本周A股市场上行，上证指数创年内新高3497.23点后回落，最终收于3472.32点。中美双 方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果，A股新开户数快速增长等为市场上涨提供了良好氛 围，同时银行板块稳步上涨，热点板块轮动形成一定赚钱效应，最终促成市场较好表现。但 沪深两市成交额略减，日均成交额相比前周减少392亿元。港股表现较弱，恒生指数和恒生 科技指数本周均下行，港股互联网、港股消费下行对港股指数拖累较大。 股股债债跷跷跷跷板板？？不不存存在在的的 22002255年年66月月3300日日--22002255年年77月月44日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股、债市上涨，港股收跌，美股继续新高。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要方面： 01 具体到不同资产上， 我们本周观点如下： 股票 本周A股和港股一涨一跌，面对"新高"的A股和"不跟涨"的港股，很多投资者可能迫切想理清市场 脉络。其实港股的表现有点意外，但也在情理中，一方面，作为恒生指数和恒生科技重要成分的互 联网公司"内卷"令市场对中报业绩有所担忧，叠加618已过市场关注度下降，另一方面港股市场对 回报率的要求较高，当前港股的潜在回报率的确在历史相对低位，吸 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing strong performance driven by active credit expansion from commercial banks, despite a contraction in total demand from the real economy [2][3] - The banking sector has been a core driver of the market, contributing significantly to the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index, with the banking index up over 15% year-to-date [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying structural opportunities and directions rather than focusing solely on the overall market index performance [1][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that the current market environment is characterized by a shift towards quality growth, moving away from low-end manufacturing and investment-driven growth models [60][64] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize resource allocation and enhance supply quality, which is expected to impact traditional industries such as steel, cement, and photovoltaic glass positively [54][55] - The report highlights that the current phase of the A-share market is in a transition from old to new economic drivers, with a focus on new consumption and technology sectors [4][9] Group 3 - The report notes that the inflow of southbound funds has resumed, with significant investments in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and high-dividend stocks, indicating a shift in investment focus [23][28] - The report discusses the importance of monitoring the balance of stock and bond asset allocation, as the low-interest-rate environment has led to a pronounced "see-saw" effect between equity and bond markets [50][52] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics are reminiscent of previous years, where consumer and technology sectors drove market performance amid structural adjustments [9][31] Group 4 - The report outlines that the current economic environment allows for a target growth rate of around 5% for the year, with no significant risk of economic slowdown [4][60] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to lead to a reduction in excess capacity and improve profitability in various sectors, particularly in traditional industries facing intense competition [63][64] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous observation of the market's response to policy changes and economic indicators, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade negotiations and fiscal policies in the U.S. [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the environment of the stock - bond seesaw, convertible bonds maintain a relatively high valuation. Although the overall valuation premium has been compressed last week, some industries actively increased their valuations, and there were even cases where the underlying stocks fell while the convertible bonds rose. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is limited, with the median price of the entire convertible bond market rising to 124 yuan and the valuation remaining at a relatively high level, narrowing the space for bond selection [2]. - Next week may be an important time point for the end of the current round of capital idling. It is necessary to focus on whether the stock - bond cost - effectiveness can return to favoring bonds. At the current level, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - effectiveness than value - style equity assets. If the value - style equity assets continue to decline, a good entry window may appear [3]. - The latest convertible bond portfolio has a zero position in equity - style convertible bonds and is fully allocated to value - style double - low and low - price convertible bonds (bond - like assets), with a total position of 70%. Among them, value - style low - price convertible bonds have a long remaining time and the expectation of downward adjustment, and the liquidity brought by the delisting of bank convertible bonds should be gradually deployed at low levels. Value - style double - low convertible bonds currently have dual advantages in terms of underlying stocks and convertible bonds [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock - Bond and Convertible Bond Market Review - Last week, the theme of the equity market rotated rapidly. Affected by overseas news and capital market fluctuations, the stock - bond seesaw was obvious. On Monday, the stock index rose collectively, with military, stablecoin concept, brain - computer interface, and semiconductor leading the gains. The bond market adjusted comprehensively, with bearish sentiment prevailing. On Tuesday, after the cross - quarter, the capital market eased, the bond market strengthened, and the stock market fluctuated and adjusted. On Friday, the US June non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July and September. The cross - border payment, bank, game, power, steel, and innovative drug sectors led the gains, and the bond market oscillated strongly without a clear trading theme [1]. Convertible Bond Market Analysis - Valuation: Currently, convertible bonds still maintain a relatively high valuation compared to the underlying stocks. Last week, the overall valuation premium was compressed, but some industries actively increased their valuations. The median price of the entire convertible bond market rose to 124 yuan, and the valuation remained at a relatively high level. The space for bond selection has narrowed, and the proportion of inert convertible bonds with pending valuation adjustment is the largest. The median conversion premium rate decreased slightly to 28.9% (historical quantile of 58%), the implied volatility remained at around 30% (historical quantile of 65%), and the median implied volatility difference remained at around - 15% (historical quantile of 36%) [2]. - Market sentiment: Last week, the average daily trading volume of the entire convertible bond market was 60.2 billion yuan, a 7% increase from the previous week. The trading of traditional speculative bonds such as newly issued bonds, low - rated convertible bonds, and double - high convertible bonds remained sluggish. In the volatile stock - bond market environment, the market tends to trade varieties with stronger option elasticity, such as small - cap stocks and newly issued AAA - rated convertible bonds, whose valuations are suppressed [2]. Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Market outlook: Next week may be an important time point for the end of the current round of capital idling. It is necessary to focus on whether the stock - bond cost - effectiveness can return to favoring bonds. At the current level, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - effectiveness than value - style equity assets. If the value - style equity assets continue to decline, a good entry window may appear [3]. - Strategy recommendations: The top - down broad - based portfolio view is an 80% position in equity value - style assets and a 20% position in 30 - year treasury bond ETFs. The latest convertible bond portfolio has a zero position in equity - style convertible bonds and is fully allocated to value - style double - low and low - price convertible bonds (bond - like assets), with a total position of 70%. The convertible bond broad - based portfolio underperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 0.42 percentage points last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, it has outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 15.5 percentage points, with a maximum drawdown of 7.7% (compared to 7.5% for the CSI Convertible Bond Index during the same period) [4].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人，远超 预期的11万人， 4月和5月就业人数合计上修1.6万人。失业率 意外降至4.1%，预期为升至4.3%。美国上周初请失业金人数 23.3万人，创六周新低。评：美国非农大幅超预期，市场降低 了对7月降息的押注，黄金进一步上涨动力不足，如果美元持续 反弹，将利空黄金。市场关注地缘及关税扰动。黄金中期震荡 格局并未改变，关注美元走势，美元和黄金跷跷板是近期主要 逻辑。 【短评-原油】特朗普"大而美法案"结束对太阳能和风能 长期支持，为石油、天然气和煤炭生产营造友好环境，该法案 已获参众两院通过，待特朗普签署成法律；特朗普"大而美法 案"结束对太阳能和风能长期支持，为石油、天然气和煤炭生 产营造友好环境，该法案已获参众两院通过，待特朗普签署成 法律；贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止7月3日的一周，美国在 线钻探油井数量425座，为2021年9月份以来最低，比前周减少7 座。评："大而美法案"为传统能源营造友好环境，关注7月6 日OPEC+产量政策，目前OPEC+维持增产的立场不变，需求偏 弱。短期需求旺季，低库存使得油价较抗跌，长期供需预 ...

