证券研究报告 | 2025年06月18日 投资建议： 建材方面，国际贸易冲突加剧背景下，扩内需稳增长政策有望加码，建材整 体仍以内需为主导，板块基本面进一步恶化空间有限，同时有望受益后续政 策倾斜，目前板块估值和持仓均处于底部，逢低择优布局经营韧性更强的消 费建材龙头，尤其零售端受益二手房景气及存量改造需求率先迎来改善，推 荐三棵树、北新建材、兔宝宝、伟星新材、东方雨虹，关注科顺股份；同时 受益复价落地带来盈利中枢上移，业绩同比修复确定性更强的水泥玻纤板 块，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥、中国巨石、中材科技，关注塔牌集团等，以 及玻璃龙头底部配置机会旗滨集团。 建筑建材双周报（2025 年第 11 期） 优于大市 地产基建景气回落，增量政策预期增强 地产基建景气回落，增量政策预期增强。2025 年 1-5 月，固定资产投资同比 +3.7%，增速环比收窄 0.3 个百分点，狭义基建投资同比+5.6%，增速环比收 窄 0.2 个百分点，房地产开发投资同比-10.7%；新开工面积同比-22.8%；竣 工面积同比-17.3%，新建商品房销售面积同比-2.9%。固投和基建增速环比 收窄，房地产数据仍然疲软，二手房挂牌量创新高 ...

6月17日，中信建投证券2025年中期资本市场投资峰会在上海举办，主题为"开新局·赢未来"。 中信建投证券研究团队认为，中国经济稳步回升与产业创新突破正重塑全球对中国资产的认知。 展望 后市，A股市场中枢有望随流动性逐渐上移，消费、科技、产业、红利或是四大配置主线。 图片来源：中信建投证券 中国资产吸引力持续提升 "中国经济2025年起步平稳，经济回升向好的态势持续巩固，中国资产吸引力正在不断提升。"中信建投 证券总经理金剑华在致辞中表示，我国科技不断创新和产业持续升级，正在重塑国内外对中国经济前景 和资产定价认知。科技创新引领、消费提振和内需扩张持续升级、财政政策不断发力等，经济和市场的 信心稳步走强。 在金剑华看来，随着全球范围内新一轮科技浪潮和产业变革深入发展，驱动中国经济发展的核心动力正 在从要素投入规模扩张转向创新引领的效率提升，发展新质生产力已经成为推动高质量发展的关键着力 点。创新需要更具灵活性和包容性的融资环境，资本市场独特的风险回报机制，能够有效促进创新资本 形成，激发企业家精神和创新创造活力，这对于助力产业转型升级，促进科技、产业和金融高水平循环 尤为重要。在全球金融市场动荡背景下，中国资 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has maintained a volatile trend this year, with private equity institutions seizing opportunities, resulting in impressive performance [1] - As of May 31, 682 index-enhanced products with performance displays achieved an average return of 10.59% and an average excess return of 11.92%, with 94.57% of products showing positive excess returns [1] - Among these, 403 products had excess returns of at least 10%, with 312 products in the range of 10%-19.99%, 76 products between 20%-29.99%, and 15 products exceeding 30% [1] Group 2 - The CSI 1000 index-enhanced products had an average excess return of 10.95%, with 97.66% of products achieving positive excess returns, while the index itself had a positive average return of 12.24% [1] - The CSI 500 index-enhanced products had an average excess return of 10.25%, with 96.95% of products showing positive excess returns, but the index's negative performance resulted in an average return of 9.20% [1] Group 3 - The CSI 300 index-enhanced products performed the worst, with an average excess return of 5.02% and an average return of only 2.49% due to significant drag from the index [2] - Other index-enhanced products performed exceptionally well, with 60 products achieving an average return of 13.64% and an average excess return of 16.42%, all showing positive excess returns [2] - Air index-enhanced products had an average return of 11.35% and an average excess return of 13.66%, with 90.31% of products achieving positive excess returns [2] Group 4 - Starstone Investment suggests focusing on whether companies exhibit positive changes and if these changes are fully priced in by the market, rather than following stocks with high cumulative gains [3] - Zhengyuan Investment emphasizes adjusting holdings to avoid external disturbances and seek incremental growth, reducing exposure to export-oriented companies affected by tariff disputes while increasing positions in sectors related to the Belt and Road Initiative, domestic consumption upgrades, and military demand [3]

