Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar against the Japanese yen continues to decline due to rising risk aversion, which strengthens the yen as a traditional safe-haven currency, while concerns over potential new tariffs from the U.S. on Europe put pressure on the Australian dollar [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market is increasingly worried about the U.S. potentially imposing new tariffs on Europe, which could escalate into broader trade tensions, thereby increasing demand for the yen and pressuring the riskier Australian dollar [1] - Investors are focusing on upcoming Australian employment data, with expectations of job growth but a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Stronger-than-expected data could alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown in Australia, potentially limiting the downside for the Australian dollar [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The Australian dollar against the Japanese yen shows a clear downtrend, consistently trading below short-term moving averages, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment. Momentum indicators are overall negative, with no clear reversal signals present [1] - If selling pressure continues, the exchange rate may approach key support levels. Conversely, if the price finds support and rebounds, it will face resistance from short-term moving averages. A breakthrough of this dynamic resistance could ease short-term downward pressure and open up space for further rebounds [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical turmoil overseas has led to the selling of US assets, and the situation remains unclear, causing the market's risk - aversion sentiment to rise [2][4] - The domestic A - share market is in a stage where the management actively cools down the market to consolidate the foundation for a slow - bull market. With abundant domestic funds, there is no risk of a systematic crisis [4] - During the annual report performance disclosure period, industries with industrial support, policy catalysts, and performance support should be selected. Attention should be paid to the technology and cyclical industries. In the technology sector, AI, power, energy storage, robots, computing power, and storage are recommended; in the cyclical sector, chemicals and non - ferrous metals are recommended. The index has support in the range of 4000 - 4050, and the subsequent direction is expected to be upward [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - Trump listed 365 achievements at the press conference on the first anniversary of his return to the White House, compared himself to Buffett through his wife, considered "taking back" the Panama Canal, refused to attend the G7 meeting in Paris, and considered involving Machado in Venezuelan affairs. He also claimed that the US would have no trade deficit next year and proposed to replace the "Peace Committee" at the UN [6] - The European Parliament froze the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement [7] - The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold, which will increase its gold reserves to 700 tons [8] - The US Supreme Court did not rule on the challenge to Trump's global tariff legitimacy, and the next ruling window is in a month [8] - Regarding the Greenland issue, Canada's military simulated a US "military invasion" scenario, Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, the US planned to cut about 200 NATO - related positions, a Danish pension fund announced to liquidate US Treasury bonds, and Trump P - mapped Greenland, Canada, and Venezuela into the US territory [8] - He Lifeng attended the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting and visited Switzerland [9] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it had received an invitation from the US to join the "Peace Committee" [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [11] - Shanghai released an action plan to strengthen the linkage between futures and spot markets and enhance the level of non - ferrous metal commodities [12] - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance implemented an interest subsidy policy for loans to small, medium, and micro enterprises [13] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Price Performance**: The prices of major stock index futures contracts generally showed a downward trend. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index fell 0.33%, and the corresponding futures contracts IF2602, IF2603, IF2606, and IF2609 all declined, with the decline ranging from 0.32% to 0.47% [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of various futures contracts changed to different degrees. For example, the trading volume of the CSI 500 futures contracts increased by 47,043 lots, and the open interest increased by 12,541 lots [16] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Index Performance**: On Tuesday, the broader market showed a volatile trend. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.79%. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, real estate, transportation, and building decoration led the gains, while communication, military industry, computer, and power equipment also had certain increases [3] - **Market Style Impact**: Different market styles had different impacts on major indexes. For example, in the Shanghai 50 index, the cyclical style had a daily contribution of - 0.02%, and the financial style had a daily contribution of 0.20% [37] - **Valuation Situation**: The report presented the valuation and historical quantile data of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, which can help investors understand the market's valuation level and position [39][42] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which can reflect the market's liquidity situation [50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged to historical highs, driven by three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and rising geopolitical risks [3][4][5] Group 2 - The first driving force is the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which diminishes the attractiveness of the dollar and leads to a natural flow of funds into gold as a risk-averse asset [3] - The second driving force is the sustained high levels of gold purchases by central banks over the past two years, treating gold as a strategic reserve, which supports the market and instills confidence [4] - The third driving force is the escalation of geopolitical risks, which heightens uncertainty and boosts safe-haven sentiment, making gold a preferred asset during unstable times [5] Group 3 - Historical patterns indicate that greater risks lead to stronger gold performance, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, where economic turmoil and liquidity easing resulted in significant gold price increases [7] Group 4 - Ordinary investors have three main ways to participate in the gold market: bank gold accumulation, which has lower fees and moderate liquidity; gold ETFs, which are cost-effective and highly liquid; and physical gold bars, which have slightly higher premiums and lower liquidity [9] Group 5 - Practical advice for entering the gold market includes building positions gradually due to price fluctuations, setting profit-taking and stop-loss levels, and maintaining a long-term perspective as gold is more suitable for asset allocation rather than short-term trading [11]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), surging by 3.01% to reach a new historical high, indicating strong investor interest and potential buying signals [1][10]. Fund Performance - Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF recorded a trading volume of 106 million yuan, an increase of 14% compared to the previous period, and saw a net subscription of 18.6 million units, accumulating a total of 635 million yuan over the past ten days [1][10]. Stock Performance - Over 60% of the constituent stocks rose by more than 2%, with notable stocks such as Baiyin Non-Ferrous, Guocheng Mining, Xibu Gold, Hunan Baiyin, and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [3][12]. - Key stocks like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining also showed significant gains, with Shandong Gold rising over 6% and Zijin Mining increasing by more than 2% [3][12]. Market Influences - A significant purchase order of 150 tons of gold by the Polish central bank was announced, which will increase Poland's gold reserves to 700 tons, positioning it among the top ten countries globally in terms of gold reserves [4][12]. - International gold prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4,800 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, while domestic gold jewelry prices have also surpassed 1,500 yuan per gram [4][12]. Economic and Policy Context - The analysis from Dongwu Futures indicates that precious metals are experiencing upward volatility due to rising geopolitical tensions and potential tariffs imposed by the U.S. on European countries, which are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals [5][14]. - The Shanghai government has released a plan to enhance the competitiveness of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve resource allocation and global pricing influence [5][14]. - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities suggest that escalating global geopolitical conflicts may reshape the global metal supply chain, potentially driving up the demand and value of key strategic metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [5][14]. ETF Coverage - Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds comprehensively track indices covering copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles, including precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery) [6][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold and silver are entering an epic moment of safe-haven investment due to extreme global macro risks, geopolitical tensions, and volatility in the global bond market [1][3] - Gold futures surged by $157.00 to reach a record high of $4752.20, while silver rose by $5.343 to $93.89, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid stock market declines [1][3] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and Europe is deteriorating, particularly due to Trump's strong statements regarding tariffs, which are contributing to market uncertainty [1][3] Group 2 - The significant sell-off in the global debt market is influenced by the sharp decline in Japanese government bonds, with the 40-year Japanese bond yield exceeding 4% and the U.S. 30-year bond yield rising to 4.93% [2][4] - Despite rising yields typically pressuring non-yielding assets, investors are increasingly viewing gold as the ultimate safe haven during periods of credit system instability [2][4] - The next upward target for gold is set at $4800.00, supported by a weakening dollar index and stable oil prices above $60.50, with ongoing geopolitical conflicts expected to drive price momentum [2][4] Group 3 - In the new era of resource nationalism and decoupling monetary policies, gold is seen as more than just a simple store of value; it is now a core defensive asset on balance sheets [2][4] - The strong bullish trend in gold is expected to continue, and investors should monitor key resistance levels to capture potential premium opportunities [2][4]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariff threats have led to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly affecting U.S. assets [1] - U.S. markets experienced a "triple whammy" with all major indices declining: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.76%, the S&P 500 dropped over 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.39% [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.41%, closing at 98.642, marking its lowest point in about two weeks [3] Group 2 - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by over 6 basis points, reaching 4.29%, the highest level since mid-August of the previous year, indicating a sell-off in the bond market [5] - The rise in bond yields suggests a decrease in bond prices, reflecting a broader trend of asset sell-offs in the U.S. [5] - Increased safe-haven demand led to new highs in international gold and silver prices, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7] Group 3 - Trump's announcement of a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne aims to pressure French President Macron to join a proposed Gaza "peace committee" [7] - Despite Trump's threats, France currently has no intention of accepting the invitation to join the committee, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]

澳元/美元 澳元昨日震荡上行，刷新9个交易日高位，现汇价交投于0.6740附近。美元指数在贸易不确定担忧升温 激发避险情绪的打压下刷新10个交易日低位是支撑澳元攀升的主要原因。此外，时段内中国表现良好的 经济数据也对澳元构成了一定的支撑。今日关注0.6850附近的压力情况，下方支撑在0.6650附近。 1月21日，法国巴黎银行大宗商品策略主管大卫·威尔逊表示，新的地缘政治不确定性和对美联储独立性 的担忧有望推动黄金价格比预期更早达到每盎司5000美元，而实物供应错配的缓解应该会使白银价格在 触及每盎司100美元后很快回落。 对于黄金，威尔逊表示："黄金在不确定性中蓬勃发展。我们在去年 看到了这一点——去年黄金价格屡创新高——而现在我们继续看到这种不确定性在起作用。""目前，你 看到的所有支撑黄金价格的因素都在起作用。我们在去年11月预测，认为黄金迟早会达到5000美元。在 去年11月看来，这似乎是个相当大胆的预测，但现在你看看，黄金价格已经在每盎司4700美元了。5000 美元并非遥不可及。" 另外，波兰央行（NBP）当地时间周二表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将使该国的 黄金储备总量增加到7 ...