【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议， 越南对美出口商品将被征收20%关税，任何转运货物将被征收 40%的关税。另外，越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税 费。评：关说谈判及相关制裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡 化，市场未来关注焦点是地缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指 数再度走弱，提振黄金，黄金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关 注美元指数走势。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变，短期震荡偏 多，但上方空间有限。 投资咨询中心 2025年07月03日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】本周Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开 工率59.72%较上期增0.62%；日均产量50.59万吨增0.45万吨； 原煤库存312.17万吨减9.11万吨；精煤库存214.98万吨减16.89 万吨。评：供应端煤矿产量稳步复产，但阶段性补库节奏下， 部分煤种供应略显吃紧，近日成交有明显好转，炼焦煤线上竞 拍流拍率已连续多日处于低位，成交价格有不同程度反弹，但 短期内供需基 ...

Market Review and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 1110 billion, 6416 billion, and 1150 billion respectively, with net financing of 1110 billion, 5604 billion, and 1093 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 839 billion with a net financing of 612 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 2889 billion and a net financing of 11 billion [1] - The secondary market exhibited a fluctuating performance influenced by factors such as cross-quarter liquidity, the ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict, military parade news, and market sentiment [1] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) showed a net injection, and the medium-term lending facility (MLF) was rolled over, supporting the cross-quarter liquidity [1] - The R001 and R007 rates increased by 1.2 basis points and 32.9 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [1] Policy and Fundamentals - In May, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative, impacted by base effect, price wars, and tariff shocks [1] - High-frequency data indicates stable production, sluggish consumption, and continued pressure on prices, with a significant drop in oil prices following the ceasefire [1] Overseas Market - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish views, and weakening economic data in the U.S. has raised market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.29%, down 9 basis points from the previous week [1] Equity Market - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a rise in most broad-based A-share indices, with the total A-share index increasing by 3.56% and the ChiNext index rising by 5.69% [2] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares surged to 1.49 trillion, with a weekly increase of 2716.46 billion [2] - As of June 26, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares reached 18265.35 billion, an increase of 173.68 billion from June 19 [2] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favoring the bond market are increasing in July, although the central bank's monetary policy tone may lead to a temporary market sentiment adjustment [2] - Historical trends suggest that bond market bullish forces may strengthen in July due to seasonal liquidity easing and reduced bank liability pressure [2] - A recommended strategy includes a combination of short to medium-term credit bonds and long-duration government bonds [2] - The convertible bond market faces supply-demand imbalances, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, leading to a scarcity of underlying assets [2]

