Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after breaking through key points, the stock market still has room for growth, with a focus on growth sectors rather than indices [1][2] - The reduction in the risk-free interest rate and the shift in expectations for the RMB from depreciation to stability or slight appreciation are significant drivers for the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][2] - The article highlights the importance of macro policies that prioritize investor returns and capital market reforms, which are crucial for changing investors' conservative attitudes towards risks [1][2] Group 2 - Economic policies and innovation support are expected to improve risk appetite and drive growth performance, with new business opportunities emerging in China [2] - The article notes that the financial sector's recent strong performance is influenced by multiple factors, including the ongoing development of stablecoin concepts and favorable domestic policies [6] - Historical analysis shows that financial stock rallies are often driven by liquidity, fundamentals, or policy events, with the sustainability of these drivers determining future market trends [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 基本面宏观面共振 铜向上突破 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 宏观和地缘局势缓和，市场风险偏好回升。下半年，我们预计金属市场步入全 球宽松和金属价格受益进入上行通道。当前风险因素依然较多。美国和中国之 外关税 90 天豁免临近结束，仍需关注。铜基本面很强，一方面消费韧性，另 外美国 232 带来的大量铜蜂拥至美国，导致非美地区供应吃紧。预计近期随着 LME 逼仓，国内库存重回下降，基本面走强，但是需要警惕 232 消息的扰动。 黄金价格近期调整，但是长期看涨逻辑未变，我们继续看多。此外，关注自主 可控相关以及时间友好的科技、机器人、可控核聚变等相关材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4242.0 | 4.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3944.2 | 4.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7.7 13.0 32.6 相对表现 5.5 14.5 19.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 - ...

2025 年 06 月 29 日 电子 龙芯 3C6000 国产处理器发布，美光 Q3 业绩&指引超预期 龙芯 3C6000 处理器发布，自主可控再进阶 6 月 26 日，龙芯中科举行新品发布会，正式推出 3C6000/S/D/Q 系列 及 2K3000/3B6000M 的芯片和解决方案。经中国电子技术标准化研究 院测试，四路 3C6000/D 的 SPEC CPU 2017 多核定点分值达 547 分， 较上代提升 60%-110%，UnixBench 多线程性能翻倍，多核性能与国际 主流产品的代差已缩短至 4 年以内。该系列产品实现三大技术突破： 1）完成 5000 余条龙架构指令重构，规避 x86/ARM 专利壁垒；2）配 套 7A2000 独显桥片及国密算法加速模块，核心元器件国产化率达 100%；3）实现设计、制造、封装全流程国产化。多家客户同期发布 了基于新品的服务器及解决方案，标志着我国自主 CPU 技术取得重 要进展。 小米 AI 眼镜正式发布，重量更轻+待机更长 6 月 26 日小米发布 YU7、MIX Flip 2 等多款产品。其中，小米首款 AI 智能眼镜成为全场焦点，被雷军定义为"下一 ...

