Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 29, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.35% to 866.52 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.92% to 10,939 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Recently, geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East, and the possible shutdown of the US government have boosted risk - aversion sentiment, pushing up precious metal prices. The continuous expectation of interest rate cuts also supports precious metal prices. For silver, the good performance of US economic data strengthens the expectation of a soft landing of the US economy after preventive interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the industrial attribute of silver, leading to an accelerated rise in silver prices [5]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties continue, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power games intensify, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long - term. The continuation of global central bank gold purchases will likely push the long - term center of gold prices higher [5]. - In the short - term, with the approaching of China's National Day holiday, investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up and hold light positions during the holiday, while enterprises are advised to do a good job in hedging to avoid possible sharp fluctuations during the holiday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On September 29, compared with September 26, London gold spot rose 2.0% to 3816.09 dollars/ounce, London silver spot rose 3.9% to 46.93 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.9% to 3845.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 3.7% to 47.12 dollars/ounce, AU2510 rose 1.3% to 863.60 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 3.0% to 10912.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 1.2% to 861.90 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 2.9% to 10880.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.7 yuan/gram (up 193.1%), the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 32 yuan/kilogram (up 68.4%), the gold (TD - London) spread was - 10.29 yuan/gram (up 148.4%), the silver (TD - London) spread was - 1098 yuan/kilogram (up 13.1%), the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 79.14 (down 1.7%), the COMEX main ratio was 81.61 (down 1.7%), AU2512 - 2510 was 2.92 yuan/gram (down 16.1%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 27 yuan/kilogram (down 28.9%) [3]. Position Data - **ETF and Non - commercial Positions**: From September 25 to September 26, the gold ETF - SPDR rose 0.89% to 1005.72 tons, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.18% to 15361.84024 tons. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long positions rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the short positions rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, and the net long positions rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long positions rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the short positions fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the net long positions rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: From September 26 to September 29, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.26% to 68628.00 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory rose 2.71% to 1189648.00 kilograms. From September 25 to September 26, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.06% to 39946410 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory rose 0.08% to 530344533 troy ounces [3]. Other Related Data - **Dollar Index, Bond Yields, etc.**: From September 26 to September 29, the dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.19, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.27% to 3.63%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.27% to 4.20%, NYMEX crude oil rose 0.48% to 6643.70, the dollar/yuan central parity rate fell 8.66% to 7.11, VIX fell 0.05% to 15.29, and the S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 65.19 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum, driven by expectations of a government shutdown in the U.S. and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a target price of $3880 [1][5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, gold opened at $3758.15 per ounce, reached a low of $3756.83, and then surged to a high of $3833.94, closing at $3833.71, marking a daily increase of $71.26 or 1.896% from the previous close of $3762.45 [3]. - The gold price is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with support at the $3800 level, and any pullbacks are seen as buying opportunities [3][10]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. FHFA House Price Index, S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index, JOLTs Job Openings, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [3][6]. - The potential government shutdown could delay the release of critical economic reports, including the non-farm payroll data and consumer price index, which would impact investor sentiment and the dollar [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price has consistently tested and rebounded from the mid-band support level of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a strong upward trend, despite potential pullback risks [8]. - The daily chart shows that gold has broken through previous resistance levels and is now positioned for further gains, with key support levels at $3818 and $3800, and resistance levels at $3850 and $3880 [10][11].

