Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound and short [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2][4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Pulp: Weak - side volatile [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Weak - side volatile [6] - Meal products: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: On - the - fence [8][10] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [10] - MEG: On - the - fence [10] - PR: On - the - fence [10] - PF: On - the - fence [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand relationship in the black - series commodities market is gradually loosening, with the iron ore market facing the impact of reduced demand and increased tariffs, and the coking coal and coke markets suffering from high supply and weak demand [2]. - The real - estate market remains in an adjustment period, which restricts the demand for glass [2]. - The stock index shows a certain degree of differentiation, and the market sentiment is affected by economic data and policies [4]. - The price of gold is influenced by multiple factors such as central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies [4]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The supply of logs is expected to decrease, while the demand remains relatively stable [6]. - The edible - oil market is in a weak - side volatile state due to factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption [6]. - The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships [6]. - The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile [8]. - The rubber market presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. - The polyester - related product markets have different supply - demand situations, and the prices are affected by cost and downstream demand [8][10]. Summary by Categories Black - Series Commodities - **Iron ore**: The global iron - ore shipping volume has rebounded, but the iron - water production has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand relationship is gradually loosening. The port inventory is still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water production. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to hold short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Some coal mines have stopped or reduced production, but the high - supply and weak - demand pattern is difficult to change. The coke enterprises' profits will be compressed, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The market mainly follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: Trump's tariff increase has weakened the market sentiment. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is poor. The total inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. The price is likely to fall rather than rise [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and the price has rebounded due to environmental - protection restrictions. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased for the first time in two months. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The market is affected by economic data such as CPI and PPI, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury - bond price has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies. The short - term price is affected by factors such as the US non - farm data and tariff policies. Attention should be paid to economic data and trade negotiations [4]. Forestry Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand has entered the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Logs**: The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: The Southeast Asian palm - oil production is in an increasing cycle, and the domestic edible - oil market is affected by factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Meal products**: The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships. Attention should be paid to weather and supply - arrival situations [6]. - **Live pigs**: The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile with limited downward space [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has decreased. The price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by polyester production reduction. The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the PXN spread still has support [8][10]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and the spot price follows the cost - end to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester devices [10]. - **MEG**: The short - to - medium - term supply - demand structure is good, and the price is supported. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load [10]. - **PR**: The raw - material support is weak, and the market is adjusted weakly and steadily [10]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be sorted warmly under the game of multiple factors [10].

Inflation Data Summary - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and recorded -0.1% year-on-year, remaining in the negative growth range[2] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies[2] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%[2] - Seasonal vegetable supply increased, leading to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, while fresh fruit prices rose by 3.3% due to supply constraints[13] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI continued to decline, recording -3.3% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month[3] - International commodity prices fell sharply, impacting sectors like oil and gas extraction, which saw a price drop of 5.6%[20] - Consumer goods prices showed some recovery, with clothing and durable goods prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively[20] - New energy sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries experienced a narrowing of price declines, with reductions of -12.1% and -5.0% respectively[21] Economic Outlook - Overall inflation data indicates a low operating level, with both CPI and PPI in negative growth ranges, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the economy[23] - Despite short-term pressure from food and energy prices, core CPI stabilization and structural improvements suggest that policy measures are gradually taking effect[23] - The monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and appropriate, potentially utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize domestic demand and market expectations[5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a continued impact of consumption-boosting policies [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor dragging down both the CPI and PPI, with energy prices decreasing by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month, significantly affecting the overall CPI decline [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in certain sectors [1] Group 2 - PPI data showed marginal improvement in terminal consumer demand, with life goods prices stabilizing and some manufacturing prices narrowing their year-on-year decline [2] - High-tech product demand is expanding, with prices in sectors like integrated circuit packaging and testing, aircraft manufacturing, and wearable smart devices increasing by 3.6%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Economic analysts predict a likely upward trend in the price index, with CPI expected to gradually recover and PPI showing signs of marginal improvement due to previous consumption-boosting policies [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from April [1][3] - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.13 percentage points of the total CPI decline [2] - The hospitality and tourism sectors saw price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to April [1][4] - The decrease in PPI was largely due to international factors, with significant price drops in the oil and gas extraction sector (5.6%) and refined petroleum products (3.5%) [4] - Domestic energy and raw material prices also saw a decline, particularly in the coal sector, which experienced a 3.0% drop due to seasonal demand [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The core CPI's mild recovery reflects improvements in supply and demand structures across various industries, supported by macroeconomic policies [3][6] - The overall economic resilience is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in CPI, with increased demand during the summer likely to boost service prices [3] - The PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, although it may take time to exit negative territory [6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [1][2] - Core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating resilience in domestic consumption [2][3] - Prices of gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable entertainment goods rose by 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8% respectively, while fuel and new energy vehicle prices fell by 4.2% and 2.8%, showing a narrowing decline [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [1][3] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to weak commodity prices and significant input price pressures, particularly in the coal, steel, and cement sectors due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][4] - Some sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing, saw price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.6% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for domestic prices suggests a likely moderate recovery in CPI, with food prices expected to remain stable and energy prices potentially rebounding [4] - PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, but it may take time to exit negative territory, influenced by external trade dynamics and domestic demand recovery [4] - Key areas to monitor include ongoing input price pressures, recovery in domestic demand, particularly in real estate, and trends in core consumption [4]

