| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏强 | 宏观面改善叠加旺季预期，油价短线偏强。中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风 | | | | 险偏好上升；美国制裁与伊朗有业务往来的部分船只与炼厂；OPEC+扩产，油价上行空 | | | | 间有限。SC【485-500】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 油价走强 VS 自身供需面偏空，液化气盘整。成本端原油带动有限，对美关税降低后，进 | | | | 口丙烷成本降低；自身基本面相对偏空，库存累库，下游开工下降。PG【4380-4410】 | | L | 反弹 | 终端塑料制品出口预期好转，油价反弹，短期减仓反弹；供需双弱，产业链累库，基差 | | | | 走弱，多单可逐步止盈，不建议追高。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，反弹偏空。L【7200-7350】 | | PP | 反弹 | 短期跟随市场区间反弹，关税缓和，PDH 开工存上行预期，需求淡季，后续计划检修量 | | | | 偏少，基本面上行乏力，基差走弱。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，反弹偏空。PP【7100-7230】 | | PVC | 震荡 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of equal and respectful dialogue between China and the United States, particularly regarding trade negotiations and the fentanyl issue [2][3] - The Chinese government has reiterated that fentanyl is primarily a problem for the United States, and the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on China regarding this issue is seen as detrimental to bilateral cooperation in drug control [2] - The China-Latin America Forum is highlighted as a significant platform for mutual cooperation between China and Latin American countries, with China expressing support for participation from member states [4] Group 2 - The second phase of the Artificial Intelligence Capacity Building Seminar was launched in Beijing, with participation from nearly 40 countries and international organizations, aimed at promoting international cooperation in AI capacity building [5] - The Chinese government advocates for AI to be a public good that benefits humanity, emphasizing the need for equitable development and sharing of digital dividends among developing countries [5] - China aims to strengthen international collaboration in AI and is committed to providing public goods to the international community, ensuring that the benefits of the AI revolution are shared widely [5]

贵金属日报：中美贸易谈判推升风险偏好 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月13日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场金调银震，因中美贸易谈判结果超预期提升市场风险偏好，资金从黄金与美债等避险 资产流向股市等风险资产，此外美指和人民币双双走升亦抑制美元和人民币计价贵金属价格。最终黄金 2506合约收报3341.8美元/盎司，-3.06%；美白银2507合约收报于32.795美元/盎司，-0.36%。 SHFE 黄金2508主力合约收报772.28元/克，-2.01%；SHFE白银2506合约收8232元/千克，+1.02%。 source： 彭博,同花顺,南华研究 元/克 黄金：内外价差（进口利润） 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 -20 -10 0 10 20 source： wind,彭博,同花顺,南华研究 元/千克 白银：内外价差（进口利润） -1000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 COMEX黄金与金银比 source： 同花顺,南华研究,wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COME ...

Market Overview - The US-China trade negotiations have made substantial progress, leading to a general rise in global assets, with the A-share market opening high and the military industry sector remaining strong[3] - The Hang Seng Index surged nearly 700 points, while European markets reached new highs, and the Nasdaq entered a technical bull market with a 4.35% increase[3] Trade Agreement Impact - A temporary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs was reached, with US tariffs on China expected to drop to around 44%[5] - The agreement is anticipated to support exports to the US and ASEAN countries, bolstering foreign trade in the coming quarters[5] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 1,160 points (2.81%), the S&P 500 rose by 3.26%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.35%[8] - The Golden Dragon China Index surged by 5.4%, with major Chinese stocks like JD, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba seeing increases of 5.7% to 6.5%[8] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1%, reaching a two-week high, while gold prices fell by over 3% due to reduced market risk aversion[4][26] - The US dollar index increased by 1.44%, impacting gold prices negatively, which fell to $3,228 per ounce[26] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 2-year yield up by 11.9 basis points to 4.01% and the 10-year yield up by 9.2 basis points to 4.47%[28] - Asian investment-grade bond spreads narrowed by 5-10 basis points, with notable performance in Chinese investment-grade bonds[28] Sector Performance - In the US, technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors and internet sectors, are expected to benefit from the easing of trade tensions[8] - The A-share market saw significant gains in aerospace and military sectors, with stocks like AVIC and Chengfei Integration hitting their daily limits[15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Post - holiday, the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries remains weak, and some manufacturers continue to consume inventory. With the current off - season, lead prices may stay relatively weak. However, due to the improved market sentiment from the progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, lead prices may be relatively resistant to decline under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector. The recommended operation strategy is to buy low and sell high [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On May 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was $4.69 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead price rose by 225 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, waste white shells rose by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,995 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 42,622 lots, an increase of 13,667 lots. The holding volume was 33,309 lots, a decrease of 145 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,800 - 17,015 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,940 yuan/ton and closed at 16,920 yuan/ton, a 0.03% decline from the afternoon close. After the basis widened, some Henan suppliers' discount to the SHFE lead 2506 contract slightly expanded to 180 - 160 yuan/ton. Hunan smelters maintained a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SMM1 lead price, and traders' discount was about 50 yuan/ton. Market transactions improved compared to last Friday, with downstream buyers mainly for rigid demand and some enterprises restocking slightly [2] Inventory - On May 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 47,000 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week. As of May 12, the LME lead inventory was 251,800 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [2]

