投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :宏观情绪偏弱，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在68.48万吨，较上周增加2.17%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率84.05%，较上周期减少了0.46个百分点。本周期 | | | | 装置情况来看，周内茂名石化、中化泉州、上海石化等装置存在检修情况，市场存量检修天数增加，因此产能利用率环比上周窄幅下降。 | | | | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.5%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.9%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.2%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 平均开工率较前期-0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of finished products are both in a downward phase during the off - season. The investment data remains weak, and domestic demand is poor. However, exports maintain strong resilience with the advantage of trading volume for price. The supply is in a production - reduction stage, with a rapid contraction in rebar production and a partial repair of supply - demand contradictions. The hot - rolled coil production is still relatively high, with slow inventory depletion and a weaker fundamental situation compared to rebar. During the recent production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be restored. Operators are advised to be cautious [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rebar Futures**: On December 5, 2025, RB2605 closed at 3157 (down 18 from the previous day), RB2610 at 3192 (down 17), and RB2601 at 3137 (down 11). The spreads such as RB10 - RB01, RB05 - RB10 also changed. The 05, 10, and 01 contract rebar disk profits were 16, 62, and 36 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous day [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 5, 2025, HC2605 closed at 3320 (down 15 from the previous day), HC2610 at 3329 (down 15), and HC2601 at 3312 (down 11). The spreads such as HC10 - HC01, HC05 - HC10 changed. The 05, 10, and 01 contract hot - rolled coil disk profits were - 71, - 51, and - 39 respectively, with corresponding changes [2] - **Night - Session Futures**: RB2601 closed at 3120, RB2605 at 3132, HC2601 at 3301, and HC2605 at 3304. The rebar 1 - 5 spread was - 12 yuan, the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread was - 3 yuan. The January contract coil - rebar spread was 181 yuan, and the May contract coil - rebar spread was 172 yuan [2] Spot Market - **Rebar Spot**: On December 5, 2025, the prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, Shandong Shiheng, and Tangshan Tanggang changed. The cheapest delivery product was 3240 yuan, and the 05, 10, and 01 contract basis had corresponding values [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in regions like Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Rigang changed. The cheapest delivery product was 3300 yuan, and the 05, 10, and 01 contract basis also had corresponding values [2] - **Other Spot Products**: The prices of products such as Tangshan billet, East China scrap steel, Lecong Magang cold - rolled steel, and Shanghai Magang cold - rolled steel remained stable or changed slightly. There were also changes in spot regional price differences and spot profits [2] Important Information - **Production Line Maintenance**: Last week, 25 production lines in steel mills in 15 provinces were under maintenance (14 more than the previous week), and 2 production lines were restarted (4 fewer than the previous week). The production affected by maintenance was 3.78 tons (5.25 tons more than the previous week), and it is expected to be 44.3 tons this week [2] - **Pollution Response**: Many places have launched emergency responses to heavy pollution weather. Luoyang launched an orange - level warning on December 7 at 17:00, Changsha launched a first - level response at 20:00 on December 7, and Cangzhou, Handan, Xingtai, and Xi'an launched first - level emergency responses at 12:00 on December 8 [2] - **Rebar Market Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the national average rebar price was 3326 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.14%, the inventory was 503.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.21%, and the consumption was 216.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81% [2] - **Commodity Transactions**: On December 5, the iron ore transactions at major national ports were 86.40 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%, and the construction steel transactions of 237 major trading companies were 8.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1% [2] - **Electric Arc Furnace Data**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 53.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.43 percentage points. The average start - up rate was 67.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] Long - Short Logic - The prices of some common carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton over the weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. The prices of construction steel in major domestic markets were stable with a slight decline, and trading was light [2] Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy was provided in the report

