格隆汇1月4日｜高盛全球对冲基金业务负责人Pasquariello在年度回顾中指出，2025年从美股指数表现来 看可用"非常好"形容，但对身处市场第一线的投资人而言，却是一段高压且剧烈震荡的历程。展望2026 年，Pasquariello直言这将不会是平淡的一年。尽管基准情境仍偏向正报酬，但在高估值、技术变革与巨 额AI投资并存的环境下，市场将更加"狂野"，单纯的买入并持有策略可能遭遇挑战，投资人对战术调整 与风险管理的依赖将显著提高。 ...

全球市场的目光已投向新的一年。2026年，中国股市能否延续涨势？金价还有多少上行空间？AI投资 热潮能否持续？四大国际投行给出了自己的判断。 摩根士丹利：国内有望迎来更积极的财政政策 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强认为，2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，财政和房地产政策将持 续发力，发挥托底作用。 当前，三大积极变化带来信心。首先，政策更灵活，财政货币协调支持消费。其次，企业展现强大韧性 和创新力，尤其在AI、智能驾驶、电池、生物制药等领域形成全球竞争力。第三，资金活跃度提升， 海外资金对中国资产兴趣回升，以保险、银行资管为代表的机构投资者以及散户入市迹象增强。 在科技等关键领域，美国强在算力与基础研究投入，中国则在人才、基础设施、数据与应用场景上优势 明显，两者各有侧重，均构成了未来增长的重要动力。 展望2026年，邢自强认为，中国出口有望保持相对坚挺，更关键的变量在于内需政策，预计2026年财政 政策有望比2025年更积极。 瑞银：看好中国股市持续上行 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)认为，经历了表现亮眼的一年后，中国市场的涨势有望在2026年延 续，先进制造业和科技自立自强成为新的增长引擎。市 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that investors' attitudes towards AI have shifted from long-term speculative visions reminiscent of the 1990s to a focus on immediate, quantifiable profit performance [1] - Ben Snider, the incoming head of Goldman Sachs' U.S. equity business, notes that the current market is more cautious, learning from past experiences such as the internet bubble, which led to inflated valuations [1] - The market's current focus on sectors like semiconductors, hyperscale data centers, and utilities reflects this more pragmatic approach to investment [1] Group 2 - Snider points out that speculative activities in the market have significantly cooled compared to the internet bubble era [2] - Goldman Sachs has established a "speculative trading indicator" to measure the proportion of trading activity from loss-making companies, small-cap stocks, or overvalued stocks, indicating that current speculation levels are much lower than 25 years ago and even below the market frenzy of 2021 [2] - Snider describes the current investment environment as potentially the "least frenzied yet often labeled as a bubble" in modern history [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to show a strong upward trend in 2025, driven by the "New National Nine Policies" and the AI investment boom, which positively impacts sectors like computing power, semiconductors, and power equipment [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The "New National Nine Policies" are enhancing the overall return expectations for the equity market, encouraging companies to increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, leading to a significant rise in dividend and buyback scales [1] - Despite challenges such as trade environment fluctuations and macroeconomic pressures, the A-share market has still delivered strong returns, supported by policy backing and anticipated capital market efficiency reforms [1] - As of Q3 2025, the northbound capital from the Stock Connect holds a market value of 25,817.11 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 2,944.06 billion from Q2, primarily due to stock appreciation [2] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Company Governance - Foreign institutions are increasingly focusing on potential investment returns driven by corporate governance improvements, with a notable trend in East Asian markets, particularly in China and South Korea, where companies are enhancing governance levels and increasing share buybacks [2] - The demand for dividend assets is rising among insurance and wealth management funds, as the A-share market's dividend yield advantage becomes more apparent in the context of declining risk-free interest rates and compressed bond market returns [1][2] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The return of moderate inflation is seen as a sign of normalization and structural health in the economy, with core inflation rising since May of the previous year, indicating potential for broader corporate profitability beyond the tech sector [3] - The "DeepSeek" market trend is characterized as a "perfect storm" resulting from multiple factors, including low market sentiment and the global AI topic's resonance, suggesting that further opening up is necessary to attract global investors [4] - The ongoing structural adjustments in the real estate market may lead to the stock market becoming a more attractive alternative for savings, as the domestic market narrative continues to evolve [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent public course offering by renowned fund manager Li Bei has sparked significant market discussion, highlighting the evolving dynamics of the asset management industry and the rise of knowledge monetization in finance [1][15]. Group 1: Course Offering and Pricing - Li Bei announced a high-priced investment course titled "Learn Investment from Scratch," priced at 12,888 yuan for four sessions, targeting high-level professionals and affluent individuals [4][7]. - Despite the controversy, the course has reportedly sold out, with potential revenue estimated at approximately 2.58 million yuan if 200 spots were filled [9]. Group 2: Industry Reactions and Criticism - Former analyst Tan Jun has publicly criticized Li Bei's investment philosophy, particularly her views on AI and real estate, suggesting they reflect a misunderstanding of market trends [8][12]. - Tan Jun's critiques include claims that Li Bei's course model resembles that of problematic financial products, indicating a tendency to "precisely harvest conservative wealthy individuals" [8][12]. Group 3: Knowledge Monetization Trend - The rise of knowledge monetization in the finance sector has become a trend, with many former financial professionals leveraging their expertise to create paid content, often at higher price points than typical knowledge products [14]. - This trend reflects a broader shift in the asset management industry, where personal branding and social media presence are increasingly important for professional visibility and engagement [15].