连续调整多日的食品饮料板块近期逐步企稳，今日早盘逆势走强，燕京啤酒涨超6%，金种子酒、珠江 啤酒涨超4%。受盘面影响，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）早盘一度涨超1%。 值得注意的是，近期食品饮料板块持续调整，中证食品饮料指数近一个月累计下跌超5%，近三个月累 计下跌超9%，在各大板块中跌幅居前。成分股中，贵州茅台更是从5月份高点1645元一度跌至1401.18 元，期间累计跌幅约15%。 消息面上，白酒板块处于承压阶段，飞天茅台价格持续走低，月初散瓶飞天平台报价跌破2000元。但在 券商看来，白酒商品属性正在加速重塑，能够提前适应快消品运作逻辑的企业竞争优势会愈发凸显。 有机构人士指出，目前食品饮料目前各细分板块基本面触底，乳制品、啤酒、饮料、门店类型企业有企 稳信号，Q1业绩分别在利润、销量等方面超预期；休闲食品板块具有开店和大单品逻辑的公司业绩表 现超预期；白酒板块仍然处于库存去化阶段，预计25H2有边际改善的可能。食品饮料作为内需板块， 受关税影响小，市场关注度显著提升带来资金面改善，有望拔升估值。若后期茅台散装报价企稳，白酒 行业基本面有望触底，带动食品饮料板块反弹。 场外投资者可以持续关注天弘中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of consumer demand and the significant potential for financial services in China are highlighted, with foreign institutions expected to thrive in sectors like consumer finance and inclusive finance [1] Group 1: Consumer Demand and Market Potential - Consumer demand has become the main driver of China's economic growth, with the market size being the second largest globally [1] - China leads the world in service consumption volumes for automobiles, mobile phones, and home appliances, indicating a robust growth phase in service consumption [1] - There remains a significant growth potential in service consumption, with a gap of over ten percentage points compared to developed countries [1] Group 2: Policy and Economic Environment - The steady advancement of new urbanization and the emergence of new consumption formats are contributing to the release of incremental consumption potential [1] - Policies such as visa-free transit and tax refunds are continuously optimized to enhance consumer spending [1] - The implementation of strategies to expand domestic demand and investments in human capital is leading to steady increases in residents' income and improved livelihood security [1] Group 3: Role of Foreign Institutions - Many foreign institutions possess rich experience and unique expertise in consumer finance and inclusive finance [1] - The deepening of foreign institutions in the Chinese market is expected to yield significant opportunities [1]

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development post-pandemic is to expand domestic consumption, especially in light of rising protectionism from the U.S. under Trump, which necessitates a focus on increasing domestic demand [1] - Distinguishing between consumer desire and consumer ability is essential for formulating targeted policies to expand domestic demand, requiring an understanding of the saturation point of consumer desire [1][2] - Consumer desire is characterized by its "non-satiation" nature, meaning consumers always prefer more to less, while consumer ability is influenced by income, wealth, and access to credit [2][7] Group 2 - Different categories of consumer goods, such as food, durable goods, and services, exhibit varying saturation points, with food consumption stability indicated by the Engel coefficient remaining between 28% and 30% from 2015 to 2024 [3] - The average annual per capita grain consumption in urban areas has stabilized between 109 kg and 125 kg from 2013 to 2024, with a decline starting in 2021 [3] - Durable goods like washing machines and computers reached saturation points in 2012, while the ownership of refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline followed by growth due to factors like real estate development [4] Group 3 - The saturation of certain consumer goods indicates a need for high-quality development and product upgrades, while sectors like air conditioning and automotive still have significant growth potential [5] - The overall consumption saturation point in China is expected to decline due to accelerating population aging and decreasing natural growth rates [5] - Consumer ability in China shows significant disparities, with low-income households relying on credit or wealth smoothing for consumption beyond basic needs [7] Group 4 - To activate consumer desire, it is crucial to recognize the non-satiation of consumer quantity and the diminishing marginal utility, while also providing high-quality and innovative products [8] - A differentiated sales strategy is recommended to cater to varying consumer abilities, with high-quality products targeting high-income groups and cost-effective options for low-income consumers [8]

我们就应该树立这样的理念：解决群众"急难愁盼"问题的财政 投 入 不 仅 是 一 种 " 成 本 " ， 更 是 一 种 面 向 高 质 量 发 展 的 " 投 资"。正如2025年《政府工作报告》中所强调的，是"投资于 人"。 作者：宋笛 封图：图虫创意 中办、国办印发的《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》（下称《意 见》）于6月9日对外公布，《意见》提出要增强社会保障公平性、提高基本公共服务均衡性、扩 大基础民生服务普惠性、提升多样化社会服务可及性等。《意见》中诸多条款切中大众的"急难愁 盼"，因此也获得广泛的关注。比如，《意见》提及"对符合条件的高校毕业生、就业困难人员等予 以社会保险补贴""完善最低工资标准调整机制，合理提高最低工资标准""推行由常住地提供基本公 共服务""用5年左右时间，逐步实现义务教育学校标准化建设全覆盖"等。 《意见》的出台具有深远的意义。一方面民生是人们的幸福之基，《意见》的出台和有效落地无疑 能够进一步提升人们的获得感和幸福感。另一方面，立足中国经济的现实情况，及时有效解决群众 的"急难愁盼"问题，也将为中国经济筑牢增长之基。 中国经济面临的挑战之一是内需 ...

Group 1: Economic Demand and Investment - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [26] - Fixed asset investment showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in May, recovering from a previous decline of 0.8% [53] - Infrastructure investment rebounded with a month-on-month growth of 0.9%, while manufacturing investment accelerated with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [60] Group 2: Industrial Production and Employment - The industrial added value in May increased by 0.4% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of 0.2% [66] - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [81] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities also fell to 5.0%, indicating a marginal improvement in employment conditions [83] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The temporary suspension of certain tariffs by the Trump administration is expected to alleviate external demand pressure, allowing for a better internal demand recovery [88] - The GDP growth forecast for the year is maintained at 5.0%, despite anticipated pressure on exports in the second half of the year [88] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected geopolitical events that could impact export performance [89]

Group 1: Consumption Growth and Policies - In May 2025, retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.85%[1] - The government has prioritized "restoring and expanding consumption" as a key task for 2025, with over 20 specific measures introduced to stimulate consumption[1] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy for consumer goods has been expanded, with the subsidy amount increasing from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025[2] Group 2: Impact of Subsidy Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales of five major categories of consumer goods to reach 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers by the end of May 2025[2] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year increase of over 30%, indicating strong demand driven by the subsidy policies[5] - The tourism sector experienced a record high during the Dragon Boat Festival, with 119 million domestic trips and total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year[10] Group 3: Long-term Consumer Confidence Challenges - Despite short-term stimulus effects, consumer willingness remains low, with only 24.9% of residents inclined to spend more, while 61.4% prefer to save[15] - Structural issues such as housing, education, and healthcare costs continue to suppress consumer spending, necessitating deeper policy interventions[15] - To enhance long-term consumption capacity, policies must focus on stabilizing income expectations and reducing rigid expenditure pressures[19] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The government aims to improve income distribution and social security systems to stabilize residents' income expectations and strengthen consumption capacity[23] - Enhancements to vacation policies are essential for activating long-term service consumption potential, with new regulations increasing holiday days starting January 1, 2025[20] - Coordinated policy measures are necessary to create a sustainable consumption environment, moving beyond short-term incentives to long-term structural improvements[23]