2025 年 12 月 08 日 鸡蛋：现货震荡 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,117 | -0.29 | -74,855 | 159 | | | 鸡蛋2602 | 3,589 | 0.40 | -34,284 | 2,851 | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | 差 价 | 鸡蛋1-2价差 | | 103 | 116 | | | | 鸡蛋2-5价差 | | -472 | -476 | | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.00 | 3.10 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.64 | 2.64 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.00 | 3.10 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 2.93 | 2.98 | | | | | | 最新日 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting a low - buying strategy for polysilicon as an anti - involution core target, and also calls attention to the fermentation of the Xinjiang environmental protection incident regarding industrial silicon [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, Si2601's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume was 170,669 lots, and the open interest was 196,943 lots. For polysilicon, PS2601's closing price was 55,510 yuan/ton, down 1,405 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 159,380 lots and an open interest of 97,991 lots [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +645 yuan/ton, while polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 3510 yuan/ton [2] - **Prices**: Xinjiang 99 silicon was priced at 8900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 at 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material at 52300 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 were - 2464.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 were - 3576 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits were 7.7 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.8 million tons, enterprise inventory was 18.3 million tons, and industry inventory was 74.1 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory was 29.1 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 270 yuan/ton. Other raw materials like washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes also had corresponding prices [2] - **Prices in Related Industries**: In the polysilicon (photovoltaic) industry, silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) were 1.48 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) were 0.283 yuan/watt, etc. In the organic silicon industry, DMC was 13600 yuan/ton, and in the aluminum alloy industry, ADC12 was 21700 yuan/ton [2] - **Profits in Related Industries**: DMC enterprise profits were 1729 yuan/ton, and regenerative aluminum enterprise profits were - 390 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - On December 3rd, the Development and Reform Commission of Qinhuangdao, Hebei, released a public notice on the application for the third - batch project construction of wind and photovoltaic power generation in 2025. There were 7 projects in total, with a total scale of 782,500 kilowatts, including 4 wind power projects with a scale of 282,500 kilowatts and 3 photovoltaic projects with a scale of 500,000 kilowatts. Project owners included PetroChina, PowerChina, and other companies [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was also 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 棉花：涨势放缓 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 12 月 5 日当周，ICE 棉花小幅下跌，美国农业部补上的 10 月份美棉的出口数据仍然不理想，令 ICE 棉花承压，不过受预期美联储 12 月将降息影响，整体金融市场风险偏好较好，使得 ICE 棉花期货的 跌幅有限。 国内棉花期货和现货小幅走强，基差微跌整体仍偏坚挺。相对稳定的高基差继续支撑棉花期货，不过 随着期货上涨，套保压力也陆续有所体现，而且下游产品的价格和订单有所转差，再加上棉花仓单继续增 加（单周仓单+有效预报增加约 5 万吨仓单，主要是内地的仓单+有效预报），令郑棉期货的上涨有所放 缓。预计郑棉期货维持震荡偏强的走势，但是上涨空间可能有限，注意现货基差的变化。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 （正文） 1. 行情数据 表 1:棉花、棉纱期货数据 | | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅（%） | 成交量（手） | 成交量变化（手） | 持 ...

华联期货：PVC关注盘面前低支撑 供应端开工率环比回升，今年新增供应压力较大，明年开始几乎没有新增产能。需求端制品开工率走 低，终端逐步进入需求淡季。出口方面，印度终止对进口PVC的BIS政策利多，但要关注后期反倾销后 期落地情况。库存端社库厂库均有增加，注册仓单自高位有所减少。成本方面电石乙烯价格弱稳，估值 驱动不足，不过氯碱综合利润持续下滑，关注后期是否影响上游开工率。短期化工建材系偏弱，总体看 PVC供需仍维持弱现实强预期，但绝对价格估值偏低，关注盘面前低支撑。操作方面，2605合约中线多 单进场暂谨慎持有，持有看跌期权保护。 12月5日盘中，PVC期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至4413.00元。截止发稿，PVC主力合约 报4418.00元，跌幅1.89%。 PVC期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 光大期货 PVC价格或趋于底部震荡 冠通期货 近期PVC偏弱震荡 华联期货 PVC关注盘面前低支撑 光大期货：PVC价格或趋于底部震荡 供应端，12月企业检修低谷，产量将继续增长；需求端，从水泥发运率和螺纹钢表观需求的数据来看， 房地产施工将逐步走弱，对于PV ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月05日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23120，基差+255；偏多。 3、库存：12月4日LME锌库存较上日增加1875吨至54325吨，12月4日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少1569至62028吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均 ...

2025 年 12 月 5 日 沥青：低位震荡，厂库小累 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2601 | 元/吨 | 2,952 | 0.00% | 2,938 | -0.47% | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,963 | 0.07% | 2,947 | -0.54% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2601 | 手 | 129,735 | (121,328) | 104,372 | (8,340) | | | BU2602 | 手 | 107,393 | (53,914) | 173,081 | (2,537) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 6060 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - **Lead**: SMM research shows that the supply of raw materials for recycled lead smelters has tightened recently, and some smelters may reduce production due to raw material shortages. With improved macro - sentiment, the lead price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The trading strategy is to try long positions at low prices [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is tightening, and the treatment charge is likely to decline. Although the supply of zinc ingots is currently stable, the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be mainly range - bound, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 17,100 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price is 17,245 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 1,998.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 37,288 lots, up 38.02%, and the open interest is 46,582 lots, down 0.10%. The LME inventory is 248,050 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 16,553 tons, down 0.46% [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots is 22,920 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the futures main contract closing price is 22,865 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 3,062 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 164,347 lots, up 54.44%, and the open interest is 105,684 lots, up 1.05%. The LME inventory is 54,325 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 62,028 tons, down 2.47% [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the treatment charge is likely to rise. The start - up rate of primary lead and recycled lead has declined, and the inventory of primary lead has increased while that of recycled lead has decreased. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, while the automobile battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. - **Zinc**: Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc concentrates, and the domestic supply of concentrates is tight, with the treatment charge expected to decline. The refinery's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side is still weak [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Lead**: Try to go long at low prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Wait and see [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2601 震荡 偏强 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕 ...