] - The central bank's proactive stance on liquidity and the continued decline in money market rates are seen as the most certain factors, with short-term rates potentially having further room to decline [4]