美国股市周一因劳动节休市，市场焦点转向美联储理事人选与利率政策动向。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示， 数名美联储主席候选人同时也被考虑填补央行理事会的两个空缺席位。他指出，自己已与川普总统详细讨论过候 选人的条件与资格，并强调川普对美联储「怀有极大敬意」。至于市场对川普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克的反 应，贝森特认为债市与汇市皆维持平静。 根据CME「美联储观察」工具，9月会议中降息25个基点的机率达89.6%，维持利率不变的机率为10.4%。展望10 月，市场对降息25与50个基点的预期几乎平分秋色，分别为47.3%与47.9%。 库克理事的留任概率从罢免传闻时的35%回升至62% 白宫特别强调不寻求颠覆现行货币政策框架 劳动节休市背后的政策暗流 9月2日美国劳动节休市期间，CME美联储观察工具显示89.6%的降息预期创年内新高。这种市场共识的形成源于 三重压力： 经济数据疲软：8月ISM制造业PMI连续三个月萎缩，核心PCE物价指数增速放缓至2.8% 全球央行转向：欧央行6月启动降息后，新兴市场货币宽松政策持续加码 政治干预隐忧：特朗普政府被曝考虑替换3名美联储理事，引发政策独立性争议 贝森特声明中的权力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows signs of stability and gradual improvement in performance, with a focus on structural opportunities amid a backdrop of changing monetary policy expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major stock indices experienced narrow fluctuations, with the CSI A500 index slightly rising [1] - As of 9:45 AM, the A500 ETF from Southern Asset Management increased by 0.42%, with notable gains in stocks such as Midea Group (up 2.63%), Kweichow Moutai (up 1.49%), and China Merchants Bank (up 1.00%) [1] Group 2: Financial Results - By August 31, 5,432 listed companies had disclosed their semi-annual reports for 2025, revealing total operating revenue of 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [1] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 reached 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an acceleration of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's full-year growth [1] - Nearly 60% of companies reported positive revenue growth, and over 75% achieved profitability, with 2,475 companies showing positive net profit growth and 1,943 companies experiencing both revenue and net profit growth [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The overall industrial structure of listed companies in China continues to optimize, with a solid foundation for internal growth and a clearer focus on technological development [1] - Analysts anticipate that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may lead to an improvement in risk appetite, suggesting a shift towards a fundamentally driven market in the medium term [1] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a rotational state of hotspots, with recommendations to focus on structural allocation opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The spot gold price has surpassed $3500 per ounce, reaching a new historical high of $3501.030, with a daily increase of 0.74% [1] - The London gold price also showed significant movement, with a peak of $3501.880 during the trading session [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with Zhou Shengsheng priced at ¥1041 per gram, up by ¥16, and Lao Miao gold at ¥1034, up by ¥11 [3] Group 2 - On September 1, the international gold price rose significantly, with December futures reaching a peak of $3550 per ounce, marking a historical high [4] - The weakening US dollar, which hit a five-week low, has contributed to the rise in international gold prices, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - The US job market's weakening is a factor in the rising expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the upcoming non-farm payroll data being a key indicator for economic health [7]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a strong rally on the first trading day of September, with gold prices nearing $3,500 and silver breaking the $40 mark, reaching $40.754 [1][3] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a surge in photovoltaic demand, with silver's industrial demand projected to account for 59% of global consumption in 2024 [3][4] - Silver's price is expected to target the 2011 high of $49.8 after breaking the $40 resistance level, indicating it is still in a phase of catching up [1][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut has contributed to the bullish trend in precious metals, with an 87.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September 17 [3] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, is expected to remain strong, with approximately 17% of total silver demand coming from solar energy applications [3][4] - Historical trends suggest that during precious metal bull markets, silver often experiences accelerated gains towards the end, indicating potential future price movements [4][5]

Group 1 - The A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, with significant gains in stocks such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Western Gold, and Zhuhai Group [1] - Gold and silver prices are on the rise, with spot gold prices surpassing $3,500 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1] - Analysts attribute the positive momentum in precious metals to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, including India's active selling of U.S. government bonds and increasing gold reserves, as well as the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes Baiyin Nonferrous up 10.08% with a market cap of 31.5 billion, Western Gold up 10% with a market cap of 22 billion, and Zhuhai Group up 8.82% with a market cap of 16.7 billion [2] - Other notable performers include Hunan Baiyin up 7.59%, Ding Sheng New Materials up 6.68%, and Tianshan Aluminum up 5.01% [2] - The MACD golden cross signal formation indicates a strong upward trend for these stocks [2]

