Group 1 - The latest US CPI data supports the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's adjustment to its Federal Reserve policy forecast [1] - Following the recent non-farm payroll data release, the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has increased its interest rate cut expectations for 2026 [1] - The bank now anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in both the first and second quarters of 2026 [1]

英国10年期国债收益率上涨1个基点至4.49%；2年期收益率上涨3个基点至3.74%。 货币市场削减降息预期，目前定价显示到2026年底将再降息39个基点，而周三预期为41个基点。 责任编辑：刘明亮 英镑兑美元抹去跌幅，英债价格下跌。此前英国央行如预期将利率下调25个基点至3.75%，并表示未来 是否降息将更难抉择。 英镑/美元上涨0.1%，报1.3387。 英镑兑美元抹去跌幅，英债价格下跌。此前英国央行如预期将利率下调25个基点至3.75%，并表示未来 是否降息将更难抉择。 英镑/美元上涨0.1%，报1.3387。 英国10年期国债收益率上涨1个基点至4.49%；2年期收益率上涨3个基点至3.74%。 货币市场削减降息预期，目前定价显示到2026年底将再降息39个基点，而周三预期为41个基点。 责任编辑：刘明亮 ...

Group 1 - The CSI A500 index closed down 0.6%, while the CSI A100 and A50 indices both fell by 0.7% [1] - The A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) had a total trading volume of 5.4 billion yuan, with net subscriptions exceeding 1 million units, following two consecutive trading days of net inflows totaling over 1 billion yuan [1] - Guotai Junan Securities stated that fluctuations in financial market expectations will not alter the trends in the real economy, indicating a clearer direction for future investments and interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index consists of 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, covering 91 out of 93 sub-industries [3] - The CSI A100 index includes 100 representative securities with large market capitalization and liquidity, covering 46 sub-industries, reflecting the overall performance of core leading listed companies [3] - The CSI A50 index is composed of the 50 largest stocks by market capitalization from various industries, with a balanced distribution across 50 sub-industries, highlighting a large-cap style [3]

摩根大通方面未对此事置评，也未披露其国债投资组合的期限结构，以及通过利率互换合约管理风险的 具体规模。 （原标题：降息预期拉满，摩根大通从美联储抽走3500亿美元买美债） 【文/羽扇观金工作室】 据英国《金融时报》当地时间12月17日报道，自2023年以来，摩根大通已从其美联储账户中撤出近3500 亿美元现金，并将其中大部分投入美国国债，以试图对冲降息可能带来的利润侵蚀风险，为利率下行周 期提前布局。 行业数据追踪机构BankRegData数据显示，资产规模超4万亿美元的摩根大通，已将其在美联储的账户 余额从2023年末的4090亿美元，大幅削减至今年第三季度的630亿美元。 同期，摩根大通的美国国债持有量从2310亿美元增至4500亿美元，这一操作可使其在美联储降息预期下 提前锁定较高收益率，为后续利率下行做好准备。 这一资金转移反映出，作为美国最大的银行，摩根大通正为一段轻松盈利时期的终结做准备。在此前的 盈利期内，银行将现金存入美联储即可获得利息，同时却只需向多数储户支付近乎为零的利息。 摩根大通美联储现金储备与持有美国国债走势图 《金融时报》 2022年至2023年初，美联储将其基准联邦基金利率目标区 ...

【文/羽扇观金工作室】 据英国《金融时报》当地时间12月17日报道，自2023年以来，摩根大通已从其美联储账户中撤出近3500亿美元现金，并将其中大部分投入美国国债， 以试图对冲降息可能带来的利润侵蚀风险，为利率下行周期提前布局。 行业数据追踪机构BankRegData数据显示，资产规模超4万亿美元的摩根大通，已将其在美联储的账户余额从2023年末的4090亿美元，大幅削减至今年 第三季度的630亿美元。 同期，摩根大通的美国国债持有量从2310亿美元增至4500亿美元，这一操作可使其在美联储降息预期下提前锁定较高收益率，为后续利率下行做好准 备。 这一资金转移反映出，作为美国最大的银行，摩根大通正为一段轻松盈利时期的终结做准备。在此前的盈利期内，银行将现金存入美联储即可获得利 息，同时却只需向多数储户支付近乎为零的利息。 2022年至2023年初，美联储将其基准联邦基金利率目标区间从接近零的水平迅速上调至5%以上。随后，美联储于2024年末开始下调这一目标区间，并 已暗示可能进一步降息。本月，美联储已将利率降至三年来的最低水平。 "摩根大通将美联储账户资金转向国债的意图十分明确，"BankRegData创始 ...

