Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a stronger US CPI is likely to exert downward pressure on gold prices, while potential pullbacks may present buying opportunities [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On July 14, international gold opened high at $3363.64 per ounce, reached a three-week high of $3374.55, but ultimately closed at $3343.27, down $14.49 or 0.43% from the previous close [1]. - The trading range during the day was between $3353 and $3375, with a daily fluctuation of $33.66 [1]. Economic Indicators - The market is anticipating the release of the US June CPI data, which is expected to show an increase, indicating stronger inflation and potentially reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, thereby negatively impacting gold prices [5][6]. - The average tariff rate between China and the US has increased significantly from 3% to 145% from 2018 to 2025, contributing to ongoing market uncertainties [5]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, with potential risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 if key support levels are breached [8]. - Current trends remain above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook unless this support is broken [8]. - The weekly chart shows gold prices maintaining above the mid-band, with indicators suggesting a potential for a pullback but still presenting buying opportunities near support levels [10]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3339 or $3330 and resistance at $3355 or $3365 for gold, while silver has support at $38.00 or $37.65 and resistance at $38.60 or $39.00 [11].

全球形势只要不稳定，那么国际黄金价格就会大幅调整。如果是中东地区不稳定，那么国际原油价格就会大幅调整。现在中东局势动荡影响、俄乌冲突扩 大化，美国内政不稳，美联储降息预期在增大，所有不稳定因素叠加一起，导致了国际黄金价格和原油价格一起跳动。 在14日，国际原油价格一夜大涨7%，纽约原油期货价格大涨到每桶78美元，国际黄金价格一周上涨累计超过3.5%，又到了每盎司3400美元以上。之后虽 然有调整，但是站在高位的趋势已经奠定。那么未来黄金价格和原油价格如何变化呢？ 在中东地区，以色列率先动手，先炸了伊朗的所谓核设施核，针对伊朗高层军事领导人采取清除行动。伊朗后续进行报复，直接炸了以色列的能源设施。 后续以色列会不会也同样，去轰炸伊朗的原油设施？最终两国都走向了破坏对方军事目标和能源目标的老路上。 不过伊朗是石油输出国组织第三大输出国，也是全球前十大的原油产油国，如果原油设施遭到破坏，那对全球原油价格形成的影响巨大。而且伊朗还可以 掌控霍尔木兹海峡，这可是中东多个石油产出国的命脉，他们的总共出产，占了国际原油市场60%以上的份额。 而国际原油价格直接影响了国内成品油价格的波动，17日成品油价上调已成定局，仅仅是国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly since April, driven by easing tariff concerns and renewed narratives around AI and computing power, but faces challenges with the upcoming earnings season and liquidity risks in Q3 [1][2] - Analysts predict a notable divergence in sector performance, with a slowdown in earnings growth expected compared to Q1 2025, particularly in the energy sector, which is forecasted to decline by 26%, while technology remains strong with expected growth of 16.6% in information technology [2] - The S&P 500 index's Shiller PE ratio stands at 38.12, nearing historical highs, indicating that the market is currently overvalued, and future valuation increases may be limited [3] Group 2 - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will likely implement two rate cuts this year, but there is increasing disagreement about the timing of these cuts, particularly for the September meeting [5][8] - The upcoming debt issuance wave and the large scale of maturing U.S. debt are anticipated to create liquidity shocks that could impact the stock market's performance in Q3 [9][10] - Historical data suggests that following the lifting of the debt ceiling in June 2023, the market experienced a significant bond issuance peak, leading to increased yields and a subsequent decline in the S&P 500 index [10]

