Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is above 8.342, with a recent increase of 0.77% to 8.368 per gram, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The key support level for silver is identified between 8.131 and 8.200 per gram, with a potential downward pressure if this range is breached [3] - The resistance level for silver is concentrated between 8.410 and 8.490 per gram, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a test of the critical level at 8.500 per gram [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing pressure for interest rate cuts, while also expressing concerns about the declining quality of economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics [2] - Economists have noted that approximately 30% of the CPI data for May was estimated, which is three times the historical average, raising concerns about the accuracy of inflation and employment data [2] - The May non-farm payroll report indicated an addition of 139,000 jobs, but analysts believe this number may be revised down to around 100,000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Kashkari, acknowledges positive inflation data but emphasizes the need for further clarity on how tariffs will impact prices before making significant policy adjustments [1] Group 1 - Recent inflation data over the past two to three months has been described as "quite positive," indicating that the anti-inflation path is on track [1] - The Federal Reserve has not yet seen the full impact of tariffs, leading to a cautious approach in understanding the situation before altering policy outlooks [1] - Some Federal Reserve officials support the possibility of interest rate cuts as early as July, but Chairman Powell indicates a reluctance to rush into cuts while awaiting economic responses to new policies, including tariffs [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：关税的影响在未来几个月可能会进一步增强。关税对通胀数据的全面影响还需要时间 才能显现。 ...

美联储哈玛克：最新的通胀数据令人振奋。 ...

与此同时，美联储新任监管副主席鲍曼也表态支持降息，认为在通胀可控的情况下，调整利率有助于维持健康的劳动力市场。不过，美联储仍保持谨慎态 度，特别是近期的重点地缘风险持续上升，全球经济不确定性进一步增加。 市场分析认为，美联储的降息预期将取决于未来几个月的通胀数据。如果关税影响持续有限，且就业市场保持稳定，七月或九月可能成为政策调整的关键时 点。古尔斯比的言论强化了市场对宽松政策的期待，但最终决策仍需更多经济数据的支持。 上周，美联储决定维持利率在百分之四点二五到四点五区间不变，但为下半年降息敞开大门。点阵图显示，美联储十九位官员中有十人预计今年至少降息两 次，两人支持降息一次，显示内部仍存在一定分歧。古尔斯比指出，目前的关键在于观察关税对经济的后续影响，尤其是价格传导机制是否会在未来几个月 显现。 值得注意的是，部分行业已出现"成本转嫁"现象，即关税负担在供应链各环节分摊，而非完全由消费者承担。古尔斯比表示："我们正在评估，这是否意味 着通胀压力已被消化，还是未来数据会出现新的变化。"这一观察与美联储理事沃勒的观点一致，沃勒上周五表示，如果通胀保持稳定，最早可能在七月降 息。 智通财经六月二十四日讯，美联储近 ...

Group 1 - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that if recent tariff increases do not lead to significant inflationary pressure, the Fed may consider resuming interest rate cuts, although he did not specify a timeline for such actions [1] - Goolsbee noted that inflation data has remained stable for three consecutive months, with no significant increases observed, suggesting that the economy is still on a healthy trajectory prior to the tariffs [1] - The Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, continuing to monitor the impact of tariffs on consumer prices and the overall economy [1] Group 2 - There is a cautious approach within the Fed regarding future monetary policy, as officials are still assessing whether the current impacts of tariffs are fully realized or if future inflation data will reflect new responses [2] - Following the recent rate decision, there are differing views among Fed officials regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with some suggesting cuts could begin in July if inflation remains subdued, while others believe the fall may be a more appropriate time [2]

新华财经北京6月19日电（马萌伟）隔夜，美联储连续第四次会议按兵不动，点阵图显示今年降息两 次，但预计今年不降息的官员人数升至7位，明年的降息预期被削减至1次。鲍威尔继续高呼不确定性， 目前的经济情况适合观望。 在美联储会议前，特朗普表示，他希望大幅降息，以便美国财政部能够发行成本更低的长期债务。如果 美联储关于通胀的担忧成真，那么美联储可以再加息。 截至发稿，美联储声明已经发布几个小时，特朗普仍然没有在自家社交媒体平台评论鲍威尔连续四次按 兵不动的做法。 6月25日，鲍威尔将出席美国参议院银行业、住房与城乡事务委员会的听证会。届时，鲍威尔将围绕 FOMC半年度货币政策报告作证。 美联储还需要等什么？ 此次美联储利率决议传递了一个清晰的信息：尽管降息预期依然存在，但未来的宽松步伐将更加谨慎。 特朗普政府的关税政策、地缘政治风险以及国内经济数据的复杂表现，都增添了变数。展望未来，9月 的美联储会议将成为关键节点，市场将密切关注通胀数据和关税政策的最新进展，以判断美联储是否会 如期开启降息周期。 相对变"鹰" 最新的利率预测凸显出参加此次会议的19位美联储官员之间的分歧。10人预计美联储今年至少会降息两 次，这一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent easing of inflation data is partially attributed to the cooling of the housing market [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the relationship between inflation trends and the housing sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee members acknowledge a reduction in uncertainty since May, but emphasize that significant uncertainty remains regarding the economic outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Economic Outlook** - In the June statement, the language was adjusted from indicating an increase in uncertainty to recognizing a decrease, although it still remains high [1] - **Trade Agreements** - The adjustment in the statement may reflect a broader sentiment that the Trump administration is seeking trade agreements [1] - **Inflation Data** - Several months of inflation data indicate relatively low price increases throughout the spring [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors have made precious metal prices strong, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting. The future possibility of interest rate cuts is relatively high due to Trump's pressure on the Fed. The expected change in real interest rates is likely to be downward, which is favorable for gold prices. However, the gold market may be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. Silver prices are strong, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. Although it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US retail sales in May were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The US dollar index weakened after the data release but quickly reversed its decline. Precious metal prices also strengthened, possibly due to complex geopolitical factors. The market generally believes that the Fed will not adjust interest rates at this meeting, but the possibility of future rate cuts is relatively high due to Trump's pressure [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On June 17, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 792.68 yuan/gram and closed at 785.08 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 192,889 lots, and the open interest was 168,935 lots. The night session closed at 787.38 yuan/gram, up 0.04% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened and closed at 8,864 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 457,021 lots, and the open interest was 409,052 lots. The night session closed at 8,988 yuan/kilogram, up 1.71% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.46%, a change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.45%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 55 lots, and the short positions decreased by 28 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 382,113 lots, a decrease of 12.21% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions increased by 816 lots, and the short positions increased by 721 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 752,455 lots, a decrease of 19.76% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 945.94 tons, an increase of 4.01 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,675.36 tons, a decrease of 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 17, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.97 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -561.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 88.57, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 93.60, a change of -1.40% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On June 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 40,822 kilograms, an increase of 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 284,700 kilograms, a decrease of 48.26% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,652 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 32,520 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between 780 yuan/gram and 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Although it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution [8]