2025 年 6 月 4 日 沥青：原油反弹，短线震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 图 1：BU-SC 扩张后高位震荡 图 2：华南增仓后持稳 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 BU-SC 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 黄金：假期间俄乌风波再起 白银：跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 783.10 | 1.46% | 782.08 | -0.46% | | | 黄金T+D | 778.12 | 1.32% | 779.39 | -0.36% | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3313.10 | -0.88% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3289.08 | -0.79% | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8456 | 2.89% | 8476.00 | 0.20% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 84 ...

Report Summary - Investment Rating: Firmly Hold [1] - Core View: Despite ongoing external disturbances such as tariffs and geopolitical disputes, the domestic market has become largely desensitized. The short - end of the market performed the worst today, possibly due to concerns about banks' liability side. It is recommended to extend the duration appropriately and take long positions with light positions [1][3] Market Conditions - Treasury Futures: The treasury futures fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, with most contracts ending in the red. Only the ultra - long - end contracts closed up. After the cross - month period, the capital interest rates dropped significantly, with DR001 weighted average close to 1.4%. In the open market, 830 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase expired, and the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan in new operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [1] - Economic Forecast: The OECD released an economic outlook report on the 3rd, predicting that the US economic growth rate will be 1.6% this year, a 0.6 - percentage - point downgrade from the March forecast, making it one of the major economies with a significant slowdown in growth [2] Data Overview Futures Contracts - TS2509: Closing price 102.352, down 0.046 from the previous trading day; Open interest 121,149, up 1,653 [4] - TF2509: Closing price 105.96, down 0.045; Open interest 163,143, up 899 [4] - T2509: Closing price 108.67, down 0.045; Open interest 190,840, up 77 [4] - TL2509: Closing price 119.45, up 0.04; Open interest 113,610, up 84 [4] Basis and Trading Volume - TS Basis (CTD): - 0.0827, down 0.0033; Trading volume 37,274, up 2,847 [4] - TF Basis (CTD): - 0.0266, up 0.0131; Trading volume 47,214, down 7,839 [4] - T Basis (CTD): - 0.0453, down 0.3965; Trading volume 42,868, down 19,601 [4] - TL Basis (CTD): 0.468, down 0.2; Trading volume 60,835, down 10,208 [4] Capital Interest Rates - DR001: Weighted average 1.4822, up 0.0698; Trading volume 16,522.0063 billion yuan, unchanged [4] - DR007: Weighted average 1.6645, up 0.0315; Trading volume 820.7655 billion yuan, unchanged [4] - DR014: Weighted average 1.7236, up 0.0051; Trading volume 86.3575 billion yuan, unchanged [4]

钢材期货周度报告 2025年06月03日 淡季需求疲弱 成本支撑下移 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡下行，整周全国螺纹钢均价环 比下跌58元/吨。受宏观房地产相关数据整体偏弱影响，市场情 绪偏悲观，加之建筑钢材需求季节性拐点已经出现，需求正式进 入下行通道，供应端产量维持高位，库存去化节奏放缓，价格整 体下跌。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由弱转强，铁水产量略有增加，而品 种产量表现不一。需求端：由于外部因素的不断扰动，市场投机 需求有所放大，但由于季节性天气的影响，各品种市场成交表现 明显不稳。成本端：由于铁矿石、废钢和焦炭价格均小幅下跌， 生产成本支撑力度持续走弱。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权 策略：宽跨式盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢材期货周报 ...

双焦期货周度报告 2025年06月03日 上游持续累库 双焦价格下行 摘 要： 行情回顾：焦炭累积降价两轮100-110元/吨。终端对于炼焦 煤采购节奏放缓，焦钢以去库为主，只维持刚需采购，对原料煤 保持较强的压价意图，而贸易商投机意愿冰冷，降价压力向煤矿 传导顺畅，国内各煤种价格普遍下跌50-150元/吨。 基本面分析：供应端，个别煤矿因事故和检修、产量有所下 滑，另有部分煤矿受库存及亏损压力有减产行为，但主产地煤矿 多数维持正常生产，焦煤产量整体高位维稳。进口方面，甘其毛 都口岸日均通关增加112车，维持高位；澳媒价格坚挺，进口性价 比暂无。需求端，焦炭产量仍维持高位，但提降周期内焦企原料 补库积极性下降，焦煤上游库存压力加剧，流拍现象仍未好转。 总体上，当前焦煤市场供需仍趋宽松。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822- ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.03） 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种：生猪 核心逻辑： 1、供应方面，截至 2025 年 4 月，据农业农村部数据，全国能繁母猪存栏量为 4038 万头，环比持平，同比增长 1.3%。这一数据反映出自 2024 年 4 月以来，产能 累计上升 1.3%，处于较为平稳的格局，暂未出现产能下滑的情况。而根据第三方机 构钢联数据及涌益咨询的数据显示，2025 年 4 月能繁母猪存栏量环比小幅上升，尽 管第三方机构与官方数据在统计口径上存在一定的差异，但环比上涨在一定程度上 体现了市场上暂无去产能的驱动，甚至部分企业开始缓慢恢复产能。5 月份看来， 生猪市场情绪支撑因素仍存，叠加仔猪价格暂未明显下跌，预计上有能繁母猪存栏 量或仍然稳中有增。根据产能数据推算的生猪供应量仍然充足，暂未看到供应量下 降的格局。 2、需求方面，从投机性需求来看，据钢联数据统计，5 月 23 日当周国内重点 屠宰企业的冻品库容率为 17.28%，与上一周持平，处于历史低位。当前由于需求表 现疲软，冻品市场需求暂未改善，出库维持缓慢节奏。而部分屠宰企业现品销售困 难，存在被动分割入库的情况，综合导致 ...

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 7018 386476 | -122 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 16850 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 374550 7018 | -62793 -122 | | | | | 手) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 303349 | 21711 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -22091 | -5906 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 408567 8040 | 22756 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) -64 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 0 874 | -5067 -11 | | | 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250603：或有反弹 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/3 指标 单位 今值 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,400.00 | | | | -1.06% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,620.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | -0.78% | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -220.00 | | | | -45.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -20.00 | | | | - | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -22.17 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -65.20 | | | | 2.09 -3.80 | | | | 价差 | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -85.00 10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 | | | | -50.00 - | | | | 铅 沪铅连二 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：多 PX 空 PTA MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 逢高离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG | 基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 2025-05-26 | 6674 | 4724 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial bond sector is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Chinese economic data in April showed that fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than expected. In May, the official manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May, it was conducive to the recovery of export orders to the US. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures recovered most of the losses on Thursday, and short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Affected by the news of the reversal of the US tariff ruling, last Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated horizontally at a high level after rising. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.56%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.21%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1]. Important Information - **Open Market**: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [1]. - **Funds Market**: Last Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market increased compared with the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the whole day was 1.48% (1.41% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average for the whole day was 1.66% (1.63% the previous day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds decreased compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased 2.58 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year decreased 2.63 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased 1.65 BP to 1.67%, and the 30 - year decreased 2.00 BP to 1.90% [1]. - **Other Information**: In May, the central bank carried out 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. In April, the US core PCE price index increased 2.5% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. The US president announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50%. On June 2, it was announced that the US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November last year [1][3]. Market Logic - Chinese economic growth in April remained resilient. In May, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line, but the production index returned to the expansion range, and new export orders rebounded. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish in the short term [3]. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3].