Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $110,900, with a market capitalization exceeding $2.15 trillion, positioning it among the top five global assets, but this surge led to significant liquidations and losses for investors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Over 120,000 investors were liquidated within 24 hours, with total liquidation amounting to $452 million, where long positions accounted for $190 million (42%) and short positions for $260 million (58%) [2][3]. - The rapid price increase was driven by multiple factors, including clearer regulatory frameworks from the SEC, easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, and rising demand for Bitcoin as an alternative asset amid economic uncertainties [4][6]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Many investors blindly chased the price after it surpassed $100,000, using high leverage, which led to forced liquidations when Bitcoin's price fell back to $109,500 [5][6]. - The volatility prompted some investors to reassess their risk exposure, leading to reduced leverage or market exits, as evidenced by increased Bitcoin inflows to exchanges and record issuance of Tether (USDT) [6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Implications - The significant liquidation events may prompt regulatory bodies like the SEC to enhance oversight of cryptocurrency derivatives markets, potentially increasing margin requirements and limiting leverage [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price increase is heavily reliant on institutional buying, and any slowdown in this buying could trigger a market correction [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent surge, the market remains fraught with uncertainties, with predictions ranging from a potential rise to $120,000 in Q2 2025 to concerns about increased correlation with traditional financial markets, which could lead to downward pressure in case of economic downturns [8][9].

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7200-7800 | 29.94% | 86.2% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7400-750 0 | | 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若糖价上涨还可以锁定现 ...

| 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12800-13700 | 0.1232 | 0.293 | source： 南华研究 棉花风险管理策略建议 棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/5/22 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 现货 敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入 场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存 情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 13600- 13800 | | 库存 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下 | 多 | 生产成本 | | | | | | 管理 | 跌 | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉价上 | | | | 200-25 | | | | | 涨还可以锁定现货卖出 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2025 - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract today added 335 lots, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week's quotes. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 750 - 820 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.8% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 790 yuan/m³ to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, buy put options (lg2507P800) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 9.5 - 14 yuan to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options (lg2507C850) at an entry range of 5.5 - 7.5 yuan to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 750 - 800 yuan/m³ to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (lg2507P750) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5.5 - 12 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot log purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The main contract added 335 lots today, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts was -23.8%, and China's total coniferous log imports were 2.185 million m³, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, with a larger decline than the previous month and a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%. Due to the decline in foreign shipping profits in April and May, the contract signing volume decreased, and the reduction in arrivals will be reflected in June. Port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. The average daily port outbound volume was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price difference between wood squares and logs in Rizhao is trending wider, and downstream profits are rising. Currently, the basis of almost all log specifications is positive, but there is some market controversy about the deviation of the size difference. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent supply reduction and subsequent delivery games. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, spot price increases after conversion (108%), main contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and converted basis for different specifications of logs in Rizhao and Taicang ports on May 22, 2025 [3][6]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: In April 2025, radiation pine imports were 1.65 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, China's port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Shandong's port inventory was 1,899,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Jiangsu's port inventory was 1,118,568 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 24,968 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 30.8%. - **Demand**: As of May 16, 2025, the average daily port outbound volume of logs was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Shandong's average daily outbound volume was 32,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Jiangsu's average daily outbound volume was 22,900 m³, a week - on - week increase of 700 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 28.7%. - **Profit**: As of May 23, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was -48 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/m³, and the import profit of spruce was -109 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/m³. - **Main Spot**: On May 22, 2025, the spot prices of 3.9 medium (3.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) logs in Taicang Port, 5.9 medium (5.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, and 6 medium (5.8A) logs in Taicang Port were 750 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, and 780 yuan/m³ respectively, with no price changes on the day and year - on - year decreases of 8.5%, 4.9%, 8.3%, and 6.0% respectively [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent reduction in arrivals. Macroeconomic policies may play a role [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand may be weaker than expected, and the goods movement is slow. The subsequent shipping volume may recover [5].

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年5月22日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证书：Z0021819 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 压力位65000 | 25.2% | 30.0% | source： 南华研究 据Mysteel消息，某锂盐厂预计停产检修4个月，预计每月影响锂盐月产量约1500吨。 解读：市场库存依然高位，此厂停产对市场供给过剩格局影响不大。 【利多解读】 【利空解读】 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级 （满分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 公司产品库存偏 高，库存有减值风 | 为了防止库存减值，可以根据企业的库存情况， 做空碳酸锂期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 本 | ...

戴鸿绪（投资咨询证书：Z0021819 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 8500强阻力位 | 24.6% | 75.4% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 34000-38000宽幅震荡 | 29.91% | 89% | source： 南华研究 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级 （满分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空工 业硅/多晶硅期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | SI2507/PS2507 | 卖出 | 60% | 3 | | | 产品库存偏高，有存 | | | | | | | 管理 | 货减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | ...

