过去一周，美国股市的表现再次刷新了市场的预期。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数双双创下历史新高， 纳指更是在八个交易日中六次收盘破纪录。这一切都发生在特朗普政府宣布新一轮广泛关税、并被市场 认为或将冲击全球贸易秩序之后。那么，问题来了：在如此大的政策不确定性背景下，美股为何不跌反 涨，甚至频创新高？ 一个关键解释是，美国消费者的韧性仍在，且短期内没有受到关税成本的直接冲击。本周公布的一系列 数据与企业财报印证了这一点——百事可乐等消费巨头依然交出了亮眼的预期，消费动能未减。特别是 在饮料、航空等本被认为更容易受宏观环境压制的行业中，企业竟普遍展现出信心，这让市场对经济的 内生动能产生了新判断。 另一个支撑点是科技与工业的双重强势。这两个板块对利率敏感，同时也受益于结构性增长预期。即便 美联储尚未明确降息时间表，但通胀数据接近目标，劳动力市场走软的迹象已经让部分投资者押注美联 储可能提前转向。在此背景下，芯片制造商等高成长性企业的估值获得修复空间。资金重新涌入半导体 与软件等板块，助推了指数上涨。 Vatee外汇认为这些只是表层现象。更深层的问题在于，市场是否低估了关税政策的中长期影响？目前 看来，投资者普遍将关税 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market will maintain a short - term tug - of - war, with the core contradiction being the game between the inflation rhythm pushed up by tariffs and the Fed's policy expectations. Trump's tariff increases have initially raised business costs. If the tariff scope expands or the August 1 negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience shown in June CPI and retail data may make the Fed maintain a wait - and - see attitude, limiting the upside of gold prices. The market focuses on the September rate - cut expectation, but if real interest rates do not fall as expected, gold prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: At the beginning of the week, Trump's 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico spurred safe - haven buying, but the market's expectation of negotiation easing diluted the increase. US June CPI core commodity inflation showed an initial rise, but overall CPI was lower than expected. The stagnant PPI growth in June led to a mid - week rebound. Near the weekend, strong retail sales boosted the dollar and suppressed gold, but Trump's 25% tariff on Japan reignited safe - haven demand. Gold prices remained high - level volatile. Central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows provided long - term support, while CFTC speculative net - long position reduction indicated short - term profit - taking pressure. Silver was relatively firm due to strong semiconductor demand but limited by weakening photovoltaic demand [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The precious metals market will remain in a short - term tug - of - war. If tariffs expand or the negotiation fails, it may accelerate inflation and boost gold. However, the US economic resilience may make the Fed wait and see, limiting gold's upside. The market focuses on the September rate - cut, but if real interest rates do not fall, gold may continue to fluctuate. Long - term support for gold remains valid [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, pay attention to the correction risk. For the next week, the SHFE gold 2510 contract is expected to trade between 750 - 800 yuan/gram, the SHFE silver 2510 contract between 9000 - 9300 yuan/kg. For overseas markets, COMEX gold futures are expected to trade between 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures between 38 - 39 US dollars/ounce [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: Gold prices continued to fluctuate and ended the week higher, silver prices rose. There was a divergence between domestic and overseas markets. As of July 18, 2025, COMEX silver was at 38.555 US dollars/ounce, down 1.03% week - on - week; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9273 yuan/kg, up 2.84% week - on - week. COMEX gold was at 3344.2 US dollars/ounce, down 0.59% week - on - week; SHFE gold 2510 contract was at 777.02 yuan/gram, up 0.49% week - on - week [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 17, 2025, the SLV silver ETF holdings were 14695 tons, down 1.3% week - on - week; the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 948.50 tons, basically unchanged from the previous week [15]. - **COMEX Net Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 443144 contracts, up 1.25% week - on - week, and net positions were 202968 contracts, up 0.49% week - on - week. COMEX silver total positions were 162803 contracts, down 0.47% week - on - week, and net positions were 58521 contracts, down 7.70% week - on - week [21]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 261685 contracts, up 1.2% week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 58717 contracts, up 3.6% week - on - week [27]. - **Basis**: As of July 17, 2025, the gold basis was - 5.36 yuan/gram, down 25.82% week - on - week; the silver basis was - 43 yuan/kg, down 258.33% week - on - week [30]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37143884.29 ounces, up 0.99% week - on - week; SHFE gold inventory was 24585 kg, up 14.58% week - on - week. COMEX silver inventory was 496635874 ounces, down 0.30% week - on - week; SHFE silver inventory was 1303593 kg, down 2.70% week - on - week [35]. 3.3 Industrial Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46% month - on - month to 273741.39 kg, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% month - on - month to 136237148 kg. As of June 2025, due to soaring semiconductor silver demand, integrated circuit production increased by 15.80% year - on - year to 4506000 pieces [41][45]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. Total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Gold Industry**: Gold prices were mainly volatile. As of July 17, 2025, the China Gold recycling price was 769.9 yuan/gram, down 0.21% week - on - week. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu were basically stable [59]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93% quarter - on - quarter; gold jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47% quarter - on - quarter; total gold demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield continued to rebound due to strong CPI inflation and retail data. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility increased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio declined slightly. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate rose. In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, the eighth consecutive month of increase [67][72][76][80].