Market Review - The global stock market risk appetite has significantly improved due to the rapid de-escalation of the Middle East situation and the growing expectations of interest rate cuts overseas, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs. The A-share index has strengthened, driven by the large financial sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through its year-to-date high after three consecutive days of gains. Active theme investments have emerged, particularly in military, non-bank financials, and stablecoin concepts. Major A-share indices have generally risen, with the North Star 50, micro-cap indices, ChiNext, and CSI 2000 indices leading the gains, while the dividend index declined. In commodities, international oil prices and gold have significantly retreated, and the US dollar index continues to decline, with a year-to-date drop exceeding 10%, while the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has risen to around 7.15 [1][2]. Market Outlook - The global space for interest rate cuts has reopened, and the A-share market is expected to continue its "steady improvement." Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the market has begun pricing in rate cuts due to the easing of geopolitical risks and falling oil prices. Domestically, the A-share index has gradually risen due to the continuous inflow of medium- to long-term funds. The recent increase in trading volume and improved profitability in the A-share market have boosted investor risk appetite, reopening the upper range of the market's fluctuation center. Looking ahead, the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy have significantly weakened, and the domestic policy of "stabilizing growth" requires a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces will help elevate A-share valuations. Key areas of focus for the market include: balanced industry allocation with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI computing power, and AI applications. Thematic investments should pay attention to solid-state batteries, stablecoins, and self-controllable technologies [2]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with the probability of three rate cuts in the second half of the year rising. The actual GDP of the US in the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down to -0.5%, with personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, only growing by 0.5%. This has led to a downward adjustment in its contribution to GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in service consumption. Consumer confidence in the US has significantly declined this year, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on US economic data. Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest that if inflation remains moderate, they may support a rate cut in July. Despite significant internal divisions reflected in the June dot plot, the market has begun to price in rate cuts, leading to declines in the US dollar index and Treasury yields, while US stocks have risen. According to CME FedWatch, market expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have increased from two to three [5]. Domestic Economic Conditions - The weak dollar expectation is conducive to global capital flowing into emerging markets, with A-shares benefiting from domestic and foreign liquidity easing. In early May, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking multiple times, but within a month, it transitioned from a strong-side to a weak-side guarantee, indicating tightening liquidity expectations for the Hong Kong dollar, which may exert pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. However, this is expected to be a temporary impact. Looking ahead, the weak dollar driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts is likely to continue, further reducing the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy. In the second half of the year, the impact of tariffs on domestic exports may gradually become apparent, while the focus of domestic policy remains on "stabilizing growth," necessitating a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces, along with ample liquidity, is expected to directly promote the elevation of A-share valuations [5]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The increase in trading volume and profitability has helped boost risk appetite, with the A-share index center expected to rise in July. Year-to-date, medium- to long-term funds have continuously flowed into A-shares, with net purchases by social security, insurance, and annuity funds exceeding 200 billion yuan, contributing to a virtuous cycle of "reporting increases—funds entering—market stability." This week, the daily trading volume of A-shares has repeatedly exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with no significant increase in the issuance of equity funds and ETF subscriptions. Meanwhile, financing funds have net purchased for four consecutive trading days (from June 23 to June 26), and after the Shanghai Composite Index effectively broke through 3,400 points, the financing balance has further increased, reflecting an improvement in market risk appetite, which is conducive to further elevating the A-share index center in July [5]. Fundamental Analysis - From a fundamental perspective, the impact of tariffs on corporate profits is gradually becoming apparent, and the marginal weakening of the real estate market is expected to delay the upward trend in A-share earnings. In May, the year-on-year decline in industrial enterprises above designated size was -9.1%, a significant drop from April's 3%, with declines in volume, price, and profit margins. The PPI in May fell by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining in negative territory for 32 consecutive months. Historical experience shows a strong correlation between PPI and non-financial A-share earnings; if PPI continues to weaken, it may interrupt the brief earnings recovery seen in A-shares in the first quarter. On the other hand, the weak fundamental elasticity of A-shares suggests that they are more likely to experience a gradual elevation of the fluctuation center amid volatility [5]. Valuation and Risk Premium - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares and the PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas sectors are critical indicators for assessing market valuation. The latest valuation metrics for major A-share industries, including PE (TTM) and PB (LF), provide insights into the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [38][40].

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 1.49 trillion CNY, an increase of over 270 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a weekly increase of 1.91%[11] Market Style Performance - Small-cap and growth styles outperformed, with the ChiNext Index rising by 5.69% and the CSI 2000 Index increasing by 5.55%[11] - The relative advantage of small-cap stocks has rebounded into positive territory based on a rolling 30-day performance comparison[14] Participant Performance - The market sentiment index rose by 5.94%, indicating strong performance from active funds[22] - The private equity heavy index increased by 4.45%, reflecting a 52.84% rise since September 24, 2024[22] Financing and Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased to nearly 1.84 trillion CNY, indicating a growing investor confidence[31] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit down has decreased to fewer than 10 on most days, suggesting reduced market volatility[31] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included stablecoins and semiconductor chips, with significant developments in solid-state batteries and military technology[42] - The report emphasizes the importance of "self-reliance in technology" and "active domestic circulation" in the current economic context[46]

半导体行业 2025 年 6 月 27 日 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 行 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/06/13-2025/06/26） 行 业 DDR4 价格持续上涨 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2025年6月26日，半导体行业指数近两 周（2025/06/13-2025/06/26）累计上涨3.79%，跑赢沪深300指数2.41个百 分点；2025年以来申万半导体行业指数累计上涨2.31%，跑输沪深300指数 2.02个百分点。 SAC 执业证书编号： 细分板块涨跌幅：截至2025年6月26日，申万半导体板块各细分指数近两周 大多上涨 ...

