Trade and Economic Insights - In April, China's exports grew by 9.3% year-on-year, showcasing resilience despite US-China trade tensions [1] - For the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, with exports at 8.39 trillion yuan (up 7.5%) and imports at 5.75 trillion yuan (down 4.2%) [1] - High-tech products saw significant performance, with imports and exports totaling 1.52 trillion yuan, a 7.4% increase [1] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 12.6%, while imports from ASEAN rose by 4% [1] - The US-China trade friction is leading some Chinese exporters to reroute products through neighboring countries to mitigate high tariffs [2] UK-US Trade Agreement - The UK and US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the UK making concessions on agricultural imports in exchange for reduced tariffs on UK car exports [3] - The agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on UK car exports to the US from 27.5% to 10% and eliminates tariffs on steel and aluminum [3] - The deal is seen as a framework agreement, with further negotiations needed on various details [4] Semiconductor Industry - Semiconductor giant SMIC reported a 166.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1, reaching approximately 1.356 billion yuan, with revenue up 29.4% to about 16.301 billion yuan [7] - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 4% to 6% in Q2, with gross margins expected to range between 18% and 20% [7] - SMIC's performance is influenced by increased domestic demand and preemptive stockpiling by overseas clients due to US tariff policies [8] AI Development Initiatives - OpenAI announced a new global AI development initiative called "OpenAI for Countries," aiming to assist nations in developing AI infrastructure [9] - The initial goal is to launch 10 projects globally, funded by OpenAI and participating governments, although specific project locations have not been disclosed [9] Automotive Safety Standards - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in China is seeking public input on a new mandatory national standard for automotive door handles, addressing safety concerns related to hidden door handles [11] - The initiative follows incidents highlighting the safety risks associated with hidden door handles in electric vehicles [12] Banking Sector Trends - Several banks have reintroduced cash installment services with interest rates dropping to as low as 2.76%, following competitive pricing strategies [13] - The cash installment rates are not subject to the same regulatory limits as consumer loans, allowing for lower rates [13] - The banking sector is facing pressure to maintain profitability amid declining net profits and increased competition for new loans [14]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 高关税之下，出口结构有变化 据海关总署，2025 年 4 月出口总值为 3157 亿美元，同比增长 8.1%，高于市场预期的 1.9%，前值为 12.4%；进口总值为 2195 亿美元，同比下降 0.2%，预期-5.9%，前值-4.3%。4月以来中美贸易紧张局势逐渐升 级，美国对华关税提高至 145%，中国也采取了反制措施，如何看待 4 月份进出口数据？ 一是美国加征关税的影响开始显现。4 月对美出口同比下降 20.9%，为 2023 年 7 月以来最低增速；拖累出 口同比约 3 个百分点。美国 10%基准关税于 4 月 5 日生效，其他更高对等关税于 4 月 9 日陆续生效。而对来自 中国（含香港）的小包免税待遇，于 5 月 2 日取消。根据美国海关发布的文件，美国关税生效之前已装船并处于 最终运输模式，在规定时间前到达美国，可豁免关税。因而 4 月对美出口受到关税的部分影响，更全面的影响可 能体现在 5 月数据之中。 美国加征关税冲击下，周边经济体出口走势分化。韩国 4 月出口同比增幅为 3 ...