【冠通研究】 现货升水走强 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 18 日 【策略分析】 今日铜低开高走日内震荡偏强，美联储独立性受挑战，联储理事沃勒表示美联储应 在七月会议上将利率下调 25 个基点，美元指数下行。供给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日，现货粗炼费为-43.23 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.32 美分/磅。铜冶炼厂加工费虽 目前依然处于负值，但已止跌回稳，同时铜精矿库存本期回升，铜供应偏激的预期或将 有所改善，232 铜关税落地后，国内铜库存预计累库，若关税落地后海上未能运往美国 货物，或将回流至出口港口，前期抢跑的隐性库存或显性化，铜供应端偏紧预期目前已 缓解。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。6 月份线缆开工率下降，空调目前已过产销峰值，目前已进入淡 季阶段，下游整体的采购情绪疲弱，交投情绪冷淡，冰箱产销数据亮眼。整体来看，美 联储争议引发美指的下跌，提振有色行情，国内上期所铜库存本周去化，现货升水走 强，预计短期沪铜偏强震荡，需关注关税预期及美联储议息情况。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具 ...

7月16日晚，全球市场经历了一场意外的惊慌。在稍早前的一次讲话中，一位白宫官员透露，美国总统特朗普可能即将解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务。此 外，有报道称，特朗普已开始撰写一封解雇鲍威尔的信函。消息传出后，美股三大指数瞬间下跌，黄金价格则迅速上涨，触及每盎司3377美元，盘中一度 上涨1.64%，而美国国债收益率也随之下滑。 他还提到，自己"大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，除非有欺诈行为的证据出现"。此外，特朗普的经济顾问凯文·哈塞特被提及为可能接替鲍威尔的候选人。就在 前一天，特朗普还表示财政部长贝森特也是他心目中的美联储主席人选。值得一提的是，鲍威尔是在特朗普任内被任命的，自特朗普再次入主白宫以来， 他不断向美联储施加压力，要求降息，并多次公开批评鲍威尔，甚至威胁解除他的主席职务。对此，鲍威尔则回应称，特朗普作为总统没有权力将他解 除，自己会一直工作到任期结束，即2026年5月。然而，最近特朗普政府似乎以美联储总部大楼高昂的翻修费用为新武器，试图在鲍威尔任期到期之前将 其撤换。 此消息公布后，美股三大指数几乎完全回补了盘中的跌幅，显示市场情绪有所恢复。同时，国际黄金价格的涨幅也随之减少。美元指数在短暂下跌后也有 所反弹 ...