Group 1 - The current smartphone market is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by AI integration and subsidy policies, which are expected to boost mobile phone sales back into a growth cycle [1][2] - Silicon-carbon anode materials are likely to become the mainstream technology route due to their high energy density, addressing the high energy consumption characteristics of AI phones [1][2] - VC uniform heat plates are anticipated to have long-term development space under the trend of AI terminal development [1][2] Group 2 - Layered OLED displays, known for their high brightness, low energy consumption, and long lifespan, are expected to become an important trend in mobile screen development [1][2] - The emergence and popularization of large AI models are opening up a new development path for AI glasses, with major manufacturers' layouts likely to accelerate their market introduction [1][2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency to expand domestic demand comprehensively [3] - Policies promoting consumption, such as trade-in programs for consumer goods, have shown significant effects, particularly in mobile phone subsidies and promotions for 3C products [3] - Chip companies with a high proportion of storage and analog products in the downstream 3C sector are expected to benefit from the recovery and innovation driven by consumption stimulation [3] Group 4 - The rapid growth of global large models and the increasing computational demands of individual models have significantly raised the demand for computing chips in both training and inference stages [4] - NVIDIA's launch of the GB300 series in March 2025, which offers 1.5 times the AI performance of its predecessor, highlights the advancements in computing power [4] - The demand for AIoT products is expected to grow as downstream application scenarios become increasingly diverse, with inference sides becoming a long-term driving force in the computing industry chain [4] Group 5 - In 2025, significant changes in global supply and demand are anticipated, with a focus on AI hardware deployment and domestic demand-driven upgrade needs on the demand side [5] - The supply side will focus on the domestic substitution of the semiconductor industry, with four investment themes suggested: AI terminals, domestic demand recovery, computing infrastructure, and self-sufficiency [5] - Specific recommendations include focusing on AI phones and glasses, semiconductor cycle recovery, GPU and PCB industries, and advanced packaging supply chains [5]

在全球数字化转型加速推进的当下，数据安全风险呈指数级增长。据权威机构 Statista 统计，2024 年全 球数据泄露事件年均增长率达 32.6%，而远程办公渗透率在企业端已突破 68%(来源：Gartner 2024 年企 业数字化转型报告)。在这样的大环境下，企业通信系统存在安全与效率的矛盾权衡。传统的公有云通 信工具，由于存在数据主权难以自主把控、数据泄露后溯源艰难等诸多短板，已然无法契合金融、军 工、科研等对安全要求极高的行业需求。正是在这一背景下，京数科技(上海)有限公司(以下简称 "京数 科技")其凭借全栈自主可控的私有通信产品，迅速成为高安全需求行业的优选解决方案。 技术硬实力：全链条可控的智造闭环 京数科技虽于 2022 年才正式成立，但其技术底蕴却能一路追溯至 2012 年的上海张江安全工作室。在 2024 年，京数科技成功跻身高新技术企业行列。公司精心布局 "1 + 2 + 1" 战略，以上海总部为核心枢 纽，联动双研发中心，并依托南京智造基地，构建起了一套完整且高效的产品闭环能力体系。其位于南 京的 16000㎡现代化工厂，实现了从芯片贴片到整机交付的全链条自主可控，真正做到了对产品每 ...