Group 1 - The core objective of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year is to promote a reasonable recovery of price levels, which will create space for fiscal measures to boost consumption and investment, as well as for further interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2][5] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative growth, primarily due to falling energy prices and lower food prices [1][3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in May, with the drop in production material prices contributing significantly to this decline [1][6][10] Group 2 - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year in May, indicating a slight improvement in underlying price levels [1][4][5] - The decline in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and eggs, has been a major factor in the overall CPI decrease, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year [3][4][6] - The implementation of policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, has provided some support to prices in certain sectors [4][5][8] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that while the PPI is expected to show marginal improvement, it is likely to remain in negative territory for some time due to external and internal pressures [8][9][10] - The demand for high-tech products is increasing, leading to price increases in sectors such as integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with low inflation levels exerting pressure on corporate operations and employment [5][6]

Group 1 - In May, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 3.3% year-on-year [1][7] - The primary factor for the decline in CPI is the continuous drop in energy prices, which decreased by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month [2][7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend for three consecutive months [4][8] Group 2 - Food prices experienced a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, influenced by seasonal factors and supply changes [3] - The hospitality and tourism sectors saw price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, driven by improved consumer demand and holiday activities [4] - The PPI's decline is attributed to both international factors, such as falling crude oil prices, and domestic factors, including seasonal drops in coal prices [7][8] Group 3 - The high-end equipment manufacturing sector is witnessing price increases, with significant rises in prices for integrated circuits and aircraft manufacturing [8] - The overall consumer demand is gradually recovering, supported by effective consumption-boosting policies [4][5] - The real estate market is still in recovery, affecting demand for household appliances and entertainment equipment, which saw a month-on-month price decline of 1.1% [5]

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight improvement in domestic economic resilience [1][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by seasonal factors and falling oil prices, while the core CPI's increase reflects a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Price Changes - In May, food prices decreased by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained stable; consumer goods prices fell by 0.5%, and service prices rose by 0.5% [2][4] - The industrial producer prices showed a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with significant contributions from the petroleum and coal industries, which saw price drops of 5.6% and 3% respectively [5][6] - The prices of durable consumer goods, such as gold jewelry and home textiles, increased by 40.1% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [3][4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - Future policies should focus on boosting consumption through active fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand and support price recovery [2][4] - Analysts expect a moderate recovery in prices throughout the year, driven by macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply structure [6]

6月9日，国家统计局公布了5月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）数据。数据显示，5月CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%。随着我国促消费、扩内需 各项政策持续发力，价格呈现出积极变化，尤其是核心CPI同比涨幅升至近一年来的最高点。其中，能源价格的下降成为拖累CPI下行的主要因 素，而金饰品、宾馆住宿等领域价格的上涨，则彰显出消费市场别样的活力。 能源价格下行拖累CPI表现 自3月起，CPI已连续3个月同比降幅为0.1%。从环比数据来看，5月CPI由涨转降。据国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，能源价格是拖累 CPI同比和环比表现的关键因素。从同比数据看，5月份能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分 点；从环比数据看，能源价格下降1.7%，影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。 北京商报记者发现，在"五一"小长假期间，热门城市的经济型酒店价格从平日的200—300元/晚涨至500—800元/晚，高端酒店的涨幅更是超过一 倍；旅游价格环比上涨0.8%，带动了景区门票、餐饮等相关领域的联动升温。 此外，金饰品价格涨幅尤为显著，同比上涨40. ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly better than the expected decrease of 0.2%[1] - The PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year, a decline from the previous value of 2.7% and worse than the expected 3.2%[1] Group 2: Core CPI Stabilization Features - Core commodity PPI rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to -1.4%, driven by improved demand and a moderation in tariff impacts[2] - The core commodity CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, supported by consumption policies and rising gold prices, which boosted jewelry prices by 40.1%[3] - Service CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5%, aided by increased holiday days in May, enhancing service demand[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Continued policy support and recovery in domestic demand are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but supply-side constraints remain a concern[5] - The ongoing "trade-in" policy may provide significant support to core commodity CPI and PPI, while abundant supply of bulk commodities and food could exert downward pressure on prices[5]