Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions will be a critical variable for market dynamics, as strong demand could lower yields and support the dollar, while weak demand may raise concerns about U.S. debt and weaken the dollar [1] Auction Details - The U.S. is scheduled to auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday, and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday [1] - Strong demand in these auctions could alleviate market anxiety, potentially leading to a decline in Treasury yields and an increase in the dollar's value [1] Market Implications - If demand is weak, particularly from foreign institutions, it could reignite concerns regarding U.S. debt issues, resulting in rising yields and a weakening dollar [1]

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 绍翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 当作为曾经全球三大资产泡沫之一的日债，都出现了"销售"问题，这本身就是对全球债市变局的一种警示。 本周，20年期日债和美债 的"灾难性"拍卖，叠加美国众议院比较顺利地通过减税与支出法案，导致全球债市的动荡，日本和美国债市首当其冲。尽管有偶发因素， 但背后凸显的矛盾却越发明显，全球变局下债券逃不开的供需错配问题，而所有这些问题的交汇焦点就在美债（以及背后的美元）：无论 是4月中下旬贸易摩擦下的外资抛售"恐慌"，还是5月初新台币的暴涨背后对于亚洲资金减配美元资产的担忧。 我们在之前的报告里反复强调 美债问题会是特朗普2.0最大的"背刺"， 当前这个观点没变，在本篇报告中，我们会进一步结合特朗普的减 税和关税主线，给出美债等资产风险的分析框架。 首先说说对于全球变局的看法，对于广义的债务来说，有供给和需求两个角度： 贸易和地缘格局的重构本来应该意味着美国财政的相对紧缩、其他经济体财政更加积极，进而达成全球债务 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周整体缺乏宏观数据的显著指引，市场情绪表现也较为谨慎。不过周中特朗普一度重新强调对欧盟的关税税率应该有 5 0 %，此番 言论使得市场陷入短期的r is k o ff情绪之中，黄金显著反弹，铜价回落的幅度并不深。随后市场可能更加担忧对于铜增加2 5 %的关税 税率，导致COMEX铜价显著上涨，地区之间的价差再次扩大。 1、上周金铜显 著走强 上周海外市场不确定性较前期再次增强，主要因美债信用危机引发市场担忧，同时特朗普再度提及关税问题，威胁对欧盟商 品直接征收 5 0% 关税引发欧盟强烈反对，市场避险情绪由此回升，贵金属价格随之反弹。中长期来说黄金的上行趋势并未 改变，海外不确定性持续叠加美元的信用逻辑依然支撑金价走强，关注海外潜在流动性风险。 基本金属市场复盘 （一）COMEX/沪铜市场观察 上周 COMEX铜价震荡偏强，上周铜价整体仍然缺乏显著驱动，周内大部分时间横盘震荡为主，缺乏宏观数据的显著指引， 市场情绪表现也较为谨慎。周中特朗普一度重新强调对欧盟的关税税率应该有50%，此番言论使得市场陷入短期的risk off情 绪之中 ...

Core Points - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "Aa1" on May 16, 2025, due to rising deficits and interest costs over the past decades [1][5] - The downgrade signifies the loss of the last perfect credit rating for the U.S., marking a significant shift in its financial standing [2][3] - This downgrade is the first time in over a century that the U.S. has lost its perfect credit rating, potentially indicating the beginning of a decline for the country [3][5] Financial Metrics - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with interest payments rising from 9% of federal revenue in 2021 to 18% in 2024 [6] - Interest payments on U.S. debt have doubled in just three years, a rare occurrence, and projections suggest that by 2035, debt could rise to 134% of GDP, consuming 30% of federal revenue [7] - The fiscal deficit for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year has already exceeded $1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history [9] Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock index futures fell over 0.4%, and the dollar index dropped by 15 points, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. assets [13] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 5 basis points to 4.49%, suggesting rising future financing costs for the U.S. [13] - The downgrade may weaken the status of U.S. Treasuries as a global safe-haven asset, leading investors to demand higher risk premiums [13][15] Political Context - The U.S. Congress has been unable to reach a substantial agreement on deficit reduction, with proposed tax cuts facing bipartisan opposition [13] - Former President Trump's attempts to address the trade deficit and increase tariffs to boost revenue have shown limited success, highlighting the challenges in managing the debt crisis [10][13] Long-term Implications - The downgrade by Moody's could signal a more dangerous economic situation than the 2008 financial crisis, as it stems from national debt rather than mortgage debt [15] - The ongoing rise in debt and interest payments poses significant challenges for the U.S., raising questions about the sustainability of its financial model [15]

