1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [2]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures market: This week, the main rebar contract RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,132 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 2.23 million lots, a decrease of 7,200 lots. The main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,262 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 1.5971 million lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar shifted upward. As of July 11, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot-rolled coils shifted downward. As of July 11, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,180 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures-spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 67 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [10]. - Inter-month spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 28 yuan/ton, a change of +7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 10 yuan/ton, a change of +1 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Rebar-hot rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 139 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 121 yuan/ton, a change of +4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 22.94 percentage points year-on-year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week and an increase of 15,200 tons year-on-year [19]. - This week, the total weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.7272 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week. The effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month [19]. 3.2.2 Demand - Last week, the US government imposed a "tariff bomb" on 14 countries. US President Trump posted several letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot-rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off-season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino-US trade friction and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the implementation path of the off-season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 9.1401 million tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons week-on-week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.2557 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons week-on-week. The total social + steel mill inventory was 13.3958 million tons, a decrease of 350 tons week-on-week. The overall inventory is at a low level compared to the same period, continuing a certain de-stocking trend [33]. 3.2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel increased slightly to 59.74%. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 3,262 yuan/ton. The steel price trend was relatively strong, and the price increase of rebar in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. Profits have rebounded. The average profit of steel mills was -107 yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit was -4 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton week-on-week [44]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billet increased by 24 yuan/ton to 2,983 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 23 yuan/ton to 748 yuan/ton [53]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [56]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the proposed 50% tariff on copper and related products by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impact on the U.S. copper market and global supply dynamics [1][5][9]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 8, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and related products, which is expected to include copper wire, scrap copper, and copper-containing products, but exclude copper concentrate and end products like appliances and electronics [1][5]. - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures experienced a three-day rally, reaching a historical high of $5.89 per pound, while LME copper prices fluctuated, dropping to $9,553 per ton before rebounding [3]. Group 2: U.S. Copper Production and Consumption - The U.S. produces approximately 800,000 to 850,000 tons of refined copper annually but consumes around 1.6 million tons, leading to a significant import dependency [5][6]. - The White House aims to increase domestic copper production by 70% by 2035 and reduce import reliance from 45% to 30% [9]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Alternatives - Various industries are affected by the tariff, with the textile industry having 17% of its exports to the U.S., while the consumer electronics sector faces a 27.5% exposure [11]. - The article suggests that while tariffs may incentivize domestic production, the high costs and long timelines associated with mining new copper sources pose significant challenges [12][14]. Group 4: Global Copper Supply Dynamics - The article notes that the U.S. copper mining sector is facing increasing operational costs and legal challenges, making it difficult to ramp up production quickly [12][14]. - China has become the largest copper refining nation, with production expected to reach 12 million tons by 2024, and it controls nearly half of the global copper refining capacity [29][31]. Group 5: Price Dynamics and Market Expectations - The article indicates that copper prices are expected to stabilize around $12,000 to $13,000 per ton, which is necessary for mining operations to be economically viable [13][37]. - The tariff is seen as a variable that may influence short-term pricing but is unlikely to change the fundamental pricing logic based on global supply and demand dynamics [37]. Group 6: Geopolitical Considerations - The article highlights that geopolitical tensions are driving China to increase its overseas mining acquisitions, reflecting a strategic move to secure essential raw materials amid rising global competition [33][35]. - The U.S. tariffs are viewed as a tool to address supply imbalances, but the effectiveness of such measures remains uncertain given the complexities of the mining and refining industries [39].