Group 1 - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves over the past year due to structural concerns regarding the credibility of the US dollar system, indicating a revaluation of gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the escalation in the Middle East and the recurring Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the long-term value of gold [1] - The recent pullback in gold prices after a surge in risk aversion highlights the "buy the expectation, sell the fact" trading pattern, which has led to increased volatility in gold prices [1] Group 2 - The gold market has entered a futures pricing era, with institutions actively participating through options combinations and cross-period arbitrage, characterized by quick in-and-out trading strategies [3] - Current trading dynamics show intense competition between bulls and bears around the $3275 per ounce mark, with critical support levels identified between $3265 and $3260 per ounce [3] - A potential technical rebound could occur if the support levels hold, while the $3300 per ounce mark remains a significant resistance level [3] Group 3 - Suggested trading strategy includes selling on rebounds between $3327 and $3335, with a stop loss at $3344 and targets set at $3300 and $3270 [4] - Emphasis on the importance of self-discipline, error correction, and strict adherence to investment principles as fundamental to success in trading [4] - The analysis covers a comprehensive understanding of global economic systems and various trading instruments, aiming to guide investors towards correct investment directions [4]

当无数向往自由的打工人仰望五一假期的机票价格时，他们期待的 " 价格跳水 " 正在变得越来越遥不可及。 还有人笃定 "五一前一定会降！"于是，当看到某条航线票价 500+ 时，选择了按兵不动，心想"再等等，还能更低"。结果等来的不是跳水，而是跳 涨。 | 后天 用器 周五 周日 周一 | | 周六 | | 更多 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 04-30 01 02 | | 03 | 04 | 05 日期 | | ¥ 1170 ¥626 ¥1142 ¥76 | ¥ 918 × 696 | | | | | 08:00 35时15分 -- 中特 -- | | 23:10 | | 4-4-6-2 V 1 05 8 | | 205 00 T 4 上海 | | 通城 | | 日代■ASS P | | 6 山熊 �山航 总39时10分 ● 航安免费退改 | | | | 学生再减￥10 | | 06:55 2055分 一中静 | | 14:40 | | 4-1250 V ZUS | | 高崎T4 大连 | | 速增 | | 日代画 A 22 P | | 6 山航 专山航 总7时45分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of April and looking forward to May, investors' preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased, while their attention to credit products has decreased month - on - month, but there may be a characteristic of "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of April, six mainstream expectations of investors for the May bond market are summarized: preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly; Trump's tariff policy may promote the early implementation of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue; the current expectation of monetary easing is still strong, with most investors expecting an RRR cut in May - June and an interest rate cut more likely in the third quarter; most investors believe that the bond market will strengthen overall in May, and the probability of a bull - flattening curve is high; most investors' judgments on the operating ranges of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields are narrow, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile; in terms of operations, most investors are neutral in practice and prefer to keep their positions basically stable, possibly showing "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Survey Background - A bond market questionnaire "What to expect from the May bond market?" was released on April 25, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the May 2025 bond market. As of 24:00 on April 27, a total of 331 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors such as bank self - operation, securities firm self - operation, public funds/special accounts, and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 48% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is below 1.60%, and 45% think it is between 1.60% - 1.70% (inclusive). 76% of investors believe the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may be within 1.80%, and 11% think it may be between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). Most investors expect the bond market in May to trade around the tariff policy, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is unlikely to return to the previous high in April [11]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 41% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May will be less than 1.8%, and 43% think it is between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). 53% of investors believe the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May is between 1.90% - 2.00% (inclusive), and 31% think it is within 1.90%. The overall bond market in May may be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. 3.3 Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economic Trend - 62% of investors think the economic trend in the second quarter will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month weakening", a significant increase compared with the April questionnaire results. 22% of investors think it will show the characteristic of "year - on - year recovery but month - on - month weaker than the seasonal level". 10% of investors think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month in line with the seasonal level", and 5% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month exceeding the seasonal level", a significant decrease compared with the April questionnaire results. The deviation between the economic fundamental expectation and the reality needs a certain verification period [19]. 3.4 Expectations for RRR and Interest Rate Cuts - **RRR Cut**: 66% of investors think an RRR cut will occur in May - June, and 17% think it will be in the third quarter. Investors have a high expectation for an RRR cut and expect it to happen earlier [21]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: 49% of investors think an interest rate cut will occur in the third quarter, 31% think it will be in May - June. 12% of investors think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025. Investors' expectation for an interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the proportion of those who think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025 has decreased significantly [21]. 3.5 Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Bond Market - 46% of investors think it may promote the early implementation of RRR and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 27% think the subsequent focus will be on the expectation of tariff policy cooling, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. 15% think it may trigger non - US countries to impose tariffs on China, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 12% think it may strengthen the policy - makers' determination to stabilize the capital market, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. Overall, investors generally think the subsequent impact of Trump's tariff policy on the bond market is still positive [23]. 3.6 Expectations for the May Bond Market行情 - 27% of investors think the interest rate curve will strengthen overall and show a bull - flattening trend in May. 26% think it will strengthen overall and show a bull - steepening trend. 16% think it is difficult to judge the trend of the interest rate curve in May. 10% think the short - end of the interest rate curve will be strong and the long - end will be weak, and 10% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Overall, more investors are optimistic about the May bond market, but there is some divergence between the expectations of a bull - flattening and a bull - steepening curve [25]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 49% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. 23% think they should hold cash and wait, and then add positions after the market回调 to the expected level. 13% think they can start adding positions. 11% think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. 4% think they should reduce the duration to control risks. Most investors are neutral in practice, and keeping positions stable is the mainstream view [29]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Varieties in May - 18% and 17% of investors think the opportunities for long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are relatively certain. 15%, 10%, and 10% of investors are more optimistic about medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and local government bonds respectively. About 9% of investors prefer medium - low - grade urban investment bonds. Investors have a higher preference for interest - rate products such as interest - rate bonds, certificates of deposit, and government bonds, and their preference for credit products has decreased month - on - month. The preferred varieties have shifted from the short - end to the long - end and ultra - long - end [32]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in May - 31% of investors think the central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the main pricing logics for the May bond market. 16% and 15% of investors think fiscal stimulus, government bond issuance, and fundamental data such as real estate and PMI are the main pricing logics. 13% of investors think the implementation of the US tariff policy is the main pricing logic. The central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the most concerned factors for investors [34].