5月份，增量政策可能不多，但储备政策不少，政策定力仍然很强，目标是应对关税的冲击。因此，市 场在度过业绩风险后仍然会关注科技成长主题。内需相关板块仍会是国内政策的首要着力点，低利率环 境下业绩稳定的高股息板块仍有配置价值。除此以外，在可能出现的关税缓和过程中，那些品牌力强、 定价能力强、替代难度大的公司有望迎来估值的修复。 谭小兵：看好有边际变化的成长股 4月份市场呈现V字形走势，内需与红利好于成长股。展望5月份，进入业绩真空期，市场对指数填补之 后能否继续上攻还是存在分歧，个人相对还是偏乐观：一方面是国内政策会逐步兑现；另一方面中美谈 判或拉开序幕，这有利于修复市场的风险偏好。方向上看好有边际变化的成长股。 回顾4月，美国"对等关税"来袭，全球市场剧烈波动，就中国资产来看，月内A股和港股主要指数收 跌。进入5月，尽管外部不确定性因素依然存在，但中美关税谈判窗口有望来临，国内一揽子增量政策 也在加速落地，为国内股市稳定发展带来有力支撑。 展望后市，市场将会如何演绎？哪些投资机会值得关注？一起来看看长城基金权益基金经理们的观点吧 ~ 杨建华：持续关注关税政策 展望5月，关税政策及中美贸易谈判仍将会成为左右市场的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Short - term bullish due to improved macro - environment and peak - season expectations, but upside limited [1][2][3] - LPG: Weakening due to reduced oil - price rebound momentum and lower import costs [1][5][6] - L: Sideways with weak supply and demand, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][8][10] - PP: Sideways with short - term market - sentiment - driven fluctuations, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][11][13] - PVC: Sideways with weak fundamentals, short - term wait - and - see [1][14][16] - PX: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, but may correct [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Bullish in the short - term with cost - driven fluctuations, may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [1][20][22] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, may correct [1][24][26] - Glass: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways with macro - fundamental game [1][28][29] - Soda ash: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways [1][30] - Methanol: Bearish with a loose supply - demand pattern and weak cost support, bearish on rallies [1][32] - Urea: Bullish in the short - term with export - policy support, but watch for short - selling opportunities [1] - Asphalt: Bullish in the short - term with oil - price rebound and increased downstream开工率, but high valuation [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.88%, Brent up 1.64%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+增产利空 released, Sino - US trade progress and peak - season expectations boost prices, but OPEC+扩产 limits upside. Supply may decrease in Iraq and CPC exports. Demand is expected to increase globally but decline in India. US commercial crude inventory decreased while strategic reserve increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, sell bull - spread options. SC focus range is [475 - 495] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 12, PG main contract closed at 4362 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: Oil - price rebound weakens, import costs drop, and fundamentals are bearish with increased inventory and decreased PDH开工率 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term bearish as it follows oil prices. Short - term, short with a light position. PG focus range is [4300 - 4350] [7] L - **Market Review**: L09 main contract rose 1.6%. L主力持仓量 decreased slightly, and L仓单量 remained unchanged [9] - **Basic Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and import windows are mostly closed. Demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. Sino - US trade progress improves sentiment, but supply - demand is weak and inventory accumulates. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. L focus range is [7080 - 7180] [10] PP - **Market Review**: PP09 main contract fell 0.3%. PP主力持仓量 increased, and PP仓单量 decreased slightly [12] - **Basic Logic**: A new PP device has been put into operation, and future PDH device commissioning is to be watched. Tariff easing may increase PDH开工率, but it's the demand off - season. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. PP focus range is [7000 - 7080] [13] PVC - **Market Review**: V09 main contract fell 0.7%. PVC仓单 increased [15] - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January. Supply is high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Exports may weaken. Registration extension leads to increased仓单, and there is no upward drive. Watch for spring - maintenance and macro - policy changes [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term participation. V focus range is [4700 - 4830] [16] PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, PX spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged. PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have various maintenance and restart situations. Demand from PTA devices is weak. Inventory is high but improving. May fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focus range is [6620, 6750] [19] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 9, PTA spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases. Short - term, it follows cost fluctuations and is bullish, but may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focus range is [4680, 4780] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance eases supply pressure. Import is higher than expected. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases slightly. Short - term, it is bullish but may correct [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focus range is [4280, 4400] [27] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the decline of the futures market slowed. Shahe basis widened, and仓单 increased [28] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The market faces supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and inventory accumulation. Price decline is limited, but recovery depends on policy effects and supply reduction [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focus range is [1020, 1060]. Watch the 5 - day moving average. Exit short positions if it breaks through [29] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices increased, and the futures market fluctuated. Basis fluctuated slightly, and仓单 and effective forecasts decreased [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to device maintenance, but supply is still excessive as开工率 remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. Cost center moves down [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focus range is [1300, 1350] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, methanol spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Methanol main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices restart and imports are expected. Demand is weak, with MTO开工率 at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and cost support is weak [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focus range is [2250, 2310] [33]