（原标题：?黄金与铂金携手冲高! 降息预期+地缘政治风险共振 资金蜂拥至贵金属） "实际收益率的变动方向变得更具支撑性，"来自澳大利亚Pepperstone Group Ltd.的策略师Dilin Wu表 示。"再叠加持续的地缘政治不确定性以及年末市场流动性更稀薄，黄金与铂金这类贵金属正在重新获 得其作为投资组合稳定器的重要角色。" 智通财经APP获悉，随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金 现货价格在历史最高位附近持稳。近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于 2008年以来的最高价位水平——距离历史最高位相差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈 涨势有望推动铂金在长达17年后创下历史新高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流 动性宽松预期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025 年全球铂金市场将迎来连续三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线 性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass all show a "rebound" trend; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 shows an "oscillation" trend [2] - **Financial Sector**: CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury, and 5 - year Treasury show an "oscillation" trend; CSI 500, CSI 1000 show a "rebound" trend; 10 - year Treasury is in "consolidation"; gold and silver show an "oscillation - strong" trend [4] - **Light Industry**: Logs show "bottom - oscillation"; pulp shows "oscillation"; double - offset paper shows "weak - oscillation" [5] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil show a "rebound" trend; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 show an "oscillation - bearish" trend [6] - **Agricultural Products**: Pigs show a "strong" trend; rubber shows an "oscillation" trend [8] - **Polyester**: PX, PTA, and MEG show an "oscillation" trend; PR and PF are in a "wait - and - see" state [9] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation". The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative factor for raw materials. For coal coke, short - term factors such as capacity review and safety inspection boost the market, but the change in export policy may have a negative impact. The overall black sector rebounds due to short - term fundamental improvement and policy support [2] - **Financial Sector**: The market shows short - term oscillation and consolidation, with a continued medium - term upward trend. The high - tech industry continues to grow. The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the Fed's interest - rate policy affect its price [4] - **Light Industry**: The log market is in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom. The pulp market is affected by cost and demand factors, and the price may return to an oscillatory state after the digestion of positive factors. The double - offset paper market is under supply pressure and is expected to show weak oscillation [5] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oil market rebounds in the short term due to the support of crude oil prices, but the demand outlook is uncertain. The meal market is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [6] - **Agricultural Products**: The pig market may see a slight increase in prices in the future due to factors such as increased consumption and stable supply. The rubber market is affected by supply and demand factors, with prices expected to oscillate [8] - **Polyester**: The polyester market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand. The prices of various products are expected to show oscillatory or wait - and - see trends [9] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current iron - water production is decreasing, steel - mill maintenance expectations are increasing, and real - world demand is weak. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds due to restocking and macro - sentiment are opportunities to enter short positions [2] - **Coal Coke**: Capacity review, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies boost market sentiment, but the change in export policy may lead to a shift in market expectations from supply - side positives to demand - side negatives [2] - **Rolled Steel and Glass**: The government's emphasis on expanding domestic demand and short - term improvement in the steel fundamentals boost the black sector. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations. Glass rebounds due to factors such as price decline, macro - sentiment fermentation, and production - line cold - repair [2] 3.2 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The market is expected to maintain short - term oscillation and a medium - term upward trend [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market shows a slight rebound. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4] - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the Fed's interest - rate policy support its price in the medium and long term [4][5] 3.3 Light Industry - **Logs**: Last week, the average daily port shipment of logs decreased, and the import volume from New Zealand and China decreased. This week, the expected arrival volume increased significantly. The spot - market price is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot - market price of pulp is differentiated, and the increase in external - market prices strengthens cost support. However, due to the low profitability of the paper industry and high inventory pressure, demand is weak, and the price may return to an oscillatory state [5] - **Double - Offset Paper**: The spot - market price is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The demand from publication orders provides support, but social - order demand is average, and the price is expected to show weak oscillation [5] 3.4 Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: The U.S. soybean crushing is at a high level, and the export of Malaysian palm oil is weak with high inventory. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the consumption recovery is weak. The oil price rebounds in the short term due to the support of crude oil prices [6] - **Meals**: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose, and the market has a strong expectation of a high yield of South American soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is expected to show an oscillatory - bearish trend [6] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The average trading weight of pigs decreases slightly, and the demand for pork increases due to the drop in temperature. The slaughter - enterprise settlement price may increase, and the market supply is stable. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening decreases, while that of piglet fattening increases [8] - **Rubber**: The rubber production in domestic and foreign regions is affected by weather conditions. The demand side shows an increase in production - capacity utilization, but the inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. The price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.6 Polyester - **PX**: The supply of PX is at a high level, and the downstream polyester load decreases. The PX price is affected by oil prices [9] - **PTA**: The cost of PTA fluctuates due to oil - price changes, and the short - term supply - demand situation improves, but the long - term situation may deteriorate [9] - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the near - month situation improves due to supply reduction. The price oscillates in the short term [9] - **PR and PF**: PR has strong raw - material support but weak downstream demand; PF has low inventory and is expected to have a warm price adjustment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices testing resistance levels around 4350 and 4380, while silver has reached a historical high of 66.88 [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently under pressure but are expected to test the resistance levels of 4350 and 4380 in the short term [1][4]. - A potential stabilization at 4350 could lead to further upward movement towards 4380, indicating a bullish sentiment [1]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the delayed U.S. November CPI, which could influence inflation expectations and interest rate forecasts [1]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver has surpassed the 66 mark, achieving a new historical high of 66.88, indicating strong bullish momentum [1]. - The current support level for silver is around 4320, with potential buying opportunities if prices do not break below this level [1][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The market is cautious about the potential impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, which could lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - A confirmation of cooling inflation from CPI and PCE data could further elevate expectations for interest rate cuts [1]. - The upcoming speeches from key figures, such as Trump, and the Bank of Japan's decisions are also critical events to watch in the near term [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, mostly in a low - volatility range with limited trading value. Key factors include clear policy support, enhanced independent exchange - rate fluctuations, and a resonance of internal and external environments. However, potential risks such as high long - position inventories of USD/HKD and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes should be noted [3]. - The entry of the national team only boosts the market sentiment in the short term. The stock index is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and the small and medium - cap stock indexes may face pressure [4]. - For the bond market, it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, while short - term long positions can consider taking profits [5]. - In the container shipping European route, there is a bull - bear mix. The price is expected to be supported in January due to shipping companies' price - holding intentions, but factors such as weak economic data, sufficient shipping capacity, and the expected resumption of Red Sea routes may bring pressure [6]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bullish foundation for platinum remains. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of adjustment due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. For gold and silver, be cautious about short - term callbacks, and maintain a long - term bullish view. For copper, the market sentiment is high, but the price increase did not meet expectations. For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. For zinc, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. For nickel and stainless steel, they had a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation. For tin, it is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. For lithium carbonate, the short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. For industrial silicon, it is in a supply - demand weak situation, and for polysilicon, the trading logic is mainly technical [9][11][13][16][19][20][22][23][24][26]. - For steel products, the price is expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is likely between 3000 - 3400. For iron ore, the downward space is expected to be limited. For coking coal and coke, if the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, the market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and there may be a short - term rebound [30][31][32][33][34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the short - term strategy is mainly to wait and see. For crude oil, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation may drive up short - term oil prices. For LPG, the near - term is still supported. For PTA - PX, there is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. For MEG - bottle chips, the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. For methanol, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. For PP, the cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. For PE, the spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. For pure benzene - styrene, pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. For asphalt, if the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. For rubber, both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. For urea, the 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. For soda ash, it is waiting for unexpected supply changes. For glass, the near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. For caustic soda, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For logs, the current price has limited trading value. For propylene, it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [38][40][42][44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][65][67][68][70][71][72][75][76][78][79][80]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. For oils, the short - term trend is wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information. For cotton, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, paying attention to downstream orders and hedging pressure. For sugar, the price will remain weak. For apples, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips. For red dates, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in December, the US employment market cooled, and the UK's CPI decline increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut. Domestically, policies are "seeking progress while maintaining stability," and in November, industrial production was resilient but domestic demand was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Key information includes China's fiscal revenue growth, the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, and the UK's CPI decline. The RMB is expected to be moderately strong in the short term, with potential risks [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose collectively in the previous trading day. The entry of the national team boosted market sentiment, but the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and small and medium - cap indexes may face pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose on Wednesday. The market sentiment improved, and it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can consider taking profits [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The night - session prices of platinum and palladium rose to new highs this year. The price is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy, supply - demand fundamentals, and EU policies. In the long term, the bullish foundation for platinum remains, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices rose. Silver shows a long - squeeze phenomenon. The short - term focus is on callback risks, and the long - term view is bullish [11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded. The market sentiment was high, but the increase did not meet expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 93500 - 94000, and downstream enterprises can consider buying futures on dips for hedging [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable, alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices had support at the bottom and rebounded slightly at night. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, and there may be entry opportunities [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The nickel ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is affected by export regulations. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices were strong. It is recommended to enter the market on dips, and the short - term view is not to short [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose sharply. The short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. Attention should be paid to supply shocks and demand declines [22][23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, and polysilicon's trading logic is mainly technical. The long - term price of industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are ineffective [24][26]. - **Lead**: Lead prices were weakly volatile. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500, with strong support around 16500 [27]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices rebounded slightly but faced pressure above. After the central economic work conference, the pricing of the steel market returned to fundamentals. Supply may slow down the reduction, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is in a de - stocking trend. The price is expected to fluctuate [28][30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. After macro events, the trading logic returned to fundamentals. Supply is relatively restrained, demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is supported by coking coal [32]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal price may be affected by winter restocking, and the coke price may continue to decline. If the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking [33][34]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. Supply is likely to continue to decline, demand is expected to decrease, and inventory is at a high level. There may be a short - term rebound [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices fluctuated, and offset paper prices were weakly volatile. The Crofton pulp mill's shutdown was postponed, and the pulp port inventory is still high. The short - term strategy for both is to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US - Venezuela tension may drive up short - term oil prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [42][43][44]. - **LPG**: The near - term is still supported. The supply increased slightly, demand remained stable, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [45][46]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. PX