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the macroeconomic outlook and capital markets in China for the second half of 2025, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and tariffs. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Exports**: The assumption of a 30% tariff increase by the U.S. on Chinese goods could reduce China's export growth by approximately 3.2 percentage points for the year [3][8][27]. 2. **Economic Resilience**: Despite pressures on exports and consumption, the real estate investment decline is expected to narrow, and infrastructure investment shows potential for growth [3][8][9]. 3. **Policy Measures**: The Chinese government is expected to implement proactive fiscal policies, focusing on accelerating existing projects and adjusting fiscal allocations to support consumption and infrastructure [3][10][9]. 4. **Market Outlook**: The bond market is anticipated to remain volatile, while the stock market is expected to see structural opportunities, particularly in high-dividend sectors and dynamic small to mid-cap growth companies [3][10][9]. 5. **Fiscal Multipliers**: The estimated fiscal spending multiplier for China is about 0.83, indicating that a 4% increase in fiscal spending could boost GDP growth by 1% [10][9]. 6. **Tariff Negotiations**: The U.S. and China have seen a reduction in tariffs following the Geneva talks, with the U.S. canceling 91% of its additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [17][21][19]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Uncertainty in Tariff Policies**: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariff policies poses risks to economic forecasts and market stability [11]. 2. **Potential for New Economic Drivers**: The emergence of new economic drivers may lead to smoother growth trajectories, although this remains uncertain [11]. 3. **Leading Indicators**: There may be gaps in the analysis of leading indicators, which could affect the accuracy of economic predictions [11]. 4. **Fiscal Policy Limitations**: There is a risk that fiscal policies may not meet expectations, which could hinder economic recovery [11]. 5. **Modeling Errors**: The models and calculations used to predict economic impacts may not align perfectly with actual outcomes, introducing further risk [11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and potential future developments in the context of U.S.-China trade relations.

Group 1 - The report highlights that the U.S. tariff policy has disrupted the global economy, with multiple international organizations downgrading global economic growth forecasts for 2025 to 2.3% due to trade policy uncertainties [10][12][31] - The U.S. trade deficit with its major trading partners has shown a noticeable decline following the implementation of tariffs, with the trade deficit in April 2025 reported at $87.4 billion, down from $162.6 billion in March [15][31] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing resilience despite tariff impacts, with the services PMI returning to expansion territory and manufacturing orders showing signs of recovery [31][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the trade friction between China and the U.S. has shifted from escalation to dialogue, with significant negotiations taking place in Geneva and London leading to a framework agreement for tariff reductions [50][52] - China's exports to Africa and Europe have shown strong growth, with exports to Africa increasing by 33.33% year-on-year in May 2025, indicating a diversification of trade relationships [68] - The report emphasizes the importance of new economic drivers, with high-tech sectors experiencing price increases, particularly in integrated circuits and wearable technology, reflecting a shift towards innovation-led growth [75][79] Group 3 - The report suggests that long-term growth remains intact, with A-share market earnings expected to recover significantly in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a potential for a sustained bull market [10][31] - It highlights the importance of policy support in stabilizing market performance, with insurance funds expected to continue increasing their holdings in A-shares through early 2025 [10][31] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including defense, low-altitude economy, stablecoins, AI, and autonomous robotics, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and high growth potential [10][75]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a significant reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which is expected to tighten supply and potentially increase domestic soybean meal prices [1][4] - The USDA reported that the U.S. soybean planting area is 83.38 million acres, lower than both the intended planting area of 83.50 million acres and market expectations of 83.65 million acres, marking a five-year low [1] - The ending stocks for U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season are projected to be only 8.03 million tons, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 6.68%, indicating a low inventory situation compared to previous years [1] Group 2 - Weather conditions during the soybean planting period in May and June were favorable for planting but require sufficient rainfall in July and August for crop growth, increasing sensitivity to weather-related speculation [2] - As of July 6, the soybean good-to-excellent rating was 66%, matching the previous week but lower than the 68% from the same time last year, indicating a need for attention to rainfall in August [2] - The EPA's proposed blending rules for 2026-2027 significantly exceed market expectations, which is expected to increase demand for soybean oil and indirectly support soybean prices [3] Group 3 - Domestic soybean meal market is currently characterized by a "weak reality strong expectation" state, with a supply surplus in the third quarter suppressing prices [4] - A potential supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter could lead to increased domestic soybean meal prices [4] - The forecast for domestic soybean imports is high, with June imports reaching 10.56 million tons and expected to rise