Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead Market**: The lead price has been rising due to raw material constraints and reduced production in the secondary lead sector. However, as the market is not yet in the peak - consumption season, there is a risk of inventory accumulation, which may limit the upward momentum of the lead price [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The zinc price has rebounded recently due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. But after the rebound, it has suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to inventory accumulation. The upside potential is limited, and investors should watch for short - selling opportunities when favorable factors disappear [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead Market** - **Price Movements**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price remained unchanged from the previous day, while the Shanghai lead futures main contract closed 0.44% higher than the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) closed at $2,063.50 per ton, up 1.20%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.32, down 0.75% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, rising scrap lead - acid battery prices, limited recycler supplies, and strong hoarding sentiment among stores have led to some refineries reducing or halting production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. The inventory of secondary lead products is increasing [1]. - **Demand**: The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve, which may reduce the downward pressure on lead prices [1]. - **Industry News**: A secondary lead smelter in the western region with a capacity of 200,000 tons suspended production in May due to equipment failures and is expected to complete repairs by late July. If equipment debugging goes smoothly, it may resume normal production in August. Recently, domestic reduced lead supplies have been tight, and prices have been firm. Overseas crude lead (mostly from Malaysia) arrived at the port this week, with a known trading volume of about 1,000 tons [1]. **Zinc Market** - **Price Movements**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price increased by 0.05% from the previous day, while the Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed 0.11% lower. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) closed at $2,753.00 per ton, up 1.46%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.07, down 1.55% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees have been rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 3,800 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index rose by $9.98/dry ton to $65.25/dry ton. The production of zinc is showing an increasing trend [1]. - **Demand**: The zinc price rebound has reached a level that downstream buyers find unacceptable, and the weak demand has led to mainly just - in - time purchases [1]. - **Industry News**: On July 1, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $18.75 per ton, with open interest increasing by 842 to 208,381 contracts [1].

PP：现货小跌，成交平淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 2025 年 7 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | PP 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2509 | 7072 | 0.34% | 223,735 | -12023 | | | | 昨日价差 | | | 前日价差 | | 价 差 | 09合约基差 | -22 | | | 6 | | | 09-01合约价差 | 4 4 | | | 4 8 | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | 华北 | 7000 - 7150 | | 7010 - | 7150 | | | 华东 | 7050 - 7200 | | 7050 - | 7220 | | | 华南 | 7060 - 7220 | | 7080 - | 7220 | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 ...

2025年07月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG止盈 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：随油小涨 | 8 | | PP：现货小跌，成交平淡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡运行格局延续 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 21 | | 燃料油：震荡走势为主，短期波动下降 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘小幅走弱，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 25 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 29 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，多PR空PF | 29 | | 胶版印刷纸：震荡运行 | 30 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Go long on PX in the event of a price dip and initiate a calendar spread trade [1] - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA [1] - MEG: Take profit on the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [1] 2. Core Views - The market is focused on potential supply contractions due to the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a significant increase in black building materials futures. Polyester performance remains mediocre. The main issue in the polyester industry is insufficient demand [6]. - Crude oil prices have risen significantly, providing strong support for PX valuation. Multiple PX plants are under maintenance, resulting in a decline in domestic operating rates. Overall, the supply - demand situation for PX is tight [6]. - PTA's basis dropped significantly yesterday, but supply in July is slightly tight, still attracting buyers. The calendar spread may face pressure. After the reduction in bottle - chip production, polyester load has dropped to 89%, and PTA supply has increased month - on - month [6]. - There have been significant changes in overseas MEG plants. The overall increase in MEG supply is limited. With coal prices rebounding from the bottom and losses in the ethylene - purchased process, the downside space for MEG prices is limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: Naphtha prices rebounded slightly at the end of the session. PX prices declined today, with an August Asian spot trading at $875 and a September Asian spot at $854. The PX valuation closed at $861/ton, down $13 from yesterday [2]. - **PTA**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Dalian, owned by Hengli, restarted at the end of the month after maintenance in mid - June. A 2 - million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to about 50% due to an incident, expected to last about 4 days [3]. - **MEG**: From June 30 to July 6, the expected arrivals at Zhangjiagang Port are about 68,000 tons, at Taicang Port about 67,000 tons, at Ningbo Port about 15,000 tons, and at Shanghai Port about 0 tons. The total expected arrivals at major ports are about 150,000 tons [3]. - **Polyester**: A direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in Ningbo plans to shut down a 30,000 - ton fine - denier hollow staple fiber production line this weekend for about 20 days of technical renovation. Yisheng's polyester bottle - chip plant in Hainan (1.25 million tons) started maintenance on July 1, with the restart time undetermined, while the planned maintenance of a 350,000 - ton plant in Dahua was cancelled. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak today, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales - to - production ratio of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 47% by 3:00 pm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Historical Sales Data - In June, the average sales - to - production ratio of mainstream direct - spinning filament plants in China was about 97% (calculated based on shipments), down 5 percentage points from the previous month. The sales atmosphere in the filament market was weak in June due to strong costs and weakening demand [5].

