Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles is the Chinese government's continued strict stance against virtual currencies, including stablecoins, emphasizing the need to combat illegal financial activities associated with them and protect citizens' financial security [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Implications - The People's Bank of China has reiterated its commitment to prohibiting virtual currencies and will continue to crack down on illegal financial activities related to them [1]. - Stablecoins are classified as a form of virtual currency and are currently unable to meet requirements for customer identity verification and anti-money laundering, posing risks of being used for illegal activities such as money laundering and fraud [1][2]. - The international financial community is increasingly recognizing the systemic risks posed by stablecoins, particularly in the context of the U.S. using them to reinforce the dollar's global dominance [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The market for stablecoins is expanding rapidly, with projections indicating that by the end of 2028, the issuance of dollar stablecoins could reach $2 trillion, creating an additional $1.6 trillion demand for U.S. short-term government bonds [2]. - The significant growth in stablecoin supply may lead to outflows from retail bank deposits, putting pressure on banks and potentially resulting in a $6.6 trillion deposit diversion in the U.S. banking sector [2]. - The largest dollar stablecoins hold substantial amounts of U.S. short-term government bonds, and a potential run on these stablecoins could trigger a sell-off of these assets, leading to broader financial market risks [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Speculation - The instability of stablecoins is increasing, as evidenced by the recent significant de-pegging of USDe, which is not backed by fiat or hard assets but rather by users collateralizing their crypto assets [3]. - Speculative activities in the cryptocurrency market are being fueled by optimism in the U.S. stock market driven by AI advancements, creating a dual risk where concerns over an AI bubble could lead to a sell-off in crypto assets [3]. - The interconnectedness of AI infrastructure financing and cryptocurrency speculation presents substantial financial risks, particularly in a volatile market environment [3].

Market Overview - Chinese market opened positively in December, with the consumer electronics sector performing notably well[3] - European stock markets generally declined due to weak manufacturing activity, leading to profit-taking[3] - US stocks paused their upward momentum, influenced by a cryptocurrency crash and hints of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan[3] Economic Policies - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set a more proactive policy tone for 2026, focusing on consumption expansion and risk mitigation in real estate[6] - The ISM Manufacturing Index indicates that US factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in four months in November[6] Currency and Commodities - The Bank of Japan's hawkish comments have strengthened the yen against major currencies, with increased bets on a December rate hike[4] - International oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with silver and copper prices reaching new highs[4] Fixed Income - US Treasury yields rose by 4-8 basis points, with a notable $16 billion in corporate bonds priced[5] - The Bank of Japan's signals regarding interest rate hikes have pushed Japanese bond yields to their highest levels since 2008, negatively impacting US bonds[29] Stock Performance - In the US, the Dow Jones fell by 0.9% to 47,289.3 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively[9] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.67%, driven by gains in large tech stocks and a rebound in consumer electronics[11] Sector Insights - Macau's gaming revenue in November grew by 14.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in the sector[13] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.65%, with significant gains in consumer electronics and metal stocks[15]

Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 8% and Ethereum falling close to 10% [2] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 272,000 traders were liquidated, resulting in a total liquidation amount of approximately $993 million [5] - Major cryptocurrencies such as SOL and XRP also saw declines of over 10% [3] Market Dynamics - Standard & Poor's downgraded the stability assessment of the largest stablecoin, USDT, to the lowest level, raising concerns about its collateral adequacy if Bitcoin prices fall [7] - The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes have increased downward pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as rising Japanese government bond yields may lead to accelerated unwinding of yen carry trades [7] Silver Market - Silver prices surged, with spot silver reaching a new high of $58.67 per ounce, marking a more than 4% increase [8] - Analysts suggest that the combination of a loose monetary environment and declining global silver inventories is tightening supply, which may further drive prices upward [8] Stock Market Outlook - Concerns over potential valuation bubbles in AI stocks, particularly regarding Nvidia, have led to a divided sentiment in the U.S. stock market [9] - The Chinese stock market is viewed as being in a different phase compared to the U.S., with analysts suggesting that domestic tech stock valuations are relatively reasonable and driven by earnings [10] - The A-share market is showing signs of a potential year-end rally, with specific sectors like AI-related stocks expected to lead the way [10]

