Group 1 - The profitability of shorting alumina futures is determined solely by the "price difference" [1] - The profit and loss formula for shorting is: Profit/Loss (CNY/ton) = Opening Price - Closing Price - Fees [1] - A short position incurs losses only when the closing price exceeds the opening price [1] Group 2 - Factors that can drive alumina prices up, leading to potential losses for short sellers, include: sudden reluctance to sell in the spot market, environmental production limits in the north, and fluctuations in bauxite supply [2] - Other contributing factors include concentrated purchasing by electrolytic aluminum plants and inventory levels dropping below safety thresholds [2] - Insufficient registered warehouse receipts in the delivery month can lead to short squeezes by bulls [2] - Macroeconomic factors such as a weakening dollar and a general rise in commodity prices can create emotional premiums [2] - Setting stop-loss orders can limit and control potential losses, ensuring that there is no absolute scenario where "prices can only rise and not fall" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Possibly bullish [2] - Zinc: Possibly fluctuating weakly in a wide range [2] Core View of the Report - Copper prices closed 0.7% lower overnight. Concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. Grid investment has continued positive growth, power supply investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. The Indonesian mine accident will probably lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices closed 1.25% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased on a weekly basis. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in a range [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Overnight copper price dropped 0.7%. Since the beginning of the year, concentrate supply has been tight, but smelting output has grown rapidly. Grid investment grows positively, power supply investment slows, auto production and sales grow, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long run. The strategy direction is possibly bullish [2]. Zinc - Overnight zinc price dropped 1.25%. Zinc concentrate processing fees rise, smelting profits turn positive, and output is expected to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory rises weekly. Infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak. Short - term supply - demand may turn to oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly. The strategy direction is possibly fluctuating weakly in a wide range [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 82,470 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 10,205 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 33.91 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 144,425 tons, and daily change is - 350 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,755 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,649 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 3.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 515,925 tons, and daily change is - 1,225 tons [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 21,950 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 95 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,887 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 39.18 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 43,800 tons, and daily change is - 600 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 121,100 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 1,180 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,155 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 178.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 230,586 tons, and daily change is 0 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,070 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 130 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 39.07 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 219,550 tons, and daily change is - 175 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 273,600 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 840 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 34,415 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 48.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,740 tons, and daily change is 45 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene market include the possible repeated submission of "anti - involution", the vulnerability of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, and the insufficient demand of major downstream PP, which leads to a contraction in the price difference between PP and propylene and a lack of ability to accept high - priced propylene. The PL01 contract is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. The propylene trend is highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread oscillates between 490 - 540 yuan/ton. Recently, as PP maintenance increases, its valuation is repaired, and propylene follows the upward trend [1]. - In the short - term, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled. The basis has shrunk from a high of 190 to - 15 yuan/ton. Considering the characteristics of the 01 contract, the month - spread strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices, and the hedging and arbitrage strategy is to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices [15][17]. - In the long - term, there are expectations of new capacity coming on stream on the supply side, and the growth rate of PP terminal demand is lower than that of supply, leading to inventory accumulation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the supply - demand gap in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream PP has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk, and most downstream industries have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is in an oscillatory state, and the price range of PL01 is 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, those who went long at around 6300 can still hold their positions [15]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is in an oscillatory state. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled, and currently, the spot is stable in the short - term, and the futures price rebounds slightly [15]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, the direction is still to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices [16][17]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. When the PP - PL spread is around 500, add positions [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of propylene is 6250 - 6600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 0.0513 and a historical percentage of 0.102 (3 - year) [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, short - sell propylene futures at high prices and sell call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy propylene futures at low prices and sell put options to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On the crude oil side, sanctions and disputes around Russia drive the market up. On the industrial side, as PP maintenance increases this week, its valuation is repaired, driving propylene up. Additionally, as PDH profits are compressed, planned maintenance increases [20]. - **Negative Information**: This week's data on the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits and the second - quarter GDP are better than expected, increasing the probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in October [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On September 30th, China's official manufacturing PMI will be released [23]. - On October 1st, the US September ISM manufacturing data is expected to be 49.2, higher than the previous value of 48.7 [23]. - On October 3rd, economic data such as the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls will be released [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the PL01 contract first declined and then rebounded. The trading volume did not change much. The net long positions of the main profitable seats decreased, the positions in the top - ten long and short lists did not change significantly, the net short positions of profitable seats decreased slightly, foreign investors' net short positions increased slightly, and retail investors' net long positions increased slightly [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily line, propylene is in a rebound during an oscillatory decline, and the short - term upper pressure is still near the middle track. From the hourly line, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a possible transition to oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [24]. - **Basis and Month - Spread Structure**: This week, the basis of propylene 01 closed at - 15 yuan/ton, compared with - 67 yuan/ton last week. The 01 - 02 month - spread of propylene closed at - 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, showing an overall reverse arbitrage trend but with oscillations [27]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton (- 98.7), and that of Shandong local refineries was 204.72 yuan/ton (- 73.48). Although the profits of major refineries increased, the cracking capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, mainly affected by the new cracking capacity of Yulong [30]. 3.4.2 Mid - stream Profits - The cracking profit of Asian naphtha was - 56 US dollars/ton (- 27), and that of Asian propane was - 14 US dollars/ton (- 12). Propane cracking profit was better than naphtha cracking profit, but as the propane price strengthened, propane cracking profit weakened [32]. - The PDH profit based on FEI cost was - 215 yuan/ton (- 65), and that based on CP cost was - 170 yuan/ton (- 175). Currently, both the propylene monomer and PP sectors are in a loss - making state [32]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profits - The price difference between PP raffia and propylene was 225 yuan/ton (+ 160), and that between PP powder and propylene was 255 yuan/ton (+ 130). The pressure caused by the price difference still exists [34]. - The profit of propylene oxide (PO) by different methods showed different trends. The profit of acrylonitrile was - 1191 yuan/ton (+ 6), with little change. The profit of acrylic acid was + 391 yuan/ton (+ 214), with a significant improvement. The profit of butanol was + 147 yuan/ton (+ 84), with little change. The profit of octanol was 264 yuan/ton (- 84), with a relatively large decline recently but still in a relatively good profit state among downstream products. The profit of phenol - acetone was - 371 yuan/ton (- 87), with little change [36]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has shown little recent fluctuation. With fewer planned maintenance activities in South Korea in September and October, imports are expected to remain at a high level [41]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased. In October, Binhuahua and Lihuayi have maintenance plans, and the supply - demand gap will oscillate [43]. 3.5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection - This week, due to the resumption of production by some enterprises, the overall operating rate of propylene increased to 75.52% (+ 1.67%), still at a high level. In October, Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical still have plans for production start - up and capacity increase, while on the PDH side, Bohua, Binhuahua, Haiwei, Lihuayi, etc. have maintenance plans [46]. - This week's supply increase mainly comes from the increased load of Wanhua Penglai. The production volume in the Shandong region is expected to oscillate in the next few weeks. Although Zhenhua is restarting, Jinneng's maintenance is postponed, and the maintenance plans of Binhuahua and Lihuayi are expected to offset some of the incremental supply [48]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The price difference between PP powder and propylene is still relatively low, and many devices are shut down. This week, Shandong Kairi resumed production at a low - load operation [54]. - In the Shandong region, demand increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production of PP devices. There were different production - related changes in various downstream industries such as PP granules, PP powder, propylene oxide, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, butanol - octanol, and phenol - acetone [73].

Group 1 - The article highlights that during the past 10 years, the commodity market has often shown significant movements during the National Day holiday, with probabilities of price increases for various commodities post-holiday: 70% for crude oil, 50% for gold, 60% for silver, and 70% for stock index futures [1] - It notes that in 2025, just before the National Day, a new round of interest rate cuts in the US will have started, leading to improved global liquidity and heightened market sentiment, which may amplify the volatility of core commodities [1] - The article emphasizes the appeal of the futures market due to its T+0 trading, margin system, and the ability to participate in both upward and downward movements, making it a suitable choice for capturing opportunities or hedging risks during the National Day holiday [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a futures simulation competition organized by Daily Economic News and COFCO Futures, encouraging participants to practice trading strategies in a risk-free environment with a simulated capital of 1 million [3] - It mentions that the competition features a dual evaluation mechanism with weekly and monthly contests, offering multiple rewards for participants [3] - The article provides instructions for registration and highlights the benefits of participating, including exclusive market insights for post-holiday trends [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The price is expected to explore the planting cost range, and there are opportunities for low - long positions. Maintain an interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term [4][5][6]. - Pig: The downward space of pig prices is limited, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, while far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [10][11][12]. - Egg: The spot price has fallen as expected, and the short - selling idea remains unchanged. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling strategy [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the north - south port prices were stable in the north and strong in the south, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline in the northeast and rose in the north [4]. - As of the 26th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the wheat - corn price difference was positive and continued to expand [4]. - On the 26th, the corn auction sales and procurement transactions of CGC were held. The planned sales volume was 371 tons and all were sold, while the planned procurement volume was 11,800 tons with a transaction rate of 30% [5]. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a significant increase in corn inventory [5]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The opening price of new grain in the northeast has dropped from a high level. The lower support of the futures price is the port price range of the new season's corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around the new season's corn drive, and maintain a wide - range trading idea [5]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost, and focus on policy orientation [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - Maintain the interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term. Pay attention to the low - long opportunities of the band. The support levels of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 2100 - 2130 and 2100 - 2120 respectively, and long positions can be held [6]. Pig - **Important Information** - On the 27th, the national average price of live pigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 28th [10]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled in large - scale pig farms increased month - on - month [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs narrowed, the average weekly slaughter weight decreased, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [14]. - The central reserve frozen pork will be rotated out on the 28th [14]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The temporary supply - demand imbalance suppresses the pig price [11]. - Medium - term: The expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the rise of pig prices [11]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range and be gradually closed. Far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [12]. - The support levels of the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12300 - 12500, 12800 - 13000, 12500, 12900 - 13000, and 13500 - 13600 respectively [12]. Egg - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the egg prices were weakly stable, and the downstream sales slowed down with an increase in inventory [17]. - The price of culled hens decreased, and the weekly culling age increased [17]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the theoretical estimated value in September decreased month - on - month [17]. - **Market Logic** - Medium - and short - term: As the festival approaches, the stocking intensity weakens, the downstream sales slow down, and the inventory rises, putting pressure on egg prices [17]. - Long - term: Focus on the scale of hen culling. The supply pressure may be realized again in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling idea, and hold previous short positions. The pressure levels of the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3090 - 3100, 3200, 3370 - 3380, and 3120 - 3140 respectively. Breeding enterprises can also pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities of the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in breeding profits [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market showed a pattern of opening high and closing low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day holiday are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. Overall, the market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened high and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. Upstream factory pre - orders for the National Day are not full, futures rebound is weak, and prices are under pressure. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. The market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,676 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations, and finally closed at 1,669 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%. The trading volume was 292,033 lots, a decrease of 9,861 lots compared to the previous day. On September 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,241, a decrease of 294 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,560 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with Hebei factories having higher quotes. High - quote factories are mainly fulfilling some export orders for port collection [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 59 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [7] Supply Data - On September 26, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 204,300 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.32% [8]

据调研数据统计，国内红枣样本点库存继续缓慢下降，9月25日当周，36家样本点物理库存在9203吨，较上周 减少44吨，环比减少0.48%，同比增加84.80%，仍处于同期高位。 中辉期货表示，基于当下产量预期结合结转库存，后期新果上市后仍旧存在压力预期。短期，由于天气窗口 期的收缩，市场对质量问题的担忧逐步缓解，但11月下树前不排除炒作下的大涨大跌行情。策略上，波动较 大情况下盘面谨慎交易，建议关注行情炒作下的逢高沽空机会。 9月26日，国内期市主力合约涨跌互现。其中，红枣主力合约日内涨超2%，现报11240.00元/吨，创9月12日以 来新高。 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 有人乐意"闲" ，有人享受"充电" 宝城期货 陈栋 秋意渐浓，梧桐叶落，又是一年国庆假期到来。城市渐渐安静下来，写字楼的灯一盏盏熄灭，人们收 拾行囊，奔赴山海。而期货交易者，这群在数字洪流中搏击的旅人，却在节日前夕，多了一份静默的守候。 交易所的假期安排早已贴出：10 月 1 日（星期三）至 10 月 8 日（星期三）休市，10 月 9 日（星期四） 起照常开市。9 月 30 日（星期二）晚上不进行夜盘交易。10 月 9 日（星期四）所有合约集合竞价时间为 上午 8:55 至 9:00。可以想见，9 月 30 日下午，随着分时线的止步，屏幕归于平静。有人长舒一口气，摘 下耳机，望着 K 线图嘴角微扬；有人默默关闭交易软件，泡上一杯浓茶，任茶烟袅袅，思绪却仍停留在那 根均线上。 假期，对期货交易者而言，从不是简单的"休息"二字可以概括的。它更像是一次周期性的撤离与回归， 一次在喧嚣与寂静之间的转换。节前的最后几个交易日，市场波动往往加大。交易所的保证金可能上调， 风险提示函也可能发布，仿佛在提醒大家：操作要更谨慎。 于是，有些期货交易者选择在假期前平仓。这不仅是为了规避长假期间国际市场的不确 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.