1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for rebar 2601 is "sideways", and the intraday outlook is "sideways and slightly weak". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has not improved, and steel prices will move sideways [1]. - Although rebar demand continues to recover seasonally, supply has also increased. The fundamentals have not improved, and there is significant pressure on inventory reduction. Steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and production restrictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways and slightly weak" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and steel prices move sideways [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and production restrictions in Tangshan have provided a boost, leading to a strengthening of steel futures prices. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. Construction steel mills have increased production, supply has rebounded from a low level, and inventory is relatively high, increasing pressure. Meanwhile, rebar demand has continued to improve, with high - frequency indicators rising, but it remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the downstream situation has not improved. The peak - season performance is expected to be lackluster. In summary, although rebar demand has seasonally recovered, supply has also increased, the fundamentals have not improved, and there is significant pressure on inventory reduction. Steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the sharp rebound in crude oil prices and the cooling in coastal areas, the valuation of the LPG futures market has rebounded this week, with a high monthly spread and strong spot prices. However, the increase in raw material prices has also pressured the deep - processing plants. Although the previously shut - down plants have resumed normal operation and the operating rate has increased, the plant profit losses have intensified. Currently, the fundamental structure of LPG has not changed, traditional demand has not yet spread, and chemical demand shows rigid characteristics. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback effect of continuous losses in downstream plant profits and the impact of the PN spread remaining below $50 on the raw material procurement of cracking plants [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report provides the closing price, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes of various energy and chemical products such as exchange rates, precious metals, and energy commodities. For example, the current price of LPG is 4,258 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly increase of 0.90%, a monthly increase of 0.31%, and an annual decrease of 8.07% [3]. 3.2 LPG Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of liquefied gas was about [missing value] tons, including [missing value] tons of civil gas, [missing value] tons of industrial gas, and [missing value] tons of ether - post C4. The arrival volume of liquefied gas last week was [missing value] tons. Although some plants in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong resumed operation, a refinery in South China had partial equipment under maintenance and some enterprises used resources internally, resulting in a decrease in supply. This week, production enterprises have no plans to start or shut down, but some enterprises still use resources internally, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - In October, the combustion demand for liquefied gas is in the off - season as the heating season has not yet arrived. In the C4 deep - processing sector, the demand for n - butane is insufficient, the plant profit losses have intensified, and the economic efficiency has weakened. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the demand for alkanes has rebounded month - on - month, but the continuous losses in plant profits have dampened the production enthusiasm of enterprises due to the sharp increase in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand structure [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was [missing value] tons, and the port inventory was [missing value] tons. This week, the storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic liquefied gas market has decreased. In some areas, the inventory has slightly increased due to the impact of imported resources and adverse weather conditions, while other areas have successfully reduced inventory through low prices and low supply. The port inventory has generally shown a downward trend [5]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis is [missing value] yuan/ton in East China, [missing value] yuan/ton in South China, and [missing value] yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts has increased by [missing value] to [missing value] hands, and the lowest deliverable location is [missing value] [5]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are [missing value]%, [missing value]%, and [missing value]% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are [missing value] yuan/ton, [missing value] yuan/ton, and [missing value] yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio is [missing value], and the PG monthly spread is [missing value] yuan/ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil prices have rebounded sharply this week, and the PG - SC cracking spread has narrowed [5]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents at the Budapest Summit in Hungary has been postponed, and there is currently no plan for a meeting between the two presidents. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, and there have been continuous market news disturbances. Europe and the US have imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India has re - planned its energy procurement plan [5]. 3.3 LPG Price and Spread Analysis - The report provides the prices, price changes, and spreads of LPG futures contracts at different times. For example, on October 24, 2025, the price of PG01 is 4,050 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.92% and a monthly decrease of 5.42%. The monthly spread between PG01 and PG02 is 107 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10.31% and a monthly increase of 67.19% [10]. 3.4 Refinery Equipment Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of major and local refineries in China, including the refinery name, location, maintenance equipment, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [11]. 3.5 LPG Plant and PDH Device Maintenance Data - It provides the maintenance data of LPG plants and PDH devices, including the production enterprise, location, maintenance equipment, normal production volume, loss volume, start time, and end time [12]. 3.6 International LPG - Related Price and Spread Analysis - The report includes the price trends and spreads of CP propane, CP butane, FEI propane, FEI butane, MB propane, MB butane, etc., as well as the price ratios of these products to WTI and Brent crude oil [13][20][24]. 3.7 LPG Market Consumption and Inventory Analysis - It analyzes the consumption and inventory of LPG, including the apparent consumption, production, sales rate, and inventory in different regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Shandong [135][137]. 