全球债券投资者越来越看空日本政府债务，因其正面临财政担忧和利率逐步走高的压力。这激起了人们 对长期被称为"寡妇制造者"的交易的兴趣——做空日本国债，当收益率飙升时将获利。 1月21日，随着财政担忧加剧，日本一度沉寂的债券市场的波动性自去年年初以来一直在上升，并对全 球产生了显著的外溢影响。在此之前，日本央行取消了收益率曲线控制政策并开始减少购买日本国债。 周二的抛售加剧了持有巨额政府债券投资组合的日本人寿保险公司的压力。日本一家大型人寿保险公司 的投资经理表示，对未来稳定性的担忧将使这些保险公司很难重返日本国债，即使利率变得更具吸引 力。 市场"抛售美国"浪潮自周二全面展开。上周六特朗普威胁对八个欧洲国家征收关税，这与美国控制格陵 兰岛直接相关，已将地缘政治推到了资产定价的核心。投资者纷纷减持美国风险资产，导致主要指数创 下自10月以来最差单日表现，并将标普500指数和纳斯达克指数拖入年内负值区间。 美国股市、国债和美元的同时抛售，是此次事件引人注目的原因。历史上，风险规避事件往往支撑国债 和美元。但这一次，两者与股票一同遭到抛售，这表明市场信心的丧失，而非美国市场内部简单的避险 轮动。 周二的抛售加剧了持有 ...

Group 1 - The global landscape is changing significantly as of 2026, with increased risk aversion in markets due to political maneuvers by former US President Trump, leading to gold prices surpassing $4,800 per ounce and approaching the $5,000 target [1] - The evolution of international circumstances has lowered investor risk appetite, enhancing the attractiveness of bond assets, which provide stable interest income, especially as the bond market in China continues to expand and attract global investors [1] - Following the implementation of growth-stabilizing policies on September 24, 2024, the stock market has begun to show signs of recovery, establishing a preliminary slow bull market, which has shifted investor focus from bonds to stocks, resulting in a significant decline in the bond market [1] Group 2 - By 2026, a more balanced development opportunity is anticipated for stocks and bonds, with a significant amount of two-year and four-year fixed deposits maturing, totaling approximately 50 trillion RMB, which may lead to a reallocation of funds towards equities or bonds based on investor risk preferences [2] - Current household savings in China have reached 165 trillion RMB, with the real estate market in adjustment, prompting a need for new investment channels, primarily in the stock and bond markets [2] - Investors are advised to allocate assets based on their risk tolerance, with a portion in equities to benefit from the slow bull market and another in fixed-income products for stable returns, alongside a suggested 20% allocation to precious metals for risk mitigation [3] Group 3 - The debate over whether to hold stocks or cash during the upcoming Spring Festival is ongoing, with expectations of a spring market rally despite recent market fluctuations, as January typically sees a peak in credit issuance, estimated at 3 to 4 trillion RMB, which could provide significant liquidity to the capital markets [3] - The structure of holdings is crucial; holding quality stocks or funds aligns with the upward trend of the slow bull market, while overvalued stocks lacking performance support may warrant profit-taking [4] - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating against the USD, having recently surpassed the 7 mark and stabilizing around 6.96, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and China's asset stabilization policies [4] Group 4 - The global monetary system is undergoing transformation, with the USD's position declining due to increased US government debt exceeding $38 trillion and actions undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to further appreciation of the RMB [5] - The current technological landscape is characterized by the fourth industrial revolution centered around AI, with significant potential for the emergence of trillion-dollar companies in this sector, particularly in China, which has a vast consumer market [6] - AI applications are expected to be a major focus in 2026, with promising areas including humanoid robots and various "AI+" applications in sectors like healthcare, education, and finance, presenting numerous investment opportunities [6]

Market Overview - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has weakened, leading to increased market risk aversion, with Hong Kong stocks showing a cautious sentiment. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.37% to close at 26,585.06 points, with a total turnover of 250.45 billion HKD [1] - Dongwu Securities noted that despite the global reduction in Fed rate cut expectations, domestic investors remain optimistic, suggesting that there is limited time left for potential rate cuts this year [1] Blue Chip Performance - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 3.69% to 77.25 HKD, contributing 19.94 points to the Hang Seng Index. The surge was influenced by a strong performance in the U.S. storage chip sector [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included Kuaishou-W (01024) up 3.62% and Baidu Group-SW (09888) up 3.29%, while Shenzhou International (02313) and China Resources Land (01109) saw declines of 3.15% and 2.97%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - The storage chip sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation rising due to positive sentiment from the U.S. market. Gold stocks also performed well, with spot gold surpassing 4,800 USD for the first time [3][4] - The robotics sector was active, with MicroPort Robotics-W rising by 17.3%, indicating a growing ecosystem in this field. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to support humanoid robot technology innovation [5][6] - Lithium mining stocks surged, driven by a significant increase in carbonate lithium futures prices, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 5.54% and 4.78%, respectively [6] Notable Stock Movements - China National Heavy Duty Truck (03808) rose by 7.47%, benefiting from policy support and expanding market opportunities in electric vehicles [7] - Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) increased by 6.14%, reflecting the positive outlook for the storage industry [7] - Wobot (06600) reached a new high, closing up 10.87% [7] Company Announcements - Fan Yuan International (02516) announced a conditional agreement to acquire shares in COPE Holding and Hyperlining Holding for a total consideration of 15.777 million USD, aiming to adapt to changes in U.S. trade and tariff policies [9]