"新"向未来——平安基金2025年中期投资策略会于6月25日-26日举行，多位行业专家对当前经济形势、 热门行业发展前景、资产配置等话题展开探讨。中泰金融国际有限公司首席经济学家李迅雷在本次会议 上作题为《外部环境不利影响加大下，中国经济走势与政策选择》的主旨演讲，深刻剖析了在特朗普 2.0时代"反秩序性"冲击下，中国经济面临的内外挑战与破局路径。李迅雷指出，随着全球步入高震 荡、低增长的新常态，中国亟需通过政策创新激活内循环潜力，并在资产配置中把握历史性机遇。 外部系统性冲击正在形成 在震荡中布局确定性 全球经济正步入高震荡、低增长时代，这一趋势对中国经济产生了深远影响。李迅雷指出，全球收入与 财富分化加剧，主要经济体前1%和10%的居民财富占比持续攀升，这种分化导致社会矛盾加剧，经济 政策的不确定性上升。 在外部环境变差的背景下，中国经济内循环面临诸多挑战。李迅雷指出，美国对华关税政策的不确定 性，可能导致中国出口下滑，进而影响经济增长、就业和企业盈利。此外，出口下降可能加剧产能过剩 问题，进一步抑制制造业投资，而消费市场的疲软也难以在短期内有效弥补外需的不足。 在当前局势下，资产如何配置成为市场关注的焦 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on June 25, with the oil and gas sector continuing to decline, while the National Certificate Free Cash Flow Index slightly decreased by about 0.1% [1] - Weichai Heavy Machinery reached the daily limit increase, with Chongqing Department Store, Anfu Technology, and Yaxiang Integration leading the gains [1] - The low-fee Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) followed the index adjustment, with the latest scale at 3.735 billion yuan, leading similar products [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities noted that the market is in a recovery phase after a significant decline, remaining within a fluctuation framework since mid-May [1] - The narrative of overseas "chaotic era" has not changed, with the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the involvement of the U.S. increasing uncertainty [1] - In light of potential negative events, the strategy of "taking profits" may be a relatively stable trading approach, emphasizing the importance of allocating to safe-haven assets [1] Group 3 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) closely tracks the National Certificate Free Cash Flow Index, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow after liquidity, industry, and ROE stability screening [1] - The index is characterized by high quality and strong risk resistance, making it suitable for core portfolio allocation and long-term investment needs [1] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The report mainly offers data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data for stock and bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: On June 24, 2025, yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.296%, and Japan at 3.864%. Changes over different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year) also differed. The US had a latest change of - 0.053, a one - year change of 0.074 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields on June 24, 2025, were as follows: the US at 3.900%, and Japan at 0.733%. There were also different changes over various time - periods. The US had a latest change of 0.060 and a one - year change of - 0.850 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economy Currency Exchange Rates**: On June 24, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar to the Brazilian real was 5.511 with a 0.26% latest change. Rates and changes varied for other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On June 24, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6092.180 with a 1.11% latest change. Different indices had different performance over various time - frames. The S&P 500 had a one - year change of 12.16% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different types of credit bond indices (US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, etc.) had positive changes over different time - periods. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.42% and a one - year change of 5.35% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: On June 24, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3420.57 with a 1.15% increase. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., also had their respective closing prices and percentage changes [4]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were provided. The CSI 300 had a PE (TTM) of 13.03 with a 0.13环比 change [4]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium values and their环比 changes were given for different indices. The CSI 300 had a risk premium of 3.70 with a 0.00环比 change [4]. - **Fund Flow**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flow were presented for different segments of the A - share market. The A - share market had a latest fund flow value of 491.60 and a 5 - day average of - 240.08 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: Latest trading volume values and环比 changes were provided for different market segments. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a latest trading volume of 14145.82 with a 2919.75环比 change [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage changes were given for futures contracts such as IF, IH, and IC. The IF contract had a basis of - 51.63 and a - 1.32% change [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: On June 24, 2025, the T00 contract closed at 109.025 with a 0.00% change, and the T01 contract closed at 109.045 with a 0.02% change [5]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates such as R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were provided along with their daily changes. R001 was at 1.4380% with a - 12.00 BP daily change [5].

