Core Viewpoints - The current market is experiencing a phase of consolidation rather than stagnation, with expectations for future upward movement as economic recovery and corporate earnings improve [2][9][10] - The market is characterized by a structural trend, with certain sectors showing potential for independent performance due to policy support and earnings growth [5][9] Market Overview - On the recent trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index showed relative strength, while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes declined, indicating a divergence among the three major indexes [2][11] - The total trading volume across both exchanges decreased to 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [6][11] Sector Performance - The electricity sector saw significant gains, driven by the successful operation of a major thermal power plant and a favorable coal price environment, leading to positive earnings growth for many companies in this sector [7] - The cross-border payment sector also experienced an uptick, supported by the central bank's initiatives to enhance cross-border payment systems between mainland China and Hong Kong [8] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. Stocks with better-than-expected interim performance, focusing on those with anticipated earnings improvements [3][10] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a cautionary note on the need for thorough fundamental analysis to avoid overvalued stocks [3][10] 3. Rebound opportunities in sectors like new energy and brokerage firms, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [3][10]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still within a downward trend [1] - The production and new orders indices are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production and improved demand [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion above the critical point [1] Group 2 - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in the sector [1] - The service industry business activity index is at 50.1%, indicating stable conditions, with some sectors experiencing rapid growth while others show weakened activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated expansion in production and business activities [1] Group 3 - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggests increasing regulatory intensity and maintaining ample liquidity to support key sectors [1] - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan, continuing excess renewals for four consecutive months [1] - The monetary policy in the second half of the year is expected to focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with MLF likely to continue increasing [1]

Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周美股、A 股领涨全球股指，其中纳指、标普 500 指数再创新高，沪指一度逼近 3500 点。行业板 块方面，煤炭、有色、建材（光伏）等周期板块在"反内卷"政策预期下表现突出，银行指数在上周五大跌后再 度回升，创历史新高。此外，美越贸易协议和中美贸易关系缓和交易下，部分消费电子、纺织服饰等板块也有表 现。外汇方面，美元指数持续走低，弱美元下全球商品价格普遍走强，国内螺纹钢、双焦价格也从底部反弹。 ·市场展望：下半年央行降准降息仍有空间，A 股稳中向上趋势不变。短期来看，全球市场定价核心在于 7 月 9 日 美国与各国贸易协定进展，此前美国总统特朗普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限，但此种表态也可能是一种谈 判策略，美国对部分国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增长动能强劲，全年经济增速目标达成的压力减 轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终结果如何，出口对增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy has driven an increase in steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for value recovery in the steel sector [3][4]. - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 5.27%, compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index [11]. - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector saw a weekly increase of 5.27%, outperforming the market, with specific segments like long products rising by 8.32% and flat products by 6.95% [3][11]. - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4085 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.44 tons but a year-on-year increase of 1.41 tons [3][26]. Supply Data - As of July 4, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.3%, down 0.54 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization was at 51.1%, down 3.45 percentage points [3][26]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.06 thousand tons [3][26]. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products increased to 8.853 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 5.41 thousand tons [3][35]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 107 thousand tons, up 0.81 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting an increase of 8.23% [3][35]. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products rose to 9.161 million tons, an increase of 9.62 thousand tons week-on-week, but down 29.01% year-on-year [3][42]. - Factory inventory decreased to 4.238 million tons, down 9.72 thousand tons week-on-week, and down 13.43% year-on-year [3][42]. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,390.0 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 45.42 CNY/ton [3][49]. - The comprehensive index for special steel decreased to 6,576.5 CNY/ton, down 14.61 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][49]. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 187 CNY, an increase of 42.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][58]. - The average iron water cost was 2,148 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.0 CNY/ton [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [4].