商 品 研 究 沥青：随油小涨 2025 年 7 月 3 日 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,606 | 0.08% | 3,606 | 0.00% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,588 | 0.25% | 3,591 | 0.08% | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 2,195 | (1,365) | 3,144 | (743) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 3,502 | (3,008) | 18,983 | (190) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 95510 | -850 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. The end of coking coal supply disruptions and the verification of future startup data are awaited. Iron ore inventory remains flat, and its valuation depends on finished product demand. Short - term Tangshan production restrictions may interfere with the market. Observe the pressure around 3150 for hot - rolled coils and 3050 for rebar [1]. - Iron Ore: The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated weakly yesterday. This week, global iron ore shipments decreased, and the arrival volume at ports dropped significantly. The demand side has high - level pig iron production, but there is a risk of weakening terminal demand in the off - season. In the future, pig iron production in July is expected to decline, and iron ore may turn to a moderately weak operation in the short term. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [5]. - Coke: As of yesterday's close, coke futures oscillated downward, and the spot market remained stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is showing signs of a bottom. Supply may increase, demand will decline slightly, and inventory is at a medium level. A hedging strategy is recommended for the 2601 contract, and speculative investors are advised to wait and see [6]. - Coking Coal: As of yesterday's close, coking coal futures oscillated downward, and the spot market was moderately strong. The domestic coking coal market is showing signs of stabilization, and the supply may increase. The demand has some resilience, and inventory is at a medium level. A hedging strategy is recommended for the 2601 contract, and speculative investors are advised to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices were mostly stable, with some minor fluctuations. Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil had small increases. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu had different trends, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions had varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products increased. The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly, the rebar inventory decreased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased, and the apparent demand for five major steel products and hot - rolled coils decreased, while the apparent demand for rebar increased slightly [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price indices all decreased. The spreads between different contracts also changed [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped significantly. The demand side had high - level pig iron production, and the daily average port ore removal volume increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased, and the number of available days of inventory for 64 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices oscillated downward, and the spot market remained stable. Coking coal futures prices also oscillated downward, and the spot market was moderately strong. The basis and spreads of coke and coking coal changed, and the profits of coking plants and coal mines decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coke and coking coal had different trends. After the end of environmental inspections in June, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke and coking coal is expected to decline slightly in July, with pig iron production remaining at 230 - 240 tons per day [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke and coking coal showed different trends. Coke inventory decreased, and coking coal inventory was at a medium level with different parts showing different changes [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 | | | | 海外商品涨跌幅 | | | | | | 塑料 | | 7249 | -0.17% | -0.73% | -0.17% | 1.38% | -11.36% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | | PP | 7044 | -0.37% | -0.83% | -0.37% | -0.75% | -5.79% | | 能源 | NYMEX WTI原油 | 64.97 | -0.15% | -0.15% | | 2.85% | -9.60% | | | PVC | 4821 | -1.39% | -1.99% | -1.39% | -2.82% | -8.87% | | | ICE布油 | 66.63 | 0.44% | 0.44% | | 1.22% | -10.9 ...

| 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 6794 | 4800 | 4273 | 6592 | 499.4 | | | 涨跌 | 6796 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 2.7 | | | 涨跌幅 | -2 | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.76% | 0.54% | | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 160 | 126 | -21 | 110 | 6.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 194 | 144 | -27 | 78 | 7.2 | | | 涨跌 | -34 | -18 | 6 | 32 | -0.6 | | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | | 金/吨 ...