to 11 million tons in July, indicating a supply surplus in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rise and subsequent fall, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing the 3500-point mark, driven by various factors including economic indicators and market sentiment [1][5][6]. Market Performance - The two markets had a total trading volume of 1.51 trillion yuan, with sectors like diversified finance, banking, and media showing gains, while insurance, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals faced declines [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that a sustained increase in trading volume above 1.6 trillion yuan and a stable breakthrough of the 3500-point level could open up further upward potential for the index [4][6]. Economic Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached a 14-month high, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, indicating a potential economic stabilization and positive market sentiment [8][10]. - The rise in CPI was attributed to a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices and effective policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [10]. International Relations - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, including a planned meeting between U.S. Commerce Secretary and Chinese officials, may positively influence market sentiment [11][12]. - The U.S. has postponed the implementation of tariffs on certain countries, which could alleviate some market pressures and provide a more favorable environment for negotiations [13][14][18]. Market Outlook - There is a growing sentiment that the A-share market may be entering a bull market phase, with institutions like CITIC Securities predicting a significant upward trend in equity assets over the next year [20]. - The market is currently viewed as being in the early stages of a bull market, with a focus on structural growth rather than rapid increases [20][22]. Sector Focus - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that may benefit from current economic conditions, including electronics, machinery, textiles, chemicals, and agriculture, which are expected to see positive performance due to export substitution benefits [19][20]. - The upcoming earnings reports in July are anticipated to shift market focus towards sectors with improving performance, particularly large-cap stocks [24][25]. Performance Trends - Historical data indicates that large-cap stocks tend to outperform small-cap stocks during July, with a 60% probability of outperforming the overall market [24]. - Resource products and AI computing are highlighted as key performance indicators for the upcoming earnings season, with expectations of price increases in sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [25][28].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imports of stainless steel billets and hot-rolled sheets/strips from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia, effective from July 2025 for a period of five years [1] - The ongoing trade dispute has highlighted China's proactive stance in the context of US-China trade tensions, with the US facing difficulties in imposing tariffs on Chinese products [3][4] - The rise of trade protectionism amid global economic downturn poses significant challenges for Chinese products in international markets, with China firmly opposing unreasonable trade protectionist measures [4][6] Group 2 - China has shown a willingness to cooperate in resolving trade disputes, contrasting with the EU's protectionist measures, such as the anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles [6][8] - The extension of anti-dumping duties signals China's commitment to fair trade practices and adherence to rules, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect in international trade relationships [8] - The evolving dynamics suggest that China is no longer in a passive position but is actively setting the agenda and rules in trade negotiations, urging the EU to reconsider its approach [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical turning point of globalization, highlighted by the U.S. proposal for "reciprocal tariffs," which reflects a significant trade deficit and domestic demand issues in the U.S. and a mirrored situation in China with excess production capacity and insufficient domestic demand [2][8][67] - The U.S. has proposed a 10% tariff on all countries, with an additional 34% tariff specifically on China, indicating a strategic move to address trade imbalances [4][68] - The rapid escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China, reaching as high as 125%, signifies a volatile trade relationship that has substantial implications for global economic dynamics [6][11] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for a macroeconomic perspective to understand the complexities of trade relations, arguing that microeconomic experiences cannot adequately inform macroeconomic policies [10][12][20] - It highlights the importance of recognizing the interconnectedness of economic variables, where government spending can influence overall economic health and consumer behavior [52][56] - The analysis points out that the U.S. trade deficit is fundamentally linked to its domestic demand exceeding production capacity, necessitating imports to meet consumption needs [74][90][93] Group 3 - The article outlines the implications of the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, which allows the U.S. to maintain high levels of trade deficits without immediate repercussions [106][110] - It discusses the potential consequences of the U.S. pursuing a policy of reciprocal tariffs, which may lead to reduced dollar outflows and impact the country's ability to sustain its debt levels [153][159] - The article suggests that the U.S. may face significant challenges in maintaining its economic model if it continues down the path of protectionism, potentially leading to a debt crisis [161][162] Group 4 - The article posits that China's economic strategy must adapt in response to the U.S. shift towards protectionism, emphasizing the need to boost domestic demand to mitigate reliance on exports [139][141] - It argues that if China can effectively stimulate internal consumption and investment, it could enhance its position in the global economy amidst changing trade dynamics [142][146] - The analysis concludes that the future of globalization will depend significantly on China's policy choices and its ability to navigate the challenges posed by U.S. trade policies [165][168]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption this week brings uncertainty. The impact of tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and it's necessary to guard against the negative emotional impact of Trump's extreme pressure. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and the market expects positive signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - In the medium - term, real estate sales are seasonally rising at a low level, the service industry is structurally differentiated and seasonally warming up in summer. Consumption is boosted by fiscal subsidies, and the manufacturing's rush - to - export is ending, with a possible decline in the third quarter. Domestic anti - involution policies may reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a rebound in prices [4]. - Domestically, liquidity is generally loose, while overseas, it is marginally tightening. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from oversold levels. The domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, but the pressure of share unlocks remains [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a historically neutral to high level, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The stock market may rise in an oscillating manner in the third quarter. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures after sharp declines due to tariff policy shocks this week. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: Last week, US stocks led the rise, and the Hang Seng Technology Index led the decline. The performance order is Nasdaq > S&P 500 > CSI 300 > Shanghai Composite Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > German Stock Market > Nikkei 225 > STAR 50 > Hang Seng Technology [8]. - **Industry Performance**: Steel led the rise, and comprehensive finance led the decline. The order is Steel > Bank > Building Materials > Medicine... > Transportation > Comprehensive > Computer > Comprehensive Finance [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.22%, 0.3%, 0%, and - 0.05% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH significantly narrowing. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.05%, - 0.23%, - 0.27%, and - 0.31% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF, IC, and IM slightly widening. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) changed by - 0.05%, - 0.31%, - 0.44%, and - 0.48% respectively, with the long - term discounts of IF, IC, and IM significantly widening [15][16]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Stabilizing Funds**: Last week, margin trading funds flowed in 19.71 billion yuan, reaching 1.86 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.26%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 302.83 billion yuan, an increase of 13.89 billion yuan from last week, and the share was 199.171 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.48 billion shares from last week [25]. - **Industrial Capital**: In the first week of July, equity financing was 3.67 billion yuan, with 1 company. Among them, IPO financing was 640 million yuan, private placement was 0 yuan, and convertible bond financing was 3.03 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing declined significantly. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 90.83 billion yuan, an increase of 33.28 billion yuan from the previous week, remaining at the second - highest level this year [28]. 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 202.75 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase of 65.22 billion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan. After the end of the quarter, the open - market operations recovered liquidity. MLF had a net injection for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral [30]. - **Money Demand**: Last week, the net money demand for national debt was 19.993 billion yuan, for local debt was 4.361 billion yuan, and for other bonds was 34.787 billion yuan. The total net money demand in the bond market was 59.141 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [33]. - **Fund Price**: DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by - 27.4bp, - 9.9bp, and - 5.8bp respectively, reaching 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.31%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 5.9bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 8.1bp to 1.59%. The overall fund price was oscillating at a low level [36]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yield curve flattened. The central bank's liquidity recovery in the open market made the short - end stronger, and the credit spread between national debt and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 4th, the US 10 - year bond rate increased by 6.0bp to 4.35%, the inflation expectation increased by 4.0bp to 2.33%, and the real interest rate increased by 2.00bp to 2.02%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 6.40bp to - 270.78bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of July 3rd, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally recovered to 3.329 million square meters, but was still at a low level compared to the same period in 2019. Second - hand housing sales seasonally declined to the lowest level in the past seven years. The overall real estate market sales were weak, and more incremental policies were expected [46]. - **Service Industry Activity**: As of July 4th, the subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained high, with a daily average of 83.58 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a 32.5% increase compared to the same period in 2021. The service industry's economic activity seasonally recovered in summer. The Baidu Hundred - City Traffic Congestion Delay Index remained flat compared to last week, at a neutral level in the past three years [50]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Last week, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate declined across the board. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills decreased by 0.54%, that of asphalt increased by 0.2%, that of cement clinker enterprises decreased by 6.7%, and that of coke enterprises decreased by 0.18%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased by 0.45% compared to last week [52]. - **Goods Flow**: Both goods flow and passenger flow remained at relatively high levels. The number of civil aviation flights for summer tourism consumption increased strongly, while highway transportation was relatively weak, with limited growth, and there was a risk of a second seasonal decline from July to August [57]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks continued. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, it was necessary to guard against the risk of a second decline due to renewed trade frictions after the expiration of the 90 - day US tariff exemption [60]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US May non - farm payrolls report slightly exceeded expectations, but the structure implied a cooling signal. The US non - farm employment showed certain resilience, and the service industry PMI rebounded unexpectedly. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in 2025 was reduced to 2 times, with a cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the probability of a rate cut in July dropped to 4.7% [62][66]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium last week was 3.35%, a 0.06% decrease from last week, at the 68.8% percentile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.24%, a 0.21% decrease from last week, at the 24.3% percentile, indicating a low level of foreign - capital attractiveness. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 79.9%, 72.9%, 78.2%, and 60.3% percentiles in the past five years respectively, and the attractiveness of each index's valuation decreased marginally [69][74]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal rules, the stock market is in a seasonally oscillating and rising period with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. In general, the market is likely to rise in July. Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on pullbacks, short - term shorting on sharp rises of IF and IH, and medium - term long - term on sharp declines. This week, the market is greatly disturbed by the uncertainty of US tariff policies. If there are negative impacts, pay attention to going long on the growth style on sharp declines [77]. - **Financial Calendar**: This week's financial calendar includes China's June CPI and PPI data, and attention should be paid to whether prices have stabilized and rebounded. Overseas markets should focus on the US Treasury auctions and the progress of the Trump administration's tariff policy negotiations with other countries [79]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the trade conflict between China and the United States is a long-term struggle driven by conflicting national goals, with both sides unwilling to compromise, leading to a potential decades-long competition [1][12][32] - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy initiated by the Trump administration aimed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by imposing high tariffs on countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit, particularly China, which faced a 34% tariff based on its trade deficit ratio [5][12] - The underlying cause of the U.S. trade deficit is linked to the unique position of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, allowing the U.S. to create dollars with minimal cost, leading to a persistent trade deficit [7][8] Group 2 - The article discusses the "hollowing out" of the U.S. manufacturing sector due to the dollar's dominance, with manufacturing's share of GDP dropping from 24% in the 1970s to an estimated 10% in 2024, while finance and real estate sectors have grown [8][9] - The article highlights the increasing income inequality in the U.S., where the share of wages in GDP has declined over the past 30 years, exacerbating social tensions and contributing to the rise of populist sentiments [9][11] - The U.S. has two potential strategies to address the challenges posed by globalization: abandoning dollar hegemony in favor of a global currency and implementing domestic policies for wealth redistribution, but both options face significant political and ideological hurdles [11][12] Group 3 - The article outlines the "mirror imbalance" in the U.S.-China economic relationship, where China has a trade surplus and low consumption, while the U.S. has a trade deficit and high consumption, which has historically supported mutual economic growth [14][17] - China's economic challenges are rooted in insufficient effective demand, which is linked to income distribution issues, where a significant portion of national income does not translate into consumer spending [17][19] - The article proposes three strategies for China to address effective demand issues: a fundamental shift towards consumption through income redistribution, continued investment to stabilize growth, and the risk of falling into a cycle of overcapacity and low demand if no action is taken [20][22] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the economy and market in the context of U.S.-China competition, suggesting that China has more policy tools at its disposal to address demand issues [24][26] - The expected policy direction for China is to focus on investment-driven growth, particularly in infrastructure and real estate, to stimulate the economy in the short term [27][28] - The current state of China's stock, bond, and currency markets is characterized by bottom oscillation, with expectations of government support and stabilization measures influencing market dynamics [28][30]