价格波动性与市场复杂性呈现螺旋式上升。俄乌冲突导致的天然气价格单日波动超30%，LME镍期货逼 空事件等极端案例，既考验企业的风险承受能力，也为套利交易创造空间。头部贸易商通过建立"波动 率指数矩阵"，将价格异动转化为交易机会，2023年在能源品类实现22%的超额收益。这种市场特性倒 逼企业构建多层次分析体系，某金属贸易商融合卫星遥感数据、港口吞吐量和期货持仓量等300余个指 标，将市场预判准确率提升至75%。 行业竞争要素发生根本转变。传统资源禀赋优势正被数据资产和人才储备所替代，全球大宗交易机构对 量化分析师的需求三年增长170%，顶尖交易团队中机器学习专家占比超过40%。这种转变在农产品领 域尤为显著，ABCD四大粮商通过建立"数字农业生态"，整合土壤传感、气象预测和期货对冲系统，将 种植决策响应时间从季度级缩短至小时级。 二、大宗商品采购管理体系的精益化、数智化重构 传统采购模式正在经历"三级跃迁"。从保证供应的1.0阶段，演进至风险管控和精益采购的2.0阶段，最 终迈向数智化决策赋能的价值创造3.0形态。某生猪养殖企业的转型实践具有示范意义：通过搭建"采购 决策驾驶舱"，整合供需平衡表、成本模型和物 ...

乐惠国际 20250428 摘要 • 乐汇国际 2024 年啤酒装备业务利润稳定在 9,600 万元左右，精酿鲜啤业 务虽亏损，但作为第二主业发展优秀，公司定位冷链短程保鲜鲜啤领域国 内领先，已建五家规模化工厂，预计 2025 年扭亏为盈。 • 公司对未来发展充满信心，装备板块保持稳定增长，鲜啤板块 2025 年一 季度已实现盈利，销售渠道表现优异，鲜啤销售在餐饮渠道下滑 20%- 30%的情况下逆势增长 60%。 • 现金流改善得益于项目执行质量提升、稳健经营策略、市场结构多元化以 及应收款的专人管理，有效控制经营风险。 • 2024 年鲜啤业务亏损超预期因重资产模式导致摊销折旧费用高，人员成 本刚性，但随着销售规模扩大，预计 2025 年通过直营转加盟、即饮渠道 增长 60%等措施实现盈利。 • 鲜啤市场占比虽低（<1%），但被认为是未来趋势，五大集团陆续推出鲜 啤产品，公司已建立领先的商业模式，技术和口感优势实现 30 公里内 90 天保质期。 Q&A • 公司坚持高端定价策略，鲜啤价格高于主流高端啤酒 50%-60%，已获市 场认可。2025 年经销商数量接近 300 个，较 2024 年显著增长，销 ...

