Group 1: Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy - China's economy is expected to grow by around 5% this year, supported by more proactive fiscal policies, with a deficit rate increased to about 4% and a corresponding deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [1] - The issuance of special long-term bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan aims to support key projects in new urbanization and major infrastructure, which will help expand effective investment [3] - The government plans to issue an additional 4.4 trillion yuan in local special bonds for investment construction and debt resolution, with 500 billion yuan allocated for debt management in the fourth quarter [1][2] Group 2: Budget Revenue and Expenditure - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [2] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% to 3.45 trillion yuan, with land transfer income dropping by 7.4% to approximately 2.5 trillion yuan [2] - Despite low growth in fiscal revenue, government spending remains positive, driven by the accelerated use of local special bonds and long-term bonds [2] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Trends - Social retail sales grew by 4.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating cautious consumer spending [5] - Fixed asset investment saw a slight decline of 0.1%, reflecting insufficient investment demand [5] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending and investment through fiscal policies that increase disposable income and social security levels [5] Group 4: Real Estate Market and Debt Management - The real estate market's performance is crucial for stabilizing local fiscal revenue, with land sales income at 2.5 trillion yuan for the first ten months [7] - The government is implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including using special bonds to acquire idle land and exploring the use of funds for purchasing unsold properties [8] - Debt management strategies include issuing bonds to replace hidden debts and addressing overdue payments to businesses, with a total of approximately 3.5 trillion yuan allocated for debt resolution [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing monetary policy's strength, timing, and rhythm to support economic growth and maintain price stability while enhancing financial support for structural adjustments and high-quality development [1][2] Group 1: Short-term vs Long-term Relationship - The need for comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and effectively smooth economic fluctuations is highlighted [1] - It is crucial to focus on cross-cycle balance to avoid excessive policy measures that could lead to diminishing returns and long-term side effects, thereby better supporting key areas and weak links for sustainable growth [1] Group 2: Growth vs Risk Prevention Relationship - The changing requirements for monetary credit growth in the real economy due to structural transformation necessitate improving the efficiency of existing funds and optimizing the allocation of new loans [1] - Balancing financial support for economic growth with the health of financial institutions is essential to enhance fund allocation efficiency and promote sustainable credit and financial stability [1] Group 3: Internal vs External Relationship - China's monetary policy primarily considers domestic economic and financial conditions while also accounting for the spillover effects of other economies' monetary policies [2] - The article notes that the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has gradually increased, providing China with the capability to balance internal and external relationships effectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the dual objectives of maintaining currency stability and financial stability, utilizing a robust monetary policy framework and macro-prudential management system as foundational tools for macroeconomic management [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank aims to construct a scientifically sound and robust monetary policy system that effectively combines currency stability and financial stability, which is crucial for supporting the construction of a financial powerhouse [1] - It is essential to accurately grasp the connotations and requirements of a scientific and robust monetary policy, focusing on the strength, timing, and rhythm of monetary policy [1] Group 2: Economic Adjustment - The central bank should enhance cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments, ensuring that monetary conditions align with supporting potential economic growth and basic price stability [1] - There is a need to manage the relationship between short-term and long-term objectives, utilizing various monetary policy tools to smooth economic fluctuations while avoiding excessive policy interventions that could lead to diminishing returns and long-term side effects [2] Group 3: Financial Support and Risk Management - The relationship between stabilizing growth and preventing risks is critical, as changes in the economic structure and credit structure affect the demand for monetary credit growth [2] - Improving the efficiency of existing funds and optimizing the allocation of new loans are equally important for supporting economic growth [2] Group 4: Internal and External Relations - Domestic economic and financial conditions primarily guide China's monetary policy, while also considering the spillover effects from other economies and their monetary policy cycles [2] - The flexibility of the RMB exchange rate has gradually increased, and the maturity of foreign exchange market participants has improved, enabling better management of internal and external relationships [2]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 4, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Finance Team [4] Core Viewpoints - Domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid-year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still drags down credit expansion significantly. Monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing. The bond market's positive factors are accumulating, but in the short term, it's difficult for the easing to materialize, and it's unlikely for the