张尧浠：黄金仍受多重利好助力、5000美元仍只是心理关口 上交易日周四(1月22日)：国际黄金短暂回调后，再度反弹拉升，刷新历史高点，并持稳收阳，稳于本周突破趋势线压力后的动力，这暗示后市看涨前景 加大，新的牛市空间已经打开，后市将迈向更高位置和难以想象的高点。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4832.67美元/盎司，先行走低录得日内低点4772.18美元，之后反弹回升，欧盘横盘整理在4815-4836美元区间之内，美盘时 段再度拉升走强，一直延续到盘尾触及日内高点4940.31美元，最终持稳收于4936.01美元，日振幅168.13美元，收涨103.34美元，涨幅2.14%。 影响上，亚市早盘受到特朗普淡化对格陵兰岛和伊朗的威胁，以及撤回关税威胁，一度走低，但市场买盘动力强烈，美元的走低则限制了金价调整，另 外，美盘时段，特朗普警告：若欧洲抛售美国资产，将采取"重大报复"等等，再度增强了市场避险需求，以及加大了市场的不确定性，同时还受益于地缘 政治紧张局势持续、美元指数下跌以及市场对美联储将在今年下半年进行两次降息的预期共同推动；令金价重获吸引力。 展望今日周五(1月23日)：国际黄金亚市早盘小幅偏强波动，多头 ...

中新经纬 23日早盘，现货黄金持续拉涨，盘中最高突破4967美元/盎司。截至发稿，报4946.100美元/盎司，涨 0.21%。 当地时间22日尾盘，现货黄金大幅反弹，突破4900美元/盎司，刷新历史新高，日内涨超2%。本周，现 货黄金价格已涨超300美元/盎司，超7%；月内涨幅超14%，超600美元/盎司。 与此同时，国内部分品牌金饰克价也有大幅上涨，创历史新高。中新经纬23日查询发现，老庙黄金报价 1548元/克，单日上涨52元/克；周生生报价1545元/克，单日上涨53元/克；老凤祥为1538元/克，单日上 涨43元/克。 | | | W これ | | --- | --- | --- | | 甄选之礼 | 产品欣赏 | 关于老庙 | | 브랜 | DRAM (VEGILD) | | --- | --- | | 是金饰品 | 1548.00 | | 铂金饰品 | 860.00 | | 工艺金条 | 1373.00 | | | 周生生 (how Sang Sang | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周生生 PROMESSA | MINTYGR ...

ll 报 2026年1月23日 Wind. SMM. 广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读招生居瑞免责声明 已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证 表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士．版权归广发期货所有． 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。 如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 现日报 周敏波 70015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 100070 | 100060 | +10.00 | 0.01% | 元/肥 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -170 | -180 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 100310 | 99820 | +490.00 | 0.49% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1 ...

华西证券指出，参考历史规律，2026年金价涨幅或介于10%-35%区间。受美联储降息预期、美元信用不 稳、美国中期选举以及地缘政治不确定性的影响，金价有望进一步上涨。不过从历史经验来看，黄金经 过2025年强劲的上涨后，2026年涨幅可能有所收敛。金价年度涨幅超过30%的情况，次年涨幅相比前一 年平均下降约20%。根据历史年度涨幅测算，中性情景下，参考1970-2025年中位数、75%分位数涨幅和 90%分位数涨幅，2026年金价可能分别上涨7%、23%和34%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising gold prices are driven by increased central bank purchases, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to a renewed "gold rush" in the market. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks are increasingly buying gold as a zero-credit-risk asset, which is not affected by sanctions or monetary policy, serving as a "safety cushion" for sovereign assets. In 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 1,136 tons, the second highest on record. The People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 14 consecutive months, with countries like Poland and Brazil also ramping up their gold purchases [3][4][5]. Group 2: Economic Factors - There are expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026, prompting investors to replace a portion of U.S. bonds with gold [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical issues, such as the Greenland dispute, U.S.-EU tariff threats, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle Eastern instability, have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being a primary beneficiary [4][5].

