综合来看，当前铝供给端有增量但空间受限。淡季及高铝价致需求趋弱，社库累积抑制铝价上涨幅度。 但市场情绪高涨，沪铝随板块上行。鉴于铝明年供应约束强，预计铝价仍被看好，建议偏多操作，注意 控制仓位。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约开盘跳水后震荡拉升；开盘价报22350元/吨，盘中最高22980元/ 吨，最低22110元/吨，昨日结算22385元/吨，尾盘收至22570元/吨，涨185元，涨幅0.83%；沪铝主力月 2602合约全天成交量618612手增加264975手，持仓量289226手增加10415手。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格22470-22510元/吨，涨470元，贴水210-贴水170，跌5元； 广东现货22375-22425元/吨，涨460元，贴水305-贴水255，跌15元；上海地区22460-22500元/吨，涨470 元，贴水220-贴水180，跌5元。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 宏观层面，美联储降息预期持续、油价反弹，12月26日国家发展改革委产业发展司发布《大力推动传统 产业优化提升》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals, particularly silver and gold, is attributed to geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and low market liquidity, leading to significant price fluctuations and potential investment opportunities [6][7]. Group 1: Silver Market - On December 29, spot silver prices initially surged by 5.85% to exceed $83, but later experienced a sharp decline, trading at $80.33 per ounce by 11:58 AM [1]. - The silver price has increased approximately 180% this year, driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [7]. - Concerns over a supply shortage in the silver market are growing, with the market facing a structural deficit for five consecutive years, leading to rapidly depleting physical inventories [7]. Group 2: Gold Market - Concurrently, spot gold prices saw a decline, dipping below $4480 before recovering to $4516.17 per ounce by 11:58 AM [3]. - The gold market has also experienced significant price movements, with recent trends indicating a strong correlation with geopolitical tensions and market liquidity conditions [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The precious metals market witnessed a broad rally on December 26, with COMEX silver futures soaring over 11% and spot silver rising more than 10%, alongside similar increases in palladium and platinum [5]. - UBS has noted that the short-term risks in precious metal trading have increased, particularly as gold prices reach new highs, which may lead to profit-taking by short-term investors [7]. - To mitigate market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued notifications on December 26 to encourage risk control and outlined trading margin requirements and price limits for the upcoming New Year period [7].

Market Overview - The precious metals market, including gold, silver, and platinum, experienced a significant surge at the end of 2025, with gold reaching a historic high, silver surpassing $80, platinum hitting record levels, and palladium exceeding $2000, marking a three-year peak [1][5]. - This surge was driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar, and fluctuations in physical demand [1][5]. - The remarkable performance of gold, silver, and platinum has ignited investor enthusiasm, while the market outlook for 2026 remains filled with both opportunities and challenges [1][5]. Gold Technical Analysis - The overall outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on waiting for adjustments to enter long positions, as the primary trend continues to show strength [6][7]. - A significant price jump was observed at the market opening, followed by a decline, indicating potential market fatigue; a drop below 4336 could shift the market from strong to high volatility [6][7]. - Key resistance levels for this week are identified at 4450 and 4430, with a potential upward target of 4550 if the market breaks through [6][7]. Silver Technical Analysis - Silver demonstrated strong upward momentum last week, closing with a bullish candlestick pattern, but faced a pullback after reaching above $83 [8]. - There remains a bullish demand for silver, but caution is advised due to potential profit-taking in the short term [8]. - Key support levels for silver are set at 74.5 and 72.5, with recommendations to consider long positions at these points [8].

欧洲早盘交易时段黄金期货微跌至每金衡盎司4500美元下方。12月以来贵金属持续走强，月初开盘价为 4274.80美元/盎司。纽约市场期货下跌1.2%至4497美元/盎司。避险需求与美联储降息预期共同支撑金 价，降息通常利好黄金等无息资产。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 欧洲早盘交易时段黄金期货微跌至每金衡盎司4500美元下方。12月以来贵金属持续走强，月初开盘价为 4274.80美元/盎司。纽约市场期货下跌1.2%至4497美元/盎司。避险需求与美联储降息预期共同支撑金 价，降息通常利好黄金等无息资产。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Group 1: Market Movements - Palladium prices fell sharply by 10.00%, currently trading at $1712.93 per ounce [1] - Platinum futures hit the limit down again with a 10% drop, reported at 634.35 yuan per gram, before rebounding to 659.65 yuan per gram, narrowing the decline to 6.41% [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Spot silver dropped by 2.98%, currently at $76.59 per ounce, after experiencing a volatile trading session with a peak of over 5% increase to $83 per ounce, followed by a drop below $75, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $9 [2] - Silver prices have surged nearly 180% this year, driven by supply tightness, designation as a critical mineral by the U.S., strong industrial demand, geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Silver Market Valuation - The current market capitalization of silver is approximately $4.485 trillion, ranking it as the third-largest asset globally, behind gold and Nvidia [3] - Silver's market capitalization recently surpassed that of Google, marking a significant milestone in its valuation [3] Group 4: Fund Performance and Market Reactions - The Guotai Silver LOF experienced significant volatility, hitting the limit down before quickly rebounding, with a closing price of 2.746 yuan and an 8.8% increase, resulting in a premium rate of 34.06% [3][4] - The fund's trading price has shown extreme fluctuations, with premium rates reaching 68.16% during a three-day limit-up period, followed by a drop to below 30% [4] - Guotai Ruijin Fund has issued multiple risk warnings and implemented measures such as trading halts and purchase limits to cool the market, indicating that the fund's market price significantly exceeds its net asset value [4]