bond market to start a new round of rapid rise. It's still in the period of oscillatory energy accumulation. Attention should be paid to opportunities for bottom-fishing. In the short term, with important meetings approaching in December, the market may be more cautious about policies. Currently, the loose capital market is the main support for the bond market, but the low expectation of easing implementation limits the upward momentum of treasury bond futures. Although the new regulations on fund sales fees bring short-term uncertainties, they will not affect the long-term allocation behavior of institutions. The central bank's bond purchases, although with limited net investment, still show a slight increase, and the resumption of operations also sends a signal of easing. In the long term, as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates will continue. Currently, the market's expectation of the central bank's easing operations is returning to rationality, and the risk of further adjustment should be limited [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: After the central bank's bond purchase data for November was released last night, with a net purchase of 50 billion yuan, a slight increase of 30 billion yuan compared to October, market sentiment improved. Most treasury bond futures closed slightly higher, but long-term bonds remained weak. The yields of major interbank interest rate bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, with the long-end rising by less than 1bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.84%, up 0.4bp. The interbank capital market was loose. The central bank had 213.3 billion yuan of funds due in the open market and injected 79.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan. The interbank capital sentiment index was stable, and the capital supply was abundant. The weighted overnight rate in the interbank deposit market fluctuated around 1.3%, and the 7-day rate fluctuated around 1.44%. The medium and long-term funds were stable, and the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained in the range of 1.61% - 1.63% [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market's positive factors are accumulating, but in the short term, it's difficult for the easing to materialize, and it's in the period of oscillatory energy accumulation. Attention should be paid to bottom-fishing opportunities. The loose capital market is the main support for the bond market, but the low expectation of easing implementation limits the upward momentum of treasury bond futures. The new regulations on fund sales fees have a short-term impact, and the central bank's bond purchases show a slight increase and a signal of easing. In the long term, as long as the easing orientation remains unchanged, the downward trend of interest rates will continue. The risk of further adjustment is limited [11][12] 2. Industry News - China's S&P Composite PMI in November was 51.2, down from the previous value of 51.8; the S&P Services PMI was 52.1, down from the previous value of 52.6. The new order index continued to grow since the beginning of 2023, and the new export order performance improved significantly [13] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a special symposium on the compilation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises, emphasizing the optimization and adjustment of the state-owned economic layout and the construction of a modern industrial system [13] - On December 2, the People's Bank of China announced the liquidity injection of various central bank tools in November 2025. The net investment in open market treasury bond trading was 50 billion yuan, and it was the second consecutive month of treasury bond trading operations [13] - From January to October, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 68.35293 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; the total profit was 3.42144 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. As of the end of October, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 65.2%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [13] - The issuance of local government special bonds has entered a "closing wave" at the end of the year. As of November 30, the scale of newly issued special bonds in November reached approximately 492.192 billion yuan, an increase of more than 200 billion yuan compared to October, with a month-on-month increase of 71% [14] - The working meeting of the Market Interest Rate Pricing Self-regulatory Mechanism was held, discussing and exchanging hot issues in current interest rate pricing and self-regulatory management [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on December 3, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for each contract [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, interbank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and interbank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (average) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (average) [34]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of accurately understanding the connotations and requirements of a scientifically sound monetary policy [1] - It highlights the need to grasp the strength, timing, and rhythm of monetary policy, focusing on cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - The article stresses the alignment of monetary conditions with the support for potential economic growth and basic price stability [1] Group 2 - It calls for enhancing the adaptability and precision of financial support for economic structural adjustments and high-quality development [1]

【博时市场点评12月3日】两市继续调整，量能维持低位 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数继续调整，两市成交仍不足1.7万亿。海外方面，上周多数补发的数据显示政府"停 摆"前美国经济已呈现减速趋势，经济下行风险增加，美联储12月降息概率重回八成以上，本月议息会 议或呈现降息+鹰派表态的局面。国内方面，11月央行通过多种工具净投放流动性，显示货币政策维持 稳健偏宽松基调。12月将进入重要会议的政策窗口期，但当前市场对于增量政策预期或不高。当前经济 处于弱修复状态，权益市场短期或仍维持震荡格局，配置上建议均衡。 消息面 央行发布11月各项工具流动性投放情况显示，11月公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元，抵押补充贷款 （PSL）净投放254亿元，其他结构性货币政策工具净投放1150亿元，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放 1000亿元。尽管同期7天期逆回购操作为净回笼，但通过加大中长期流动性工具的运用与搭配，央行在 整体上依然实现了资金面的净投放。 简评：11月央行通过公开市场操作及各类货币政策工具合计净投放2904亿元，显示逆周期调节力度持续 加大。其中结构性工具净投放占比近40%，体现精准滴灌导向，有助于缓解实体经济融资压力。在 ...