以下文章来源于范范爱养基 ，作者范范 范范爱养基 . 专注基金投资分享，说人话，不拽词！不保证说的都对，但都是当下我最最真实的想法。（雪球号同名） 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：范范爱养基 近期 美国十年期国债收益率 持续上涨 ， 前两天一度涨到 4.6% ！ 美债收益率上涨 ， 对应美债价格下跌 。于是 ， " 美债崩盘 " " 股债汇三杀 " 的新闻刷屏 ！ 搞得美债基金持有人们 ， 人心惶惶。对于突然铺天盖地的 " 崩盘 、 药丸 " 这种宏观叙事 ， 我们都应该警惕 是不是炒作 。尤其是各大媒体甚至专业机构 ， 跌了就看空 ， 涨了就看多。 我先给大家展示3个数据 ， 给大家提供一个不一样的视角 。 来源：雪球 【 数据1 】 根据美国财政部公布的数据 ： 截至2025年3月 ， 外国持有的美国国债总额达到历史新高 。 也就是说 ， " 美债崩盘 " 的叙事是4月对等关税后才开始的 。 也就是因为川普这个人引起的 。 因此 ， 我更倾向将近期美债收益率的飙升理解为 " 短期波动 " ， 而不是因为真要发生 " 药丸 、 崩盘 " 这种 大型 ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-26 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关税预期缓解，黄金或迎底部做多 时机》 - 2025.05.06 有色金属行业报告 （2025.05.19-2025.05.24） 黄金上行开始，持续关注黄金股投资机会 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4695.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 ...

Market Overview - Following the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, 2025, global stock market volatility increased significantly, with a rapid decline followed by a quick recovery approximately one week later[7] - As of May 22, 2025, most major markets have returned to and exceeded their levels from April 2, 2025, likely due to short-term economic support from global export surges during the 90-day exemption period[8] Economic Concerns - The increase in global tariff levels and the intensification of de-globalization are expected to hinder global demand in the medium term, despite the recent market performance suggesting otherwise[8] - The uncertainty surrounding President Trump's administration and unresolved risks related to U.S. debt have resurfaced as market focal points, potentially ending the low volatility phase observed since May[8] U.S. Tariff Policy - On May 23, 2025, President Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, 2025, raising concerns about a potential escalation in the U.S. tariff war, which led to a collective decline in European and American stock markets[10] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating on May 16, 2025, marking the first downgrade in over a decade, which may amplify market negative sentiment in the short term[10] Debt Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities rose, indicating investor concerns about government debt and interest burdens, although market risk appetite remained relatively stable[11] - The downgrade has resulted in a loss of the highest Aaa rating from all three major international credit rating agencies for the U.S., reflecting deteriorating fiscal conditions compared to similarly rated countries[12] Investment Recommendations - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 18.96, a decrease of 0.47% from the previous week, indicating a potential shift in valuation trends[6] - The report suggests that Chinese assets may become a safe haven amid increasing global market volatility, positioning them favorably for investors seeking stability[1]

据智通财经消息，近日，美国财政部公布的数据显示，2025年3月，美债前三大海外债主中，日本、英国增持美国国债，中国 减持。中国由美国第二大债主变为第三大债主，英国变为第二大债主。3月正值本轮美债市场动荡前夕。美国财政部2025年3 月国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，日本3月增持49亿美元美国国债，持仓规模为11308亿美元，依然是美国第一大债主。中国 3月减持189亿美元美国国债至7654亿美元，为今年首次减持。 如果按这个速度维持下去，预计在今年之内，中国持有的美债将跌破7000亿美元。而在美方公布这个数据之际，刚从中东返 美的特朗普也表态了，声称自己愿意前往中国，并强调"这对中美关系很重要"。事实上，在还没有上任的时候，特朗普就表 示他准备在100天内访华，但最终这个计划未能实现。而且，在特朗普原定的关税计划中，他准备先"捏软柿子"，中国则是放 在最后的"硬骨头"。但中方率先站出来，对美国的"对等关税"实施反制，打乱了特朗普的计划。 美国（资料图） 在美国国内经济增长乏力，债务危机又迫在眉睫的情况下，中国减持美债，将使美国经济面临更大压力。这种局面，显然是 美方不愿看到的。就在当地时间5月16日，特朗普在 ...

请务必阅读文后重要声明 第1页，共2页 投资咨询系列报告 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年05月26日08时03分 | 原油 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 | 单位 5月23日 | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | 百分比 | | Sc 原油期货 | 元/桶 452.80 | -0.90 | -0.20% | -3.40 | -0.75% | | WTI | 美元/桶 61.76 | 0.95 | 1.56% | -0.73 | -1.17% | | Brent | 美元/桶 65.03 | 1.00 | 1.56% | -0.30 | -0.46% | | Sc-WTI 内外价差 | 美元/桶 1.20 | -1.09 | -47.59% | 0.27 | 29.60% | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 -2.07 | -1.14 | 122.35% | -0.16 | 8.15% | | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 3.27 | 4.2 ...

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]