RJO Futures高级市场策略师John Caruso在接受采访时表示："回头看，美债收益率下行、油价下跌、铜价大跌， 这些宏观指标正在共同传递出全球经济承压的明显信号。" 智通财经APP获悉，4月即将结束之际，铜价在本周三上演"跳水式"暴跌，在一个交易日内的跌幅竟超过了整个4 月的累计跌幅，给原本已疲弱的全球市场情绪再添一层阴霾。作为重要的工业金属，铜一向被视为全球经济健康 的"风向标"。铜价的剧烈下挫，可能意味着投资者对经济前景的预期愈发悲观。 根据道琼斯市场数据，周三铜期货主力合约(7月交割)下跌5.4%，收于每磅4.61美元，创下自4月11日以来的最低 收盘水平，并录得三周多来最大的单日跌幅。 Caruso指出，当前的走势像极了"W型复苏"的前兆，即"二次探底式"经济复苏，这意味着经济可能在初步复苏后 再次陷入衰退。"这种走势比我们常见的'V型'复苏更加难以应对，是一个危险的结构性信号。" 在整个4月份，铜价累计下跌了8.4%，创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。尽管如此，铜价年内仍上涨了 14.5%。 铜价下跌背后的"宏观焦虑" Zaye Capital Markets首席投资官Naeem ...

4月份，全球贸易摩擦加剧，PVC跳空低开，跌破5000元/吨大关，但是自此之后在4900～5100元/吨区间 持续震荡。目前在PVC检修及成本支撑下暂未继续下破，但是需求及出口压制下，反弹阻力也较大，短 期或继续维持底部震荡走势。 检修增多供应压力缓解 春季检修启动后，PVC检修量明显增多，开工率大幅下滑，供应压力缓解。目前PVC开工率已经降至 80%以下，周度产量降至45万吨附近，其中电石法开工率为年内新低。后期PVC检修计划依然较多，预 计开工率有望继续维持低位水平，供应压力暂时不大。 出口利多或减弱 亏损加剧成本支撑增强 PVC供需失衡明显，价格处于10年低位附近。生产企业利润大幅压缩后，亏损成为常态，其中外采电石 法亏损在600元/吨附近。不过，PVC生产企业多为氯碱一体化企业，评估利润需考虑烧碱情况。前期烧 碱利润可观，基本能够覆盖PVC亏损，但是近期烧碱持续下跌后，利润大幅压缩。目前PVC和烧碱综合 利润已经出现亏损情况，成本支撑作用有望逐渐体现。 弱需求成为常态 PVC下游需求结构中，80%与房地产相关，而近几年房地产处于弱周期阶段，导致PVC需求持续低迷， PVC成为表现最差的工业品之一。虽然 ...

并不忘再补上一句，"如果不行，我们还有后招，禁运也不是没有可能。" 美国似乎在期待中国让步，但问题是，这一招真能奏效吗？禁运一旦启动，全球经济的反噬会让美国承受得起吗？ 美国财长"禁航威胁" 长贝森特他认为中国应该主动降温，迈出第一步，他强调，中国对美出口额是美国对华出口的五倍，基于这一差距，他认为目前的125%关税 政策是不现实的，无法持续下去。 贝森特还进一步威胁，如果局势恶化，升级的选项可能包括实施禁运，但他也表示希望这种情况不会发生。 前言 4月28日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受CNBC采访时拿出了"升级版威胁"，中国应该主动"降温"。 中美聚焦——美财长:希望中方率先缓和贸易紧张局势 贝森特似乎拿出了一副"铁证"，用中国对美出口额是美国对华出口五倍这个数字来说明关税不可能继续维持。 但问题是，这个看似有力的论据背后，其实漏洞百出，逻辑不太成立，首先，中美之间的贸易结构本就不对等。 中国凭借完善的产业链，生产了大量的日常消费品和电子产品，而这些恰恰是美国消费者离不开的东西。 说白了，如果没有中国的这些产品，美国的消费者可能得付出更高的价格，甚至有些商品根本买不到。 而美国在半导体等多个领域对中国设置的种 ...

Group 1 - In April, copper prices initially fell to 72,000 yuan/ton before recovering to around 77,000 yuan/ton due to rising market risk aversion and subsequent easing of trade tensions by the U.S. government [2] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with 15 to 18 key partners, with India likely to be the first to reach an agreement, while the trade negotiations with China are intensifying [3] - The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, with processing fees declining significantly, and major mining companies have lowered their production guidance for 2025 [4] Group 2 - The import of scrap copper from the U.S. has dropped sharply, with March imports falling to 22,000 tons, a 29% decrease, as China imposes high tariffs on U.S. goods [5] - Social copper inventory has decreased for eight consecutive weeks, with a total of 155,100 tons, reflecting a tightening supply and increasing domestic demand [6] - The domestic copper market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with increased production in the face of limited imports, and the operating rate of major copper rod enterprises has risen to 79.56% [6] Group 3 - Overall, the copper market is facing weak supply, but demand is marginally improving due to domestic policies and overseas exports, although the sustainability of this demand recovery is in question [8] - The high tariffs imposed by both the U.S. and China are expected to severely impact consumer demand for durable goods, with potential negative effects on future demand [8] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be crucial for copper prices, which may continue to rise if negotiations go smoothly, but could face downward pressure if they stall [8]