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 2 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货12月1日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 114.690 | 114.450 | 114.600 | 114.600 | -0.090 | -0.08 | 336 | 6844 | -346 | | TL2603 | 114.460 | 114.450 | 114.370 | 114.470 | -0.090 | -0.08 | 85367 | 148056 | 666 | | TL2606 | 114.610 | 114.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory body is implementing a counter-cyclical adjustment mechanism for fund product approvals to better protect investor interests, emphasizing a cautious approach towards new equity fund approvals amid high valuation benchmarks [1][2][7]. Fund Approval and Market Conditions - Regulatory scrutiny on new equity funds has increased, requiring that the performance benchmark index's rolling valuation over the last five years be below the 90th percentile and the last three months below the 80th percentile [2][3]. - Despite a bullish A-share market, fund companies are exercising restraint in launching new equity funds, with many setting initial fundraising caps at 2 billion to 3 billion yuan [1][4]. Fund Product Trends - Recent approvals have favored funds in sectors with relatively low valuations, such as healthcare, food, and consumer electronics, indicating a strategic focus on value [3][4]. - The approval of 16 hard technology products in mid-November reflects the regulatory body's timely response to market fluctuations, showcasing the effectiveness of the counter-cyclical adjustment mechanism [3][7]. Scale Management and Investor Experience - Fund companies are actively controlling the scale of new products, with many setting fundraising limits between 2 billion and 3 billion yuan, contrasting with the past trend of large-scale fund launches [4][5]. - Over 100 equity funds have announced restrictions on large subscriptions, with a focus on protecting existing investors and maintaining stable fund operations [5][6]. Regulatory Changes and Industry Transformation - The regulatory framework is shifting from a focus on scale to quality, with new performance evaluation metrics emphasizing long-term investment returns and investor experience [6][7]. - The implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment mechanisms is expected to enhance the capital market's resource allocation and support long-term investment strategies [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance and its role in supporting China's modernization and national rejuvenation efforts [1] - The implementation of proactive fiscal policies since the new era has deepened the understanding of fiscal macro-control, utilizing tools like budgets, taxes, and government bonds to stabilize economic cycles and promote structural optimization [2][3] - The average economic growth rate in China is projected to be 5.5% from 2021 to 2024, with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually [3] Group 2 - The achievements in fiscal policy reflect the innovative theories of the Party, focusing on counter-cyclical management and the integration of supply-side and demand-side strategies [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will see public budget expenditures exceed 136 trillion yuan, supporting key national strategies such as rural revitalization and regional coordinated development [3][4] - The fiscal policy aims to enhance the effectiveness of macro-control and improve the management of public finances, ensuring that resources are directed towards areas that benefit the public [6][12] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for achieving socialist modernization, with complex domestic and international challenges that require effective fiscal responses [5] - The focus will be on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and improving living standards through targeted fiscal measures [9][10][11] - The government aims to prevent and mitigate local government debt risks while promoting sustainable fiscal development [12]