Core Insights - The issuance of equity funds has reached a ten-year high, with stock funds accounting for 35.46% of total issuance, the highest proportion in nearly a decade [1][3] - The market for public funds has seen a resurgence, particularly in equity funds, driven by improved performance and market conditions [2][3] - Index products, especially ETFs, are the primary focus for many large fund companies in their upcoming strategies [1][5] Fund Issuance Trends - As of June 30, the A-share market has rebounded by 11.23%, leading to a significant improvement in equity fund performance, with over 80% of 7216 comparable equity funds achieving positive returns in the first half of the year [2][3] - In June alone, 155 new funds were issued, raising a total of 122.12 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 86% from the previous month [2] - The number of newly established equity funds reached 387, with a total issuance of 188.06 billion yuan, a 1.83 times increase compared to the same period last year [3] Focus on Index and "Fixed Income +" - Currently, over 70% of the funds being issued or planned are equity products, with index products being particularly favored [5][6] - Fund companies are focusing on innovative index products, including those related to hard technology and diversified asset allocation [6][7] - "Fixed Income +" products are also gaining traction due to their ability to balance returns and investor experience in volatile markets [6][7] Market Outlook - As the market enters the second half of the year, institutions are expected to continue focusing on index and "Fixed Income +" products, with many companies planning to launch new funds [4][5] - Some companies are exploring innovative product directions and considering the issuance of bond funds, indicating a diversification strategy [7]

刚进入股市时，就被灌输过一个理念："市场永远是对的"，但后来却发现，市场不一定永远是对的。如 果是因为人性弱点导致的波动，那可能就是市场在犯错，而我们就可以利用这个错误来进行操作。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250701— "股债跷跷板"失灵（-财新制造业PMI偏强-股市小幅上涨+尾盘资金转松+国债发行缩 量=微下)】 资金面收敛转松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1310亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有4065亿元逆回购到期，净回笼2755亿元。 -------------------------- 尾盘利率一波0.4BP的"巨幅"下行，债农惊呼：莫不是央妈公告买债了？定睛一看，原来是财爸公告周 五国债发行节奏开始放缓：7Y国债发行1090亿（上一期为1700亿）、10Y国债发行1310亿（上一期为 1700亿）。 今日股市延续涨势，但"股债跷跷板"略显失灵。债农淡定：慌啥？领涨的是咱"避险资产"同门师兄—— 银行。你看人家花旗对黄金的展望，主打一个"随机应变"，咱债农也一样"专业灵活"：昨天上了？剑指 1.7%！今天下了？格局1.6%！ -------------------------- 【今日 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】欧盟决定将针对俄罗斯的制裁措施再延长6 个月，至2026年1月31日。相关措施覆盖俄罗斯贸易、金融、能 源、技术和军民两用产品等多个领域。评：关税谈判及相关制 裁一直存在，但是市场对其已经淡化，市场未来关注焦点是地 缘政治及美联储降息预期。美元指数再度走弱，提振黄金，黄 金短期上涨，但上涨动力有限，关注美元指数走势。黄金中期 震荡格局并未改变，短期震荡偏多，但上方空间有限。 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2790元/吨，下降30元 /吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存67.05万吨，周上升14.34%；甲醇 样本生产企业库存34.16万吨，周减少2.58万吨；样本企业订单 待发24.07万吨，周下降3.31万吨；甲醇开工91.31%，周上升 2.65%；下游总产能利用率75.57%，周下降0.2%。评：成本端煤 炭价格预期较稳，国内甲醇开工预期高位运行，下游需求较 稳，本周预计进口到货有所减量，港口或去库。内地甲醇市场 偏弱，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差小幅走弱，整体 商谈成交一般。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡运行，上方压力2400 一线，建议空单谨慎持有。 投资咨询中心 ...

| 重点关注 | 7月01日 16:00 欧元区6月制造业PMI终值 7月01日 22:00 美国6月ISM制造业PMI 7月02日 20:15 美国6月ADP就业人数(万人) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | | | | | 研究员： | | 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 | 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...