在经历了六天的上涨之后，美国股市似乎进入回调。贸易紧张局势、疲软的美国经济数据和超微电脑业 绩预警下，市场不确定性加剧。 30日周一，美国股指期货下跌，欧股开盘上涨，欧元对美元小幅上涨，美债维稳，现货黄金跌0.9%。 本周，美国将公布非农和通胀数据，Meta、高通、苹果、微软、亚马逊等科技巨头相机公布财报。这 将为投资者提供有关经济状况的更多信息。 随着贸易摩擦的加剧，多家公司撤回了业绩指引。General Motors Co.和JetBlue Airways Corp.加入了这 一行列，而United Parcel Service Inc.更是宣布将在今年裁员20000人。 Mercedes-Benz Group AG也由于 贸易壁垒的不确定性而撤回了今年的业绩展望。 Saxo Markets 的首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示，市场正在寻找新的催化剂，投资者正在等待关键的 宏观数据和大型科技公司的财报。 【17:49】 现货白银日内走低，现跌2.00%，报32.27美元/盎司。 【16:30】 WTI原油日内跌幅达2.0%，报59.2美元/桶。 美股盘前，标准普尔 500 指数期货下跌 0.4 ...

导读 2025年4月22日，由中国人民大学深圳研究院（社会科学高等研究院（深圳））主办，中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）、中国人民大学深圳金融高 等研究院共同承办的"人大深圳社科沙龙"（第49期）暨"大金融思想沙龙"（总第252期）在线上成功举行，本次会议的主题为： "全球经济变局下的人民 币汇率观察"。 IMI研究员、中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授陆利平发表主题报告， 中国人民大学经济学院原党委常务副书记兼副院长王晋斌，国家发展和改革委员会 宏观经济研究院研究员曲凤杰，北京航空航天大学经济管理学院金融学教授谭小芬，华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜等嘉宾出席会议并参与 研讨。本次沙龙由 中国人民大学财政金融学院教授张顺明主持。 主题报告 沙龙第一环节，由 IMI研究员、中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授陆利平发表主题报告，提出三方面观点，一是近期全球经济格局面临重大变化，美国对 华关税政策对中国出口和经济增长带来不确定性，人民币汇率承压。美元指数持续走弱及美国经济衰退预期持续作用于汇率。二是贸易摩擦是影响汇率走 势的重要因素，本轮摩擦中人民币短期贬值后迅速反弹，波动性明显增强。三是人民币汇率同时面临多 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.674 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.62% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 863 million, down 0.28% year-on-year [2] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were 1.61, a decline of 0.28% compared to the previous year [2] - The weighted average return on equity was 21.80%, down 4.01% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 606 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.09% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 118 million, down 19.58% year-on-year [2] - Basic earnings per share for Q1 2025 were 0.22, a decline of 19.58% compared to the same period last year [2] - The weighted average return on equity for Q1 2025 was 2.75%, down 1.12% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Product Overview - The company's main business is divided into two core segments: compressors and vacuum pumps [2] - Refrigeration products include commercial central air conditioning compressors, frozen and refrigerated compressors, and heat pump compressors [3] - Air compressor products are essential in various industries, including engineering machinery, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and electronics [3] - The company is expanding into oil-free air compressor markets, targeting industries with high air quality requirements [3] - Vacuum products are primarily used in the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, with plans to expand into lithium batteries, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The 2025 revenue forecast is 3.301 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 10.15% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 692 million, down 19.81% year-on-year [3] - The company's performance in the U.S. market is currently low, with minimal direct impact from U.S.-China tariffs [3] - Future trade tensions may adversely affect export business [3]

| Clarkers | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 唐策略东 | | | | | | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | 研究院:李泽矩 | 投资咨询号: Z0000116 | | | | | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 行业板块 | | | | 短期建议股指期货轻仓观望,静待市场方向明朗。由于五一期间海外不确 | 股指 | 震荡 | 定性较大,加上当前期权波动率处于较低位置,节前可考虑介入股指期权 | | | | | 双买策略。 | 宏观金融 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | 国债 | 震荡 | | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | 白银 | 農汤 日治 | | | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期谨防价格回调风险。 | 農汤 | 铜 | 全球贸易摩擦虽仍有不确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Energy is in the process of replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a task that will take several years, following significant withdrawals by the Biden administration [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Petroleum Reserve Replenishment - Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized the Biden administration for irresponsibly selling off the SPR, stating that the rapid release has damaged energy infrastructure [1]. - The Department is currently working on replenishing four SPR sites and repairing two others, while seeking additional funding to expedite these efforts [1]. - In March, Wright indicated that the Department was preparing to purchase $20 billion worth of crude oil as the first step in replenishing the national SPR [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the multi-year large-scale crude oil purchasing plan by the U.S. will provide a long-term stable demand source for the market, potentially supporting oil prices to some extent [3]. - As of now, the WTI crude oil price is approximately $61 per barrel, having declined nearly 14% since the beginning of the year [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its global oil demand growth forecast, predicting a 30% drop to 730,000 barrels per day by 2025, and further slowing to 690,000 barrels per day by 2026 [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面拖累，焦煤继续探底 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求存见顶预期，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月 29 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约继续下挫，突 ...