市场有声音称"投资的尽头是卖课"，认为其在业绩承压（近三年管理部分产品跑输沪深300）时开辟流量变现新路径。面对市场质疑，李蓓回应称开课 是"意外"，非规划中业务，所有课程相关收入将注入慈善基金，初步考虑是用于支持在校大学生，且不会开设付费知识星球或微信群。 最近，"私募魔女"李蓓开始公开卖课一事引发市场热议。针对此事，近几天方正证券前分析师谭珺在个人公众号连续发文"开怼"，先是说要拆解李蓓"看 空AI、看多地产"背后的认知陷阱，后又将自己与李蓓的投资逻辑进行对比，今日又发文称李蓓存在"精准收割保守富人"的倾向。 对于谭珺的针锋相对，今日《每日经济新闻》记者联系上了李蓓本人。她回应称，自己不认识谭珺，也不关心对方的说法。 近年来，知识付费成为金融圈IP变现的新风口，也引发了不少争议。有业内人士认为，李蓓卖课"出圈"，折射出资管行业在当下的生态逻辑。从行业角度 看，这也可以视为资管行业个人品牌在社交媒体时代发展的一个缩影。 高价课程引发争议 12月26日，知名基金经理、半夏投资创始人李蓓通过半夏投资公众号发文《从0开始学投资》，宣称将通过"4节课教会普通人做投资"。引人关注的是，4 节课定价高达12888元。 ...

2025海外央行风云录：谁在降息，谁在"逆行"？ 3% Jan Feb Mar Mav Jul Aua Sept Oct Nov Dec Apr Jun 欧洲央行 & 英国央行- Feb Mar Mav Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Apr Jun 25 75 澳洲联储& 加拿大央行 Feb Apr May Jul Sept Dec Mar Jun Aug Oct Nov Jan O 美联储主席鲍威尔在年内最后一次公开市场委员会会议上释放鹰 派宽松信号。他强调，当前利率已处于中性区间高位,货币政策 无预设路径,后续将逐次会议做决策。 O 高盛预计,美联储将在2026年上半年放缓宽松节奏,预计1月暂 停降息后,3月和6月各降息一次,最终将联邦基金利率降至 3%-3.25%。 ○ 欧洲央行2025年共实施三次降息，欧元区存款机制利率、主要再 融资利率和边际借贷利率分别降至2.00%、2.15%、2.40%。 欧洲央行最新声明指出,最新的评估再次确认通胀将在中期内稳 定在2%的目标，并预计通胀水平将在2028年回归至这一目标。 O 英国央行全年四次降息，基准利率降至3.75%。 英国央行 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]

格隆汇12月31日｜得益于美联储降息以及AI投资热情大幅上升，2025年全球股市有望实现六年来的最 大年度涨幅。2025年仅剩最后一个交易日之际，MSCI全球股票指数今年已上涨21%。其中亚洲市场股 票预计将连续第三年上涨，势创2017年以来最佳涨幅。2025年，股票价格涨至历史最高点，因对经济增 长、企业盈利以及宽松货币政策的乐观预期推动了市场从4月份特朗普关税引发的下跌中反弹。然而， 在进入2026年之际，投资者面临着较高的估值水平，同时政策制定者之间在进一步放宽政策的范围上也 出现了分歧。帕尼克斯资产管理集团首席投资官阿曼达·阿加蒂周二表示，"要想在明年继续走高，股市 需要一个温和的美联储。"展望新的一年，投资者们有理由保持乐观：过去10年里，MSCI全球股票指数 在1月份的平均涨幅为1.4%，其中有6次实现了上涨。 ...

最近，"私募魔女"李蓓开始公开卖课一事引发市场热议。针对此事，近几天方正证券前分析师谭珺在个人公众号连 续发文"开怼"，先是说要拆解李蓓"看空AI、看多地产"背后的认知陷阱，后又将自己与李蓓的投资逻辑进行对比， 今日又发文称李蓓存在"精准收割保守富人"的倾向。 从李蓓在公众号撰文的相关表述来看，这套定价过万的课程目标群体是"企业高管""年轻偶像""富二代""专业投资 人"等。而对于希望储蓄能保值增值的普通白领或工薪阶层，她推荐学习后续的线上课程，或购买未来由课程整理出 版的书籍。 尽管如此，争议并未停歇。近几日，方正证券前分析师谭珺就在其个人公众号接连发文将矛头指向李蓓，几年前她 曾因"全网第一个喊4000点"在业内出圈。 12月27日，谭珺先在个人公众号发文称，李蓓"看空AI、看多地产"是逆趋势反逻辑，AI是未来10年最大确定性，而 房地产旧逻辑已因人口、杠杆、收益率问题失效；随后，又发文通过表格对比，明确她和李蓓在投资哲学、核心赛 道判断上存在明显差异。 对于谭珺的针锋相对，今日《每日经济新闻》记者联系上了李蓓本人。她回应称，自己不认识谭珺，也不关心对方 的说法。 近年来，知识付费成为金融圈IP变现的新风 ...