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has experienced a dramatic rise amidst a generally weak global financial market, driven by strong demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets and inflation hedges, with prices increasing across the board [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices have surged nearly 43% year-to-date, breaking through the $3,700 per ounce mark, while silver has reached a 14-year high of over $46 per ounce [1][2]. - Platinum and palladium prices have also hit significant highs, with platinum reaching a 12-year peak [1]. - The precious metals sector has outperformed other popular assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, making it the best-performing asset class in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including supply-demand dynamics, market risk aversion, and macroeconomic monetary policies [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government's new tariffs on imports have bolstered market risk aversion, further supporting precious metal prices [2]. - Concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market and economic uncertainties have prompted investors to seek refuge in precious metals [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Gold Council reported a rapid increase in global gold ETF holdings, reaching 3,779.4 tons, the highest since August 2022 [2][4]. - Structural imbalances in supply and demand are evident across various precious metals, with strong demand from central banks for gold and increasing industrial demand for silver [3][4]. - Silver's supply is constrained due to rising demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics, while platinum is expected to face a supply shortfall of 85,000 ounces by 2025 [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Impact - The macroeconomic environment, particularly expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar, has significantly enhanced the attractiveness of precious metals [3][4]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy has led to increased inflows of investment and speculative funds into the precious metals market [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Investment institutions remain optimistic about the future of precious metals, with expectations of further price increases driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. debt risks [5]. - Despite high current silver prices, the underlying logic supporting gold's rise also applies to silver, with persistent supply gaps likely to drive silver prices higher [5]. - The outlook for platinum remains positive due to its safe-haven appeal and supply vulnerabilities, while palladium faces downward pressure from shifting demand dynamics in the automotive industry [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy recommendation is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [5] Core View of the Report - International risk aversion has increased, with geopolitical factors and tariff disruptions leading to a rise in market risk aversion. The Fed's independence and internal disagreements have added more uncertainties, increasing the risk aversion factors and making precious metals oscillate with a bullish bias. However, due to the large increase in precious metals prices in the previous period, there is a need to be vigilant about external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday [2][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - After the implementation of US tariffs and the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index rose significantly, and precious metals corrected to some extent. The market is currently pricing in two more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, totaling 50 basis points. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously driven by the expectation of consecutive Fed interest rate cuts. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Trump announced new high - tariff policies on multiple imported products starting from October 1, but will adhere to the 15% tariff ceiling for trade partners with existing agreements. The Trump administration is considering a $550 billion investment fund for infrastructure construction, with priority in semiconductor and key mineral fields [14] - In August, the US core PCE price index met expectations, and real consumer spending exceeded expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects a high probability of another cut in October. The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing support for the Fed's potential interest rate cut [16][17] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, but the number of continued claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating pressure in the labor market [16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was at a low since May, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rebounded. The ISM manufacturing index in August was below expectations, and the output index fell into the contraction range. The second - quarter GDP and core PCE price index were revised, showing that the US economic downward pressure is increasing [18] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - China and the US will hold talks in Spain. Trump mentioned sanctions on Russia, asked Europe to put economic pressure on China, and announced tariffs on semiconductor companies. After China's military parade, the geopolitical situation has become tense again [22] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - US non - farm payrolls in August were far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the need for interest rate cuts. The US stock market, copper, and crude oil may strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [24] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, the US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB has a certain appreciation expectation. The impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold is limited [28] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - International risk aversion has increased, and precious metals are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias. However, due to the large previous increase in precious metals prices, attention should be paid to external market fluctuations during the National Day holiday [31]

Group 1 - Market focus is on Trump's new tariffs, key US economic data, and commodity volatility, with investors observing the Federal Reserve's actions and risk sentiment [1] - Electronic Arts saw a significant increase of approximately 15% due to acquisition rumors, sparking speculation and merger interest in the gaming sector [10] - Boeing's stock rose by around 4% following reports that the FAA may ease some production restrictions on the 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, improving delivery prospects [10] - NIO's stock declined by about 6% due to ongoing losses and pricing pressures in the Chinese electric vehicle market, overshadowing optimistic policy support [10] Group 2 - The market is digesting the tariffs announced by Trump, with investors seeking clarity on whether the new taxes will be broadly applicable or subject to trade agreement exemptions [10] - Upcoming macro data, including key US inflation (PCE), consumer confidence, and manufacturing data, will test market confidence in the Federal Reserve's next steps [10] - Risk appetite appears cautious ahead of the US inflation data release, with the VIX remaining firm above recent lows as traders process policy and tariff uncertainties [10]

周一（9月29日）亚洲交易时段早盘，国际市场贵金属价格延续上周五的强势，进一步震荡攀高。截至 发稿时，国际现货金价刷新历史新高至3800美元上方，现货银价也强势突破47美元关口。 分析认为，在投资需求持续推动贵金属价格大幅走高的同时，美国政府"关门"危机迫近叠加美联储独立 性面临的挑战，避险情绪升温又给金银带来了新的上涨驱动。 降息预期+避险 贵金属继续轮番拉涨 在9月美国国会参议院否决众议院通过的一项临时拨款法案后，随着9月30日美国本财年结束日期的临 近，部分联邦政府机构因资金耗尽而"停摆"的风险加剧。 与此同时，美联储人事问题的不确定性，也在支撑市场的避险情绪。虽然美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的律师上周五警告称，即便是暂时解除她的职务也可能给金融市场带来"混乱与动荡"。"美联储 传声筒"也发出警告称美联储独立性已至关键时刻。但据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC)报道，在 当地时间27日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台发布了一张卡通图片，画面显示，他正在解雇美联储主 席杰罗姆・鲍威尔。 此外，对美股上涨持续性的怀疑，也吸引机构买入贵金属对冲潜在风险。高盛研究团队最新报告指出， 在全球政策不确 ...