supply is expected to be high, PTA supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation in December, and the polyester demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [47][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. Supply has shown initial signs of support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [50][52]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. Factors such as commodity trends and unloading problems have affected the price, and the unloading problem will be resolved in the future [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. Supply may be relieved in January, and demand has some support [55][57]. - **PE**: The spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing, especially in the agricultural film sector [58][60]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply of pure benzene is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the demand is stable [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: If the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the US - Venezuela situation may affect the supply of heavy oil [62]. - **Rubber**: Both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Natural rubber is affected by supply - side disturbances and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental improvement, and the upward space is restricted [63][65][67]. - **Urea**: The 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. High supply pressures the price, but export policies relieve the pressure, and the inventory is in a de - stocking trend [68][70]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for unexpected supply changes, glass's near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. Caustic soda prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure and weakening demand [71][72][75]. - **Logs**: The current price has limited trading value. It is in a position - shifting market, with the inventory decreasing and the spot price falling [76][78]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a shock pattern. The supply is relatively loose, demand is stable, and it is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. The rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [81][82]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is wide - range shock. Palm oil is affected by supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by global supply. Attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information [82][83]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The downstream shows resilience, but short - term pressure exists. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and hedging pressure [84]. - **Sugar**: The price will remain weak. Global sugar production and trade data affect the price, such as India's high production and Brazil's high exports [85][86]. - **Apples**: The strategy is mainly to buy on dips. Consumption is sluggish, and inventory is slowly decreasing [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term downward space may be limited. New - season production is slightly reduced, and new - product supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [89].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend with a structural supply - demand gap in 2026, and the idea is to buy on dips, with a price range of 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars in December [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2]. - Zinc prices may not fall deeply due to a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - sided basis in the short term, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [5]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [8]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals are generally weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies considering the Indonesian policy's price - supporting motivation [12]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [16]. - Tin prices have shown marginal weakening signs in the short term, with potential large fluctuations in case of a macro - level systemic correction. It can be a long - term long - allocation in the first half of 2026, but attention should be paid to correction risks [19]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger willingness to hold goods [24]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell on Friday night. Global inventory distribution is uneven, and low - inventory areas in the US may face more pressure. In China, there is a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival [1]. - **Outlook**: With the continuous loose overseas liquidity, the idea is to buy on dips, and the price in December is expected to be in the range of 10,800 - 12,000 US dollars [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 120 yuan. The domestic alumina price decreased by 2 yuan, and the import price remained unchanged. The LME aluminum inventory was stable, and the cancelled warrants increased by 6,675 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The expectation of interest rate cuts affected the market, and terminal demand was lower than expected. Aluminum prices showed two significant corrections this week. Short - term apparent demand is good, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium decreased from 163 US dollars to 90.6 US dollars. The domestic zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 2,150 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC is declining rapidly. The domestic zinc ore supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was put into production, and multiple smelters will have maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average, but US zinc imports have increased recently [5]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see on a single - sided basis in the short term. Pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged. The Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 250 yuan, and the Jinchuan premium increased by 650 yuan. The domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has a price - supporting motivation [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The price of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill's production is at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a price - supporting motivation [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [12]. Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME lead inventory decreased by 2,875, and the cancelled warrants decreased by 1,375 [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The primary lead production is at a high level, and the secondary lead production has recovered. The battery demand is expected to weaken, but downstream restocking provides support [16]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [16]. Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The domestic inventory increased by about 600 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 375 tons [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin ore processing fee is at a low level. Overseas production recovery is slow, but high prices stimulate inventory exports. Demand is mainly rigid, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened [19]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is a risk of excessive supply growth, and the fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. In the medium - to - long term, demand determines the upside space, but attention should be paid to correction risks in 2026 [19]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of 421 - grade Yunnan, Sichuan, 553 - grade East China, and Tianjin decreased by 105 yuan, and the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and some silicon plants in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang will have periodic maintenance. The supply and demand in December are expected to be balanced [22]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long term [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 1,200 yuan and 1,100 yuan respectively. The basis of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 6,820 yuan and increased by 1,200 yuan respectively. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 350 [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: Ningde's resumption of production is less than expected. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the upstream inventory is being depleted. Downstream demand is strong at low prices but weakens at high prices [24]. - **Outlook**: The short - term pattern is one of strong supply and demand. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger willingness to hold goods [24].