图1：4月进出口表现好于市场预期 4月我国进出口金额同比增速表现好于市场预期，出口增速下滑但仍保持较快增长，进口降幅收窄，贸易顺差 大幅扩张。 按美元计价，进出口总金额5,352亿美元，同比增长4.6%。其中，出口3,156.9亿美元，同比 8.1%（3月12.4%，市场预期0.7%）；进口2,195.1亿美元，同比-0.2%（3月-4.3%，市场预期-6.9%）；贸易顺差 961.8亿美元，同比扩张241.9亿美元（+33.6%）。4月外需下行压力初步显现，重点港口货物和集装箱吞吐量 先下降后回升，出口集装箱运价指数环比下滑4.5%。 分地区看， 相较3月，我国对美国以及非美地区出口增速表现明显分化。4月对美出口增速大幅下降30.1pct 至-21.0%，对非美地区出口增速上行0.1pct至13.0%。非美地区中，对新兴市场如东盟出口增速大幅上行9.2pct 至20.8%，对拉美（17.3%）、非洲（25.3%）出口增速下行但保持较高增速。对欧盟增速下行2.0pct至8.3%， 对日本（7.8%）、 中国台湾地区（15.5%）出口增速提升。随着中美贸易摩擦冲击进一步显现，我国对美和对 非美地区出口表现或继续 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 低库存给予铜铝支撑 核心观点 沪铜 沪铜主力期价昨日夜盘冲高，站上 7.8 万关口，今日早盘跳水， 日内震荡运行。美联储 5 月议息会议落地，整体偏鹰派，利空铜价。 短期铜价在 7.8 万一线仍有较强的技术压力。短期可持续关注 7.8 万 关口多空博弈，也可关注月间正套。消息面上，关注中美在瑞会 议，若中美贸易摩擦趋于缓和，将在宏观氛围和终端需求上利好铜 价。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Trade wars and geopolitical situations keep fluctuating, and the market's expectation of the demand recovery for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is in doubt again. If the tariff rate imposed by the US on Europe is better than expected, the performance of far - month futures prices may be better than that of near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and continuously track tariff and geopolitical information [7][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed mixed trends. The main contract closed down 3.73%, and the other contracts had a decline ranging from - 2% to 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1379.07, down 50.32 points from last week, a 3.5% week - on - week decrease. The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures declined this week, and the trading volume and open interest of the EC2506 contract both decreased [6][9][12]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | US President Trump announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US, which is bearish | [20] | | He said he was meeting with many countries on trade agreements and might reach some this week, with no clear impact | [20] | | China's Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US economic and trade talks, neutral | [20] | | The UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, which is bullish | [20] | | The EU announced a retaliatory list for 95 billion euros of US goods, bearish | [20] | | The central bank governors of ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea reached an agreement, neutral | [20] | 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts declined, and the price spread converged rapidly this week. The export container freight rate index continued to decline. Container shipping capacity is still rising. BDI and BPI rebounded slightly due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships mostly declined, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar widened [24][29][31]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed mixed trends this week. Amidst Sino - US trade frictions and potential US trade strikes against Europe, the long - term weakness of the euro may continue. The geopolitical risk has increased again, and the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has cooled. Overall, due to the instability of trade wars and geopolitical situations, the market's expectation of demand recovery for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is in doubt again [40].

4月以来，聚氯乙烯(PVC)市场在供需弱平衡状态下一路震荡下行。据隆众资讯数据，截至5月8日，华 东地区电石法五型PVC现汇库提价在4730元(吨价，下同)，较4月1日下跌140元，跌幅达2.87%。 "常规检修季PVC检修规模受限，叠加新产能投放等因素影响，供应预期增加。同时国内需求缺乏实质 性增长，出口受外贸关税纷争、印度进口政策影响，难以大幅回升，短期PVC价格重心看跌趋势不 变。"隆众资讯PVC产业链主管石磊说。 供应预期增加 今年PVC生产企业集中检修时间从4月开始预计延续到8月。"五一"假期归来，安徽华塑股份（600935） 有限公司和青海宜化化工有限公司等PVC装置开工率提升。据隆众资讯数据显示，本周期(5月3日至9 日)内，PVC产量预计在47.40万吨，环比提升2.4%。边际企业开工率维持在六七成，西北电石法企业凭 借其成本优势，开工基本稳定在八成以上。 "4月计划检修产能约570万吨，但相较于近两年春季检修规模有所缩小，同比减少20.94%, 难以对供应 端形成有效收缩。"隆众资讯分析师杨荣荣说。 "据卓创资讯（301299）统计，计划在5月至7月试车投产的装置包括浙江嘉化能源（60027 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Rebound [6] - Palm oil: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillating bearishly [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Oscillation [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] - Plastics: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [11] - PVC: Oscillating weakly [11] Core Views - The iron ore market is currently strong in the short term but bearish in the medium to long term due to potential steel mill production cuts and trade frictions [2] - The coal and coke market is weak, with high supply pressure and an unchanged pattern of oversupply in coke [2] - The rebar market is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high production, potential export impacts, and seasonal demand decline [2] - The glass market lacks upward momentum as the real estate industry remains in an adjustment period [2] - The stock index market is expected to rebound as the external market stabilizes and risk aversion eases [4] - The Treasury bond market is expected to rise as the central bank maintains reasonable liquidity [4] - The precious metal market is expected to oscillate at a high level, with gold prices influenced by interest rate and tariff policies [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak demand and reduced cost support [6] - The log market is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate, with potential marginal improvement in demand [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term due to ample supply and seasonal demand decline [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate bearishly as soybean supply increases and demand weakens after the holiday [6] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased supply and uncertain demand [9] - The chemical product market shows various trends, with prices mainly influenced by supply and demand, raw material prices, and macro factors [9][11] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: After the press conference, the iron ore futures price rose and then fell. Global iron ore shipments may increase seasonally in the coming weeks. Steel mill profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, but steel production may peak in May. Steel exports face tariff risks, and domestic demand is entering a seasonal off - season, which may lead to steel mill production cuts and be bearish for iron ore in the medium to long term [2] - **Coal and coke**: Mongolian coal supply growth is limited, but the overall supply pressure remains high. Steel spot trading is poor due to tariff policies, and market confidence is low. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and coal and coke prices mainly follow the trend of finished steel products [2] - **Rebar**: After the press conference, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Steel mill profits are good, and supply pressure is increasing. There are doubts about external demand and domestic demand in May. The market inventory is low, which supports the price, but overall, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has slightly fluctuated. Coal prices have fallen, improving profits. Factory inventories have slightly decreased, but there are regional differences. Overall, demand is weak, and the market lacks upward momentum [2] Financial and Precious Metal Industry - **Stock index**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. Aerospace and military industry, and communication equipment sectors had capital inflows. With the stabilization of the external market and the easing of risk aversion, stock index futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Treasury bond**: Yields of Treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations to inject liquidity. The market is expected to maintain reasonable liquidity, and Treasury bond futures are recommended to be held long [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies. The current upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry and Oil and Fat Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is strong, but the decline in external market prices weakens cost support. Paper mills' profitability is low, and demand is poor, so the pulp price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Logs**: Log demand has declined after a peak, but supply pressure has decreased due to reduced arrivals. Spot prices are stable, and the price is expected to stabilize at a low level and oscillate [6] - **Oil and fat**: Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is in a seasonal growth period, and soybean production in South America is abundant. Supply is ample, while demand is in a seasonal off - season. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and oscillate bearishly in the medium term [6] - **Meal**: U.S. soybean planting conditions may improve, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and meal supply is expected to increase while demand weakens after the holiday, so the meal price is expected to oscillate bearishly [6] Soft Commodity and Chemical Industry - **Rubber**: Supply is expected to increase as the main producing areas start the tapping season. Demand is uncertain, and inventory is still relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [9] - **PX**: Affected by demand and geopolitical factors, oil prices are oscillating at a low level. PX prices are expected to follow oil price fluctuations [9] - **PTA**: Raw material prices are volatile, and PTA supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production capacity utilization has increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. However, due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, the price fluctuates widely [9] - **Plastics and related products**: Different plastic products have different supply - demand situations and cost factors. Overall, prices are affected by supply, demand, raw material prices, and macro - sentiment [9][11]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 不建议追空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆ ...