1月22日，随着美国总统特朗普在欧洲关税与格陵兰问题上的立场明显缓和，全球风险偏好回升，黄金 自接近4900美元的历史高位出现回调。与此同时，美联储降息预期被进一步削弱，美元获得支撑，对金 价形成短线压制。不过，在关键美国经济数据公布前，市场保持谨慎，黄金下行空间暂时受到限制，中 期多头结构仍然完好。 技术面：黄金短线回调仍处于强势上涨后的正常修正阶段。100小时均线继续上行，并位于价格下方， 约在4720美元附近，构成重要动态支撑。只要金价维持在该均线之上，整体短期趋势仍偏向多头。 从波段结构看，自4530美元低点至4889美元高点的回升过程中，23.6%斐波那契回撤位位于4800美元附 近，为第一道支撑；38.2%回撤位位于4750美元附近，若该位置失守，可能加大调整幅度。 指标方面，MACD仍位于零轴下方，但绿柱持续收敛，显示空头动能减弱；RSI回落至46附近，处于中 性区域，为后续方向选择保留空间。整体来看，只要未有效跌破38.2%回撤位，金价仍处于高位整理而 非趋势反转。 日内支撑：4815.4785.4742等附近；日内阻力：4864.4873.4880.4900等附近； 黄金策略提示：（稳健为主 ...

UNforex 1月22日讯（分析师 Simon）随着美欧关系中的紧张因素出现阶段性缓释，全球金融市场在周 三后半段迎来情绪修复。美国总统特朗普表示，美方已就「格陵兰岛未来协议框架」与北约方面达成共 识，并确认不会推进原定于2月1日生效、针对八个欧洲国家的新一轮关税安排。相关表态削弱了此前市 场关注的跨大西洋摩擦风险，风险资产获得支撑，资金回流迹象逐步显现。 受此影响，美股周三显著反弹，三大股指单日涨幅均超过1%，部分修复前一交易日的回落。周四早 盘，美国股指期货延续温和回升态势，市场整体风险偏好维持在相对平稳区间。 随着美欧摩擦缓和、地缘风险阶段性降温，避险需求有所回落，对金价形成一定压制；同时，美元企稳 也限制了黄金的上行动能。不过，市场对美联储年内仍可能进一步降息的预期，继续为无息资产提供中 期支撑。尽管部分美联储官员强调，在通胀持续向2%目标回落之前并不急于调整政策，但交易层面仍 在计入年内累计降息50个基点的可能性，使黄金空头操作相对谨慎。 即将公布的美国PCE通胀数据与GDP修正值，预计将成为短期市场定价的重要参考变量。相关数据不仅 可能影响美元指数运行方向，也将对黄金在高位区间内的走势选择产生关 ...

Group 1 - The global market's risk appetite is gradually recovering after a temporary easing of tensions in US-EU relations, with US President Trump announcing a preliminary consensus with NATO on the "Greenland future agreement framework" [1] - The announcement has reduced the tail risk of transatlantic friction, leading to a rebound in US stocks, with all three major indices rising over 1% [1] - The US dollar index is stabilizing around 99.00, supported by a cooling of the previously heated "sell US assets" trade as geopolitical tensions ease [1] Group 2 - Australia's December employment data significantly exceeded market expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, leading to a strengthening of the Australian dollar [2] - The euro is consolidating below 1.1700 as the market focuses on the upcoming European Central Bank monetary policy meeting minutes and the January consumer confidence index from the European Commission [2] - The Japanese yen is stabilizing around 159.00 as investors await the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are maintaining a high-level range after retreating from historical highs, with spot gold briefly approaching $4890 per ounce before pulling back [3] - The easing of US-EU tensions and a reduction in geopolitical risks have diminished safe-haven demand, putting pressure on gold prices [3] - Upcoming US PCE inflation data and GDP revisions are expected to be key variables influencing market pricing and gold's short-term trajectory [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased volatility due to fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with some institutional investors locking in annual returns and rankings [1] - The upcoming important meeting is anticipated to set the tone for next year's economic policies, potentially catalyzing a new market rally [1] - The A-share market is expected to consolidate around resistance levels, with a continued rebalancing of market styles, where cyclical and technology sectors are likely to perform alternately [1] Group 2 - The recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for precious metal prices, particularly silver, which is currently experiencing a short squeeze [3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing significantly due to increased investment enthusiasm and supportive policies, with a focus on lithium battery and energy storage sectors [3] Group 3 - Nearly 30 companies in the robotics industry have submitted applications to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which could enhance the industry’s concentration in the market [5] - The shipping sector is witnessing strong stock price increases due to rising international shipping rates and supply-demand imbalances, influenced by geopolitical factors and climate change [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around the 4100-point mark, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market [11] - The ChiNext Index has entered a downward channel, while micro-cap stocks are showing independent upward trends, suggesting potential opportunities in specific segments [11]

以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪缓和 铝价高位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 基本面来看,截至 1 月 21 日，SMM 进口铝土矿指数报 65.85 美元/吨， 较上一交易日下跌 0.01 美元/吨；SMM 几内亚 FOB ...