信达证券指出，尽管长端利率短期面临扰动，但考虑债市面临的环境相较于4月初关税措施落地前仍然更加有利，我们认为10年国债调整的上限可能也就在 1.7%附近；拉长时间维度来看，考虑经济进入旺季尾声短期面临回落压力，外需下行对基本面的影响尚未完全显现，货币政策仍处于宽松周期的状态，债 券市场的趋势可能并未改变。因此在目前状态下，我们认为5月债市仍有望在波折中前行。 30年国债ETF博时紧密跟踪上证30年期国债指数，上证30年期国债指数从上海证券交易所上市的国债中，选取符合中国金融期货交易所30年期国债期货近月 合约可交割条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映沪市相应期限国债的整体表现。 规模方面，30年国债ETF博时最新规模达64.26亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，30年国债ETF博时近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得7691.27万元净流入，合计"吸金"1.52亿元，日均净流入达5063.03万 元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时前一交易日融资净买额达1318.14万元，最新融资余额达6484.67万元。 截至5月12日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨15.50%，指数债券型基金排名3/37 ...

从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-5-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美贸易谈判取得进展，关税大幅降低，权益市场走强，贵金属走弱，铜价冲高后有所回落，昨日伦 铜收涨 0.67%至 9502 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77820 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 10253 至 190750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 43.1%，Cash/3M 升水 23.9 美元/吨。 ...

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖，矿价低位回升 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪回暖，贴水矿价强势上涨，但铁矿石供需格局并未改善，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石需求维持 高位，给予矿价支撑，但钢材需求面临季节性走弱，难以承接高铁水局面，需求或将触顶，利好效应 趋弱。与此同时，港口到货和海外矿商发运延续回落，但降幅不大，相应的内矿供应也在回升，铁矿 石供应高位运行。总之，中美贸易谈判取得实质性性进展，市场情绪回暖，驱动矿价低位回升，但需 求趋于触顶，且供应在回升，基本面预期走弱，上行空间谨慎乐观，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日 ...