一路 "狂飙" 的增长之路 信用债 ETF 能在短时间内取得如此惊人的成绩，背后离不开一系列关键时间节点的推动和政策的大力支持。今年 1 月，证监会印发的《促进资本市场指 数化投资高质量发展行动方案》犹如一颗信号弹，提出 "稳步拓展债券 ETF"，并部署 "稳妥推出基准做市信用债 ETF""研究将信用债 ETF 纳入债券通用 回购质押库" 等重要举措 。政策东风一吹，市场迅速响应。1 月 7 日，首批 8 只信用债 ETF 同日火热发售，1 月 16 日结束募集，1 月 27 日全部敲定上市 时间，在上交所与深交所相继上市交易，整个过程一气呵成，跑出了资本市场的 "加速度"，募集总规模达 218 亿元，为后续的规模增长奠定了坚实基 础。 3 月 21 日晚间，中国证券登记结算公司又连续发文出台三项举措，允许信用债 ETF 试点开展交易所质押式回购、拓宽受信用保护债券回购范围、暂免部 分债券登记结算费用 。其中，允许符合一定条件的信用债 ETF 产品试点开展交易所债券通用质押式回购业务，这一举措满足了市场对信用债 ETF 入库开 展回购交易的需要，大大提高了信用债 ETF 产品的流动性、吸引力和交易活跃度，推动 ...

收益互换具有高度定制化的特征，为投资者提供了灵活便利的风险管理工具。投资者可以通过合理设计 合约期限、规模、资产类别、交易方向等条款，针对性对冲与自身生产经营状况相关的市场风险，实现 精准化的风险管理，在复杂环境中实现风险与收益的平衡。以期货对冲为例，标准化场内期货多以特定 月份的主力合约为主，到期日相对固定且结构单一。在实际风险管理过程中，投资者往往对期限和结构 存在差异化的需求，不确定性因素较大，直接买卖期货自主对冲在移仓换月时由于缺乏专业的对冲经 验，还有可能产生额外的交易费用及对冲成本。收益互换可以为投资者定制合约期限、规模及支付结构 等交易要素，以满足其特定的生产管理需求，从而为企业在不同的市场环境下提供更大的灵活性和便利 性，使其能够更加从容地应对市场波动。 ▍精细化对冲风险，形成多维度风险管控合力 编者按：收益互换作为资本市场中的重要金融工具，为市场参与主体提供了跨市场、跨品种、多方向的 风险管理和资产配置服务。鉴于收益互换具有灵活性强、可定制的特性，很多投资者对它尚未形成全 面、系统的认识。中证报价投教基地推出"收益互换基础知识"专栏，邀请交易商深入浅出地介绍收益互 换的基本概念、应用场景和风 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant surge in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions and changing monetary policies, with gold being viewed as a safe-haven asset amidst uncertainty [2][4][6] - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $3,400 per ounce, with a notable increase of over $60 in a single day due to renewed conflicts in the Middle East [2][4] - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking a historical high [6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the role of gold as a "ballast" in asset allocation, emphasizing its ability to diversify risk and act as a stabilizer during market downturns [9][11] - Gold's unique properties, such as scarcity and independence from government credit, enhance its appeal as a hard currency in a changing global monetary landscape [11][13] - The article outlines various investment methods in gold, with gold ETFs being highlighted as the most accessible and efficient option for ordinary investors [14][19][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of rational investment strategies in gold, particularly in high-price environments, and suggests that gold should be viewed as a long-term asset for wealth preservation [20] - It notes that gold's price performance is often negatively correlated with traditional financial assets, making it a crucial component in mitigating overall portfolio risk [9][11] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and shifts in monetary policy are expected to continue influencing gold prices, reinforcing its status as a valuable asset in uncertain times [4][20]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多资料加入知识星球：水木Alpha 关注公众号：水木纪要 2025年下半年全球市场展望： 沉浮之间 姜越，赵文利 2025年6月3日 美股：下半年或有望测试前高 (标普500约6150)，但市场波动性较大，尤其在7-8月受通胀高企、贸易谈判、财政风险影 响，应谨慎控制风险敞口。 美债：预计收益率将长期维持高位，下半年可能波动至4.2%-4.7%区间，4.5%为关键支撑与阻力位。 美元：短期围绕DXY100上下波动，预计下半年美元指数进一步走软至95附近。 日本市场：日经225指数预计于下半年在36000-40000点区间波动；美元兑日元汇率预计7-8月在140-150波动，后续可能进 一步走低至135-145。 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写。分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 核心要点 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多资料加入知识星球：水木Alpha 关注公众号：水木纪要 全球经济在2025年尚未完全陷入衰退，但整体环境复杂而脆弱，面临着高度不确定性与频繁冲击，经济表现呈现出明显的 弱现实、强冲击与高波动特征 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asset management institutions are shifting towards a diversified asset allocation strategy that includes stocks, bonds, gold, market-neutral strategies, and overseas assets to achieve relatively stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The evolution of China's low-interest-rate environment mirrors that of overseas markets, where