在月初出人意料的强劲非农就业报告发布之后，随着上周末特朗普发信函给各国威胁进一步加征关税令 通胀前景面临重大不确定性，全球交易员们对于美联储降息预期可谓出现大幅降温，这也导致国债期货 交易员们一直在解除对于美国国债市场的一些大额看涨押注。 美联储自去年12月以来一直维系基准利率不变，以鲍威尔为代表的美联储官员均在采访中透露出谨慎 的"观望立场"，而不是像沃勒与鲍曼那样支持7月降息。鲍威尔上月对国会立法者们表示，若不是由于 关税带来的未来价格前景不确定性，基于通胀下降的情况，美联储现在本应已经开始降息。他也警告 称，目前尚无必要仓促调整利率政策。此外，鲍威尔还表示，预计今年夏天会看到通胀读数上升。不过 鲍威尔在近期的讲话中也坦言，通胀的上升幅度、时间点与持续性存在高度不确定性。 SOFR期权市场的交易数据显示，期权交易员们普遍押注今年美联储首次降息将是9月，并且交易员们预 计今年累计降息50个基点，每次降息25个基点——押注第二次降息出现在12月。 智通财经APP获悉，2026年美联储FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，在支持美联储重新 开启降息路径之前，她希望看到通胀进一步显著回落。哈马克周一在接 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.7.14 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 铝锭：淡季小幅累库 铝价区间整理 Ø 逻辑：上周铝价偏强震荡。宏观上美国总统特朗普宣布对加拿大和其他贸易伙伴征收新关税，贸易紧张局势再度升温。 美联储理事沃勒周四重申了本月降息的可能性，投资者预计年底前美联储将降息50个基点。基本面来看，据SMM数据， 截至上周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11082万吨/年，运行总产能8857万吨/年，全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周下 调0.05个百分点至79.92%，其中山东、广西地区出现部分企业检修，运行产能有所下滑。海外消息几内亚要求今后50% 的铝土矿出口必须由悬挂几内亚国旗的船舶运输，政府已成立本国航运公司专门负责铝土矿运输。2025年截至目前，几 内亚铝土矿出口同比增长37%。截至6月底氧化铝企业厂内库存累库8.1万吨。需求端高温淡季、铝价高企、利润空间不 足、下游需求疲软等因素影响下，上周铝加工行业开工环比上周再度下降0.1个百分点至58.6%。据SMM统计，7月14 日国内主流消费地电解 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Fundamentally, the Fed's policy shift to easing after its June meeting minutes, with most expecting two rate cuts this year and a high probability in September, boosts precious metal prices. Trade tensions and tariff policies increase the demand and safe - haven premium for gold, while silver benefits from strong industrial demand and financial attributes due to a 50% tariff on copper and Fed rate - cut expectations [2]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories declined, global gold reserves continued to rise, China's central bank increased gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month, ETF fund inflows into gold and silver slowed, and hedge funds increased their long - position in gold [2]. - For strategies, the price of Shanghai gold is long - term bullish, with short - term high - level oscillations. Mid - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver shows a slight short - term increase, and mid - term, it is advisable to hold long positions or buy when it dips to the lower edge of the oscillation range [2]. Summaries by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: The spot price of London gold increased by 0.61%, COMEX gold futures by 0.71%, while the Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 0.33%. The spot price of London silver rose by 1.67%, COMEX silver futures by 5.22%, and the Shanghai silver main contract by 1.36%. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased by 0.10% and 0.87% respectively. COMEX gold total positions increased by 1.25%, and speculative net long positions by 0.49%. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 0.47%, and speculative net long positions by 7.70% [5]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: Both the domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios decreased last week, approaching 80 but still significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price is undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper may increase silver demand, and the silver price has upward potential [8]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spread**: The domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver narrowed last week. Affected by US tariff policies, market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and precious metal prices were boosted [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rebounded slightly after hitting a low but remained below 98. A stronger US dollar exerts some upward pressure on precious metals, while trade tensions support precious metal prices [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries increased last week. Market expectations of a looser Fed policy provide a lower - bound support for precious metal prices [14]. - **Inflation and Fed Rate - Cut Expectations**: In May, the rebound of commodity inflation was lower than expected. The Fed's internal views on tariff - driven inflation are divided, and most expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, which supports precious metal prices [19]. - **US Key Economic Data**: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the service PMI was 50.8, both better than expected. Retail and food service sales declined year - on - year. The core PCE price index in May increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the PCE price index by 2.3%, and CPI inflation remained stable. In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, non - farm employment increased by 147,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. In May, job vacancies unexpectedly rose to 7.77 million [22][25][28]. - **Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends**: 32% of central banks plan to increase gold investment in the next 12 - 24 months. In Q1 2025, global central banks net - bought 244 tons of gold. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for eight consecutive months, and central bank gold - buying supports precious metal prices [29]. - **Fed June Meeting Minutes**: There were significant differences among participants regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Most expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, with a high probability in September [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. The US sent tariff letters to trading partners, with a 50% tariff on Brazilian products. The 50% tariff on copper provides an opportunity for silver to make up for lost ground [31]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 10,000 lots to 203,000 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 49,000 lots to 58,500 lots [34]. - **ETF Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 110.22 tons to 14,758.52 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs slowed [35]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: Last week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 36.7471 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.87% to 494.9197 million ounces. Silver has room for continuous price increases due to industrial demand [39]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In Q1 2025, global gold demand increased slightly year - on - year, and the global silver shortage is expected to narrow in 2025 [43]. - **This Week's Key Events**: This week, important events include China's press conference on H1 2025 import and export, US CPI, PPI, and other economic data, which will provide more basis for the Fed's monetary policy [45][46].