美元技术利好与利率预期利空交织 精妙宏观阻力令 金价牛蹄沉重 2025年07月18日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周四国际现货金价以3346.33美元开盘，最高上试3352.19美元，最低下探3309.59美元，报收3338.99美元，下跌7.98美元，跌幅0.24%，振幅1.27%，日K线 呈震荡回软小阴线。 周四美元指数以98.26点开盘，最高上试98.94点，最低下探98.25点，报收98.65点，下跌380点，涨幅0.39%，振幅0.71%，日K线呈震荡上行中阳线。 周四Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以7023.44点开盘，最高上试7110.36点，最低下探6938.67点，报收7080.01点，上涨58.97点，涨幅0.84%，振幅2.33，日 K线呈震荡上行小阳线，收盘价再创历史新高。 周四国际现货银价上涨0.23%，报收38.12美元；现货铂金价格上涨2.84%，报收1455.40美元；现货钯金价格上涨3.30%，报收1274.00美元。 周四美元在周线技术底背离越来越向好的背景下延续涨势。美国市场开盘后，伴随好于预期的美国6月零售销售数据 ...

今日内容 周四国际金价震荡收跌，开盘报3347.41美元/盎司，最高上行至3352.25美元/盎司，最低下探至3309.57 美元/盎司，最终报收于3338.85美元/盎司。 周四在岸人民币对美元收盘报7.1796，较上一交易日下跌20个基点。人民币对美元中间价报7.1461，较 上一交易日调升65个基点。美元指数涨0.36%报98.6419。 央行周四开展4505亿元7天逆回购操作，当日有900亿元7天逆回购到期，因此单日净投放3605亿元。 经济数据方面，美国6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于市场预期的0.1%，前值为下降0.9%。美国零售销 售月率的由负转正说明作为美国经济重要支柱的消费仍较为强劲。美国上周初请失业金人数减少7000人 至22.1万人，连续第五周下降，降至4月中旬以来的最低水平，显示就业市场具有韧性。零售销售数据 公布后，国际金价快速下跌，一度跌破3310美元关口，最终收复部分跌幅。宏观事件方面，近期，多位 美国大型金融机构高管，表示了对美联储独立性的关注，认为若美联储的决策受到政治干预，将对全球 资本市场造成严重扰动。 风险提示：近期国际金价波动较大，市场不确定性较高，请投资者注意风险 ...

消息面上，本周公布的季度财报普遍好于华尔街预期，增强了投资者信心。据FactSet数据显示，截至目前已有约50家标普500指数成份公司公布财报，其 中88%的业绩超过分析师预期。 此外，周四公布的关键经济数据反映出美国经济的稳健。 美国劳工部表示，截至7月12日当周的首次申领失业救济人数为22.1万人，较前一周减少7000人，表明就业市场依然稳健。 另据美国人口普查局的最新数据，6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，远高于道琼斯预期的0.2%，缓解了市场对消费者支出下滑的担忧。 分析师指出，强劲的零售销售数据表明消费者仍在积极支出，推动经济持续扩张。尽管近期有关关税和股市重返历史高点的讨论很多，但市场却较少关注 如今已接近充分就业、消费者仍愿意消费的事实。虽然当前估值偏高，但只要经济持续扩张、失业率保持低位，消费就将延续，利润也将持续增长，而这 正是推动股市上涨的引擎。 隔夜，现货黄金上演惊心动魄的"深V"行情，日内最低触及3309.82美元，最高触及3352.19美元，最终收报于3338.99美元。今日亚市盘中，黄金小幅上 涨，目前在3352美元附近徘徊。 美联储投降了！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，纳指 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overnight economic data in the US showed an overall improvement. The better - than - expected retail data in June and the decline in the weekly initial jobless claims drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend. Gold maintains a long - term bullish trend, and silver retains a medium - term bullish view with cautious consideration of its elasticity. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade game in the first half of August and the change in interest - rate cut expectations brought by the global central bank meeting in the second half of August, as well as the trading interference from the "shadow Fed chairman" in the second half of the year. The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the highest since March this year, with an expected increase of 0.1% and a previous decrease of 0.9%. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.3% and a previous decrease (revised) of 0.2% [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 221,000, with an expected 235,000. The four - week average was 229,500. The number of continued jobless claims as of the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million [2]. - US President Trump said he has no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell unless fraud is proven. He also said he would accept Powell's resignation if Powell wants to [2]. - The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that economic activity in the US slightly rebounded from June to July. Import tariffs pushed up costs, and inflation may accelerate by the end of summer. Employment slightly increased, but companies were more cautious in hiring and lay - off decisions. The Fed's policy rate remained unchanged, and most officials were waiting to observe the impact of trade policies and inflation trends [2]. Price Logic The market had short - term fluctuations around the issue of Powell's possible dismissal. After Trump denied the dismissal rumor, market sentiment subsided. The overall improvement in US economic data drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which maintained a short - term volatile trend. Long - term gold is bullish, and medium - term silver is also bullish with cautious consideration of its elasticity [3]. Outlook The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3].