周一（9月29日），现货黄金价格延续强势上行态势，突破3800美元关口并创下历史新高，最高触及3814.95美元/盎司，日内涨 幅约1.43%。 这一价格表现标志着黄金市场迎来了新的历史里程碑。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 【核心驱动因素】 美国政府停摆风险成为市场关注焦点。如果国会未能在周二前通过拨款法案，美国政府部分机构将于周三起停摆。这一不确定 性推升市场避险情绪，促使资金流向黄金。 同时，美国8月PCE通胀数据符合预期，强化了美联储降息预期。根据CME FedWatch工具，市场预计美联储10月降息概率接近 88%。低利率环境降低了持有黄金的机会成本，进一步支撑金价。 【市场展望】 交易员正密切关注周一晚些时候多位美联储官员的讲话。任何鹰派言论都可能提振美元，对金价构成压力。 技术面显示，黄金中长期看涨基调稳固，但14日相对强弱指数高企于75上方，表明已进入超买区域。金价短期内可能面临整 理，但若能有效突破3810美元阻力，有望进一步上探3850美元。 随着避险需求与降息预期共同发挥作用，黄金在突破历史高点后仍具备上行潜力，但短期需警惕技术性回 ...

9月29日周一，受美国政府可能停摆的风险因素影响，美元下跌。受美元走弱和美联储进一步降息的预期推动，金价首次突破每盎司3800美元的关 键水平。欧股集体高开，亚洲股市多数上涨。 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%，英国富时100指数涨0.34%，法国CAC40指数涨0.36%，德国DAX指数涨0.41%。 亚洲股市方面，日经225下跌0.89%，报44940.87，韩国综指上涨1.49%，报3436.99，富时海峡指数上涨0.23%，报4274.9。 美元指数下跌近0.26%，报97.94。金属商品走强，现货黄金触及每盎司3805.88美元的历史新高，现货白银大涨超2%至46美元/盎司，创十四年新 高，铂金、钯金均上涨，布油小幅下挫，下跌0.03%。 核心市场走势如下： 受到美国政府可能停摆的影响，欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%。 英国富时100指数涨0.34%。 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.33%。 英国富时100指数涨0.34%。 法国CAC 40指数涨0.36%。 德国DAX指数涨0.41%。 日经225指数下跌0.8%。 韩国综指上涨1.49%，报3436.99，本月涨幅达7.8%。 富时海峡指数 ...

9月29日，现货黄金突然大幅攀升，日内大涨超55美元，触及3819美元/盎司，创下新高。金价日内大涨超55美 元。受国际金价接连上涨影响，国内品牌金饰克价已经超1100元大关。 上周，随着美联储降息落地、避险情绪升温及资金持续涌入，金价显著抬升。COMEX黄金期货价格周度上涨 2.27%报3789.8美元/盎司，周内再创历史新高。 而本周一，现货黄金价格突然大幅攀升。截至发稿时，现货黄金已经涨超1.5%，最高报3819.8美元/盎司。同时， COMEX黄金期货周一也由跌转涨，涨幅接近1%，最高报3848.8美元/盎司。 消息面上，美国国会四位最高领袖将于当地时间周一在白宫会晤特朗普。此时，若两党无法就短期支出法案达成 一致，联邦资金将于当地时间次日(9月30日)宣告耗尽。市场担心美国政府可能关门，这可能会推迟本周关键就业 数据的发布，并可能给美联储的货币政策路径蒙上阴影。 9月29日，国内部分黄金珠宝品牌金饰价格继续上涨。具体来看，国内金饰价格跟涨。周生生足金饰品标价1111 元/克，较前一日的1108元/克的价格上涨3元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价1115元/克，较前一日1110元/克的价格上 涨5元/克；周 ...