避险情绪再起，贵金属震荡偏多 摘 要： 美国总统特朗普宣布，将从 8 月 1 日起对加拿大产品征收 35% 的关税。特朗普还透露，将于下周一就俄罗斯问题发表"重大声明"。 俄乌冲突问题，导致原油大涨。地缘政治及关税问题使得避险需求 再起，黄金再度受到支撑，并带动白银有所上行。虽然通胀问题的 担忧对美联储降息的具体时点变得更加扑朔迷离，但是美白银依然 选择突破震荡区间上行。贵金属的影响因素变得更加复杂。 中国物流与采购联合会数据显示，6 月全球制造业采购经理指 数为 49.5%，较上月上升 0.3 个百分点，连续两个月环比上升。美 联储公布联邦公开市场委员会 6 月 17 日至 18 日的会议纪要。会议 纪要显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至 4.5%之间，与会者一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期 指标表明经济活动继续稳步扩张。美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台 上发布致 8 个国家领导人有关加征关税的信函。其中，巴西将被征 收 50%的关税，利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和斯里兰卡将被征收 30%的关税，文莱和摩尔多瓦的税率是 25%，菲律宾的税率是 20%。 新税率将从 8 月 1 日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.06%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.11%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war enters a new stage; economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases; strong employment suppresses interest - rate cut expectations. [1] - **Safe - Haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed officials' views on interest - rate prospects differ due to different expectations of how tariffs may affect inflation. Strong US employment growth has eliminated the possibility of a near - term Fed interest - rate cut. The market now expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound, and the strong RMB has suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are $67,132.36 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%. [8] - **US Treasury and Dollar Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.60%, the US dollar index is 97.86, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, and the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.02. [8][10] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68%. [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is - 0.50%, the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls monthly change is 14.70 million. [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, the VIX index is 17.65, the CRB commodity index is 303.52, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1706. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is presented in a table, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

特朗普酝酿金融政变，逼宫鲍威尔，降息到底还有多远？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播 间 相关链接 美联储降息到底还有多远？ ...

关税还未传导至物价 关税似乎对市场毫无影响，原因在于明显的通胀暂未发生。摩根士丹利表示，从企业反馈来看，关税影响领域实际上出现了一些通缩迹象，这可能令部分人 感到意外。 利率将下降、就业强劲和大型企业盈利能力高是主要支撑因素。 截至上周五（7月11日）收盘，在中国境内上市的跨境美股ETF再度回到历史高点附近（计入美元贬值的因素），纳斯达克ETF、美国50ETF的净值分别报 2.039和1.3。 境内的ETF走势基本与近期美股的走势同步，科技巨头再扛大旗。7月10日，英伟达成为首个市值突破4万亿美元的公司，高盛近期更上调了美股的目标位， 将未来12个月的点位预测调至6900点（此前为6500点），利率将下降、就业强劲和企业盈利能力较高（特别是大型股）是主要支撑因素。 早前，各界一度认为，关税将严重影响美国企业的利润，并推高通胀，导致美联储难以降息。如今，"对等"关税的不确定性仍然高企，随着美国开始征收 10%的基础关税，数据显示关税收入开始上升，但通胀却未有上涨迹象，5月CPI连续四个月低于预期，这也令美股逆势走高。为何关税并未传导至通胀， 甚至出现了一些通缩效应？美股的复苏能持续多久？ 513300.SH[纳 ...