2025 年 07 月 01 日 短纤：短期震荡 瓶片：短期震荡，多 PR 空 PF 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【现货消息】 短纤：直纺涤短今日期货维持盘整，现货工厂报价维持，成交商谈。下游维持刚需采购，部分低位成交 尚可。期现基差维持，新拓货源 08+200，中磊 08+220~250，三房货源 08+150~170 元/吨。今日直纺涤短销 售一般，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 43%，部分工厂产销：50%、40%、20%、50%、30%、30%、40%、 60%、20%、30%。 瓶片：聚酯原料期货小幅收涨，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交一般，个别瓶片大厂 8 月订单放量成交。6-9 月订单多成交在 5980-6080 元/吨出厂不等，局部少量略高 6100-6120 元/吨出厂不等， 品牌不同价格略有差异。 （资料来源：华瑞信息，金十数据） 【趋势强度】 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2507 | 昨日 6680 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The natural rubber market is expected to be weak due to increased supply and weakening demand, with short positions above 14,000 to be held [4][6]. - The polysilicon market faces a mismatch between weak demand and复产 expectations, with prices likely to be under pressure in July. Short positions should be held cautiously [7][8]. - The industrial silicon market may experience low - level fluctuations. Large - scale enterprise production cuts have driven up futures prices, but there are still uncertainties in demand and inventory [8][10]. - The soda ash market is again dominated by the surplus logic, and the glass market has weakened as spot sales have declined. High - level short positions in soda ash should be held, and the glass price is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [11][13]. 3. Summary by Variety Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices**: As of June 30, cup rubber was 48.05 (+0.90) Thai baht/kg, and latex was 56.00 (-1.00) Thai baht/kg. Yunnan glue acquisition price was 13,600 (0) yuan/ton, and Hainan fresh latex was 13,800 (0) yuan/ton [4]. - **Tire Data**: As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [4]. - **Logic**: Overseas supply is increasing, and some semi - steel tire enterprises are reducing production due to inventory pressure. The price is expected to be weak, and short positions above 14,000 should be held [6]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices**: On June 30, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 34,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of P - type cauliflower material was 28,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of June 26, the weekly output decreased by 900 tons to 23,600 tons. It is expected that the output will increase in July. The demand is continuously decreasing, and downstream product prices are falling [7]. - **Inventory**: On June 26, the polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 27 million tons [8]. - **Logic**: In July, the futures price increased with reduced positions. The cost of industrial silicon provides support, but the demand is still weak. The price is likely to be under pressure if there is no significant production cut [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices**: On June 26, the average market price of oxygen - containing Si5530 industrial silicon in East China was 8,150 yuan/ton, and that of Si4210 was 8,700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May 2025, the output increased by 2.3% month - on - month. In June, the output is expected to reach 340,000 - 350,000 tons. The demand has recovered, but the terminal demand is still weak [9]. - **Inventory**: Warehouse receipts, social inventory, and factory inventory have all decreased [9]. - **Logic**: Large - scale enterprise production cuts have driven up futures prices, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase. The price may fluctuate at a low level [10]. Soda Ash - **Spot Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of heavy soda ash was around 1,300 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the domestic soda ash output was 716,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7669 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [11]. - **Logic**: The surplus logic dominates the market again. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. High - level short positions should be held [12][13]. Glass - **Spot Prices**: The average transaction price in Shahe was around 1,100 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of June 26, the daily output of national float glass was 156,800 tons, a 0.87% increase from the 19th. This week, the output was 1.0909 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [11]. - **Logic**: Spot sales have weakened. The market is in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [13].