中国证监会期货监管司副司长王颖表示，在新时代新征程下，期货市场必须继续围绕加强市场监管、丰 富产品矩阵、优化服务质量、扩大对外开放等方面，深化自身功能发挥，与产业形成良性循环机制，更 好应对外部环境的不确定性，为稳定宏观经济大盘发挥更大作用。 "目前，上海正进一步强化金融市场功能，支持上期所、中金所等在沪金融市场建设世界一流交易所， 加快建设人民币金融资产配置和风险管理中心，更好服务国家战略、维护国家安全。"上海市委金融办 常务副主任周小全说。 健全适配新质生产力需求的产品体系。 丰富产品矩阵，扩大对外开放，推动中长期资金入市……5月22日，在2025上海衍生品市场论坛上，监 管部门释放了更多未来期货市场的发展计划。 展望期货和衍生品市场发展，对外经济贸易大学国际经贸学院研究员李正强认为，应加快产品体系完善 步伐，加大开放与国际布局，壮大中介机构力量，持续改善企业套期保值交易的制度环境等。 展望中国期货和衍生品市场 经过30多年的发展，我国期货市场呈现多元开放的市场状态，未来又将呈现哪些新的趋势？ 丰富产品矩阵，扩大对外开放 去年国务院办公厅转发证监会等部门《关于加强监管防范风险促进期货市场高质量发展的意见》 ...

Core Insights - The CIBF2025 battery exhibition in Shenzhen highlighted the growing importance of lithium carbonate futures in the lithium battery industry, with companies increasingly focusing on risk management and cost control due to declining lithium prices [1][2][3] Industry Trends - The CIBF2025 battery exhibition attracted over 400,000 attendees, setting a new industry record, but many familiar companies were absent due to the current downtrend in lithium carbonate prices [2] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 63,000 yuan per ton as of May 21, with expectations of further price declines [2] Company Strategies - Companies are actively forming futures teams to manage risks associated with falling lithium prices, utilizing futures for risk management and inventory optimization [3][4] - There is a notable recruitment trend for professionals skilled in futures trading, with several leading lithium manufacturers expanding their futures teams [3][5] Risk Management - The establishment of internal futures teams is seen as essential for companies to effectively manage risks and protect sensitive business information [6][7] - A well-structured futures department can enhance decision-making and operational efficiency, tailored to the specific needs of each company [8][7] Future Outlook - The participation rate of non-financial A-share listed companies in hedging activities has increased to 28.6% in 2024, indicating a growing trend towards risk management in the industry [5]

清晨的辽宁大连北良港，一列满载玉米的火车驶入交割库，随着传送带的轰鸣声，成吨的玉米被精准分 装入库。千里之外的山西介休焦煤交割库，起重机正将散装焦煤倾倒进一辆辆敞口货车的车厢。这些忙 碌的场景，勾勒出大商所交割库的日常图景。 交割库不仅是商品流通的枢纽，更是实体产业转型升级的风向标。期货日报记者了解到，多年来大商所 坚持"服务面向实体经济，创新紧跟市场需求"的工作理念，精准捕捉产业变革脉搏，"一品一策"动态优 化交割库布局，构建起覆盖主产区、主销区与贸易枢纽的立体网络。从东北粮仓到山西煤海，从长三角 化工集群到北方新兴炼化基地，交割库布局的每一次调整都折射出中国产业结构的深刻变迁，也彰显了 大商所"因时而动、因势而新"的服务理念。 大商所对玉米期货的精心维护获得了产业高度认可。据相关统计，目前全国100%的大型玉米贸易企 业、85%的饲料养殖前20强企业、70%的深加工前20强企业均通过玉米期货管理价格风险。 从政策市到市场化 玉米交割布局调整织密南北协同网络 玉米产业的变革，是政策与市场交织的缩影。随着2004年国家退出保护价收购政策，玉米市场化程度持 续提升。2008年受金融危机影响，国内外玉米价格波动剧 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital is focusing on high dividend and technology growth sectors, with a total of 7,677 research activities conducted on A-share listed companies as of May 21 this year, indicating a strategic shift towards stable cash flow and growth potential [1][2]. Group 1: Research Activities - A total of 180 insurance institutions conducted 7,677 research activities on 1,292 A-share listed companies, showing a decrease in frequency compared to the same period last year [2]. - Among insurance asset management institutions, Taikang Asset Management and Huatai Asset Management led with 428 and 317 research activities, respectively [2]. - Pension insurance companies were the most active in research, with the top five being Ping An Pension Insurance, Changjiang Pension Insurance, China Life Pension Insurance, Taiping Pension Insurance, and China People's Pension Insurance [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Decrease in Research Frequency - The decline in research frequency is attributed to three main factors: focus on high dividend stocks in a low-interest environment, more precise investment strategies due to regulatory clarity, and established market consensus on certain technology growth sectors [3]. - Despite the decrease in research frequency, the allocation of stocks by insurance companies has increased, with the proportion of funds allocated to stocks rising to 7.56% for property insurance companies and 8.43% for life insurance companies, up by 1.2 and 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [3]. Group 3: Investment Focus - The primary focus of insurance capital research includes high dividend sectors and technology growth sectors, such as electronic components, industrial machinery, electrical components and equipment, integrated circuits, medical equipment, and regional banks [4]. - Over 500 of the researched companies are listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board or the Growth Enterprise Market, accounting for nearly 40% of the total [4]. - The core characteristics of the sectors being focused on are the stable cash flow from high dividend assets and the growth potential of high-tech assets, which are supported by government policies [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Insurance capital is expected to continue optimizing a "barbell" asset allocation strategy, balancing high dividend assets for stable returns with investments in technology innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and health care sectors [5]. - The use of innovative tools such as long-term equity investments and REITs will be emphasized to enhance portfolio structure while strengthening ESG risk management [5]. - The industry is encouraged to maintain a long-term investment philosophy and actively seek sustainable investment opportunities [5].