Group 1 - The technology growth sector showed strong performance, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, and the Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) reaching a peak increase of 1.4% during trading [1] - The constituent stock Longxin Zhongke released a new generation of domestic CPUs, leading to a price increase of over 14%, while companies in computing hardware such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng saw increases of nearly 8% and over 5% respectively [1] Group 2 - The electronic sector received a net inflow of 11.461 billion yuan, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries, with a weight of 38.7% in the Double Innovation Leader ETF [2][3] - The communication sector also saw significant net inflows of 7.694 billion yuan, with a rise of 2.29% [3] Group 3 - Key positive news includes the release of a new generation of domestic CPUs by Longxin Zhongke, which does not rely on any foreign authorized technology, and the overall recovery of the electronic sector [5] - The 2025 China AI Computing Power Conference highlighted the changing landscape of AI computing power, with Nvidia's stock reaching a historical high of $3.77 trillion in market capitalization [5] - Analysts predict that the demand for inference computing power will reach 62.2% by 2026, with technologies like liquid cooling and high-speed interconnects becoming investment hotspots [5] Group 4 - The Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) closely tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index, selecting 50 strategic emerging industry companies from the Sci-Tech and ChiNext boards, covering popular themes such as new energy and semiconductors [6] - The ETF provides a low-threshold entry point for investors to access multi-layered capital markets, with the potential to act as a "rebound pioneer" [6]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in discount rates is a key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market and creates favorable conditions for thematic investments, with opportunities in both industrial and trading themes. The article focuses on three major directions: cutting-edge technology, advanced manufacturing, and pattern improvement, discussing ten investment themes for the second half of 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Cutting-edge Technology - Theme 1: AI and Embodied Intelligence - AI possesses all essential characteristics for industrial trend investment, with investment paths expected to follow the patterns of "information infrastructure construction," "basic software deployment," "online application explosion," and "restructuring offline industries." The demand for computing power is anticipated to rise significantly [4]. - Embodied intelligence applications are accelerating in fields such as research education, hazardous jobs, and healthcare, with a focus on manufacturers capable of mass production [4]. - Theme 2: Bioeconomy and Brain-Machine Interfaces - Biotechnology is empowering traditional industries, with rapid advancements in synthetic biology and brain-machine integration technologies. The bioeconomy is expanding, benefiting various segments including biopharmaceuticals and bio-based materials [5]. - The brain-machine interface industry is still in the R&D phase, with several tech companies exploring hardware and application breakthroughs [5]. - Theme 3: 6G Communication - 6G is expected to revolutionize communication with lower latency and higher connection density compared to 5G, with research on technical standards starting in 2025 [6]. - The 6G industry chain will focus on breakthroughs in core areas such as chips, semiconductors, and software, with applications in low-altitude economy and smart manufacturing [6]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Theme 4: Low-altitude Economy and Commercial Space - The low-altitude economy is entering a "manned era," with significant market growth expected by 2026. The demand for satellite launches is anticipated to increase as multiple satellite constellations are deployed [7]. - Recommendations include companies involved in low-altitude vehicle manufacturing and satellite manufacturing services [7]. - Theme 5: Deep-sea Technology - The government has emphasized deep-sea technology, with policies accelerating the industrialization process. The marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2024 [8]. - Recommendations include companies benefiting from deep-sea resource development and those involved in marine engineering equipment [8]. - Theme 6: Self-sufficiency - The semiconductor sector is a focal point in the technology competition, with policies promoting domestic mergers and acquisitions to enhance the industry chain [9]. - Recommendations include leading companies in semiconductor equipment and materials [9]. Group 3: Pattern Improvement - Theme 7: Intelligent Driving - The penetration of advanced intelligent driving technologies is accelerating, with cost reductions in related hardware expected due to scale effects [10]. - Recommendations include companies producing intelligent driving chips and components [10]. - Theme 8: New Consumption Brands - The consumption recovery is showing a "K-shaped" divergence, with traditional consumption under pressure while new consumption is gaining momentum [11]. - Recommendations include emerging consumption sectors such as domestic beauty brands and pet economy [11]. - Theme 9: Price Cycle Products - Some cyclical industries are beginning to reduce capacity due to oversupply, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in the real estate and industrial raw materials sectors [12]. - Recommendations include companies in construction materials and steel [12]. - Theme 10: Regional Economy - The urgency to address regional development imbalances is increasing, with accelerated infrastructure investment in the western regions [12]. - Recommendations include companies benefiting from infrastructure investments and those in the tourism sector related to Hainan's free trade port [12].