降息预期升温给予金价支撑，9月1日，国际金价高开高走，盘中冲上3557.1美元/盎司，再次刷新历史 高位。 国内期货市场上，沪金主力合约跟随大涨，盘中突破802元/克，一日涨超16元/克。消费端，周大福、 老凤祥今日零售金饰报价分别为1027元/克、1025元/克，较上周五分别上调12元~14元/克。社交平台 上，"看中的60克金镯一夜之间贵了近1000元"社交网络上一位消费者发布动态称。 同样刷新历史高点的还有白银期货价格，9月1日上午，COMEX白银盘中最高触及41.64美元/盎司，年 内累计涨幅41%，跑赢黄金34%的同期涨幅。 黄金、白银的9月"开门红"究竟是一场短暂的情绪狂欢，还是新一轮牛市的序幕？ 谁在点火？ 对于这轮黄金价格大涨，美国银行分析师指出，除了美联储降息预期强化推高了国际金价，近期美联储 理事被免职风波削弱市场对美元资产信心，避险资金涌入对金价形成支撑。 "具体看来，近日在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，鲍威尔发言明显转鸽，讲话市场对于9月降息预期迅速 升高。" 永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇对第一财经分析称，本次鲍威尔的发言被视为为9月重启降息打 开大门，黄金价格在消化了前期美国经济数据反 ...

吴坤金 有色金属日报 2025-9-2 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 锌 周一沪锌指数收涨 0.13%至 22168 元/吨，单边交易总持仓 22.78 万手。截至周一下午 15：00，伦锌 3S 较前日同期涨 33.5 至 2830 美元/吨，总持仓 19.15 万手。SMM0#锌锭均价 22100 元/吨，上海基 差-35 元/吨，天津基差-85 元/吨，广东基差-75 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index is under pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence, while global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. With policies to expand service consumption and the extension of the tariff truce between China and the US, short - term domestic risk appetite has risen. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally [2]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends. For example, stock indices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, treasury bonds to fluctuate at high levels, and different commodity sectors have their own characteristics such as black metals being weak, non - ferrous metals being slightly stronger, energy and chemicals fluctuating, and precious metals being strong at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakening US dollar index and rising global risk appetite are due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was still below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption are to be introduced, and the extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and increase domestic easing expectations. Short - term macro upward drivers are strengthening marginally [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Driven by sectors like precious metals, metals, and biomedicine, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the improvement in manufacturing PMI and policy support, short - term domestic risk appetite has increased. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and short - term operation is to be cautiously bullish [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, and market trading volume was low. Although the PMI in August increased by 0.1 percentage points, it was still below the boom - bust line. Real - world demand is weakening, steel inventories are increasing, and the probability of steel mills resuming production next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. Iron water production is expected to further decline this week, and steel mills' procurement is cautious. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have increased this week, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia has little change, and there are new production capacity plans in October. The production of silicon iron has cost support, and the reduction in production is expected to be limited. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and profits are declining. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply has slightly increased, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits have slightly increased. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a new high. However, domestic copper demand is expected to weaken marginally, and although the Fed's rate cut in September may briefly boost copper prices, the strong copper price is hard to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum closing price fell and then rebounded slightly. Aluminum inventory has increased, and LME aluminum inventory is at a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside space for aluminum prices is limited, and in the short term, it will maintain a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is expected to be more abundant. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside space [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. Lithium carbonate is slowly destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. Rumors of industry restructuring have raised market expectations, but production in August was close to 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical risks. India has refuted the US pressure to stop importing oil from Russia, and Ukraine has attacked more Russian refineries. OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss supply policies, and the market expects the organization to suspend production increases. The spot price has a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to Indian tariffs and OPEC+ production decisions [13]. - **Asphalt**: The slight increase in oil prices has driven up asphalt costs. Asphalt itself is still weak, with a slightly declining basis. Inventory de - stocking is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term, with attention to changes in oil costs [14]. - **PX**: The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the PX market, but due to low PTA开工, the PX price is still weak. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has slightly decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [14]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工 has been at a low level due to plant problems, but the high basis has weakened, and processing fees have recovered. Demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with attention to oil prices and downstream demand [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas plant problems, imports are expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased significantly. The load of synthetic gas plants is high, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, with attention to downstream开工 recovery and oil costs [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price has slightly decreased due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and short - fiber开工 has rebounded slightly. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted at high levels in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO plants provide some support, but the oversupply pattern remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The device开工 has increased, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Demand is weak, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: Current maintenance has relieved supply pressure, and downstream demand is slowly increasing, with inventory decreasing. As maintenance ends, supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand growth [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT market was closed overnight. Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectations for new - crop US soybeans in August, and export sales data have improved, the net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased. However, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not overly optimistic, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, with more imported soybeans being released, the risk preference for protein meal may decrease. There is still a large pressure for short - term inventory accumulation, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in a peak production season, and exports are limited. It is expected that Indonesia will repair its low inventory, while Malaysia will face inventory accumulation pressure. The overall boost to oils and fats is limited. Domestic palm oil may be under pressure, while soybean and rapeseed oils have sufficient supply and demand and may see a repair of the low - valued market [17][18]. - **Corn**: In September, attention should be paid to the new - crop corn listing. There is no concentrated arrival pressure this year, and port and downstream inventories are low. The expected opening price of new - crop corn in the main production areas may be slightly higher than last year, and the main C2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [18]. - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. The pressure of large - weight pig sales has been released, and there is a seasonal replenishment for secondary fattening. With the traditional holiday stocking period, the pig price should not be overly pessimistic [19].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is a key driver, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and a high likelihood of a cumulative 100 basis point cut by fall 2026 [2] - The weakening dollar is exacerbated by trade policy changes, with the dollar index hitting a five-week low of 97.52, influenced by a court ruling against Trump's tariffs [4] - Strong industrial demand and tight supply are driving silver prices, supported by a low interest rate environment that reduces holding costs [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold has formed a strong bullish trend with five consecutive daily gains, supported by the moving average system, with key support levels at 3440 and 3437 [9] - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold is in a five-wave upward structure, with attention needed on potential resistance at 3500 and 3520 [10] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Rising global political risks, including the rise of far-right parties in Europe, are increasing safe-haven demand for precious metals [6] - Investor sensitivity to geopolitical risks is heightened, further boosting demand for gold and silver as hedges against uncertainty [6]

2025年1—8月，贸易摩擦加剧、地缘政治局势以及美联储降息预期等因素相继主导黄金行情，黄金价格 呈现大幅拉升态势，伦敦金价格刷新历史高位，触及3500美元／盎司，沪金主力合约创历史新高，触及 841.28元／克，随后开始高位震荡蓄势。1—8月，伦敦金价格整体在2614~3500.12美元／盎司区间偏强 运行，涨幅超过31%；沪金整体在626~841.3元／克区间偏强运行，涨幅接近27%。 展望2025年剩余时间，美联储宽松周期将重启，全球贸易关系难实质性好转，地缘政治局势依然紧张， 叠加美国财政赤字与债务泡沫继续累积等因素影响，黄金延续偏强行情的可能性大。 多重因素引发美联储降息预期升温，对黄金形成利好影响。第一，美联储官员鸽派转向加速。美联储主 席鲍威尔鸽派转向即将拉开美联储再度降息的序幕。第二，美联储独立性再受冲击。一方面，美国政府 多次强调要提前解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，然后直接参与解雇美联储理事库克，但无论鲍威尔和库克是否 被解雇，美联储的独立性均受到较大冲击。随着特朗普政府任命越来越多的美联储官员，美联储即将开 启新一轮的降息周期，并且降息幅度可能比预期更大。第三，美国就业数据表现偏弱促使美联储降息预 ...