中信证券研报称，考虑到AI投资规模持续增大+模糊的投资回报率，关于"AI泡沫"的讨论已成为市场无 法回避的话题，结合算法进步、核心公司经营策略、宏观流动性等层面核心要素的推演，未来12个月， 我们判断，AI产业的走向主要存在三种可能情形，我们将OpenAI陷入经营危机、AI产业投资节奏放缓 视为基准情形（60%概率），对于当下的AI产业而言，这可能是最为合理、可能的情形。而短期AI算法 实现实质性突破、美国经济通胀反弹&泡沫破灭则分属假设情形的两个极端，我们均将其视为小概率事 件，对应概率均为20%。面对短期AI技术进步、宏观预期的高度不确定性，在AI领域，我们仍建议投资 者坚持"边走边看""逆向投资"的基本思路，同时逐步加大应用侧（互联网、应用软件）配置权重。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussions about the "AI bubble" are becoming unavoidable in the market due to the increasing scale of AI investments and ambiguous investment returns. The future of the AI industry over the next 12 months is predicted to have three potential scenarios, with a 60% probability assigned to OpenAI facing operational crises and a slowdown in AI investment rhythm, while significant breakthroughs in AI algorithms and a rebound in U.S. inflation are considered low-probability events at 20% each [1][2]. Scenario Analysis - **Scenario 1 (20% Probability): Substantial Breakthrough in AI Algorithms** - Recent advancements, such as Google's Gemini 3, have not led to a fundamental breakthrough but rather an extension of existing AGI model capabilities. The skepticism regarding the limitations of LLMs is growing, indicating that significant breakthroughs may require new paths outside the current technological framework [3]. - AI application usage among S&P 500 companies has surpassed 60%, but the application scenarios remain limited to areas like coding and customer service, with significant constraints in high-certainty and complex logic fields [3]. - **Scenario 2 (60% Probability): OpenAI Facing Operational Crisis** - OpenAI, as a leader in the GenAI wave, is experiencing a precarious situation as competitors like Google have surpassed its AGI model capabilities. Potential short-term impacts include a risk of losing paid users for ChatGPT, which could undermine the company's commercial foundation [4]. - OpenAI's ability to raise funds in the primary market is expected to decline significantly, leading to risks in fulfilling its massive orders (valued at $2 trillion). If OpenAI's business suffers, there may be a risk of downward revisions in performance expectations for the semiconductor and hardware sectors, while the internet and application software sectors could benefit [4]. - **Scenario 3 (20% Probability): U.S. Inflation Rising and "Bubble" Bursting** - Historical data suggests that significant capital expenditures can lead to resource crowding out in other economic sectors, structural inflation, and tightening financial liquidity, which are often key factors in the bursting of industry bubbles. The recovery in demand for consumer electronics and traditional data centers, along with rising capacity utilization rates in semiconductor and hardware companies, is increasing the structural inflation risks associated with AI CAPEX [5][6]. - The combination of a robust fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, alongside resilient inflation data, indicates that a rebound in U.S. inflation in the second half of 2026 is a risk that cannot be ignored. If inflation data rises, it could lead to liquidity tightening that may burst the AI bubble and push the U.S. economy into a brief recession [6]. Investment Recommendations - Given the high uncertainty surrounding short-term AI technological advancements and macroeconomic expectations, it is advised that investors adopt a "watch and see" approach and consider "contrarian investing" strategies while gradually increasing allocations in application sectors such as the internet and application software [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "AI bubble" has become an unavoidable topic in the market due to the increasing scale of AI investments and ambiguous investment returns [1] Group 1: AI Industry Outlook - The future of the AI industry is projected to have three possible scenarios over the next 12 months, with a 60% probability assigned to the baseline scenario of OpenAI facing operational difficulties and a slowdown in AI investment pace [1] - The other two hypothetical scenarios, which are short-term substantial breakthroughs in AI algorithms and a rebound in U.S. economic inflation leading to bubble bursts, are considered low probability events, each with a 20% likelihood [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Given the high uncertainty surrounding short-term AI technological advancements and macroeconomic expectations, the industry suggests that investors adopt a "wait and see" approach and consider "contrarian investing" as a fundamental strategy [1] - There is a recommendation to gradually increase the allocation weight towards the application side, specifically in internet and application software sectors [1]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、白银价格创下新高。中国白银库存降至 715.8 吨的七年新低。这一行情不仅反 | | | | 映 | 10 月份中国创纪录出口 660 吨白银引发的供需失衡，更印证供应驱动型涨价正 | | | | | 从贵金属向工业金属蔓延，成为大宗商品的普遍趋势。 | | | | | 2、半夏投资创始人李蓓表示，富人面临财富无处安放的资产荒。股市赚钱效应将 | | | | | 引发居民储蓄搬家、国内机构资产配置重构，更会触发全球资金重新配置、海外资 | | | | | 本回流中国市场的浪潮。这一轮行情非常可能会泡沫化，达到相当的高度。 | | | | | 3、马斯克表示，未来 SpaceX、特斯拉和 xAI ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles is the Chinese central bank's ongoing commitment to prohibiting virtual currencies, including stablecoins, due to their potential for illegal financial activities and risks to financial stability [1][2][3] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The central bank has convened a meeting with 13 departments to coordinate efforts against virtual currency trading and speculation, emphasizing the need to protect public financial security [1] - Stablecoins are classified as a form of virtual currency and are currently unable to meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements, posing risks of money laundering and fraud [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market for stablecoins is expanding, with significant interest following their recognition in the U.S. as a legitimate financial instrument, despite concerns about their actual use primarily for purchasing cryptocurrencies [1][2] - The U.S. aims to leverage stablecoins to maintain the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, with projections indicating that the issuance of dollar stablecoins could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, creating additional demand for U.S. short-term government bonds [2] Group 3: Financial Risks - The rapid growth of stablecoins could lead to significant outflows from retail bank deposits, increasing volatility in the banking sector, with estimates suggesting a potential $6.6 trillion in deposit outflows for U.S. traditional banks [2] - The largest dollar stablecoins hold substantial amounts of U.S. short-term government bonds, and a potential run on these stablecoins could trigger a sell-off of these assets, posing systemic risks to financial markets [2][3] Group 4: Speculative Environment - The instability of stablecoins is rising, highlighted by the recent decoupling of USDe, which is not backed by fiat or hard assets, leading to a dangerous leverage cycle in the market [3] - The speculative atmosphere surrounding cryptocurrencies is influenced by optimism in the U.S. stock market driven by AI, which could lead to significant sell-offs in cryptocurrency assets if concerns about an AI bubble arise [3]