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承蒙大家厚爱，这次我也获得了2025年嵩岳之巅你卓越分析师奖项，希望接下来与大家继续携手前行，创造更为辉煌的佳绩！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"下一个百日行动与商品涨价"，"印巴冲突与OPEC+增产"，"金价定价权与重要会议"，"重要表态与南下资金"四个方面解读了基 本面的一些信息，并结合百日维新，商品涨价，印巴，金银油，保险入局，增量政策，稳就业，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布局思路。 点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 2025年郑州理财博览会顺利落幕，感谢敦兰财经的邀请，这次会场见到了许多老师和老朋友，希望这次主持的圆桌论坛给大家带去一些启发和思考。 当然，在如今的白宫赢学叙事逻辑中，也许又是另外一番景象。 上周一，由于特朗普对鲍威尔的炮轰损害了投资者对美国资产的信心，美元指数暴跌至2022年3月以来的最低水平；但随着特朗普表达了对谈判的乐观情 绪，而且软化了对鲍威尔的态度，美元开始回升，上周终于出现了五周来首度收涨，收于99.61。 美国总统特朗普第二个任期执政将满百日。 当地时间4月27日，美国广播公司、《华盛顿邮报》以及益普索集团联合进行的一项最新民意调查结果显示，特朗普的执政百日支持率 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC能源化工研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本轮反弹的定价 -- 非基本面的驱动 原油的非基本面定价因子 原油的非基本面定价因子 失业率:U3 失业率:U6 25 20 15 10 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2002 最近两周最关键的变化在于不仅出现了近端月差走强,也同步走出了表征美国经济预期的各项指标的反弹 共同驱动油价反弹。此前由OPEC限产解除形成的利空定价,叠加美国表退定价都暗示有些过度,而近期美国 非农数据页阶段性证伪美国即刻衰退的预期, 油价显著回暖 来源:Wind,中信建投期货整理 中信建投期货 在投取得 取消自愿减产后的增幅 来源:Kpler,中信建投期货整理 | 年份 | | | | | 2025年 | | | | | | | | | | 2026年 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

本文来自微信公众号：小马宋，作者：小马宋，题图来自：AI生成 过去的几十年中，营销人员一直都在用心理定价法——以999或者99做价格结尾。 而且，事实胜于雄辩。我们可以看看"Gumroad's sales"的不同定价对应的销售量。 | price | conversion rate | price | conversion rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | .99 | 3.06% | 1.99 | 5.2% | | | 1.88% | 2 | 2.39% | | 2.99 | 3.44% | | 3.99 3.21% | | 3 | 2.11% | 4 | 2.39% | | 4.99 | 4.67% | 5.99 | 1.56% | | 5 | 3.84% | 6 | 1.42% | 来源: Gumroad 粗看这个表，很多人会认为功劳在于价格中的数字9。其实还有一个因素居功至伟：小数点左边的数字 （下文简称左数字）。 其实当左数字变化的时候，心理定价策略最为有效。从$3.80到$3.79这种小数点右侧1美分的价格变化无 足轻重，但$3.00 到 $2.99这样的1美分的 ...

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing intense volatility, indicating a critical turning point for gold assets [1] - Fund managers are showing divergent strategies regarding gold stocks, with some significantly reducing their positions while others continue to buy [1][2] - The investment strategy debate around gold is quietly unfolding, reflecting differing views on its future performance [2] Group 2 - Dong Chen, a fund manager, has shifted from heavily investing in gold stocks to completely exiting them, replacing them with stocks from other sectors [2] - In contrast, Yuan Weide from China Europe Fund has aggressively bought into gold stocks, making significant additions to his portfolio [3] - The divergence in fund managers' strategies highlights the complexity of gold pricing logic and suggests potential increased volatility in the gold market [3]