Group 1 - The China Iron and Steel Association will hold its 11th council meeting soon, with specific agenda details not disclosed [1] - As of mid-June, the inventory of steel products among key steel enterprises increased by 420,000 tons to 16.21 million tons, but decreased by 140,000 tons compared to the same period last month [1] - The operating rate of 22 H-beam production enterprises rose by 3.23 percentage points to 70.97%, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 56.83% [1] Group 2 - The steel industry is experiencing a "not-so-slow" off-peak season, with daily molten iron output reaching 2.4229 million tons, an increase of 23,500 tons year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive price index for ordinary steel decreased by 0.49% week-on-week to 3,344.6 yuan per ton, while the profit per ton of rebar remains at a substantial level of 145 yuan [1] - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.72% week-on-week to 9.065 million tons, while inventory at factories increased by 1.82% to 4.335 million tons [1] Group 3 - The funding availability rate for construction sites slightly improved to 59.11%, and with the promotion of "stabilizing growth" policies, demand for steel in real estate and infrastructure sectors is expected to marginally improve [1] - Current molten iron production remains high, indicating significant improvement potential for ordinary steel companies' performance, and the industry is likely to see value recovery [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the significant issuance of local government bonds in China, amounting to 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily aimed at "debt replacement" and supporting infrastructure investment [1][2] - The issuance of refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts reached nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of about 90%, while new special bonds issued amounted to 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the annual quota [1][2] - The urgency of "debt replacement" is highlighted as the primary task for local governments, with 42% of new special bonds in June allocated for this purpose, reflecting the pressing need to address existing debt issues [3][4] Group 2 - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with plans for approximately 1.69 trillion yuan in new bonds, including 1.47 trillion yuan in new special bonds [6] - The focus on "debt replacement" has somewhat constrained the issuance of new local government bonds, impacting project initiation [6][7] - The government is also exploring innovative uses of special bonds, such as funding investment guidance funds to support strategic emerging industries [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for the cement industry to address overproduction and promote "anti-involution" and "steady growth" through regulatory measures [1][2] - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 highlighted the importance of legally regulating low-price competition among enterprises and guiding them to enhance product quality [2] - The China Cement Association issued the "Work Opinion" to further promote high-quality development in the cement industry, focusing on aligning registered production capacity with actual production capacity [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the limitations of peak-shifting production, which has been used since the 13th Five-Year Plan to balance supply and demand but faces challenges during rapid demand declines [3] - The implementation of policies to address overproduction is expected to accelerate the exit of excess capacity, with actual clinker production capacity projected to decrease from over 2.1 billion tons to 1.7 billion tons if strictly enforced [3] - The industry's profitability is expected to improve due to a better supply-demand balance, with current coal prices providing additional room for profit recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a strong awareness of "anti-involution," with leading companies collaborating to maintain prices, and the decline in coal prices could enhance profitability once cement prices recover [4] - The industry is rated as "positive," with recommendations to focus on companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement [4]

Macro Economy - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support in stabilizing growth in the second half of the year, with a focus on consumption, real estate, and monetary policy adjustments [5][19][20] - The industrial profits of major enterprises decreased by 9.1% year-on-year in May, indicating challenges in effective demand and industrial product prices [4][18] Asset Allocation - The recommended order of asset allocation is stocks > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a bullish outlook on stocks due to anticipated policy implementations [5][12] - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, a underweight position in bonds, and a neutral stance on commodities and currencies [3][12] Stock Market Performance - A-shares showed a positive trend, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.95% and the CSI 300 futures increasing by 2.83% [11][12] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with technology and defense industries leading the gains [35][36] Bond Market Insights - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.65%, indicating a slight upward trend in bond yields [11][41] - The report notes a divergence in the bond market, with credit spreads and term spreads showing slight increases [41][43] Commodity Market Analysis - Commodity prices experienced fluctuations, with coking coal futures rising by 4.64% and iron ore contracts increasing by 1.64% [11][12] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor fiscal policies related to commodity markets [5][12] Currency and Forex Trends - The report indicates that the yield on money market funds is expected to fluctuate around 2%, reflecting a cautious outlook on currency investments [3][12] - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate is supported by the economic fundamentals, allowing for wide fluctuations [3][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience during the off-peak season, with a notable increase in iron and steel production, indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][4] - The report highlights that despite challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [4][6] - The report suggests that certain steel companies are undervalued and presents structural investment opportunities, especially for high-margin special steel enterprises and leading companies with strong cost control [4][6] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 2.16%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing increases of 2.64% and 3.70% respectively [3][11] - The average daily pig iron production reached 2.4229 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [25][40] Supply Data - As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.8%, with a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.703 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [25][24] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products decreased to 8.799 million tons, a decline of 0.49% week-on-week [33][29] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders increased slightly, indicating stable demand in that segment [33] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 9.065 million tons, down 0.72% week-on-week [40][37] - Factory inventory increased to 4.335 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 1.82% [40][38] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel decreased to 3344.6 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.49% week-on-week [46] - The comprehensive index for special steel fell to 6591.1 yuan/ton, down 0.29% week-on-week [46] Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 145 yuan, a decrease of 6.45% week-on-week [54] - The average cost of pig iron was reported at 2138 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline [54] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [4][70]