此外，泡沫破灭的积极意义，还在于为技术"民主化"和应用大爆发扫清障碍。互联网泡沫后，宽带普 及、开源软件兴起、开发工具成本骤降，创业门槛大幅降低，直接催生了Web 2.0黄金时代，诞生了 Facebook、YouTube等深度融入并重塑生活的应用。AI的发展也势必循此路径前行。当前大模型训练与 推理成本高昂，技术门槛将中小玩家挡在门外。泡沫破裂将倒逼技术提供商优化成本、推出更易用廉价 的API服务，让AI技术从实验室和巨头军备竞赛中"解放"，真正赋能千行百业。 韩和元 1995年至2001年间，全球资本市场曾上演过这样一幕：过度投机，估值远超实际价值。最终泡沫破裂导 致市场暴跌、大量企业倒闭。金融史将其称为"互联网泡沫"。如今，AI（人工智能）领域似乎正上演相 似剧情：估值高企、资本扎堆、概念炒作泛滥，种种迹象似乎印证着AI泡沫的存在。 但我想说的是，纵或AI泡沫客观存在，亦大可不必恐慌。诚如互联网泡沫所揭示的：泡沫破灭后，接 踵而至的必然是一场惨烈的出清，但这场出清并未摧毁互联网本身，而是淘汰了缺乏坚实商业模式的投 机者——亚马逊股价暴跌90%后凭借客户中心与物流护城河浴火重生，而单纯讲故事、烧钱换流量的公 ...

据智通财经，日前，软银集团创始人孙正义表示，若公司拥有无限的资金来支持其在人工智能领域的下 一轮投资，包括对OpenAI的大额押注，那么他本不会卖出英伟达的股份。 值得一提的是，这是孙正义在11月清仓英伟达后的首次置评。孙正义表示，"我一股也不想卖的，只是 更需要资金来投资OpenAI和其他项目，我是哭着卖出英伟达股票的。" 此前，软银集团于11月11日发布业绩报告。报告显示，其持有的3210万股英伟达股票（含资产管理子公 司持股）已于2025年10月以58.3亿美元（约合人民币415亿元）价格售出。 英国央行和国际货币基金组织（IMF）相继警告，AI概念股的市值飙升至"与互联网泡沫高峰时期相似 的水平"。目前，美国市值最高的五大公司合计占据标普500指数总市值的30%，为半个世纪最高集中 度。以调整后盈利指标计算，这些股票的估值已是自2000年以来最极端的水平。 此外美国银行此前发布的10月全球基金经理调查显示，随着人工智能概念股今年持续的强劲上涨，全球 基金经理对AI泡沫的担忧正上升至空前水平，54%的受访者认为人工智能概念股已进入泡沫区域。 尽管有多家机构减持，并对AI泡沫表示担忧，但仍有不少机构秉持着 ...