3.8 LPG Deep - Processing Profit Analysis - The report analyzes the profits of alkane and olefin deep - processing, including PDH - to - propylene, PDH - to - PP, MTBE, and alkylation oil [193][206][212].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for LLDPE and PP are both "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate. Influenced by supply, demand, inventory, cost and other factors, the supply side has some fluctuations in production and capacity utilization, the demand side has mixed performance in different downstream industries, the inventory shows a downward trend, the cost of some production methods has changed, and the macro - policy has a negative impact on the market [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to oscillate. The supply side's capacity utilization has decreased, the demand side has a positive outlook in general with different downstream industries performing differently, the inventory at various levels has decreased, the profit of some production methods has changed, and the macro - policy has a negative impact [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.46%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some devices were under maintenance, and some newly - stopped devices restarted during the week [2]. Demand - The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products increased by 1.64% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films increased by 2.75%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.52%. In 2025, the cumulative import volume was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2]. Inventory - As of this week, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 51.46 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 2.81% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decrease, and 9.19% lower year - on - year. The inventory of imported polyethylene in warehouses decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and was 20.33% lower year - on - year [2]. Cost and Profit - The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased by 41, 242, and 81 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The ethylene - based cost remained unchanged, and the methanol - based cost decreased by 163 yuan/ton. International oil prices rose due to factors such as US sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. Valuation - The spot price is neutral, the absolute price of the futures market is neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. Macro Policy - The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to the fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating weakly [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.94%, a 2.28% month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 78.76%, a 2.25% month - on - month decrease [3]. Demand - The average operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%. With the cooling weather, the demand for cold - chain packaging in some regions increased. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers rose, driving up the operating rate of the PP non - woven fabric industry. The operating rates of the CPP and BOPP industries increased steadily. Although the PP pipe and plastic - weaving industries were affected by rainy weather, with the approaching of e - commerce festivals, the overall demand for polypropylene products is expected to continue to improve [3]. Inventory - As of this week, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 63.85 million tons, a 4.02 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 5.92% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 0.11 million tons from the previous period, a 1.62% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of domestic polypropylene traders decreased by 1.86 million tons from the previous period, a 7.80% month - on - month decrease [3]. Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production were repaired, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. The international energy agency warned of long - term supply surplus risks, and trade disputes initiated by the US suppressed the demand outlook, putting pressure on the oil market. The profit of oil - based PP production rose to - 278.53 yuan/ton [3]. Valuation - The spot price is neutral, the absolute price of the futures market is neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. Macro Policy - The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to the fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating weakly [3] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - PP futures price was 6,662 yuan/ton, a 1.69% increase from last week; PE futures price was 6,969 yuan/ton, a 1.38% increase from last week. PP spot price was 6,640 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from last week; LLDPE spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, a 0.99% increase from last week [5]. - The operating rate of PP was 38.6%, a 2.60% decrease from last week; the operating rate of PE was 81.46%, a 0.37% decrease from last week [5]. - The factory inventory of PP was 42,970 tons, a 1.58% increase from last week; the social inventory of PE was 64.52 million tons, a 0.54% increase from last week [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 供需有支撑，价格下行空间有限 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-27 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:需求有韧性，价格走低空间收窄 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.13万吨，与16日持平。行业开工率为76.35%，与16日持平；行业产能利用率为80.63%，与16日持平。 | | | | 本周无生产线变化，供应量持稳。下周1条产线存在点火预期，实际还需视其执行情况。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 旺季需求有支撑，但表现反复，近期产销走弱。 | | 库存 | 偏空 | 库存累积，企业库存6661.3万重箱，环比+233.7万重箱，环比+3.64%，同比+16.99%。折库存天数28.3天，较上期+1天。 | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent market has been strong due to shipping companies' additional sailings cancellations and good cargo receipts on multiple routes at the end of October. The current valuation of the December contract is high, but due to multiple expected price increase nodes and the upward drive during the long - term contract signing season, the logic of going long on dips for the December contract remains unchanged. There may be short - term downward disturbances, and attention should be paid to possible price cuts by shipping companies in early November. Against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties, the February contract may have more upside potential with the arrival of the peak season, but there are also geopolitical fluctuations. The April contract maintains the view of shorting on rallies, but it may follow the near - term contracts and fluctuate strongly during the peak season from November to January and can be gradually short - positioned [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Information - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.8, up 0.15%, with a direct difference of 2.6, yesterday's trading volume was 817, yesterday's open interest was 4292, and open interest decreased by 526 [2][22]. - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1831.0, up 2.11%, with a direct difference of - 690.6, yesterday's trading volume was 35117, yesterday's open interest was 30249, and open interest increased by 1335 [2][22]. - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1601.0, up 1.20%, with a