initial strategies focused on credit exploration, leverage, and duration have lost profitability due to the narrowing of credit and term spreads [1]. - The current market has transitioned to a new phase centered on diversified asset allocation, which, despite its theoretical effectiveness, is now favored over fixed-income strategies that were previously attractive due to low volatility and high Sharpe ratios [1]. Group 2: Optimal Asset Allocation Criteria - An ideal diversified asset allocation strategy must meet three key conditions: low correlation between assets (below 0.2), the ability to generate returns without relying on market price fluctuations, and immunity to macroeconomic volatility [2]. - Four to five asset classes that meet these criteria include stocks, bonds, commodities represented by gold, market-neutral strategies (quantitative and macro hedging), and overseas assets [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Future Outlook - Asset management institutions need to establish defensive mechanisms to address extreme tail risks, focusing on two dimensions: using derivatives to hedge against interest rate risks and preventing global liquidity tightening or sudden inflation shocks [2]. - In the current low-interest, low-inflation environment, a risk parity strategy between stocks and bonds may become the optimal choice in the next 1-2 years, as the bond market still has downward potential while the stock market is at a valuation bottom with significant upside potential as the economy recovers [2].

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing volatility due to ongoing policy disturbances and structural changes, with a focus on the relationship between transformation and balance, as well as risk and return [1][2]. Policy Environment - A series of incremental policies have been introduced to stabilize market expectations and boost investor confidence, covering fiscal, financial, consumption, and investment areas [2][3]. - Since September 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 20%, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [2]. Market Dynamics - The current macro environment is favorable for both equity and bond markets, with ongoing policy support and a positive economic structural transition [3][4]. - Investors are encouraged to consider "fixed income plus" products, which combine stable fixed income assets with some equity exposure to enhance returns [3][5]. Investment Strategies - For bond funds, the overall performance has been weaker compared to previous years, necessitating new strategies to enhance fund returns [5][6]. - Investors should adjust their portfolios based on their risk tolerance, with options ranging from cash-like assets for low-risk tolerance to "fixed income plus" products for moderate risk tolerance [6][7]. Fund Selection - Different types of fixed income funds exist, including pure bond funds categorized by duration and credit quality, which exhibit varying levels of volatility [7][8]. - Investors should prioritize funds with a history of stable performance and consider factors such as lock-up periods and fees when selecting products [8].

欧元复兴之路 不少业内人士对欧元的未来信心满满。有知情人士预测，欧元有望在本十年末夺回因 2011 年债务危机 丢失的货币储备份额，重回 25% 的高位。瑞银的 Max Castelli 透露，"解放日" 后，储备管理机构对美 元的避险地位产生了前所未有的质疑。OMFIF 的调查也显示，到 2035 年，美元在全球外汇储备中的平 均份额虽仍居首，但会从 58% 降至 52%，而欧元十年后的份额预计达到 22%。 专家们指出，若欧洲能扩大债券储备规模、整合资本市场，欧元吸引外汇储备的能力将大大增强。目 前，欧洲债券市场规模远低于美国国债市场，这限制了欧元在国际储备中的吸引力。如果欧洲能够加强 各国之间的财政协调，发行更多高质量的欧洲债券，将有助于提升欧元的国际地位。此外，整合资本市 场可以提高欧洲金融市场的效率和稳定性，吸引更多国际资本流入。汇丰银行直言，欧元是当下替代美 元、改变外汇储备格局的最佳选择，若相关问题得以解决，2 - 3 年内欧元全球储备份额达到 25% 并非 天方夜谭。如今，欧洲减少对美依赖、推进资本市场整合等动作不断，也为欧元的崛起增添了助力。欧 盟正在加强内部防务合作，通过更多欧盟联合借款来 ...