摘要12月29日亚洲时段，贵金属集体走强。现货黄金上涨0.39%，最高触及4549.44美元，距历史高点仅 一步之遥；白银表现尤为抢眼，续涨逾6%，最高至83.94美元，刷新历史纪录并轻松突破80美元关口。 铂金小幅冲高0.66%，触及2467美元；钯金上周五大涨14%，周一盘初再跳涨逾4%，刷新三年高点至 2003.83美元。贵金属全线走高，既受工业需求回暖提振，也因地缘政治风险升温激发避险与配置热 情，市场热度持续攀升。 12月29日亚洲时段，贵金属集体走强。现货黄金上涨0.39%，最高触及4549.44美元，距历史高点仅一步 之遥；白银表现尤为抢眼，续涨逾6%，最高至83.94美元，刷新历史纪录并轻松突破80美元关口。铂金 小幅冲高0.66%，触及2467美元；钯金上周五大涨14%，周一盘初再跳涨逾4%，刷新三年高点至2003.83 美元。贵金属全线走高，既受工业需求回暖提振，也因地缘政治风险升温激发避险与配置热情，市场热 度持续攀升。 【要闻速递】 全球局势动荡推升市场波动，委内瑞拉紧张升级与美国联手打击尼日利亚极端组织伊斯兰国，令不确定 性加剧。投资者纷纷转向金属等防御性资产避险。 中国白银市场因估 ...

国内金店黄金价格在上周六出现下跌后，今日继续呈现回调或企稳态势。从具体报价看，市场主流价格普遍回落至1403- 1408元/克区间，较近期高点有所下调。上海中国黄金报价小幅上调至1312元/克，与市场最高价之间的价差缩小至96元/克左 右。 今日黄金回收价格不跌反升，不同品牌回收价差也较大，以下为部分金店回收参考价： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年12月29日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 1001. 40 | 元/克 | | 菜自黄金 | 977. 50 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 967. 20 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 977.00 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 1007.00 | | 元/克 | 说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 上周五现货黄金盘中最高涨至4549.57美元/盎司，再创历史新高，最终收涨1.19%，报4533.34美元/盎司。今日现货黄金有回 落趋势，截至发稿，金价暂报4514.55美元/盎司，跌幅0.39%。 上周五金价的大涨主要还是市场对美联储明年多次降息的预期 ...

日内可关注美国11月成屋签约销售指数月率数据，市场预期低于前值而利好金价，再加上临近元旦假 期，当周重点数据及事件较少，故此整体走势上，将大概率保持强势状态运行。短期将继续受美联储降 息预期以及加剧避险需求的地缘政治紧张局势提振。 月线级别，金价目前连续反弹走强，打消了10月的长上影见顶形态的看空预期，另外，12月走势在尾部 时段再度走强，有所突破趋势线压力，上行空间进一步打开，如持稳此动力收阳，后市有望走出新的牛 市行情。冲击5500-6000美元区域。 日图；金价近期稳步上行，暂未收取明显的见顶信号回撤力度，短期将保持强势状态波动，继续看涨新 高即可。下方则关注5日均线或10日均线仍是看涨入场机会。 本周周一(12月29日)：国际黄金开盘短暂走强后转弱回落走低，受上周的看涨动力延续性推动，但由于 地缘局势的缓和而遇阻回撤；白银则高开1.2美金后强势走强一度触及83.88美元也一度表现回撤，今年 累计上涨超过183%。远远强于黄金的72%。短期来看，受到年尾总结和获利了结调整的影响，多头动 力或有触顶回落走低的需求，但方向上，仍以看涨上行的观点不变。 一方面，美元指数仍处于看空前景中，另一方面，降息前景仍然 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 19,478, with an opening price of 18,210 and a current price of 19,892, reflecting a 9.83% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 19,998, while the lowest was 18,027, indicating a bullish short-term trend in silver futures [1] Group 2 - US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that a peace agreement for Ukraine is imminent, although key issues remain unresolved, which may reduce the appeal of safe-haven assets like silver [2] - Market analysts remain optimistic about silver prices, predicting that if the next Federal Reserve chair signals a more dovish stance, silver prices could challenge the $100 mark by 2026 due to rate cut expectations, strong industrial demand, and supply shortages [2] - The Shanghai silver market continues to show a strong upward trend, with premiums expanding to 1,800 yuan per kilogram, and the main contract is expected to test the 20,000 yuan mark [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, surpassing Apple's market capitalization to become the third-largest asset globally, only behind gold and Nvidia [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, silver experienced extreme volatility, initially rising over 5% to reach $83 per ounce before dropping below $75, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $9 [1]. - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased nearly 180%, driven by supply constraints, strong industrial demand, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Market Capitalization - Silver's current market capitalization stands at $4.485 trillion, while gold leads with $31.719 trillion, and Nvidia follows closely at $4.638 trillion [3]. - Silver recently surpassed Google in market capitalization, indicating its rapid ascent in the global asset rankings [4]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts are divided on silver's future price trajectory, with optimistic views suggesting it could exceed $100 next year, while pessimistic views warn of a potential price correction [4]. - UBS has highlighted increased short-term risks in precious metal trading, suggesting that profit-taking by investors could lead to heightened volatility [4]. - Analysts from Capital Economics predict that silver prices may decline to around $42 by the end of next year, citing unsustainable price levels [4].