Summary of the Conference Call for 上声电子 Company Overview - **Company**: 上声电子 - **Industry**: Automotive Electronics Key Financial Performance - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: Exceeded 600 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 6% [2][3] - **2024 Revenue**: 2.776 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.32% [3] - **2024 Net Profit**: 235 million, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% [3] - **2025 Revenue Target**: Exceed 3 billion [4] Product Performance - **Product Lines**: Significant growth in amplifiers and AVAS automotive electronic products, both exceeding 40% growth [2][3] - **Speaker Sales**: Expected to reach approximately 90 million units in 2024, with domestic market growth being the fastest [2][11] - **Amplifier Sales**: Targeting 750,000 to 850,000 units in 2024, aiming for 1 million units in 2025 [2][12] Market Dynamics - **Domestic vs. Overseas Market**: Domestic market remains the main revenue source, with overseas market revenue accounting for about 30%, showing a declining trend [2][5] - **Impact of US-China Trade Tensions**: Trade tensions have affected operations, but customer orders remain intact. The company is negotiating solutions such as transshipment trade or production in Mexico [5][7] Operational Insights - **Czech and Mexico Operations**: Revenue growth in Czech and Mexico, but gross margins have declined. The Mexico plant is stabilizing, with ongoing efforts to improve profitability [2][6][8] - **Hefei Plant**: Total investment over 500 million, with significant depreciation impacts. The goal for 2025 is to achieve breakeven [4][15][16] Gross Margin and Cost Management - **Gross Margin Expectations**: 2024 speaker gross margin expected to decrease by 3%, while amplifier gross margin is projected to increase by 9% [2][10] - **Cost Control Measures**: The company plans to reduce losses through cost-cutting and efficiency improvements [13] Future Outlook - **2025 Growth Strategy**: Focus on innovation, including AI amplifiers and digital speakers to enhance market demand and gross margins [31] - **New Client Projects**: Anticipated production of consumer audio products in the second half of 2025, with potential new automotive projects [32] Challenges and Risks - **Competitive Pressure**: The automotive industry is highly competitive, leading to pricing pressures, especially in low-end products [29][33] - **Material Costs**: Rising raw material prices, particularly for rare earth materials, are expected to impact gross margins [45] Global Expansion Plans - **Production Shift to Mexico**: Plans to transfer some production to Mexico by 2026, including new assembly lines for low-frequency and high-frequency speakers [41] - **Market Development**: Focus on expanding client relationships in Europe and Mexico, targeting major automotive brands [44] Additional Insights - **Software Development**: The company has a robust software team focused on various algorithms to enhance audio experiences [40] - **Acoustic Configuration Trends**: Both new and traditional automotive companies are enhancing their acoustic configurations, indicating a shift towards higher quality sound systems [36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, operational insights, and future strategies.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the impact of U.S. punitive tariffs on Chinese export enterprises, particularly in April 2025, highlighting significant declines in exports to the U.S. and the resulting strategies adopted by Chinese companies to cope with the new trade environment [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Exports**: - Following the implementation of U.S. tariffs in April 2025, there was a substantial drop in Chinese exports to the U.S., with many companies halting shipments or returning goods [1][2][4]. - Specific industries such as zippers, power tools, and automotive parts were notably affected, with some companies reporting order reductions of up to 50% [2][4]. 2. **Response Strategies by Chinese Companies**: - Companies adopted various strategies, including stockpiling goods, adjusting export destinations, and relocating production overseas [1][3][19]. - High-value, low-cost products continued to be exported despite tariffs, as importers could still absorb the costs [8][19]. 3. **Inflationary Effects in the U.S.**: - The tariffs have significantly contributed to rising inflation in the U.S., with most imported products facing additional tariffs of 15%-20%, leading to increases in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) [10][27]. 4. **Market Diversification**: - Companies are gradually reducing reliance on the U.S. market, shifting focus to Europe and emerging markets, and adjusting product pricing accordingly [3][14][19]. 5. **E-commerce Resilience**: - The Chinese cross-border e-commerce sector has shown resilience, with online sales less affected by tariffs compared to offline channels, as companies utilize overseas warehouses to manage inventory [28][29]. 6. **Challenges in Supply Chain Transition**: - Transitioning supply chains to Southeast Asia presents challenges, including increased costs and production inefficiencies, as well as stricter origin certification requirements [15][16][45]. 7. **Future Trade Dynamics**: - There are indications of potential easing of tariffs, with discussions around possibly lowering average tariffs on Chinese imports [11]. - The overall economic outlook remains pessimistic, with expectations of negative impacts on both the U.S. and global economies due to the tariffs [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Order Trends**: Despite the challenges, about 61%-62% of surveyed companies reported stable or increasing orders from non-U.S. markets, indicating some resilience in global demand [26]. - **Emerging Market Opportunities**: There are growth opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in infrastructure-related sectors, as demand for construction equipment rises [22]. - **Logistics and Shipping**: The logistics sector faces significant risks due to halted trade routes, necessitating new solutions and adjustments in supply chain strategies [33][34]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese export industry in light of U.S. tariffs and the strategies being employed to navigate these challenges.