direct difference of - 460.6, yesterday's trading volume was 3971, yesterday's open interest was 11509, and open interest increased by 971 [2][22]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1179.6, up 0.67%, with a direct difference of - 39.2, yesterday's trading volume was 1726, yesterday's open interest was 14224, and open interest increased by 170 [2][22]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1397.9, up 1.68%, with a direct difference of - 257.5, yesterday's trading volume was 585, yesterday's open interest was 1377, and open interest decreased by 25 [2][22]. Month - to - Month Spread - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 693.2, the spread decreased by 36.2 compared to the previous day, and decreased by 111.3 compared to last Friday [2][22]. - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 230.0, the spread increased by 18.9 compared to the previous day, and increased by 70.0 compared to last Friday [2][22]. Spot Freight Index - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 1246 US dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period and 7.21% from two periods ago [2][22]. - CCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 1293.12, up 1.99% from the previous period and down 1.49% from two periods ago [2][22]. - NCFI: Updated weekly, as of October 24, 2025, it was 822.3, up 2.38% from the previous period and 14.96% from two periods ago [2][22]. Recent European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for the end of October and early November (Week 44 - 45). In Week 44, the offline quotes were PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, and OA 1800 US dollars. Shipping companies plan to increase prices in November, mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [3][23]. Relevant News - On October 27, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China. On October 26, the China - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day negotiation in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This was the fifth face - to - face negotiation between the two teams since May this year [4][24]. - On October 27, the Israeli government spokesman said that Israel would maintain full security control over the Gaza Strip [4][24].

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.1 纯碱供应——产量稳定高位 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 2025 2024 2023 2022 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 ...

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating for the iron ore industry: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract declined by 0.06%. With the high - level decline in hot metal production, the supply - demand outlook for iron ore is expected to weaken marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis, and position analysis, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided content [7][10] 2. Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China emphasizes adjusting monetary policy according to economic and financial conditions and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicits opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", with strict regulations on steel capacity replacement ratios in different regions [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633 tons, an increase of 1,111 tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $96.95 per ton, an increase of $4.23 per ton from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipments were 6,517.1 tons, an increase of 434.2 tons from the previous month, while Brazil's were 2,819.8 tons, a decrease of 415.9 tons from the first half of the month [18][22] 4. Demand - side Situation - This section involves the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan, and the procurement volume of wire rods and screws at Shanghai terminals, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided content [23][26][28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan per ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan per ton. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14,423.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145.32 tons; the daily port clearance volume was 312.65 tons, a decrease of 3.07 tons; the number of ships at the port was 107, a decrease of 17. In mid - October, the daily output of key steel enterprises showed a mixed trend, and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44% and a year - on - year increase of 2.57%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 1.46%; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.32%; the daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 42,100 tons. In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 141.8 million tons, and China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [31][32][33] 6. Future Outlook - With the high - level decline in hot metal production, the supply - demand outlook for iron ore is expected to weaken marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [34] 7. Operational Strategies - Unilateral: Try short positions lightly at high points within the range. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [35]

工业硅供给端,周度行业库存去库。据咨询商统计,本周内蒙地区开工减少,甘肃地区开工抬升,整体 周产环增。西北地区,新疆工厂前期复产体量,亦会对供应构成增量。此外，西南地区预计将在10月底逐 步减产，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500元/吨（对标 SI2512 合约）,此亦对盘面上 方空间构成明显压制。月度来看,10月份上游环节新疆工厂复产、西南减产偏少,整体 10月份月产将环比 增加;预计10月工业硅产量(原生)将达到44万吨。库存来看,本周期货仓单环比上周小幅减少 0.9万吨。 SMM 统计本周社会库存去库 0.3万吨,厂库库存去库 0.03万吨,整体行业库存去库 0.33万吨,后续关注 期货仓单的注册情况。 2025 年 10月 26 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 张 航 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面价格偏强震荡,现货价格下跌;多晶硅盘面震荡偏弱,现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面呈偏强运行,短期市场消息提振市场情绪,周五收于 8920元/吨。 现货市场价格有所下跌，SMN 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比-50 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural product market shows mixed trends. Eggs are rising, while dates are falling sharply. The rebound of live pigs is limited, and other products such as soybean meal, cotton, etc., each have their own characteristics and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The main contract 2512 continued to rise strongly, driven by improved demand and increased long - position positions. Spot prices increased due to factors like improved demand after cooling weather, lower inventory, and increased culling of old chickens. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2975 and resistance at 3082 [2]. Dates - The main contract 2601 slumped due to increased supply from new dates and sufficient old - date stocks. Inventory increased, and technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 10660 and resistance at 11000 [3]. Soybean Meal - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after a big rise, affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiation news. Domestic factors such as poor crushing profits, slow forward purchasing, and high downstream demand supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 2929 and resistance at 2960 [5]. Cotton - The main contract 2601 adjusted slightly after continuous rises. New cotton acquisition costs increased, downstream spinning mills' operating rates rose, and import volume was low. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 13435 and resistance at 13610 [7]. Corn - The main contract 2601 oscillated and closed down, with a sideways trend due to mixed factors. Northeast new grain harvest and downstream replenishment situation, as well as price trends in North China, affected the price. Technically, it is in consolidation. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 2128 and resistance at 2150 [9]. Live Pigs - The main contract 2601 first declined and then rose, with an oscillating trend. Factors such as the entry of second - fattening and increased frozen - product storage supported the price, but high inventory limited the rebound. Technically, it is oscillating. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 12000 and resistance at 12300 [11]. Apples - The main contract 2601 continued to rise oscillatingly. Different production areas had different market conditions, and concerns about quality supported the price. Technically, it is strong. The recommended strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8728 and resistance at 8900 [13]. Palm Oil - The main contract 2601 continued to fall, affected by increased Malaysian palm oil production and narrowing export growth. Domestically, sufficient arrivals also pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The recommended strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 9080 and resistance at 9180 [16]. Sugar - The main contract 2601 fell slightly after a sharp rise. Import pressure decreased, but new sugar supply increased, limiting the rebound. Technically, the rebound trend is not yet curbed. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions, with support at 5428 and resistance at 5470 [17][19]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Views - For the steel sector, although the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded this week, it remains weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the decline in total inventory is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is now much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the high iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. Summary by Directory I. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: This week's data shows that the apparent demand for rebar continues to rebound but is weaker than the same period last year. Rebar production has increased, but the total inventory decline is slow. Hot-rolled coil inventory has significantly increased and is much higher than the same period. Coke and coking coal prices are strong, providing some support for costs. However, due to the sharp decline in steel mill profits and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil have closed above the 10-day moving average for two consecutive days, indicating a possible end to the downward trend [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be held lightly, and profits should be taken in a timely manner when the price drops [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3,071 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day and 0.72% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill rebar production is 207.07 million tons, an increase of 5.91 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.94%. Hot-rolled coil production is 322.46 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 0.19% [3]. - **Inventory**: The five major varieties of social inventory are 1,099.7 million tons, a decrease of 26.14 million tons from last week, a decline of 2.32%. Rebar social inventory is 437.48 million tons, a decrease of 18.93 million tons from last week, a decline of 4.15%. Hot-rolled coil social inventory is 337.57 million tons, a decrease of 3.77 million tons from last week, a decline of 1.10% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 892.73 million tons, an increase of 17.32 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.98%. Rebar apparent demand is 226.01 million tons, an increase of 6.26 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 2.85% [3]. II. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: High iron ore demand is supported by the high iron output of sample steel mills. However, due to the decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, which will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventories during the peak consumption season has a certain suppressing effect on futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and there are resistances at the 60-day and 10-day moving averages. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through these two important resistance levels [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short positions can be continued to be held [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices have increased to varying degrees. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 777 yuan/dry ton, up 0.39% from the previous day and 0.45% from last week [5]. - **Shipments**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1,729.5 million tons, an increase of 65.3 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 3.92%. Brazilian iron ore shipments are 749 million tons, an increase of 22.1 million tons from last week [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 14,278.27 million tons, an increase of 253.77 million tons from last week, a growth rate of 1.81%. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,291.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from last week, a decline of 0.03% [5]. III. Industry News - **Coal**: Mongolian coal imports have decreased significantly due to political struggles in Mongolia. On Wednesday, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port was 570, a decrease of 43.95% compared to the average daily number in October, and it is expected to gradually recover next week [6]. - **Cement**: In the fourth quarter, the intensity of staggered production in the cement industry has increased, and the monthly average kiln shutdown in some areas exceeds 20 days. Recently, cement prices in many places have shown an upward trend [6]. - **Steel Inventory**: In mid-October, the social inventory of steel products in 21 cities was 9.36 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.1%. The inventory fluctuated slightly [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.1%, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous period. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.91 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - **Rebar**: As of the week of October 23, rebar production increased from a decline, and the factory and social inventories decreased for two consecutive weeks, while the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks [7]. - **Iron Ore Production**: In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore output of Fortescue Metals Group was 50.8 million tons, a decrease of 7% from the previous quarter and an increase of 6% from the same period last year [8]. - **Global Steel Production**: In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 141.8 million tons. China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [8]. - **Glass Inventory**: As of October 23, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% from the previous period, an increase for three consecutive weeks after the festival, reaching a three-month high [8].