此前房利美和房地美董事会主席比尔·普尔特（William Pulte）还帮助散布了关于鲍威尔正考虑辞职的虚 假谣言。 他在一份官方声明中说，"有报道称鲍威尔正考虑辞职，我对此感到鼓舞。我认为这对美国来说将是正 确的决定，经济将会蓬勃发展。" 另据透露，特朗普周二与共和党议员讨论了可能解雇鲍威尔的问题，但他后来又收回了说法，称这"极 不可能"。 特朗普从不羞于表达他对鲍威尔的不满，因为鲍威尔维持着美联储当前的中性货币政策立场。特朗普最 近表示，美联储应迅速降息300个基点，这将使联邦基金利率处于1.25%至1.50%的区间。 在过去几个月里，特朗普发起了人身攻击，称鲍威尔为"笨蛋"、"白痴"、"蠢货"，并给他起了个绰号 叫"太迟先生"。然而，这种言辞在近几天有所加剧。 美国总统特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔之间不断升级的政治紧张关系正在动摇投资者的信心，分析师警告 称，对央行独立性的任何打击都可能导致金价飙升。 围绕美联储领导层的不确定性正在给市场注入新的波动性，分析师表示，随着对美联储独立性的担忧加 剧，这种环境只会恶化。 美联储恐丧失"超能力" 在周四发布的一份报告中，瑞讯银行（Swissquote Bank）高 ...

Group 1 - Waller advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting to address rising economic risks [2][3] - He highlights significant risks in the labor market, indicating that private sector job growth is nearing a "stall" and that the true health of the labor market is questionable [3] - Waller suggests that the policy rate should be lowered to around 3%, which is significantly below current levels [3] Group 2 - There is a notable divide within the Federal Reserve, with some officials expressing concerns about the inflationary effects of tariffs and maintaining a restrictive policy stance [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July remain low, with a 97.4% probability of maintaining current rates according to CME data [4] - Waller's dovish comments have led some institutions, like Goldman Sachs, to reassess the likelihood of a rate cut, suggesting it could rise to 15% if economic data weakens [4] Group 3 - Waller's statements have had a direct impact on the gold market, with gold prices experiencing a slight increase following his remarks [5] - Historically, rate cuts tend to boost gold prices by lowering opportunity costs and driving funds away from interest-bearing assets [7] - The anticipation of a weaker dollar due to rate cut expectations has also enhanced the attractiveness of gold, as indicated by a drop in the dollar index [7] Group 4 - Increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has been observed, driven by Waller's warnings about economic downturn risks and geopolitical uncertainties [9] - The World Gold Council reported a 12-ton increase in gold ETF holdings since July, reflecting a defensive positioning by institutional investors [9] - Waller's comments serve as a microcosm of the internal Federal Reserve dynamics and the broader market's search for balance amid risks and opportunities [9]